These 10 players could be poised for breakout seasons in 2016-17 as legitimate candidates for the NBA’s Most Improved Player of the Year Award.
Heading into every new NBA season, it’s usually pretty easy to predict which teams will fall into each tier of the league hierarchy. The bonafide contenders are at the top, the playoff challengers fall in line beneath them, the fringe playoff teams scrap for the right to be first round fodder, and then the true bottom-feeders and tankers take center stage.
There is some variance in there, and every season there are a couple of teams that are complete surprises — either because they come out of nowhere to buck expectations with a playoff run, or because injuries and chemistry problems send them into the draft lottery.
Either way, the fan bases of contenders and tankers alike have reason to tune in every season — their star players. The contenders get to enjoy their superstars who decide playoff series and rise to the occasion to compete for championships; the tankers get to enjoy the gradual growth of their younger cornerstones and dream of a brighter future when those players rise to superstardom.
It’s a never-ending cycle, and a huge part of the fun for the non-contender fan bases is watching it all unfold. The NBA’s Most Improved Player of the Year Award embodies that mindset, celebrating young and overlooked players who step into the spotlight as surprising success stories.
As the 2016-17 NBA season approaches, it’s time to take a look at 10 players who seem poised for breakout seasons and could be legitimate candidates for the Most Improved Player of the Year Award.
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Honorable Mentions: Gary Harris, Rodney Hood, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Smart, Nikola Mirotic, Kristaps Porzingis, Doug McDermott
10. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
As the No. 2 overall pick from the 2012 NBA Draft, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist still hasn’t really had that definitive breakout season. After playing 78 games as a rookie, MKG’s injuries piled on, limiting him to 62, 55 and seven games over the next three seasons.
During that time, Kidd-Gilchrist flashed enough potential and stout defensive play to keep the Charlotte Hornets optimistic about his future, but to this point, the 23-year-old swingman has been unable to put together an elite defensive season or show off that improved jump shot of his.
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With Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams locked in for the long-term, MKG’s return to full health in 2016-17 will have to serve as the catalyst that keeps the Hornets in the playoff field despite the free agency departures of Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee.
Kidd-Gilchrist averaged 12.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game in his seven appearances last season, and it’ll take much better numbers to warrant consideration for Most Improved Player. With more help around him than ever though, perhaps just staying healthy will be enough to catapult MKG’s career to where it should’ve been by now.
9. D’Angelo Russell
Generally speaking, second-year players aren’t often in the conversation for this award. The real-deal, franchise star rookies quickly establish themselves in their first season as promising talents on the rise, while the rawer, long-term projects typically take more than just one or two years to make the leap.
Thanks to Kobe Bryant‘s farewell tour holding back the development of the Los Angeles Lakers‘ youngsters, D’Angelo Russell has the chance to make a substantial leap in Year 2 after relatively mundane rookie numbers.
Lou Williams on D’Angelo & Jordan Clarkson: “They understand it’s time to go, you really can’t hide behind the young guy tag forever."
— Serena Winters (@SerenaWinters) September 29, 2016
With the Black Mamba gone and head coach Byron Scott no longer around to limit Russell’s opportunities, this franchise point guard is going to be empowered like never before. His rookie averages of 13.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game should see significant spikes in 2016-17 while playing for a Lakers team with with no expectations.
Los Angeles won’t be competing for a playoff spot, which means head coach Luke Walton will be focused on feeding his young core as many minutes as possible. Unless Jordan Clarkson highjacks the offense, Russell might post big enough numbers to stir up some legitimate MIP chatter.
8. Steven Adams
With Kevin Durant gone, the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to need career years from Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams if they want to even dream about approaching last year’s 55-win mark.
More than likely, the Russell Westbrook Show will hit its rough patches as OKC struggles to put adequate perimeter shooting around him, but even if Adams is not a main option on offense, his case for Most Improved Player of the Year hinges on whether he establishes himself as top-five center.
At only 22 years last postseason, Adams came dangerously close to doing so, anchoring a stingy OKC defense and lightening the offensive load with intuitive passing as the Thunder downed the mighty 67-win San Antonio Spurs and built a 3-1 series lead over the Golden State Warriors. Here’s hoping his preseason ankle injury isn’t too serious, because the potential is clearly here.
He’ll have to boost his numbers up from the 8.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game he averaged last year. He’ll even have to bump his numbers up from the 10.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game he put up in the postseason. But if he can do so, and become a bigger focal point within the offense, his defensive toughness and importance to the Thunder’s success will shine through.
7. Myles Turner
Another second-year player ready to make the leap in 2016-17, Myles Turner bucks the trend of sophomores not belonging in this category thanks to the expanded role he’ll have with the Indiana Pacers this season.
With Ian Mahinmi joining the Washington Wizards in free agency, the Pacers’ starting center job falls to Turner, a 20-year-old stretch-5 who averaged 10.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in just 22.8 minutes per game as a rookie.
In the final 10 games Myles Turner played at least 24 mins during his rookie year, he averaged 13.2 points, 8.1 boards & 1.8 blocks. He's 20
— Michael Gallagher (@MikeSGallagher) September 21, 2016
Paul George is the face of the franchise, but there’s no question that Turner will soon be the Pacers’ secondary superstar who gives PG-13 a sidekick and helps elevate Indiana back to contender status.
Provided he can stay healthy, Turner looks poised to have a breakout year with an increased workload. He’s eventually going to be a game-changing rim protector and once he gets comfortable from three-point range, look out. Those things may not come as early as Year 2, but Turner is going to get his chance to put up big numbers nonetheless.
6. Victor Oladipo
Not every game is going to go as smoothly for Victor Oladipo as his preseason debut, which saw the 24-year-old shooting guard put up 34 points, five assists and two steals in 33 minutes. But if that’s any sort of indication of how Oladipo will be empowered with the Oklahoma City Thunder, his first legitimate breakout season will be fearsome to behold.
True enough, Oladipo had a great statistical year in his second season, averaging 17.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, but those were fairly empty numbers for an Orlando Magic team that went 25-57.
His numbers shrank to 16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists last season, and as he vacillated between starting and bench role under Scott Skiles, Orlando basically gave up on him this summer. Playing alongside Russell Westbrook, Oladipo has his chance to prove to the world what a mistake that was — Kevin Durant or no Kevin Durant.
Three-point shooting and offensive spacing will be concerns for the Thunder, since Oladipo’s career high three-point percentage through three seasons is 34.8 percent. But if OKC can turn defense into offense and Oladipo blossoms as a secondary scoring threat, don’t rule anything out.
5. Clint Capela
Much like Myles Turner in Indiana, Clint Capela‘s spot on this list largely comes from the expanded work load he’ll undertake in 2016-17. With Dwight Howard gone and the Houston Rockets going all in on a high-powered offense, it’s up to this third-year center to make a porous defense somewhat respectable.
Is that an unfair expectation for a 22-year-old who spent the majority of his time at power forward last season? Absolutely. But this lanky specimen has shown enough flashes of potential to be a boon for the Rockets on both ends of the floor in the starting center spot.
Last year, Capela averaged only 7.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 19.1 minutes per game — numbers he’ll easily surpass in his third season. Capela has great shot-blocking instincts and in an unexpected development, is displaying some exceptional passing ability on the other end.
If he can be an alley-oop threat, move the ball to perimeter shooters and ground a defense that’s expected to be lackluster, Capela’s value to the run-n-gun Rockets will be hard to ignore come awards season.
4. Devin Booker
The third and final sophomore on this list, Devin Booker may be poised to make the leap to stardom as early as 2016-17. It’ll likely happen for a mediocre — or even poor — Phoenix Suns team, but after taking Brandon Knight‘s starting job, it’s clear head coach Earl Watson is ready for the future to begin down in the Valley.
Booker, who won’t turn 20 until Phoenix’s third game of the season, only averaged 13.8 points per game on .423/.343/.840 shooting splits as a rookie. But he dominated Summer League, put up 19 points in 24 minutes in his team’s preseason opener and won the starting job in training camp. Oh and he also averaged 17.4 points, 3.5 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game in 51 starts last year.
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His efficiency (.412/.302/.850) in those starts needs improving, but Booker was a lone gunner on a severely shorthanded Suns team at that point, which allowed defenses to key in on the efforts of a 19-year-old rookie.
Booker is so much more than the spot-up shooter he was pegged to be coming out of college. He can make plays out of the pick-and-roll, attacks the basket exceptionally well and though his defense needs work, this kid is going to be good. Now that he’s secured the starting role, he’s going to put up big numbers for a Suns team focused on player development.
3. Harrison Barnes
On the Golden State Warriors, Harrison Barnes was both an underrated part of a championship team’s success and an overrated prospect whose flaws stuck out amidst the brilliance around him all at once. With the Dallas Mavericks, he’ll get the chance to set the record straight on what kind of player he really is.
Last season, Barnes averaged 11.7 points and 4.9 rebounds per game while shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from downtown. His ability to play the 4 helped make the Dubs’ “Lineup of Death” so potent, as did his ability to knock down open corner threes.
New team. New role. New scenery. In Dallas, Harrison Barnes has the chance to be a star—and replace Dirk long-term https://t.co/tPaVETkkeY
— The Ringer (@ringer) September 29, 2016
But Barnes has never lived up to lofty projections coming out of high school and college, and his struggles in the last three games of the 2016 NBA Finals — 5-for-32 shooting — was a major driving force behind Golden State’s 3-1 collapse.
In an expanded role on the Mavs, however, Barnes should be able to surpass last year’s career numbers in a statistical breakout year.
His efficiency may fall off without open looks being served up on a silver platter, and the early returns haven’t been great, with Barnes putting up 15 points on 4-of-18 shooting through two preseason games. But Harry B will be a vital piece of Dallas’ success on both ends of the floor, and if he can adapt to that role, the MIP Award will be within his sights.
2. Dennis Schroder
If you’re looking for candidates to make the biggest statistical leaps in 2016-17, Dennis Schroder has to be high up on that list. After averaging 11.0 points and 4.4 assists per game in a backup role last year, the Atlanta Hawks‘ new starting point guard will be fully unleashed this season.
What that means for the Hawks remains to be seen, since Schroder morphed into a turnover-prone, layup-missing, unhinged version of himself at times in the playoffs. He’s probably not as good as Jeff Teague at age 23, and there will be growing pains for him as he adjusts to a full-time starting role.
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But the Hawks were confident to move on from Teague for a reason: Schroder is their point guard for the future. In performances like his 27-point, six-assist outburst against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of Atlanta’s semifinal playoff series, Schroder’s ceiling became a bit more clear.
Head coach Mike Budenholzer would often play Schroder over Teague in crunch time anyway, and now that the “German Rajon Rondo” will be receiving starter’s minutes, there’s a good chance he makes enough of a leap in the stat column to distract voters from his other flaws as a floor general.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
To be fair, expecting Giannis Antetokounmpo to substantially improve on the 16.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals per game he averaged last season might be asking a bit much. The Milwaukee Bucks‘ franchise star can only do so much by himself, after all.
That being said, even with Khris Middleton sidelined, the Greek Freak seems as destined for a breakout season as ever. This will be his fourth year in the NBA, Middleton’s absence will only put more responsibility on him on offense, and Jason Kidd is going to empower him like never before.
Once Kidd made Antetokounmpo the team’s starting point guard last year, the Greek Freak reeled off five triple-doubles after the All-Star break. That’s the same role he’ll employ in 2016-17, and with another year under his belt, it’s time for Giannis to make the leap to NBA stardom.
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Middleton’s injury deprives Antetokounmpo of another useful three-point weapon, but at age 21, the Greek Freak might be able to put up All-Star caliber numbers regardless. He already made significant strides last year, and if Middleton’s absence coaxes some outright superhuman play from Antetokounmpo, he’ll be a automatic frontrunner for Most Improved Player of the Year.