NBA: Top 10 Candidates For Rookie Of The Year Award In 2016-17

As the 2016-17 NBA season approaches, here’s a look at the 10 most likely candidates to win the league’s Rookie of the Year Award.

[Updated 10/4/16 to reflect Ben Simmons’ injury]

With 30 teams and only one championship trophy handed out each year, there are 29 NBA fan bases that are left wanting more at the end of every season.

Some teams are contenders who fell short; some are contenders on the rise who will get another crack at a title; some teams are just fighting for a playoff spot and others are just trying to rebuild in the hopes of joining the contenders one day.

For many of the teams who miss the playoffs, and even for some of those who sneak into the postseason, the NBA Draft is a source of hope. Even with all the changes to the salary cap and free agency, the draft is still the best avenue for teams to cultivate championship-level talent.

In the 2016 NBA Draft, plenty of teams found promising young rookies to help build for a brighter future. Not every selection was a franchise player, but most of the teams in the draft lottery will be excited to see what their rookie(s) can do in the upcoming season.

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Bearing that in mind, it’s time to take a look at which first-year players not only have the talent to separate themselves from the rest of the draft class, but the opportunity to play a prominent role on their teams right from the start. Here are the top 10 candidates for the NBA’s 2016-17 Rookie of the Year Award.

Honorable Mentions:  Jakob Poeltl, Dario Saric, Jamal Murray, Juan Hernangomez, Dejounte Murray

Ben Simmons Update

There are quite a few promising rookies to watch this season, but this wasn’t complicated at the start. Ben Simmons was the hands down favorite for the 2016-17 Rookie of the Year Award…until he rolled his ankle in practice and suffered an acute Jones fracture in his right foot.

The injury required surgery, and though there is no timetable for his return, rumors are already circulating that Simmons’ agent, Rich Paul, does not want his client to play at all in 2016-17. Either way, Simmons’ foot injury obviously tanks his Rookie of the Year stock.

In his lone season at LSU, the 19-year-old No. 1 overall pick was used improperly and surrounded with lackluster talent…but still averaged 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.0 steals per game on 56 percent shooting. In six Summer League games, he put up 10.8 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game in the same point forward role he’ll (eventually) have with the Sixers.

Simmons was Vegas’ overwhelming favorite to win the award, not only because of his exemplary court vision and athleticism, but because he was supposed to be taking on a more prominent role than any other rookie. Remember, this is the kid that diehard Philly fans are depending upon to save the franchise.

But now that he’s injured, the Sixers are quite possibly looking at their third straight lottery selection missing his entire rookie season. Even if he somehow returned halfway through the season and played stellar basketball, that still wouldn’t be enough to earn him this award.

At this point, it seems like the only way Ben Simmons will win a Rookie of the Year Award is if it’s in 2017-18.

10. Dragan Bender

As the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft, it feels wrong not to include the 7’1″ Dragan Bender. This Croatian product has already faced quality competition overseas playing for Maccabi Tel Aviv, so perhaps the adjustment to the NBA level won’t be so brutal for him.

Though he’s the youngest player in the NBA at 18 years old, Bender has the versatility to play multiple positions thanks to his height, length, shooting, passing and dribbling abilities that are rarely seen in a seven-footer.

With the Phoenix Suns inching closer to a full-on youth movement, Bender could see meaningful minutes behind Jared Dudley and alongside Marquese Chriss at the 4, behind Tyson Chandler and Alex Len at the 5 or even behind P.J. Tucker and T.J. Warren at the 3. One injury to any of those aforementioned players and Bender’s minutes will rise even higher.

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Phoenix’s new Dragan figures to be a bit of a project, and his ho-hum play in Summer League — 8.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 27.5 FG%, 26.5 3P%, 50 FT% — suggests it’ll take some time for him to get acclimated. But there’s a reason the Suns took him so high, and we shouldn’t rule anything out on a team that will give its youngsters decent minutes right from the start of the season.

9. Jaylen Brown

Like Bender, we couldn’t ignore someone taken as early as Jaylen Brown, who was selected by the Boston Celtics with the third overall pick. After an impressive Summer League debut, listing him at No. 9 might not be giving him enough credit.

In addition to being a lockdown wing defender, the 19-year-old Brown averaged 16.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game. Though he shot a dismal 30.7 percent from the field and 27.2 percent from downtown, he finished Summer League with three straight 20+ scoring performances and pulled down at least seven boards in each one.

There’s no question that Brown has things to work on. His perimeter shot is far too unreliable at this stage to be anything other than Jae Crowder‘s second or third string backup, and like Bender, he’s a high-upside pick who may struggle to prove himself as NBA-ready as a rookie.

But if anything happens to Crowder, Gerald Green is really the only other player on Boston’s roster who can play the 3-spot, and even if Crowder stays completely healthy, Brown will be playing meaningful minutes off the bench on a playoff-caliber team.

8. Ivica Zubac

One of our dark horse selections, Ivica Zubac is the only second round pick on this list. After making a name for himself at NBA Summer League though, “Zublocka” could very well stuff the stat sheet enough on a bad Los Angeles Lakers team to warrant consideration for Rookie of the Year.

True enough, Timofey Mozgov and his gargantuan four-year, $64 million contract stand in Zubac’s way. But Mozzy missed quite a few games last season due to injury, and after being phased out of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ rotation, it’s unlikely he’s able to do any better than Roy Hibbert in salvaging the league’s worst defense from last season.

If Mozgov gets hurt, if the losses pile up and youth development becomes the priority, or if Zubac just flat-out outplays Mozzy, this 19-year-old rookie could prove himself as Los Angeles’ long-term solution at center.

In Summer League, the 7’1″ Zubac averaged an eye-opening 10.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game on 64.7 percent shooting. Summer League is Summer League, but Zubac is already looking like a second round steal, so why not consider him as a dark horse ROY candidate?

7. Denzel Valentine

Between Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, the Chicago Bulls‘ backcourt is pretty much set. But with zero shooting among that trio, and given his ceiling as a guard version of Draymond Green, rookie Denzel Valentine could have a very promising career ahead of him.

He may have struggled with his efficiency at NBA Summer League, shooting 35.2 percent from the floor and 12-for-47 from three-point range, but he also put up 11.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.6 steals per game and knocked down shots when they mattered most:

Eventually, the 6’6″ Valentine may be able to play positions 1-3. He’s an incredibly smart player with elite court vision, playmaking ability, solid defensive skills and an efficient touch from the perimeter that the Bulls desperately need.

It didn’t show up in Summer League, but Valentine shot 44.4 percent from downtown last season while posting an extremely well-rounded 19-8-8 stat line to win AP Player of the Year honors. He may not get too many opportunities as a rookie, but if he does, and if he comes back strong from his two-week ankle injury, it probably means he’ll have earned those minutes with Rookie of the Year-caliber play.

6. Marquese Chriss

In this year’s draft, the Phoenix Suns not only got the international man of mystery with Dragan Bender, but they also got the domestic mystery prospect in their draft-day trade for Marquese Chriss. Like Bender, Chriss is a raw talent who may undergo a trial by fire simply because the Suns are undergoing a youth movement and don’t have many players available at the 4.

At only 19 years old, Chriss is the fourth youngest player in the 2016 draft class. He was a woeful defensive rebounder at Washington, but got better in every way as his freshman season progressed. Thanks to his 6’10” frame and jaw-dropping athleticism, Chriss could be ready to compete at the next level as soon as — if not sooner than — Bender.

In NBA Summer League, Chriss averaged 10.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. He’s nowhere near as skilled with the ball as Bender, and he shot only 33.3 percent from the field while missing all seven of his three-pointers, but this project player may benefit from not being forced to play out of position like Bender, who might log some time at small forward.

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With Bender being able to play three different positions, Chriss may be the default backup for Jared Dudley at the 4 With positive mentors teaching him the ins and outs of being a stretch-4 in this league, Chriss can go to work proving why so many teams were intrigued by his upside.

5. Kris Dunn

This will be contingent on the Minnesota Timberwolves either trading Ricky Rubio or wistfully watching him nurse another injury on the sidelines, but in terms of pure talent and upside, Kris Dunn has to be in the running among our preseason ROY favorites.

In his senior season at Providence, Dunn put up 16.4 points, 6.2 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game on .448/.372/.695 shooting splits. In his only two Summer League games, he averaged 24.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game.

As an athletic, 6’3″ guard, there are questions about his perimeter touch and his ability to lead a team as the floor general. But he’s also got the personality of a Rottweiler on the basketball court, with his closest NBA comparison being a defensive-oriented Russell Westbrook.

Head coach Tom Thibodeau prizes defense over everything else, and if Rubio is injured or traded, Dunn is a natural long-term replacement — which may apply even if Rubio is healthy and stays on the roster. The Wolves will try playing the two together, and Rubio is (and should be) ahead of Dunn in the rotation. But if there’s an opening, this promising rookie will pounce on it.

4. Dario Saric

With Ben Simmons out, Dario Saric moves into the starting lineup at power forward. Though he’s been dealing with some back issues, Saric’s playmaking will be a direct — albeit less effective — replacement for Simmons in the starting lineup.

Last season for Anadolu Efes in Turkey, Saric averaged 11.7 points and 5.8 rebounds per game on .500/.403/.939 shooting splits. If his efficient long range shooting translates to the NBA, he’ll automatically be one of the Philadelphia 76ers‘ main options on offense.

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It’s a bit telling that a 22-year-old rookie like Saric was moved into the starting lineup — alongside fellow Rookie of the Year candidate Joel Embiid — over Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel.

But whatever the case with the Sixers’ crowded frontcourt or Philly’s insistence on taking the cautious route with Okafor’s health, it appears as though Brett Brown will be giving the first opportunities to Saric and Embiid. With Simmons sidelined, Saric has a real shot at this award.

3. Buddy Hield

Finally, we get to the candidates who will enter the 2016-17 NBA season with a prominent role. Though the New Orleans Pelicans brought in E’Twuan Moore and already have an injured Tyreke Evans and Quincy Pondexter at the 2-spot, Hield has the most potential for the long haul.

Coming off a stellar collegiate season with the Oklahoma Sooners, Hield put up 25.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game on .501/.457/.880 shooting splits as a senior. As one of the best college scorers in the nation, Hield should be playing second fiddle to Anthony Davis in no time.

In his first preseason game, Hield didn’t start, but he did tie a team-high 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting, also chipping in six rebounds and three assists. Unfortunately, his 19 points tied E’Twaun Moore, who is his chief competition for the starting job.

If it weren’t for his age (22), he would’ve been considered for a top-three pick. Moore is best suited for a bench role as soon as Hield’s ready, which he probably already is. With Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans both injured to start the season, he doesn’t have many obstacles in his way either.

Hield will be playing a significant role on a team that wants to make the playoffs but didn’t significantly improve over the summer, and if he’s able to put up big numbers, spread the floor and not look too terrible on the defensive end, he will garner serious Rookie of the Year consideration.

2. Joel Embiid

To be honest, most Philadelphia 76ers fans would just be content with Joel Embiid playing 60-70 games and staying healthy in his long-awaited rookie season. But if The Ringer and all those pre-draft Hakeem Olajuwon comparisons are to be believed, Embiid could finally burst onto the scene once he’s given his first opportunity.

Over the last two years, Embiid has been recovering from a broken bone in his foot. He’s never played a single NBA game, nor has he suited up once for Summer League. But as much as rust, fatigue and conditioning will be an issue for him, expectations are still sky-high.

That’s probably unfair to Embiid, who hasn’t played an official game of basketball in two years now. But now that he’s back to scrimmaging with the Sixers, the early results have been promising, and it’s no secret that Philly has him far lower than Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel in the Centers We Probably Need To Trade Soon power rankings.

Okafor is a tremendous back-to-the-basket scorer, and Noel is a future Defensive Player of the Year in the making, but Embiid is the best of both worlds with a higher ceiling. If he can just stay healthy, he may take advantage of the opportunity to start from day one.

1. Brandon Ingram

It’s not often that the No. 2 overall pick is not guaranteed a starting job on opening night, but that may be the case with Brandon Ingram after the Los Angeles Lakers went out and signed Luol Deng to a four-year, $72 million contract.

In a rebuilding year centered on youth development, however, there’s no question Ingram will get his opportunities under head coach Luke Walton. Even if they don’t come on opening night, once the losses start to pile up, this 19-year-old Duke product will get his chance to shine as a starter.

Opening with the third-best odds in Las Vegas to win Rookie of the Year, Ingram averaged 17.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.4 blocks per game on .442/.410/.682 shooting splits for the Blue Devils. He posted 12.2 points and 4.2 rebounds per game on 41.2 percent shooting in five Summer League games as well.

Next: Top 10 Candidates For 2016-17 Defensive Player Of The Year

Ingram will need to get stronger and become a more efficient scorer, especially off the dribble. But when your game is frequently compared to Kevin Durant‘s, that’s a special kind of talent who shouldn’t be overlooked in the Rookie of the Year conversation.