Houston Rockets: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Gerald Bourguet

Apr 3, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) celebrates after scoring a basket during the third quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Toyota Center. The Rockets won 118-110. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets are going all in on James Harden, Mike D’Antoni and the offense, but how much success will it lead to? Here’s their 2016-17 season outlook.

After securing the second seed in the West, making it all the way to the conference finals and being led by the MVP runner-up in 2014-15, it’s safe to say the Houston Rockets were pretty sick and tired of finishing second behind the Golden State Warriors.

Thanks to their disappointing 2015-16 season that saw them finish 41-41 and barely sneak into the playoffs, it’s safe to say the Rockets no longer have to worry about that problem. Heading into 2016-17, they’re simply trying to prove they can still contend in the future.

Despite James Harden slapping up a 29-7-6 stat line and the Rockets boasting a top-10 offense, the lackluster defensive effort from the Beard and the rest of his supporting cast ultimately doomed them to a first round playoff effort. From chemistry issues to poor three-point shooting, Houston failed to live up to expectations coming off the most promising season of the Harden era.

Heading into the 2016-17 season, Houston has embraced Harden and the roster’s flaws, for better or for worse. Under head coach Mike D’Antoni, the Rockets and their new free agent additions will be gunning for a return to the playoffs in a high-octane offense, but will it be enough to cover the team’s inherent flaws on the defensive end?

Here’s a look at what to expect from Harden, D’Antoni, the high-powered Rockets offense and a dauntingly uninspired defense in 2016-17.

2015-16 Vitals

41-41, 4th in Southwest Division, 8th in Western Conference
106.5 PPG (4th)/106.4 OPP PPG (25th)
108.3 Offensive Rating (7th)/108.1 Defensive Rating (21st)

Team Leaders
Scoring: James Harden, 29.0 PPG
Rebounding: Dwight Howard, 11.8 RPG
Assists: James Harden, 7.5 APG
Steals: Trevor Ariza, 2.0 SPG
Blocks: Dwight Howard, 1.6 BPG

Honors
N/A

Next: Roster

2016-17 Roster

Ryan Anderson, PF
Trevor Ariza, SF
Michael Beasley, SF
Patrick Beverley, PG
Corey Brewer, SG
Bobby Brown, PG
Clint Capela, C
Sam Dekker, SF
Eric Gordon, SG
James Harden, SG
Montrezl Harrell, PF
Nene Hilario, C
K.J. McDaniels, SG
Chinanu Onuaku, PF
Gary Payton II, PG
Pablo Prigioni, PG
Isaiah Taylor, PG
Kyle Wiltjer, PF

Offseason Additions
Ryan Anderson (free agency, New Orleans Pelicans), Bobby Brown (free agency, Besiktas {Turkey}), Eric Gordon (free agency, New Orleans Pelicans), Nene Hilario (free agency, Washington Wizards), Chinanu Onuaku (37th overall draft pick, Louisville), Gary Payton II (free agency, undrafted) Isaiah Taylor (free agency, undrafted), Kyle Wiltjer (free agency, undrafted)

Offseason Subtractions
Andrew Goudelock (waived), Dwight Howard (free agency, Atlanta Hawks), Terrence Jones (free agency, New Orleans Pelicans), Donatas Motiejunas (free agency, unsigned), Josh Smith (free agency, unsigned), Jason Terry (free agency, Milwaukee Bucks)

Quick Thoughts

The Houston Rockets were never in the running for Kevin Durant, Mike Conley or any of the summer’s marquee free agents who might have helped turn their fortunes around for 2016-17, leaving them with Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon as their biggest acquisitions.

Three Key Storylines: 1. Trading Defense For Offense

Offense wasn’t really the area Houston needed help after being a top-10 unit last season, but why aim for balance when being elite on one end of the floor might be enough to win games? That’s the Rockets’ philosophy at least, as they spent their summer trading defense for offense.

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With Howard opting out of his contract and heading to Atlanta in free agency, Houston lost its best rim protector and defensive anchor. The 22-year-old Capela can hardly be expected to have more of an impact than Howard in that role, which is troubling since the Rockets ranked 21st in defensive rating with D-12 on the back lines.

Instead of trying to find a quick fix or shore up the perimeter D, Houston decided to take its greatest strength and inject it with steroids, signing Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon to help the offense improve from great to elite.

Last season, Houston only ranked 19th in three-point percentage, converting 34.7 percent of its 30.9 long range attempts per game (second-most in the league). Anderson and Gordon should help in that respect, making this dangerous offense even more potent.

With more floor-spacers for Harden, the Beard will either have more room to operate when attacking the basket or plenty of kick-out options on the perimeter when the defense collapses on him. As one of the best playmakers, pick-and-roll operators and iso-scorers in the NBA, Harden will be able to drive a formidable offense rather than carry it.

Harden on NBA TV, says he thinks D'Antoni will be good for him/them, but also notes the Bzdelik hire for their defense as very important.
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) July 14, 2016

The question is whether Houston can get enough stops to make all those points matter. Harden will have to go back to 2014-15 James Harden on the defensive end to set an example, Capela will have to make the leap in Year 3 and the Rockets still may have to outscore opponents 120-118 to win games.

With a new head coach at the helm, Harden signed on for the foreseeable future and more three-point weapons on the perimeter, the Rockets’ success in 2016-17 will primarily depend upon fielding an unstoppable offense.

Next: Storyline 2: Clutch City Pringles

Three Key Storylines: 2. Clutch City Pringles

There’s no question that Mike D’Antoni has had a significant impact on the course of NBA history. As an early adopter of the basic principles that now comprise the pace-and-space era, D’Antoni and his Phoenix Suns teams were revolutionary, even if they never broke through and won a title.

The only question is whether Mike D can still be an effective head coach in this day and age. After all, his last two stops with the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers were hardly encouraging, with the Pringles Guy boasting a combined 188-254 record (.425) over that six-season span.

D'Antoni joking about Lakers, Knicks: "I should have stayed with the Suns." #Rockets
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) June 1, 2016

It’s been easy to chalk up D’Antoni’s success to having Hall of Fame-caliber players like Steve Nash, Amar’e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion. After burning out in the NBA’s two largest markets, Mike D — until he proves otherwise — is widely regarded as a basketball relic who helped lay the foundations for a new era of basketball but is incapable of building it up any further.

There’s a chance D’Antoni crashes and burns once again in Clutch City, but it’s worth noting that he finally has something he didn’t have in New York and Los Angeles: A superstar playmaker and facilitator capable of shepherding his offensive schemes.

D'Antoni basically said he wanted to get Harden over the hump and help him win an MVP.
— Kind of Paul (@LastNameHyphen) July 12, 2016

Harden is easily the best floor general D’Antoni has had since his days with Nash, and on paper, this union could empower both to reach heights they haven’t seen in quite some time. With more shooters on the perimeter and Mike D putting the ball in Harden’s hands, the Rockets’ offense could be fearsome to behold.

The D’Antoni hire was perfectly in line with the Rockets’ complete commitment to offense, and though he’s given little reason for encouragement in his last two jobs, if ever there were a place for him to restore his league-wide reputation, it’d be in Houston with Harden leading the way.

Next: Storyline 3: Can Harden Lead Again?

Three Key Storylines: 3. Can Harden Lead Again?

Despite putting up 29.0 points, 7.5 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game last year, James Harden didn’t make a single All-NBA team. Why? Because his defensive effort was atrocious for most of the season, his team won only 41 games and his leadership left a great deal to be desired.

The Rockets spent their whole summer upgrading an already impressive offense, they got the right coach for the job and they even gave Harden a four-year, $118 million extension this summer, but none of it matters if the Beard doesn’t play with some charisma this season.

Last year, it was no secret that Harden and Dwight Howard didn’t get along. Harden’s defensive effort was entirely discouraging after actually trying the season before, when he finished second in MVP voting. His reputation was tarnished around the league, and his team unsurprisingly bowed out in five games in the first round of the playoffs.

With a new contract, a new head coach and plenty of people to prove wrong, 2016-17 is all about Harden becoming a leader like he was in 2014-15, when Houston reached the Western Conference Finals.

Under Mike D, there’s no question Harden will be able to put up elite numbers. But will he actually try on the defensive end with no Dwight Howard protecting the rim? Will he set the example for new arrivals like Gordon and Anderson? Will he embrace the challenge of being Mike D’s lead facilitator and become a legitimate leader for his franchise?

James Harden he's spoken with Mike D'Antoni the last couple of days about being more of a playmaker.
— Calvin Watkins (@calvinwatkins) June 23, 2016

So far, the early returns are promising. Harden has organized summer workouts for his teammates to try and build the chemistry and camaraderie that wasn’t there last year. He won’t be coming into training camp out of shape like last year and Mike D’s system will give him every opportunity to be successful.

But now that Harden has some help around him on the offensive end of the floor, there’s no excuse for half-assing it on the other end.

If he brings the defensive focus and sets an example, the Rockets will be in a better place, because as has been the case for the last few seasons, their success depends largely on what kind of season the Beard turns in.

Next: Best, Worst Case Scenarios

Best-Case Scenario

Harden’s early signs of leadership are no mirage, with the Beard finally stepping forward as a charismatic, supportive teammate for the duration of the 2016-17 season. The refinement in his attitude is infectious, and it’s the key reason behind Houston’s drastic one-year turnaround.

The rest of the Rockets buy in as Harden goes back to actually trying on the defensive end. It’s not enough to change the team’s destiny as a mediocre defense due to its personnel, but the Rockets surprisingly finish in the middle of the pack for defensive rating with everyone actually putting in effort on that end.

Under D’Antoni’s fast-paced system, Harden flourishes, averaging 30+ points and at least eight assists per game to garner some legitimate MVP chatter. With Anderson and Gordon both shooting 40 percent or better from three-point range, defenses have a hellacious time trying to defend a far more potent and entertaining Rockets onslaught.

Capela takes the leap in Year 3, establishing himself as one of the league’s best young rim protectors. Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer improve their three-point accuracy with so many wide open looks and the Rockets win around 50 games to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Though Houston once again falls short of a title, they make another surprising run to the conference finals, where the Warriors knock them out for the third year in a row. Still, Harden’s career year and the Rockets’ success are a boon for Houston in free agency, helping them add more star talent and perhaps a little more defense to build a legitimate contender moving forward.

Worst-Case Scenario

The Rockets fizzle to another .500 season, with their bottom-five defense being the culprit behind their first season of missing the playoffs in the James Harden era.

With Harden’s typical lapses on the defensive end and Anderson/Gordon’s inability to guard anyone, Patrick Beverley and a still developing Clint Capela can hardly stem the tide of continuous buckets for opposing teams. Capela struggles under the pressure of being the team’s main rim protector while Anderson and Gordon fail to stay healthy once again.

Harden’s lack of leadership leads to friction with an embattled coach D’Antoni, who starts getting defensive in what looks like the third failed stint of his post-Suns career. The Beard puts up terrific individual numbers, but once again toils away offensively, slacks off defensively and misses out on the major accolades and awards because of his team’s lack of success.

Houston wins 41 games again, which isn’t enough to make the playoffs in an improved Western Conference, and Harden continues to draw criticism about his status as an NBA superstar.

Next: Predictions

Predictions

The Rockets seemingly fixed their biggest offensive weakness by adding three-point shooting, most likely turning last year’s top-10 offense into at least a top-five unit this season. That will be enough to help them win more games than last season, but it also depends on everyone staying healthy.

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With a shortage of NBA-ready power forwards and Dwight Howard gone, the Rockets will need to score 115-120 points a night to win games. Their defense will reside in the bottom third once again, but the Harden and D’Antoni pairing will prove to be as salivating as advertised on the offensive end.

Harden puts up career numbers and tries a little bit harder on the defensive end, taking baby steps forward in the leadership department as the Rockets become fun to watch again. Capela goes through his growing pains as the starting center, but shows plenty of signs of potential in just his third season.

Anderson and Gordon spread the floor well enough, but miss their expected 10-20 games as has become annual tradition for them. The Rockets don’t emerge as title contenders, but despite the injuries and lackluster defense, they make the playoffs as the sixth or seventh seed out West behind a 45-37 record.

Next: 2016 NBA Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams

Houston is once again eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, facing a more balanced Spurs or Clippers team. However, Harden’s fit within D’Antoni’s system makes Clutch City more attractive to free agents, the Beard restores his reputation as a bonafide superstar and the Rockets create a brighter future for themselves.

Gerald Bourguet