Minnesota Timberwolves: 2016-17 Season Outlook

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a future title contender out West, but what can be expected of them in their first year under Tom Thibodeau? Here’s their 2016-17 season outlook.

Despite their standing near the bottom of the Western Conference last year, the Minnesota Timberwolves conjured up more excitement than perhaps any other 23-win team over the last decade. The reason? They’ve got a core that should be competing for championships in just a few years.

Led by Karl-Anthony Towns, one of only five unanimous Rookie of the Year awardees since 1984, and Andrew Wiggins, a fellow No. 1 overall draft pick and former Rookie of the Year, the Wolves have two sturdy pillars to build a foundation around.

Throw in other young talent like Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammad and the newly drafted Kris Dunn, and this team’s future is exceedingly bright, even if their place in the mix has yet to be solidified.

With the hiring of head coach Tom Thibodeau, it truly is a new era for Minnesota Timberwolves basketball — perhaps the most promising one ever, which is saying something for a franchise that had Kevin Garnett for his entire prime.

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It’s too soon to tell what the future holds for the Wolves, but with one of the most promising cores in the entire NBA, we might not have to wait too long for the next Western empire to rise from the rubble of the Golden State Warriors’ and San Antonio Spurs’ current dynasties.

2015-16 Vitals

29-53, 5th in Northwest Division, 13th in Western Conference
102.4 PPG (15th)/106.0 OPP PPG (23rd)
106.5 Offensive Rating (12th)/110.1 Defensive Rating (28th)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Andrew Wiggins, 20.7 PPG
Rebounding: Karl-Anthony Towns, 10.5 RPG
Assists: Ricky Rubio, 8.7 APG
Steals: Ricky Rubio, 2.1 SPG
Blocks: Karl-Anthony Towns, 1.7 BPG

Honors
Rookie of the Year Award: Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA All-Rookie First Team: Karl-Anthony Towns

Next: Roster

2016-17 Roster

Cole Aldrich, C
Nemanja Bjelica, PF
Gorgui Dieng, C
Kris Dunn, PG
Kevin Garnett, PF(?)
Jordan Hill, C
Tyus Jones, PG
Zach LaVine, SG
John Lucas III, PG
Shabazz Muhammad, SF
Toure’ Murry, SG
Adreian Payne, PF
Nikola Pekovic, C
Ricky Rubio, PG
Brandon Rush, SF
Karl-Anthony Towns, C
Andrew Wiggins, SG

Offseason Additions
Cole Aldrich (free agency, Los Angeles Clippers), Kris Dunn (No. 5 overall draft pick, Providence), Jordan Hill (free agency, Indiana Pacers), John Lucas III (free agency, Piratas de Quebradilla {Puerto Rico}), Toure’ Murry (free agency, unsigned), Brandon Rush (free agency, Golden State Warriors)

Offseason Subtractions
Tayshaun Prince (free agency, unsigned), Damjan Rudez (free agency, Orlando Magic), Greg Smith (waived)

Quick Thoughts

For the most part, the Timberwolves’ roster will look very similar to last year’s rendition. Tayshaun Prince remains unsigned, and Kevin Garnett still hasn’t decided about returning for his 22nd NBA season, but for the most part, the core remains the same.

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The arrival of rookie Kris Dunn obviously brings another point guard into the mix, calling Ricky Rubio’s long-term future with the Wolves into question. But assuming Minnesota doesn’t make any hasty trades, the two should be able to coexist in the same backcourt for the upcoming season.

While plenty of attention will be diverted to the silent Rubio-Dunn power struggle, the three-man core of KAT, Wiggins and LaVine is what will draw eyeballs to the television screens again in 2016-17.

Can Towns make another gargantuan leap in his second season a la Anthony Davis? Is Wiggins ready to take the next step beyond “20 points per game scorer” and into “elite two-way player” territory? And is LaVine due for a breakout season to prove he’s more than just a two-time Slam Dunk champion?

The youngsters will provide the meat for this four-star League Pass course, but the sides are worth monitoring too. New arrivals like Brandon Rush, Jordan Hill and Cole Aldrich have something to add to this roster off the bench — especially Rush, who can spread the floor more effectively than anyone in Minnesota and could be utilized as a stretch-4 in small-ball lineups.

Next: Storyline 1: The Future Of Rubio

Three Key Storylines: 1. The Future Of Rubio

While Thibs and the Timberwolves reportedly tried to send the No. 5 overall pick and someone from the LaVine/Dieng/Muhammad core to Chicago for Jimmy Butler on draft night, they might have lucked out when the Bulls shot them down; that’s how good Kris Dunn could become.

Gifted with explosive athleticism and an insatiable competitive fire, Dunn is like a defensive-minded, poor man’s Russell Westbrook. After averaging 16.4 points, 6.2 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game in his senior season at Providence, Dunn will be on a mission to assert himself as the team’s point guard of the future.

If he can sustain the 37.2 percent three-point shooting he posted last year, Dunn has all the tools to carve out a niche for himself in this league, even while playing for a coach like Thibs who notoriously glues rookies to the bench.

Dunn’s defense gives him a chance at substantial minutes, but for now, the ball is in Ricky Rubio’s court. He’s the better defender, facilitator and all-around player at his point, and at age 25, he’s only three years older than Dunn.

His timeline doesn’t perfectly align with that of Towns and Wiggins, but it’s worth noting that since Rubio joined Minnesota, the Wolves are 114-164 (.410) in games he’s played…as opposed to an atrocious 28-88 in games he’s missed (.241).

Rubio has never been able to live up to the excessive pre-draft hype that surrounded him when he first entered the league, especially with it now being common knowledge that Minnesota took him (and Jonny Flynn) over Stephen Curry in that draft.

But he’s a far better player than people realize, and despite his well-documented flaws when it comes to shooting the ball, his defense, facilitating and experience will be useful to this young Wolves team in 2016-17.

Whether he’s traded down the line or eventually replaced by Dunn in the starting lineup, Rubio can help shepherd the Timberpups into a new era. Or, ideally, he and Dunn can learn to play together in the same backcourt and they can both be a part of a championship contender in a few years.

The only question is whether he gets the chance to prove his long-term value this season, especially with a hungry rookie like Kris Dunn applying the pressure and Rubio’s name appearing in trade rumors as recently as last year’s trade deadline.

The Wolves should give the pair a chance to co-exist with Rubio on such a team-friendly contract for the next three years, but unless these two both develop into average perimeter shooters overnight, it feels like the clock may be winding down on Rubio’s time in Minnesota.

Next: Storyline 2: Is This A Dark Horse Playoff Team?

Three Key Storylines: 2. Is This A Dark Horse Playoff Team?

Last season, the Timberwolves won a grand total of 23 games, but they also started the season 8-8 before the wheels fell off. If Minnesota can find a way to sustain that success over a full 82-game season, do they have an outside shot at making the playoffs?

The answer to that question depends on a variety of factors, starting with Towns, who will need to have a second-year coming-out party much like Anthony Davis did.

Dunking with Wolves

For a 20-year-old who averaged 18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.7 blocks per game on .542/.341/.811 shooting splits as a rookie, it’s both totally unreasonable and perfectly logical to assume Towns can take another gargantuan leap in 2016-17.

But KAT can’t do it by himself, which is why he’ll need his co-star Andrew Wiggins to tap into that elite two-way potential in just his third season. Wiggins displayed a knack for knocking down big buckets and rising to the call against other star shooting guards last year; now it’s a matter of building on the other areas of his game like rebounding, perimeter shooting and playmaking.

LaVine will also need to take a step up after proving how effective he can be when he’s actually playing his proper position at shooting guard. The “Zach LaVine, point guard” experiment should be dead and buried by now, especially after LaVine drilled 42.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot three-pointers last year.

Guys like Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad will need to improve as well. Minnesota might also enjoy seeing Tyus Jones build upon his impressive NBA Summer League performance. Veteran additions like Cole Aldrich and Brandon Rush need to play their roles, and a career year from Rubio — coupled with a Rookie of the Year-esque campaign from Dunn — wouldn’t hurt either.

At this point, it’s tough to pencil the Wolves in as a top-eight team in the West, but if it only takes 40 wins to reach the postseason like last year, it’s certainly not off the table.

Next: Storyline 3: Minnesota Thib-erwolves

Three Key Storylines: 3. Minnesota Thib-erwolves

Under Sam Mitchell, the Wolves got off the a surprising start before finishing the season on a 21-45 skid. Despite their 11th ranked offense, Minnesota was a bottom-five unit on defense that bled points at an alarmingly high rate for a team with so many players you’d think would be plus-defenders (i.e. Rubio, Wiggins, Towns).

Under Tom Thibodeau, you can bet that Minnesota will be a drastically improved defense. It may not happen overnight, but Thibs’ Bulls teams ranked first, first, fifth, second and 11th in defensive rating during his five seasons at the helm. The season before he arrived, Chicago ranked 10th. The season after he left, the Bulls dropped to 15th.

No one should be expecting Thibs to turn Minnesota into the league’s stingiest defense in his first season like he did in Chicago, but if he can even get the Wolves’ defense into the middle tier, they could have a puncher’s chance of making the playoffs.

However, defensive prowess isn’t the only stigma that comes attached to a Thibodeau-coached team, In Chi-town, Thibs was notorious for running starters like Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah into the ground to win games.

The Bulls were a team competing for the Eastern Conference belt; the Wolves are a team trying to foster growth and build a championship culture from the ground up. Will Thibs turn Towns or Wiggins into his new Jimmy Butlers? Will he ride the injury-prone Rubio too hard?

Balance and utilizing his bench more will go a long way for this young team, which puts Thibs in an unfamiliar place on two fronts: 1) He typically doesn’t like to play younger players and 2) He doesn’t usually resort to his bench much. How will that shake out when his starters are all young and his bench consists of all the veterans?

Speaking of which, the biggest obstacle to Dunn’s Rookie of the Year campaign is evenly split between Rubio (the incumbent starter at the 1) and Thibodeau (the head coach notorious for sticking rookies on the bench).

None of this is meant to rain on Wolves fans’ parades, but from the defense to the minutes toll to Dunn’s playing time, it will be interesting to see not only what Thibs can extract from this young group, but how he goes about coaching a completely different kind of team in its rebuilding stage.

Next: Best, Worst Case Scenarios

Best-Case Scenario

Minnesota’s 27th ranked defense from last season experiences a rapid one-year turnaround under Thibodeau, and despite the roster’s youth, the Wolves put together a respectable, middle-ranked unit.

KAT takes the next giant step toward his MVP potential, while Wiggins slightly improves his three-point shot and establishes himself as a lockdown wing defender.

LaVine continues the upward trajectory with his three-point efficiency and sharpens the blunter edges of his game, while Dunn and Rubio show some signs of being able to co-exist on the same roster. Well, for now at least.

Dunn garners some Rookie of the Year chatter but mostly takes a backseat to a career year from Rubio, who earns Thibs’ trust thanks to his elite defense and experience.

The West has another down year and although their success does not earn them a high selection in a deep 2017 NBA Draft class, the Timberwolves manage to sneak into the Western Conference playoffs as the eighth seed, surprising the world with 42 or so wins.

Worst-Case Scenario

Rubio once again has problems staying healthy and Thibodeau’s first year at the helm is a rude awakening for a coach accustomed to working with elite defensive talent. Though the Wolves have the makings of a top-10 defense, Thibs is unable to harness it in the first year of a new learning experience.

Thanks to Rubio’s injury and Dunn putting up nice looking numbers in extended minutes, Minnesota decides to prematurely pull the plug on their Spanish floor general, selling low on his value with a trade rather than building on it or waiting to see if he and Dunn can co-exist.

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KAT only makes minimal strides after his earth-shattering rookie season, Wiggins has yet another decent season scoring the basketball while doing little else and LaVine’s three-point shooting comes back down to earth as he looks more and more like a single-faceted player.

The Wolves win around 30-33 games again as Thibodeau rides his starters into the ground. Minnesota misses out on playoff spot, but doesn’t quite lose enough games to earn another top-5 pick to add to their stellar core.

Next: Predictions

Predictions

While the Timberwolves figure to be an improved team in the West next season, there will also be a learning curve for these young players and their new head coach. Thibodeau should quickly erect a more competent defense in Minnesota, but don’t expect that 11th ranked offense to remain intact either.

At this point, a playoff berth founded upon internal development and the arrival of a new head coach seems like a bit much to ask, even if KAT expands upon his terrific rookie season as expected.

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It also feels unlikely the West has another down year where 40-ish wins is enough for a top-eight seed, even if the only true “locks” in the conference right now are the Warriors, Spurs and Clippers.

Teams like the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns could ALL be in contention for those final five playoff spots.

Ultimately, the growth of KAT, Wiggins and LaVine should be enough for around 37 wins or so, which will put them smack dab in the middle of the tankers and bottom-feeder playoff teams.

That’s not the worst place to be in a deep 2017 NBA Draft, however, and the Wolves are in a pretty ideal spot anyway. They have a brand new coach who will whip these youngsters into shape for the long haul, and if they fail to make the playoffs this year, they have the excuse of a new head coach and inexperienced players, not to mention the reward of a top draft pick to fall back on.

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If they exceed expectations and manage to make the playoffs, the loss of a high draft pick won’t hurt since Minnesota’s young core will have proven it’s ready to take the next step. The Timberwolves might still be a year away from their postseason return, but make no mistake about it: There’s plenty of reason to be excited for the 2016-17 season.