LaMarcus Aldridge: Top 5 Free Agency Destinations

A year ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that LaMarcus Aldridge would be spending the remainder of his career with the Portland Trail Blazers. After an unfortunate injury to Wesley Matthews and a disappointing first round playoff exit against the Memphis Grizzlies, however, Aldridge and the Blazers could be at a crossroads.

To be clear, Aldridge is not on poor terms with the team where he’s spent all nine of his NBA seasons. But as many superstars do once they reach their 30s, LMA could surveilling the field, looking for a more ideal situation that will allow him to compete for a title before his prime is over.

Does Portland fit that category? Could currently crappy teams like the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers sneak in and steal his attention with a mega offer? With the Blazers, Aldridge could make a maximum of $109 million over five years. Anywhere else, the best he could do is $81 million over four years.

Bearing that in mind, it’s unlikely that money is the sole determinant here. If Aldridge wants to leave Portland, it’ll be so that he can join a team that’s ready to win titles now.

But what teams fit that category AND have the capability of clearing enough cap space to sign him? We’re still months away from free agency, but in the interest of being prepared for his possible departure (which, The Oregonian reports those odds may be close to 50-50), here’s a look at the five best free agency destinations for LaMarcus Aldridge.

Just Missed The Cut: Washington Wizards, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns

Next: One Honorable Mention...

Honorable Mention: Cleveland Cavaliers

This one obviously only applies if Kevin Love opts out and heads somewhere else during free agency this summer, but given his up-and-down relationship with LeBron James over the past year, we have to include this possibility.

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On the one hand, it seems unlikely Love goes elsewhere. With 4-6 months of rehabilitation for that dislocated shoulder ahead of him, his free agency value might not be as high on the market as it is in Cleveland. The Cavaliers know how he fits into their offense and despite the public perception that he took a major step backward this year, Love was simply filling his role.

The Cavs’ top priority this summer should be keeping Love, since he’s a better fit at power forward than Aldridge. Both can spread the floor with a perimeter shot, but Love’s touch extends beyond the arc (consistently). Love is also a better passer, he’s younger and we know the Cavs can compete for a title with him in the lineup.

But if the Cavs do lose out on the Love sweepstakes this summer, Aldridge would be their best possible alternative.

However, Cleveland would have to execute a sign-and-trade to make it happen, which would be difficult because Portland wouldn’t be particularly inclined to give their star up. Even if the Cavaliers put together a package that satisfied the Blazers, that might be an indication they’d be giving up too much.

Next: No. 5

5. Dallas Mavericks

The only real appeal that we can see here is that Aldridge is from Dallas originally. Other than that, heading to the Mavericks would make absolutely no sense for a player who wants to win now.

Rajon Rondo, Tyson Chandler, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, J.J. Barea, Greg Smith, Ricky Ledo and Amar’e Stoudemire are all set to become unrestricted free agents this summer. Al-Farouq Aminu will be opting out so he can earn more money as a free agent. Raymond Felton and Monta Ellis both have player options as well, though only Ellis is expected to test the market.

The point is, this team’s roster is in a state of flux with a ton of players looking for better deals somewhere else.

Of those free agents, the ones that Dallas will have the most interest in re-signing are Chandler, Barea and Aminu, who played himself into a nice new contract with his strong performance in the playoffs. But the Mavs would likely make Aldridge their top priority if ESPN’s Marc Stein is to be believed about his interest in heading home to Dallas.

So if that’s the case, how would Dallas’ frontcourt work, exactly? A frontcourt duo of Aldridge and Dirk isn’t stopping anybody, which is an even bigger problem since Nowitzki’s offense has rapidly declined over the last year. That means re-signing Chandler or another defensive center should be another top priority for the sake of having a semi-passable interior defense.

In that Nowitzki-Aldridge-Chandler trio, nobody’s capable of moving out to the wing. Dirk has said he’d come off the bench next season if need be, but from Aldridge’s perspective, how does heading home to Dallas move him closer to a title? Not only are the Mavs in the brutal West, but Dirk is in his twilight years and their backcourt of Rondo and Ellis is likely gone.

With the Mavs in need of a new star backcourt, Aldridge’s contract would suck up too much cap space for Dallas to be able to sign any talented guards and upgrade their status to “title contenders.” The Mavs aren’t locked into re-signing Tyson Chandler, but can they manage to land Aldridge AND another star free agent like DeAndre Jordan, who has been mentioned before?

Given Mark Cuban’s recent failed history in that respect, I don’t see the home run play being there for the Mavericks.

Next: No. 4

4. Atlanta Hawks

Hear me out. Though the Hawks haven’t really been mentioned much in this budding Aldridge conversation, they’d make far more sense for LMA than half the teams that are being mentioned (looking at you, Lakers, Knicks and Celtics).

For one thing, joining the Hawks would move Aldridge to the East, giving him a far easier path to the NBA Finals than he’s ever had out West. But unlike the Celtics or Knicks, he wouldn’t have to wait through a rebuilding project.

Atlanta has only $39.2 million on the books for next season, which means they have some flexibility. Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll and Pero Antic all become unrestricted free agents this summer, but if the Hawks could find a way to get Aldridge and keep Carroll, they should absolutely do so.

Swapping Millsap for Aldridge would certainly come with some adjustments for both LMA and the Hawks. Atlanta’s offense is predicated on ball movement and Millsap’s a more advanced three-point shooter. Aldridge, talented as he is, can be a bit of a ball-stopper at times, which doesn’t make him a perfect fit in Mike Budenholzer’s system.

That being said, Aldridge vastly improved his range this past season and LMA is an individual upgrade from Millsap. Under the 2014-15 Coach of the Year, I’m sure the Hawks would find a way to utilize Aldridge’s superstar talents in a much easier conference.

Next: No. 3

3. Portland Trail Blazers

Last summer, Aldridge decided not to sign an extension to remain in Portland beyond this year. The reason? So he could earn a five-year, $109 million extension this summer from the Blazers. As a major reassurance to Rip City fans, Aldridge told The Oregonian that he was going to re-sign this summer because he wants to be “the best Blazer ever.”

A lot can change in a year’s time.

Last summer’s comments pretty much set it in stone that he’d be returning. But his comments over the last few weeks have left a lot of room for interpretation.

“Of course I love being here, and I’m thankful for everything the city has given me, thankful for my time here,” Aldridge told The Oregonian. “It’s been an amazing nine years and of course I’m not trying to make that end.”

LeBron James probably wasn’t trying to break the hearts of Cleveland Cavaliers fans when he left in 2010, but he did it anyway to find greener pastures. If Aldridge was really 100 percent dedicated to being a Blazer for life, why wouldn’t he just come out and say he’s staying?

The truth is, there’s a very good possibility he leaves. According to ESPN’s Marc Stein, the whispers are that Aldridge feels somewhat under-appreciated with an increased focus on Damian Lillard. That, and the undeniable truth that this franchise time as a contender could be approaching midnight, means this team could be reaching a turning point.

Obviously that depends on Aldridge, but the roster is in a state of flux. As many as eight players could become free agents this summer. Lillard is in line for a contract extension that could be worth $120 million over five years. Wesley Matthews is an unrestricted free agent coming off a major Achilles injury. Arron Afflalo is set to test the free agency market and Aldridge’s frontcourt mate Robin Lopez may do the same.

The Blazers may have already reached their ceiling and if Aldridge reaches that same conclusion, it’d be hard to fault him for wanting to move somewhere where he has a better shot at winning a title, especially since he’s already 30 years old.

That being said, Portland has been Aldridge’s home for the last nine years. I don’t doubt that he meant it when he said he wants to be the greatest Blazer ever, and he could add another year and an extra $28 million to his contract if he re-signed in Rip City.

There are also the positive signs and recent growth everyone saw out of C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard in the playoffs this year. When healthy, the Blazers had one of the best starting fives in the NBA. What this will come down to is whether or not Aldridge has faith that the current core will A) stay intact and B) be able to contend before his prime is done.

Next: No. 2

2. Houston Rockets

To be clear, the Rockets would have to do some MAJOR roster configuring in order to clear up enough salary cap room to sign Aldridge to anything close to a max contract. Next season’s salary cap is projected to be about $67.1 million, but the Rockets already have $60.8 million on the books if you include Kostas Papanikolaou‘s $4.8 million team option and Corey Brewer‘s $4.9 million player option.

Even more troubling, the Rockets still have integral pieces of their roster to re-sign. Patrick Beverley and K.J. McDaniels will be restricted free agents. The contracts of Josh Smith and Jason Terry come off the books this summer, but J-Smoove has played exceedingly well off the bench alongside Dwight Howard.

As we’ve already mentioned, Aldridge could make up to $109 million on a five-year contract in Portland. Everywhere else, he’s looking at about four years and $81 million (at most). For the Rockets to be able to pay Aldridge $20 million a season, they’d have to gut the roster.

James Harden and Dwight Howard alone will make $38 million next season, so Brewer, Papanikolaou and Trevor Ariza ($8.2 million next season) would have to be gone, and that’s just for starters.

A trio of Harden, Howard and Aldridge would make the Rockets title contenders, but would they take a step backward by getting rid of so many helpful role players? Would they be able to fill those holes with minimum salary players? And would Aldridge be okay with a diminished role, similar to what Chris Bosh and Kevin Love took on in the last few seasons?

On paper, a Harden-Aldridge-Howard trio sounds great. Making it happen is another matter, especially since the Rockets are already one of the best teams in the NBA without LMA.

Next: No. 1

1. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are just so unfair, aren’t they? It’s not enough for them to win five championships in the last 18 years. It’s not enough that they have a capable superstar replacement for Tim Duncan waiting in the wings with Kawhi Leonard. But if the early whispers from ESPN’s Marc Stein are to be believed, the Spurs could be at the top of Aldridge’s free agency wish list.

The allure is easy to understand. At age 30, this could be the last max deal of Aldridge’s career. He wants to win a championship. Going to San Antonio might give him the best opportunity to do so. There’d be an undeniable amount of pressure on him as the heir to Duncan’s throne, but the Texas teams have an undeniable appeal with LMA being a Dallas native.

The Spurs have a lot of flexibility this summer and if Aldridge is interested, they’ll have some decisions to make. After all, Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayres and Matt Bonner ALL become unrestricted free agents this summer.

Cory Joseph and Aron Baynes are restricted free agents, and we haven’t even mentioned that Kawhi Leonard is eligible for a max-level extension as a restricted free agent the Spurs will DEFINITELY lock up.

Are Duncan and Ginobili ready to retire, or do they have another year in them? If they want to go another year, would Aldridge prefer to sign a one-year deal before the salary cap explodes in 2016-17 so he could rejoin the free agency market and make even more money? These are all questions that could factor into what kind of contract Aldridge pursues if he does want to join San Antonio’s championship culture.

With only $33.8 million guaranteed on the books, the Spurs have plenty of room to work with. But after Kawhi’s max contract, deals for lifelong Spurs like Duncan and Ginobili if they want them and contracts for role players like Green, Belinelli and/or Baynes, money might get a little tighter.

But with a team that is all about togetherness like the Spurs, isn’t it possible we see Duncan, Ginobili and Green all take bargain deals to stick around? If Aldridge wants to win, it might not get better than teaming up with Gregg Popovich, R.C. Buford and a budding two-way star in Leonard. Can you imagine a more terrifying old man frontcourt than Aldridge and Duncan?

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