Stephen Curry: Greatest Shooter In NBA History?

No offense to Reggie Miller or Ray Allen, but Stephen Curry will go down in NBA history as the greatest shooter of all time. Based on his incredible MVP campaign this season, it’s tempting to give him that title already. That’s a tad premature given the fact that this is only his sixth season in the NBA, but the point still stands: Chef Curry’s cooking is unlike anything we’ve ever tasted.

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Aside from having a beautiful looking, unbelievably quick release, Curry is a whole new breed of shooter because of his ability to knock down shots off the dribble with the same deadly efficiency as catch-and-shoot situations. He’s on pace to shatter some serious NBA records and already has a few to his name.

Unlike a guy like Kyle Korver, Curry is relied upon for more than spot-up shooting. Both are players you can design offenses around, but Curry’s repertoire on that end extends far beyond running off cuts as a spot-up shooter or a decoy.

But even if we were to simply reduce this conversation to shooting alone, everything we’ve seen from Curry thus far in his career suggests that when his time is done, he will indisputably be the greatest shooter the game has ever seen.

Next: Catch And Shoot

Catch And Shoot:

The easiest and most basic way to measure a shooter is by their release in catch-and-shoot situations. The game of basketball is predicated on ball and player movement. Offenses that are iso-heavy typically don’t do well in this league and if you can’t knock down open — or even contested — looks provided by teammates, well, what kind of shooter are you?

For starters, then, by taking a look at his remarkable 2014-15 season, Curry more than passes this most basic measure of his value as a shooter.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, Curry ranks third in true shooting percentage (a measure that takes two-point field goals, three-point field goals and free throws into account) at 63.8 percent, trailing only Kyle Korver’s 69.8 percent and Tyson Chandler‘s 69.1 percent.

Curry also ranks second in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (a measure that takes into account the fact that three-point field goals are worth more than two-point field goals) at 59.3 percent, trailing only DeAndre Jordan‘s absurd 71.0 percent.

Per NBA.com, Curry shoots 45.5 percent on catch-and-shoot looks, which isn’t an overwhelmingly impressive mark. But his effective field goal percentage on such shots is 65.1 percent, indicating just how accurate he is on catch-and-shoot attempts from three-point range.

On shots with zero dribbles, Curry knocks down an astonishing 46.8 percent of his three-point attempts, and his three-point percentage on catch-and-shoot attempts is 48.3 percent. The fact that he takes those kinds of shots at a frequency of 20.9 percent is a further testament to his effectiveness as a pure shooter.

Among players who have played at least 50 games and attempt at least two catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game, Curry ranks second in the NBA in percentage — trailing only Korver’s 50.4 percent.

You don’t have to be a genius to figure this one out, you simply have to watch the Golden State Warriors play: if you leave Stephen Curry open from behind the three-point line, you’re going to have a bad time.

Next: Off The Dribble

Off The Dribble:

There are a lot of great stand-still shooters in the league, however, so in order to understand why Curry’s last three seasons are prompting “greatest shooter ever” debates, it’s important to examine just how good he is off the dribble. After all, that’s what puts him in a league of his own.

When we think of effective players off the dribble in NBA history, we typically think of guys who terrified their opponents in isolation like Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant, or maybe wings who could get to the basket at will like LeBron James or Allen Iverson.

But make no mistake about it, Curry is becoming the new standard in terms of players who can not only beat you off the dribble, but drain a three in your face in the process. Actually, “standard” isn’t fair to the rest of the league. If we’re grading on a Steph Curry curve, everyone else would flunk. I mean, this kind of stuff is just plain stupid, except Curry does it regularly:

Pull-up shots constitute 44.6 percent of all shots that Stephen Curry takes, with 25.8 percent of them coming from three-point territory. That’s a pretty high number, but not quite as eye-popping as the absurd 42.5 percent that Curry shoots on pull-up three-pointers — the best mark on such shots in the NBA.

Curry takes 4.4 pull-up threes per game. The next closest is Damian Lillard at 3.9 per game…but Lillard only converts at a 33.3 percent rate.

Pull-up statistics aren’t the only way to evaluate Curry as the NBA’s most lethal shooter off the dribble, however. On three-point shots that come from one dribble, per NBA.com, Curry converts at a 45.3 percent clip, indicating his intelligence with shot fakes. When defenders come flying at him, he’s capable of pump faking his man into the air, taking a dribble to relocate, and draining the more wide open look.

But it’s his ability to manipulate his defender in one-on-one situations that makes him such a magnificent shooter. Curry is the ultimate heat check, but it’s the manner in which he makes some of those step-back three-pointers that ignites Oracle Arena into a frenzy.

On attempts resulting from 3-6 dribbles, Curry is a 40.1 percent shooter from downtown. On attempts resulting from seven or more dibbles, Curry is shooting an absolutely insane 50.6 percent from three-point range, and it’s not like such shots are completely rare, since he shoots them at a 6.7 percent frequency.

Think about that: 6.7 percent of this guy’s shots are three-point shots after seven or more dribbles and he makes more than half of them. “Chef Curry” couldn’t be a more perfect nickname for a guy who shakes and bakes his defenders before sprinkling in some extra humiliation by draining a three in their eye.

So in addition to being a tremendous pure shooter, Curry is a master off the dribble and can pull-up from virtually anywhere.

By comparison, pull-up threes only constitute 8.6 percent of Kyle Korver’s shot selection. Catch and shoot threes, however, comprise 65.1 percent of his shots, and he shoots 50.3 percent on such shots. Catch-and-shoot shots in general comprise an absurd 73.8 percent of the shots Korver takes.

This serves as a testament to how effective Korver is as a spot-up shooter coming off cuts and screens, but it’s also a testament to how tremendous Curry is that he’s posting comparable three-point percentages with so many of his coming off the dribble.

Next: All-Time Pace

All-Time Pace

The only reason I’m hesitant to declare that Curry is already the greatest shooter ever is that he still has some work to do. He’s certainly on pace to be the best shooter the game has ever seen after a few more seasons like this, but if Curry were to never play another game after this season, could we really put him ahead of Ray Allen or Reggie Miller?

On the all-time three-point leaderboard, Allen sits atop the group at 2,973 made three-pointers. Miller is in second, with 2,560. Currently, Curry’s 1,186 made threes has him at 50th all-time. That’s pretty darn good for a guy only in his sixth season, but he’s still got a way to go.

To be clear, Curry doesn’t have to climb to the very top of this list in order to supplant Ray Allen as the greatest shooter to ever play the game. After all, it took Allen 18 seasons in order to approach the 3,000 mark. If Curry were to play 12 more relatively healthy seasons, even as a spot-up shooter once he reaches his twilight years, there’s no doubt he’d reach 3,000.

This year, Curry has set a new single season record for made three-pointers with 281, and there are still two games left. The record he broke? His own, when he made 272 threes in 2012-13. Curry has never shot less than 42.4 percent from three-point territory in a single season during his six years in the league.

Of the top five single season records for made three-pointers, Curry owns three of them. Although he trails Allen by a whopping 1,787 made threes right now, Curry only has to make 200 threes for another nine seasons to climb to the top of the list.

That sounds like a lot, but he’s made at least 261 over the last three seasons, so even if he only makes about 250 per season from here on out, it’d only take him seven seasons to get there. Even as athleticism wanes with old age, shooting is a talent that can keep you in the league for years.

The point is, Curry is very much on pace to pass Ray Allen. As long as he stays healthy, he could very well be the NBA’s all-time leader in made threes in six or seven years…and that’s excluding his twilight years where he could get a spot-up shooter in a role similar to the one Allen played in his latter years.

Next: Conclusion

Conclusion

Curry is already a proven sniper from three-point range. He’s added a Three-Point Shootout belt to his resume, he’s making a ridiculous 44.2 percent of the eight three-pointers he takes on a nightly basis and on his best team yet, Curry will have the chance to find real playoff success and solidify his claim to being the best shooter we’ve ever seen.

In the playoffs, the tempo slows down and the defense tightens up. Isolation basketball is not as effective then, but if you wanted anyone in the NBA to take an ill-advised, hero ball-type three with the game on the line, wouldn’t it be Stephen Curry? I mean, the guy doesn’t even have to look at his shot to know it’s going in!

If he continues at this pace, he’ll have all the records and accolades to endorse his supremacy as the greatest shooter of all time. What we’ve seen from him this season, between his efficiency as a spot-up shooter and his deadly penchant for knocking down threes off the dribble, indicates he will be the best shooter of all time.

He’s not quite there yet, because as we mentioned, it’d be hard to put him over Ray Allen’s longevity if he were to stop playing tomorrow. But the trajectory that he’s on undoubtedly has him on a path that no one in NBA history has been on before.

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