Ultimately, all NBA teams have the same goal, which is to win a championship. While this is a far more realistic goal for some teams than for others, every team has made moves to improve or reshape its roster. They picked players in the draft, signed free agents, and traded for who they believed to be the missing piece. Big names have been on the move, and costly contracts have been handed out, all to get teams one step closer to a championship.
Some teams went all out, and others kept a low profile, quietly pushing their chips around. Accordingly, some teams have more to lose than the rest of the league. So, let’s look at the four NBA teams with the riskiest boom-or-bust scenarios.
NBA Team #4: Dallas Mavericks
At last season’s trade deadline, the Dallas Mavericks gave up most of their depth and defensive talent when they traded for Kyrie Irving. It was somewhat of a risky move, but we can’t really blame them too much for going through with it. When you have the chance to pair two of the most talented scorers in the game, you do it, even if one of them has a reputation for being flighty and unreliable.
There was no guarantee that Irving would not look at the roster around him and decide to move on during the summer. To his credit, Irving was once again not the problem when he came to Dallas. Nevertheless, they tanked out of the postseason.
The team was too thin. They couldn’t guard anyone. There was a lot of work still to be done if they wanted to build a championship contender around Luka Doncic. Work has been done this summer. They brought in Grant Williams as a defensive stopper and drafted well to avoid another disappointing season. It wasn’t just that no team likes to lose. The Mavericks cannot afford to have another season like that.
Doncic wants to compete. He was not thrilled when the Mavericks decided to tank, and rightly so. He is one of the best young point guards in the game. Why shouldn’t he be competing at the highest level? When you have someone like that on your squad, it is your responsibility to build a playoff team around him. If the Mavericks continue like they finished last season with clunky offense and non-existent defense, they not only run the risk of being on the wrong end of a bad trade, but Doncic might also consider if he wouldn’t have a better chance at competing somewhere else.
The clock is ticking. Doncic has been loyal so far, but how much patience does he have left? It is hard to believe that he would want to be a part of a rebuild, but if things do not work out and Irving has to be moved, it would be difficult to retool around Doncic with the few assets they have left. The Dallas Mavericks have a lot to lose next season if they do not figure things out quickly.
NBA Team #3: Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers have been in this conversation for a while now. In the past five years, they have never been able to build a team around Joel Embiid that made it past the second round of the playoffs. For a while, Ben Simmons was the scapegoat. He hit the brakes on the 76ers’ postseason success, but that excuse is not good enough anymore. Embiid is All-Star co-star number two now, and James Harden already wants to leave.
The MVP, however, wants to win, and I wouldn’t blame him if he didn’t believe that the 76ers could give him that opportunity. Tyrese Maxey is the only reliable high-level piece they have put around him, and he hasn’t been offered an extension yet. Time is running out to build a contender in Philadelphia. Without a committed Harden or another All-Star-level player, that will be difficult to do next season, which puts everyone who was involved in trading for Harden in a tough spot.
Embiid has said publicly that he wants to win a championship, and even if Harden plays for the 76ers next season, he might not be enough to get them over the hump. The rest of the league will be watching and waiting for the 76ers to construct another early playoff exit, putting together trade packages in case Embiid decides that he wants to play somewhere else.
If next season does not go well, the 76ers might very well risk losing the reigning MVP.
NBA Team #2: Phoenix Suns
New Suns owner Mat Ishbia is going all in. Former Coach of the Year Monty Williams has been replaced, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal have been acquired in blockbuster trades, and the Suns’ payroll is massive. Chris Paul has been shipped off to the Warriors, and most of the Suns former supporting cast is now playing for the Nets. The 2021 Finals team has been completely dismantled.
Getting Kevin Durant will never be considered a bad move, but he and Beal are both aging. There is not much time left to build a contender around them, especially considering their injury histories, and the Suns’ roster still has some holes. They are very top-heavy, but teams that want to win a championship need the right supporting pieces around them. Sacrificing depth for star power could prove to be a risky move.
Age is already pressuring the Suns—they have to win soon or not win at all, it seems—and so is money. For the last couple of years, the Suns have always been regarded as somewhat of a threat in the West, even though they never made it past the second round after their Finals run in 2021. Now, they have to be real competition for everyone in the West and a looming threat to whoever plans to come out of the East. You cannot spend this much money on a team only for it to flame out in the second round again.
Not only would it be bad management if this team failed, but it would also have consequences for the future. Pretty much all their assets are gone; Beal’s contract is tough to move, especially if he does not want to be traded; and Booker is the face of the franchise. That only leaves a Deandre Ayton trade as a realistic means to alter the roster. The Suns better make this teamwork.
NBA Team #1: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves face a similar problem as the Mavericks and 76ers. They went all in on an All-Star they believed to be the missing piece to their title contention. Instead, they gave up pretty much all they had to give for Rudy Gobert and ended up having a meh season with more downs than ups.
Gobert was supposed to fix the Timberwolves’ defensive and rebounding issues, but the offensive fit was clunky at best, especially with franchise players Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. To be fair, they never got much of a chance to figure things out because Towns missed so much time, but for a while there, it seemed like they were better off with Naz Reid as the only big on the floor.
Things got better when the Timberwolves essentially traded D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley, who managed to organize the offense some more and unlock Gobert and Jaden McDaniels offensively. Conley alone, however, was not enough to save the Timberwolves. Their season eventually ended on an embarrassing note. Gobert punched teammate Kyle Anderson, McDaniels punched a wall, they barely made it out of the play-in tournament, and despite Edwards’ best efforts, he barely put up a fight against the Nuggets.
While it was definitely concerning, the season could be chalked up to bad injury luck and a lack of time to figure everything out. Next season, however, has to go much better. The Timberwolves doubled down on their frontcourt-heavy roster. They are paying Gobert, Towns, and Reid handsomely, and Edwards just signed a massive extension. So much money spent on All-Star caliber players in Gobert, Towns, Conley, and Edwards, as well as two promising youngsters in McDaniels and Reid, should at least lead them past the second round.
Getting Gobert was a win-now move. So far, it has not led to many wins yet, and if that does not change soon, the trade will go down as a terrible move as well as send the Timberwolves into a frantic rebuild mode. Most of their assets are gone, and it might be difficult to move on from Gobert. They would pretty much have no other choice but to part ways with Towns and retool around Edwards and Gobert.