NBA Awards Watch: Final MVP Pick For 2014-15

Welcome to our final week of NBA Awards Watch (Week 25), where we take pride in attempting to mix small sample sizes from the past week and season-long projections for the league’s most important award!

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In an effort to make some sense of the wide open 2014-15 MVP race, we’ve taken a look at the top 10 candidates for each and every week of NBA action. Last week, we narrowed the conversation down to our top five and examined why Stephen Curry is undoubtedly going to win the league’s most prestigious individual award.

This week, we’re narrowing the field down once more to decide once and for all between Curry and James Harden. Chef Curry vs. The Beard. One of the NBA’s most likable baby-faced assassins vs. the guy that kicked LeBron James in the groin. The best player on the best team vs. one of the NBA’s greatest free throw-launching villains.

Has this historic season from the Golden State Warriors won Curry MVP honors? Does Harden have a better argument carrying what’s left of the Houston Rockets‘ banged up roster? Who deserves it, who will win it and is there any chance the answer to those questions is the same person?

We’re going to dive into this MVP debate head on, taking a look at the every angle of the debate no matter how major or seemingly minuscule. But first, here are our end-of-season honorable mentions:

Honorable Mentions: Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Chris Paul

Next: Individual Numbers

Individual Numbers

The Warriors and Rockets will both play their regular season finales tonight, but one game won’t (and shouldn’t) sway the vote on the last night of the season. At this point, we basically have all the information we need, regardless of where the Rockets finish in the Western Conference standings (more on this in a bit).

Bearing that in mind, here’s a look at the basic numbers for each of our top MVP candidates:

• Curry: 79 games, 32.8 MPG, 23.9 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 SPG, .488/.442/.914 shooting, 28.0 PER
• Harden: 80 games, 36.9 MPG, 27.5 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG, .440/.375/.866 shooting, 26.8 PER

Based on the raw stat lines, it’s hard to determine who has the edge. Some might be inclined to go with Curry based on his superior shooting percentages and Player Efficiency Rating. Others might feel the extra minutes, scoring and rebounding Harden brings to the table gives him the advantage since his assists aren’t too far off and his shooting percentages are quite good as well.

Like the majority of this MVP discussion, it’s really open to interpretation. Do you value Curry’s ultra efficiency in limited minutes (compared to Harden)? Or do you value Harden being on the floor because his team needs him to be?

Let’s take a look at some other numbers that might give a clearer picture. Curry’s basic statline doesn’t look quite as good because he plays fewer minutes per game (usually because the Dubs have completely blown out their opponent by the fourth quarter). The Per 36 Minutes numbers shed some light on how close these two really are:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/14/2015.

After a look at some of the advanced statistics, per NBA.com, the balance starts to sway ever so slightly in Curry’s favor. His net rating (16.8) easily trumps Harden’s (5.3). Curry has an effective field goal percentage of 59.4 percent compared to Harden’s 51.5. Curry also has the edge in true shooting percentage, besting the Beard 63.9 percent to 60.4 percent.

That being said, Harden keeps things pretty close in most other categories. His 33.8 assist percentage is a tad shy of Curry’s 35.8 percent, but that’s a pretty darn impressive number for a non-point guard. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Harden has a 12.2 to 11.5 edge in offensive win shares and he leads the league in total win shares with 16.2.

Curry follows up in third at 15.6 total win shares, but that’s impressive considering the gap in minutes between Harden and Chef Curry. Per 48 minutes, Curry averages more win shares (2.89) than Harden (.264).

Curry’s absurd offensive rating of 114.0 ranks fifth in the league. The only four players ahead of him? All members of the Los Angeles Clippers, the league’s top ranked offense. Harden follows up in 44th at 107.5.

As you can see, even in a straight forward statistical comparison, the numbers can be interpreted subjectively. Normally I’d give the slightest of edges to Curry here, since he’s been the most efficient player per possession in the league this season. But Harden actually plays those extra minutes, which makes it hard to give Curry credit for what he might do if he played those extra minutes.

For our first comparison, I’m taking the European route and declaring it a tie.

Advantage: Tie

Next: Team Success

Team Success

Curry is pretty clearly the runaway favorite here. His Golden State Warriors currently have a 66-15 record with a gimme game against the Denver Nuggets to close the season. Even if Steve Kerr rests his starters, the Dubs are still 38-2 at home this season.

The Rockets, meanwhile, are 55-26 with one game against the Utah Jazz remaining. Houston is chasing the second seed in the West, but they’ll fall short if the San Antonio Spurs win their season finale against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Whether Houston finishes second or sixth in the West is irrelevant; that fourth spot is reserved for the Portland Trail Blazers simply because they’re the Northwest Division winners and the gap between the Rockets, Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers is razor thin.

But it’s worth noting that even if the team in second finishes with 56 wins on the season, the Warriors will finish at least 10 games ahead in the standings. Harden has absolutely carried the Rockets this season, but Curry has led the NBA’s most dynamic team by a mile.

The MVP race shouldn’t boil down to the best player on the team with the best record, but it’s definitely a factor when you’re as prolific as Steph Curry and your team is as good as the 2014-15 Golden State Warriors.

Advantage: Curry

The “Valuable” Aspect

Technically speaking, if we’re going by the exact definition of the phrase “Most Valuable Player,” it’s hard to choose anyone other than Harden. The term often gives way to a common measure used to examine MVP candidates: If you were to take a certain player off their team, how bad would that team be without him?

In the Warriors case, they’d be fine. They wouldn’t be the world-beating contender they are now, obviously, but they’d still be an elite defense. They’d still be a decent offense based on their impressive ball movement. They’d still have a star in Klay Thompson, a guy who can drop 37 points in a half…or in a quarter, even.

With the improvement of Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes, the defense of Andrew Bogut and the strengthening of the bench, the Warriors would probably still be in the running for a playoff spot without Curry in the wild West. The Rockets? Not so much.

Golden State’s second-leading scorer after Curry (23.9 PPG) is his fellow Splash Brother Thompson, who is averaging 21.6 points per game. The Rockets’ second-leading scorer after Harden (27.5 PPG)? Trevor Ariza, who averages a meager 12.9 points per game. (Yes, Dwight Howard averages 15.8 PPG, but the guy has played 40 games this season. Cut me some slack.)

That’s a simplistic way to measure value. Curry’s point differential of +11.5 dwarfs Harden’s +3.8, indicating that the Dubs would be a very different team without Chef Curry. But there’s no way in hell anyone could take that statistic at face value when comparing Curry’s supporting cast and Harden’s.

Harden is the NBA leader in assists leading to a three-point shot, and the manner in which he produces such shots is masterful, as Grantland’s Kirk Goldsberry explored a few weeks ago.

Harden’s usage percentage of 31.3 percent is sixth in the league, compared to Curry’s 28.4 percent (eighth) — and that gap grows wider when you consider that Curry, a point guard, has the ball in his hands more often due to his position. Harden has the ball in his hands more because his team needs him to make things happen on offense.

Saying that Curry’s skills wouldn’t translate elsewhere or basing the MVP race on a hypothetical argument about what would happen if you swapped the two stars is ignorant. But without Curry, the Dubs would have had enough talent to still be competitive. Without Harden this season, the Rockets probably would’ve been a lottery team.

Advantage: Harden

Next: Defense

Defense

When talking about two offensively superb players like Curry and Harden, it’d be easy to forget that there are two ends of the floor. Before this past summer with Team USA Basketball, both were seen as incapable defenders — Curry for his lack of size and know-how, Harden because…well the dude was lazy on the ball and constantly fell asleep off the ball.

This season, both players have vastly improved their defense. Curry can hang with the elite point guards in the West on the defensive end and was leading the league in steals for a considerable portion of the season; Harden is actually trying on defense, he (usually) pays attention off the ball and he’s averaging nearly as many steals per game as Curry.

According to NBA.com, Curry’s defensive rating (97.1) is much better than Harden’s (102.1), but consider Curry plays on the league’s best defense while Harden is on the NBA’s sixth best defense. That’s not to say Harden is a better defender, but the two are tied in defensive win shares (4.1 each), per Basketball-Reference.

As ESPN’s Ethan Strauss covered in full detail, however, Curry has actually evolved into a very good defender; Harden is just “not as bad.” Curry’s quick hands help him strip opponents, he’s much more consistent with on-the-ball pressure and thanks to his amazingly high basketball IQ, he’s continued to develop into quite the reader of passing lanes.

Curry holds his opponents to 40.8 percent shooting, per NBA.com, which is 2.6 percent worse than those opponents would normally shoot. Harden, by comparison, holds opponents to 42.7 percent shooting, which is 1.9 percent worse than they’d normally shoot.

Harden is better at defending three-pointers than Curry, per NBA.com, and he’s also a better shot-blocker (0.7 per game compared to Curry’s 0.2). But Harden is still prone to occasional bouts of defensive laziness on the nights where he has to carry Houston’s offense, and overall, it’s not a stretch to say Curry has become the superior defender.

Advantage: Curry

Next: Narrative

Narrative

Don’t lie to yourselves or anyone else; the NBA’s MVP Award is very much driven by narrative. We’re looking for the player having the best season, not just the best player. Otherwise Michael Jordan and LeBron James would have owned the last few decades with names like Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan sprinkled in here and there.

The phrase I keep hearing associated with Curry’s MVP case is, “He’s the best player on the league’s best team.” I feel like that’s selling Curry short; his narrative is more along the lines of “He’s the supernova that ignites one of the greatest teams in NBA history.”

If the Warriors reach 67 wins, they’ll join nine other teams in NBA history to accomplish such a feat. Of those nine other teams, seven of them went on to win the championship. The only two that did not were the 1972-73 Boston Celtics (lost in the Eastern Conference Finals) and the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks (lost in the first round to the “We Believe!” Warriors).

Harden’s MVP narrative? The guy has a really cool beard, he looks like a black King Leonidas, he carried the Rockets this year, he plays defense now and he likes to stir the pot. Kind of pales in comparison right?

Even if the Dubs disappoint and fall short of a title this year, the MVP Award is a regular season award. What matters is that behind Curry’s stellar play, the Dubs have set a franchise record in wins; they’ve won the Pacific Division for the first time in nearly four decades; they’ve put up a historic +10.1 point differential, and they locked up the top seed in the West weeks ago.

The Warriors are the NBA’s top ranked defense and its No. 2 defense. No offense to the Rockets (sixth in defensive rating and 11th in offensive rating), but they definitely take a backseat even with Harden carrying his team. While valiant, it’s hard not to get caught up in one of the best regular season teams we’ve ever seen. That narrative definitely fuels the fires of the MVP case Chef Curry is cooking.

Advantage: Curry

Next: Signature Games

Signature Games

We’ll keep this as short as possible. Most recently, Harden dropped 41 points, six rebounds and six assists on Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who were desperate for a win to stay in the playoff mix. Four days before that, he was busy dropping a career-high 51 points (not to mention eight rebounds and six assists) on the Sacramento Kings.

About a week before, Harden dropped a 44-7-4 stat line on the Indiana Pacers’ defense, even more impressive considering how desperate they’ve been over the last month for wins. Four days before that, Harden had put up a then-career-high 50 points (plus 10 boards) against the Denver Nuggets.

I can keep going. Two weeks before that, he put up a 38-12-12 triple-double in a win over the Detroit Pistons. Two weeks prior to that triple-double, Harden had slapped up a 31-11-10 on the Minnesota Timberwolves, knocking down clutch jumpers over the stellar defense of rookie Andrew Wiggins in an enjoyable shooting guard showdown.

A few weeks before THAT, he finished with 40 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists in a big win over the Phoenix Suns, helping his team overcome a fourth quarter deficit by scoring 20 points in the final period and taking over the game. Two nights before, he had put up a 45-9-8 line on the Portland Trail Blazers.

But that’s not all! In a 33-10-6 performance against the Phoenix Suns in late January, the Beard also knocked in the game-winner over P.J. Tucker and Isaiah Thomas, prompting one of many (awesome) “The Dance Never Ends” commercials.

If you still want more, he put up a 31-10-9 on the Thunder in mid-January, and recorded his first triple-double of the season against the Nuggets on Dec. 13. Simply put, the Beard has been game for absurd stat lines all season long.

None of this is meant to diminish what Curry has done this season, but it’s a simple fact: when you demolish teams in three quarters, your final stat lines don’t look as great.

That’s not to say he hasn’t had his fair share of signature games. He was superb in the game that “won” him the MVP race, when he scored 45 points on 17-of-13 shooting (8-of-13 from downtown) against the Portland Trail Blazers. He also broke the NBA’s single season record (his own record) for three-pointers in the process:

A few weeks prior, he demoralized a Phoenix Suns team that was still competitive with 36-6-5, scoring 15 of Golden State’s 16 points in one spurt to put the road game away for good. There was the time he helped the Dubs cap off a monumental comeback against the Boston Celtics with 37 points in 38 minutes.

He matched Harden’s career-high 51 points with a season-high 51 against the Dallas Mavericks in early February. He finished with a 34-9-7 stat line against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he dropped a 40-7-6 on the Miami Heat, and he matched Harden’s game-winner with one of his own against the Orlando Magic on Dec. 2 (prompting his own commercial).

That being said, Curry didn’t have the same number of memorable games that Harden did this season. That feels odd to say it about the player who lit up Twitter this season, but it’s true. Curry may have been more signature moments, but we’ll get to that. In terms of memorable games with jaw-dropping stat lines, nobody except perhaps Russell Westbrook has the advantage over Harden.

Advantage: Harden

Next: Signature Moves

Signature Moments

Highlight plays don’t decide an MVP race, but they very well could define it. While it may seem silly to consider a category like this in an MVP discussion, keep in mind that Curry’s monster night against the Blazers, which was teeming with highlight plays, is a game that “decided” the 2014-15 MVP race for many.

Without highlight plays, we wouldn’t watch the game. Shouldn’t our MVP be someone exciting who fills up the stat sheet AND creates nightly Vine gems?

Harden may have had more signature stat lines, but nobody had more memorable moments and individual plays this season that Steph Curry. The guy’s game is tailor-made for Vine, YouTube and Twitter highlights with the way he can turn a broken play into a Top 10 highlight in an instant.

When it comes to his handles, you have to respect his ability to pull off a flashy pass. But as the Los Angeles Clippers found out, you also have to respect his ability to randomly dribble through three defenders, create the tiniest bit of separation and launch the most ill-advised three-pointer, which, of course, went in because he’s Stephen Curry:

There is no better shooter in the league right now, but for those contentious diehard fans who somehow haven’t been watching Curry this season, there is definitely no better shooter in the NBA off the dribble. Curry is an absolute magician when it comes to freeing himself up with just enough space to launch a three in his defender’s eye. In related news, R.I.P. Chandler Parsons:

What’s funny is Parsons (relatively) stuck with Curry on that play. But the guy cannot be stopped when he gets in the zone. Think of the greatest heat check you ever had at your local gym. You probably made, what, three or four threes in a row? Curry does that too, except he plays in the NBA, his heat checks can go even longer and he does it on a nightly basis.

There were some games, like against the Milwaukee Bucks, for example, when Curry was having an off shooting night and came alive in a short little spurt to put Golden State’s opponent away for good. I mean, come on:

To be fair, James Harden is no stranger to shake and bake either. He’s a dynamic player with the ball in his hands and has no qualms about drilling step-back threes in peoples faces. Remember what he did to poor Ricky Rubio?

Curry is the best in the NBA at creating separation to free up his three-point shot, but don’t sleep on James Harden step-backs either. All season long he’s been making defenders look foolish with that go-to move that has yet to be stopped. Isolation basketball usually fails in the playoffs, but in the regular season, it looks pretty damn good:

Unfortunately, for all of Harden’s abilities in one-on-one iso plays, most of them are overlooked because he gets to the foul line so much. The Beard is a master at getting to the foul line, and spare me your complaints about flopping or looking for contact because, to be honest, we have never seen someone this efficient at getting to the charity stripe.

Harden leads the league in made free throws and free throw attempts by a mile, and while that helps him be more efficient since not everyone can be a near-member of the 50-40-90 club like Steph Curry, it’s not quite as entertaining as Curry heat checks.

In that respect, Curry easily edges Harden. The Beard has some fine highlight plays to his name this season, but Curry was pretty much made for Vine, even if Harden does fun stuff like this all the time:

In regard to celebrations, Curry’s goggles celebration (for his teammates on the bench) ignited Twitter, but to be fair, Harden has been doing the celebration Curry should’ve been doing all along by stirring the pot every time he starts cooking. That’s really the only advantage Harden has here, however, so we have to decisively rule in Curry’s favor once again.

Advantage: Curry

Next: Likability

Likability

Let’s see here….the Baby-Faced Assassin vs. the Beard. The guy whose game is infectious vs. the guy who gets to the free throw line constantly. The guy who lights it up from downtown and enters heat checks that ignite Twitter for days vs. the guy who “flops” and kicks LeBron James in the crotch.

I shouldn’t even entertain the possibility that Harden is as beloved by NBA fans as Curry is. Curry is a humble guy and the quiet, unassuming leader of the league’s best team. Harden is the guy who used to only eat with Dwight Howard, the guy who’s generally seen as an iso-player that might never accomplish anything in the playoffs.

Harden, I love ya, but it’s no secret that Curry has the likability factor going for him.

Advantage: Curry

Next: The Verdict

The Verdict – Who Deserves It and Who Wins It

In the end, you can’t go wrong with either Steph Curry or James Harden. Both are having tremendous MVP-caliber seasons and in any other year, this would be no contest. This is one of the closest MVP races of the last decade and by definitively choosing one  over the other, we’re really splitting hairs.

Curry, the winner of five of our eight categories here, clearly has the ever-so-slight edge. He’s probably going to win MVP no matter how many columns are written about how Harden deserves it or how he’s been carrying the Rockets to a stellar record all season long.

If I had a vote, however, I’d probably send it Harden’s way. Curry is a highlight reel waiting to happen, he’s likable, he’s statistically just as good and he’s the phenomenal leader of one of the best regular season teams in NBA history; but giving Harden a second place vote just feels so unnatural and since everyone else will be doing it soon, I feel like I can’t go wrong giving him a first place vote while I can.

I know, I know, that logic is flawed. If everyone thought that way, Curry would get snubbed this year and all the Harden haters would rage digital wars on Twitter. When the Rockets get eliminated in the playoffs, no matter how far down the line, the “Guess he shouldn’t have won MVP” comments would rain down like Curry triples.

But I can’t get my head around how good this Rockets team is with Harden despite the fact that they really shouldn’t be because of injuries to Howard, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas throughout the season.

That’s not the deciding factor in an MVP race, but it is prevalent and both candidates are so darn close in almost every category. Ultimately, both players are deserving, and whoever finishes second will have one of the greatest non-MVP seasons we’ve ever seen.

At the end of the day, I believe Curry will win, and he’s more than deserving. But if I had a vote, I’d give it to the guy who will probably finish second in the voting, James Harden.

Next: Stephen Curry: Greatest Shooter In NBA History?

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