A slight glance at the television or a simple listen to sports talk pundits and the consensus is the Miami Heat have already lost the NBA Finals after Game 1. Showing either immense respect for the Denver Nuggets or a lack thereof for coach Erik Spoelstra’s ability to adjust.
Usually, being on the other end of an 11-point victory would not cause such early certainty. However, the one-sided nature of the first three quarters trained eyes to view the game as worse than it was. That means ignoring the fourth quarter rallies and the self-inflicted holes the Heat could easily attempt to seal.
One obvious issue being the ability to sink open shots.
The combination of Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson went 2-for-23 from the field and 2-for-16 from three. Including 16 uncontested shots from beyond the arch, as per Nuggets coach Michael Malone. Not to mention, Bam Adebayo’s stellar 26-point performance came on 25 attempts.
While Miami’s shooting was not ideal, for most of the team, the shot selection was not all bad. And no one expects the makes to remain so inconsistent. Yet, there are other things the Heat can work on to make the odds of evening the series more tangible.
Here are some of the ways.
3. A Kevin Love rotation return
A tweaked calf, poor matchups and an Eastern Conference Finals MVP-like performance from Caleb Martin, not only banished Kevin Love from the Heat starting lineup, but regulated the 15-year veteran to sporting warmups for the last three games. A fact that should change during this Denver series.
Particularly, with Cody Zeller now being listed as questionable with a right foot sprain and Love chiming in that he is ready to go:
Kevin Love on mindset after falling out of Heat rotation recently: "I think the luxury is I’ll be sitting there waiting. If my number is called, great. If not, I’m going to support these guys the best I can.”
— Anthony Chiang (@Anthony_Chiang) June 3, 2023
Regardless of Zeller’s status, there is no realistic explanation for Love being behind him in the rotation, unless he is nursing a serious injury. A statement such as that would make some wonder if Love’s impact were even great enough to shift the scale. Maybe not completely, but he has the skills to contribute to a collective momentum swing.
A 6.9 point per game average, through 16 postseason games does not sound like a lot, but Love’s ability to snatch 5.8 rebounds per game and initiate fastbreaks with his outlet passes means easy transition points for Miami. His ability to stretch the floor to the three-point line will, also, draw defenders away from clogging the lane.
Just as notable, Love would be another body to throw at Nikola Jokic on the defensive end.
2. Pick Your Jokic Poison
The Heat’s defensive strategy against the Nuggets showed all the signs of a team trying to figure out which poison pill would take them out the slowest. With Miami choosing to take the full dose of everything authored by Nikola Jokic. The result was a 27-point, 10 rebound, 14 assist game to follow in the footsteps of Jason Kidd with an NBA Finals debuting triple-double.
So, should the Heat treat Jokic like Kidd? Meaning, would it be more beneficial to let the center get his in order to disrupt Denver’s flow?
For instance, Jokic is more than capable of going for 50-plus points. Nevertheless, he cannot be allowed to score, board and get others into a rhythm. Double doubles are survivable but assists leading to triple-doubles will always result in a Heat loss.
If Jokic is allowed to go off and just score, his passing capabilities are not being utilized to rope teammates into a flow. Hopefully, for the Miami, forcing Denver’s others to press to get their own. Because everything else is an uphill battle if all the Nuggets are getting involved.
The only way around that team effort includes less double teams on Jokic, more fighting over the pick-and-roll instead of hedging and eliminating the switches that leave Gabe Vincent mismatched against oversized wings.
A defensive shift will not stop Jokic but will be the only hope to neutralize the big man from doing it all.
1. Playoff Jimmy
No logical mind would expect Jimmy Butler to put on the same performances that he did to during the early portion of the NBA Playoffs. Not after an ankle injury and the fatigue of 18 games. Yet, the Heat star still has expectations. With the main one being aggression.
For the last five contests, Butler has looked either drained or disengaged throughout the first 36 minutes of games. Commencing with passing out of open shots instead of looking at the rim.
Butler’s lack of aggression was evident in a few aspects. First, he was barely the fourth leading scoring for the Heat in Game 1. Second, and more importantly, he shot zero free throws as the team set a record for the least free throw attempts in a finals game, with two.
Statistics like this stick out, because Butler’s attacking style is known for pressuring the opposition into foul trouble. So much so, that he ranks at number three for average free throw attempts per game (8.6) behind early exits Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant. A knack that he should be more eager to put on display by driving against a less swift-footed, non-rim protector in Jokic.
Butler knows that he has to turn his aggression up while continuing to breathe confidence into his teammates, but if he does not pull out Playoff Jimmy, he could finish his second finals appearance with the same ringless fingers.