Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had quite the breakout season in 2022-23, and so did his team. The Oklahoma City Thunder have not made the playoffs since the 2019-20 season, but they are still far ahead of schedule with their rebuild.
With an average age of 23.14 years, the Thunder were the youngest team in the league last season. Nevertheless, they were much more competitive than expected and even won their first play-in game against the New Orleans Pelicans.
At the head of the snake was Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished fourth in the league in scoring, made his first All-Star game, and was named to the First Team All-NBA alongside established stars in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, and Luka Doncic. He received votes for Most Improved Player and the Clutch Player award but most significantly finished 5th in MVP voting. This put him behind Embiid, Nicola Jokic, Antetokounmpo, and Tatum with six fourth-place votes and 28 fifth-place votes.
While this is a great milestone for the 25-year-old, he has the potential to climb that ladder sooner rather than later and leave the fifth place behind. So, let’s look at three steps for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to truly enter the MVP race next season.
3. Stay healthy and play as many games as possible
With the new CBA, this is sort of obvious. Players now have to play at least 65 regular season games to qualify for any major award, but there is more to it. Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander played 68 games, which would be enough. In the two previous seasons, however, he only played 56 and 35 games.
Not only does Gilgeous-Alexander have to be available simply to meet the league’s requirements, but with the level of competition he will face in the MVP race, he will also need every chance to showcase his talent. Embiid, Jokic, and Antetokounmpo will most likely dominate the MVP conversation once again. It is tough for a young guard to stand out amid some of the best big men in the world. If Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the league’s leading scorers, has a positive impact on defense, is durable, and brings his a-game every single game, however, people have to notice him.
Since 2016, six different players have won the MVP award—three guards and three big men—and only twice the winner did not play more than 70 regular season games (Embiid in 2022-23 with 66 games and Antetokounmpo in 2019-20 with 63).
Gilgeous-Alexander has already shown that he can hang with the league’s best but if he wants to truly be in the MVP conversation, he will have to be available pretty much all the time and use every chance he gets to set himself apart from everyone else.
2. Keep up the scoring
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has an impact all over the floor. He scores, sets up his teammates, and defends well, averaging 1.6 steals and 1 block per game last season. This makes him a true all-around threat, but his scoring ability is still his biggest asset.
He can create his own shot at a high level and constantly gets to the line for plenty of freebies. Last season, he averaged 10.9 free throw attempts per game, which was third-most in the league behind only Antetokounmpo (12.3) and Embiid (11.7), and converted 90.5 percent of those shots.
His field goal shooting was equally efficient with 51 percent. Especially in the paint, he shot above league average and his mid-range attempts were good too. So, either Gilgeous-Alexander makes his way to the basket and scores, or he gets to the line. Or both.
He is already one of the best scorers in the game, but his three-point shot is still below league average. First of all, consider how impressive it is for a guard to have the fourth-highest scoring average in the league without being a three-point shooter. Now, if that changes, Gilgeous-Alexander will be pretty much unstoppable.
All this led to a scoring average of 31.4 points per game last season, which trailed only Embiid’s, Doncic’s, and Damian Lillard’s averages and jumped up from 24.5 points in the previous season. That is a crazy impressive leap and if he were to take another jump, the league better watch out. It would be truly terrifying for whoever has to try and guard Gilgeous-Alexander.
To truly enter the MVP conversation that might not even be necessary, though. If he can reproduce the same numbers or add one or two points per game to sneak into the top three, it will be hard not to mention him with the top players in the NBA. Out of the last MVP winners since 2016 only two averaged more points than Gilgeous-Alexander did last season; Embiid with 33.1 points in 2023 and Russell Westbrook with 31.6 points in 2017.
He already made it to the mountaintop when it comes to scoring. Now, he just has to stay there consistently to truly enter the MVP conversation.
1. Lead a young Thunder team to the playoffs
The Thunder were just one play-in win away from the playoffs last season, way ahead of schedule. Now, last season’s rookies have some experience, Chet Holmgren will finally play, Josh Giddey can take a step forward, and Gilgeous-Alexander has the chance to lead his young squad to the playoffs.
They don’t even have to win much—when Jokic won the MVP in 2022, Denver lost to the Warriors in the first round and Westbrook’s 2016-17 Thunder team also didn’t make it out of the first round—but carrying the team there would already push Gilgeous-Alexander towards the MVP conversation.
In the 2020-21 season, the Memphis Grizzlies became the youngest team to make the playoffs since the 2010-11 Thunder with an average age of 24.3 years. Since then, they have been a regular in the playoffs, Ja Morant entered All-Star territory and never looked back, Desmond Bane took off, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has won Defensive Player of the Year. The Thunder could embark on a similar path if they make the playoffs and it would solidify Gilgeous-Alexander, who carries by far the biggest scoring load on the team, as one of the top players in the league.
The Thunder making the playoffs is not unlikely either. They finished the 2021-22 season with a 24-58 record and then improved to a 40-42 record in just one year. If they won 45 games or so next season, I would not be surprised. There is so much talent and promise on this roster and they are already well ahead of other rebuilding teams, largely due to Gilgeous-Alexander’s breakout. This is their chance to jump to the same level as the Grizzlies, the Cavaliers, and the Kings as young playoff teams who can make life difficult for anyone in the league.
If Gilgeous-Alexander is available, solidifies his standing as one of the league’s top scorers, and can lead his young squad to the playoffs, nothing is standing between him and the top three in MVP voting.