The Golden State Warriors will soon look to bounce back from an uneven 2022–23 season. While the then-defending champions did manage to make the second round, they never seemed fully capable of making it back to the NBA Finals.
With an offseason to reload, the Warriors needed to get better to keep pace in a highly competitive Western Conference. Although the Warriors have made a few moves, several teams below them in last season’s standings have gotten better, putting Golden State’s offseason decision-making under scrutiny.
Some of last season’s struggles can be attributed to the team’s injury luck and lack of cohesion, and while they could be better with better luck, it isn’t something that they can bank on. Especially with the Denver Nuggets now the reigning champs and the Phoenix Suns having added firepower to try and keep pace. That leaves the Warriors fighting to be the third-best team in their conference.
After winning four championships in the past nine seasons, it is a clear sign that they are moving in the wrong direction. However, that is only the beginning of their issues. With that in mind, let’s take a look at seven harsh realities about Golden State’s offseason.
Harsh Reality #7: The Warriors traded Jordan Poole too soon.
The decision by the Warriors to trade Jordan Poole in a deal for future Hall of Famer Chris Paul sent shockwaves around the league in the leadup to the NBA Draft. Although a salary-clearing trade was necessary given the team’s luxury tax situation, it drew mixed reviews from many, including myself. I’m not saying that Golden State should not have dealt Poole, but they sold on him too soon.
After acquiring Paul from the Phoenix Suns in the Bradley Beal deal, the Washington Wizards jumped at the chance to trade him to the Warriors. That meant taking back Poole, who is starting a four-year, $128 million deal and had an uneven 2022–23 season and a disastrous playoff run. That likely meant that the Warriors had to pay to find a team willing to take him off their hands and pay they did.
They included former 2022 first-round pick Patrick Baldwin Jr., a second-round pick, a top-20 protected future first-round pick, and Ryan Rollins. However, had they waited closer to the trade deadline, Poole might have improved his trade value enough not to be a negative asset for Golden State. That might have been untenable with Poole’s relationship with Draymond Green, but even then, trading that for Paul probably wasn’t their only option and perhaps not their best one given his questionable fit.
Harsh Reality #6: Chris Paul is an awkward fit, at best.
The decision by the Warriors to acquire 38-year-old Paul from the Wizards surprised many fans who followed the NBA. After all, Paul’s style of play contradicts Golden State’s offensive style, leading to questions about how he would fit in.
He is known for his ability to orchestrate offenses in the half court, primarily as the ball handler in pick and rolls, but he won’t have nearly as much freedom to play the way that he always has with Golden State. To his credit, Paul seems open to changing up his playing style to fit in with the Warriors, though the team will inevitably have to adjust to him too.
If Paul does indeed come off the bench, then the Warriors’ second unit will likely play slower and more methodically, though he could help the team’s offense, which almost always falls off a cliff when Steph Curry rests. He could also help young players such as Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody reach their potential, as he has with many of the younger players that he has previously played with.
Those are both potential positives, but what about when Paul plays with Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Green? Paul isn’t nearly as effective when playing off the ball since he’s one of the best midrange shooters in NBA history, shooting an outrageous 49.3% on shots 10–16 feet over his career.
Taking the ball out of his hands confines him to being just a capable spot-up shooter, whereas putting the ball in Paul’s hands will take it out of Curry’s. Curry can certainly play off the ball, obviously, as can Thompson, but playing Paul as a part of the closing unit might make the lineup less than the sum of its parts.
Harsh Reality #5: Golden State’s two-timelines approach is over.
Prior to the start of last season, the Warriors were attempting a two-timelines approach that would allow them to compete in both the short and long term. However, after trading former number two overall pick James Wiseman for Gary Payton II and dealing Poole for Paul, it’s clear that that is no longer the game plan.
While the Warriors decision to change their course of action may say more about those particular players, it doesn’t change the fact that Golden State got older. Replacing two players in their early twenties with two players in their 30s inevitably pushes the team closer towards aging out of title contention.
Worse yet, although Wiseman and Poole probably weren’t the players to bridge this version of the Warriors to a new era, it does mean that they will likely need to do a full rebuild sooner rather than later. It could ultimately prove to be worth it if it means that Payton and Paul contribute to Golden State making it back to the NBA Finals. Still, it gives them fewer chances to win their fifth championship.
Harsh Reality #4: The Warriors failed to emulate the Spurs model.
The Warriors’ decision to ditch their youth movement in favor of adding more veterans might help them win games, but it means that their goal of emulating the San Antonio Spurs has failed. The Spurs, with coach Gregg Popovich and Hall of Famer Tim Duncan, led the team to unprecedented success over a three-decade span.
The Warriors were hoping to do something similar with Curry and Steve Kerr, but the Spurs accomplished that feat by consistently drafting and developing players to complement their best player. Golden State’s recent draft track record is much spottier, with Kevon Looney being the only Warriors draft pick taken in the last eight years to currently have a spot in their rotation.
Of course, they drafted Curry, Thompson, and Green, but the Spurs drafted Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. They then followed that up by bringing in undrafted players, undervalued free agents, and successful drafting.
Obviously, there are different ways to win a championship, and Golden State’s four championships and six NBA Finals appearances proves that they are successful in their own right. That being said, it’s clear that they aren’t the Spurs, who have continued to identify talent and now have a great young team around number one pick Victor Wembanyama. The Warriors can’t bank on that strategy post-Curry, Thompson, and Green, though there are other ways to rebuild.
Harsh Reality #3: The Warriors paid Draymond Green for his past performance.
After months of speculation about Green’s future with the Warriors, they brought him back on a four-year, $100 million deal. At 33, it’s clear that Green isn’t the same player that he once was, but he still proved his worth during their playoff run. Had Golden State opted to bring him back on a two-year deal worth $50 million, that would have been good value, but by tacking on another two years and adding $50 million to his contract, they paid for past performance.
Bringing back Green likely meant that the team was forced to overpay to keep their championship core together. In theory, that is fine for such an important player. Then again, it was unclear what other team was willing or able to offer him a contract worth more than the mid-level exception.
Worse yet, it provides a precedent that can be used during contract negotiations between Thompson and the Warriors. Thompson is slightly older, and despite coming off a resurgent season, he also previously had two significant injuries. If Green can get a four-year deal out of Golden State, Thompson could ask for a max contract for the same length.
Even if he agrees to a three-year max deal, it will lock the team into an aging core for the next three years, assuming Curry re-signs as well. Paying three aging stars big money past their mid-thirties is risky, to say the least, and had they chosen to give Green a shorter deal, it would have given them an out.
Harsh Reality #2: The Warriors are no longer the best team in California.
For the last decade, the Warriors have largely been the best of the four California teams, but no longer. Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings closed the gap between them and the Warriors last season.
In fact, each had strong off-seasons, putting them at the very least neck and neck with Golden State, perhaps even better. That will mean an even tougher path in the Western Conference playoffs for a team that is talented but hasn’t gotten measurably better than last season.
Running it back might have been their best option considering their standing in the luxury tax and the fact that Curry and Wiggins missed significant time last season. The best-case scenario is that both are relatively healthy, as are Thompson and Green, and Golden State can secure a top-four seed.
Unfortunately, that seems unlikely as their big three ages. Curry, in particular, has been injured for large chunks of three of the last four seasons, and that may have factored into their decision to acquire Paul. He would be a good stopgap option, but he’s 38 and also comes with injury risks.
In a seven-game series, when healthy, the Warriors can hold their own against the Lakers, Kings, or anyone else. However, doing that for four rounds and potentially without home court advantage is a lot to ask.
Harsh Reality #1: The Warriors missed out on opportunities to improve their roster.
Thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, which was designed to limit teams like Golden State, they were limited in what they could do this offseason. Be that as it may, the Phoenix Suns managed to make a splash despite having the same limitations.
They used most of the remaining assets to acquire Beal from the Wizards and then signed several undervalued free agents to minimum contracts. Although the Warriors have fewer holes to fill than the Suns did, Golden State should have been in pursuit of several of the players that the Suns ultimately signed.
Drew Eubanks, Keita Bates-Diop Bates, and Yuta Watanabe each signed minimum contracts, and each could have helped bolster the Warriors front court. Eubanks is an athletic center who sets bruising screens and rolls hard to the basket. He would have provided vertical spacing, particularly if paired with Curry or Paul.
He’s also a tremendous rebounder and finisher around the rim. Watanabe was one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA last season and proved to be a highly effective, high-energy player when playing alongside stars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn.
He could have provided that same energy on the Warriors second unit. As for Bates-Diop, he is an unorthodox player who can defend big wings, fours, and even some centers, and his length and mobility make him tough to score against. Offensively, while he isn’t a three-point shooter, he scores effectively off cuts and in transition.
With plenty of space and stars to draw attention away from him, Bates-Diop would have been a terrific fit. Instead, he, Watanabe, and Eubanks all signed with the Suns, bolstering a team that already has three stars and making them a major threat to the Warriors.
Ultimately, the Warriors were in need of roster upgrades this summer but were limited in what they could do. While they are no longer the favorites to win the West, if everything goes right, they should still be in the mix next season.