The Houston Rockets have the cap flexibility and trade assets to make a big splash this summer. Significant changes are certainly needed, as Houston finished the season with a 22-60 record.
GM Rafael Stone has already indicated the franchise plans to move on from its rebuild this summer. With over $70 million available in cap space along with an abundance of young players and draft picks at their disposal, Houston has the assets needed to take the next step.
What exactly the Rockets do will matter more than how they get it done, though. Here are the exact moves Houston needs to make to turn things around this off-season.
The NBA Draft
Houston is tied with Detroit and San Antonio for the best odds of the first pick, meaning they will have a 14% chance of landing Victor Wembanyama. Of course, with the draft still over a month away, we have no idea where the Rockets will land in the draft order.
So to decide, I simulated the lottery in Tankathon, and it gave Houston the second pick in the draft. This leaves the Rockets with two options: Selecting the clear best player available in Scoot Henderson or trading down or out of the draft order.
One might question why Houston would trade their second pick when given the opportunity to select a player who would be drafted first in most years. But considering the Rockets will likely look to acquire a lead guard in free agency, Scoot may not be the best fit.
On the other hand, trading the pick would allow the Rockets to bring in a player who complements their other additions of the offseason, and potentially more assets as well. Next is a trade that would accomplish this.
Move #1:
How it benefits the Raptors
After being eliminated in the play-in tournament, the Raptors will face some tough decisions this offseason. Impending free agents Fred Vanvleet, Gary Trent Jr., and Jakob Poeltl are all in line for big paydays, but that will likely result in Toronto losing them to another team or paying them sizeable contracts only to have another mediocre season.
Scoot Henderson would offer the Raptors a way out of their dilemma. He gives them a franchise player to build around, allowing Toronto to be much more comfortable letting their key players leave in free agency. They could then move forward as a somewhat competitive team that would finally be progressing year by year.
How it benefits the Rockets
Anunoby would help stabilize the Rockets’ defense after finishing 29th in defensive rating. He’s so good on that end of the floor that teams have valued him as a star in trade talks, despite his career high in points per game only being 17. Of course, 15+ points per game is still very good, and most of Anunoby’s scoring can be attributed to his knock-down three-point shot. This season, he is shooting at a 38% rate from behind the arc on 7 attempts per game.
Anunoby is both an elite defender and an outside shooter, which most would call the two most important areas of the game. He may not have the upside of Henderson, but his game will translate to more wins immediately. Additionally, the Rockets would receive a protected first-round pick in 2026, which, depending on how fast it takes for Toronto to return to winning, could be pretty valuable.
Draft selection
Lastly, Houston would need to find a plan for their other first-round pick from the Los Angeles Clippers, which landed at 18th in the draft simulation.
With that pick, I would look to draft another point guard. Kevin Porter Jr has shown promise but he probably doesn’t represent the team’s future at the point guard position. TyTy Washington hasn’t had many opportunities yet, but considering he hasn’t proven himself to be a reliable backup, it couldn’t hurt to give him some competition.
Of course, Houston will look to bring in a point guard in free agency, but getting a reliable backup who can take over the position after that player is gone would be the Rockets’ best use of this pick.
A player I would try to select if he’s still on the board is Jalen Hood-Schifino. Hood-Schifino is listed at 6’6” and 215 lbs., a frame that makes him more than capable of excelling at the NBA level. NBA Draft Room describes him as a “rock solid guard who is best playing on the ball, facilitating the offense, and being a glue guy on both ends of the court.” This is the exact type of player Houston could use off the bench, and if they developed him well, he could be their future point guard.
Move #2
OG Anunoby is not the only player Houston needs to shore up its horrible defense. As fun, as Alperen Sengun is to watch, the main responsibility of a big man in today’s NBA is to help his team get stops, and unfortunately, that’s the one area of weakness in Sengun’s game. Here is a trade that would have Houston bringing in an elite paint protector.
How it benefits the Suns
The Suns are considered by most as favorites to make it out of the Western Conference. If they do make it to the finals, then disregard anything I say about this potential trade. Otherwise, a deal sending Ayton to Houston, or somewhere else, is a legitimate possibility.
There were rumors about a sign-and-trade involving Ayton last summer, though he ultimately ended up re-signing with Phoenix. But the front office’s unwillingness to offer Ayton the contract he desired until they were forced to match the Indiana Pacers’ offer indicates they may not be confident in their former first-overall draft pick. This deal would get them another starting-caliber center in Sengun, a point guard to potentially replace Chris Paul in Porter Jr., and a gritty wing in Jae’Sean Tate.
How it benefits the Rockets
Deandre Ayton hasn’t been the same player since the Suns’ made the finals in 2021. Part of that can be attributed to the Suns’ organization’s lack of confidence in him, as they refused to offer Ayton a max contract even after his incredible performance in the 2021 playoffs. That being said, it’s still Ayton’s responsibility to bring his full effort to the court every night, and he hasn’t done that.
But perhaps Houston could revitalize his ascension to stardom. Simply getting Ayton out of Phoenix would benefit him, but if Houston maximized his abilities on both the offensive and defensive end, we could see Ayton return to the league’s top five big men conversation. As we’ve seen in the past with Clint Capela, an elite big man has often been the key to the Rockets’ success, and at his best, Ayton is an even better player than Capela was in his prime.
Move #3
After picking up the team options of Jalen Green, Usman Garuba, Josh Christopher, and Kenyon Martin Jr., Houston would still have nearly $50 remaining in cap space. Obviously, this leaves room for a huge signing. Specifically, one that has been rumored throughout the season and would make for a great reunion.
As you can probably guess by now, the player that the Rockets should sign is James Harden. Harden spent essentially eight seasons with Houston, and despite never winning a championship, had some incredible accomplishments during that time, including when he became the first player to record a 60-point triple-double, and when he became one of two players to ever be responsible for 90 or more of his team’s points, whether it came from points or assists.
Harden may not be the force that he was in his prime years, but he’s still one of the game’s best playmakers, leading the league in assists per game this season with 11 per game. His passing game would be extremely helpful to the development of young players like Jalen Green, OG Anunoby, and Deandre Ayton.
Of course, all of this depends on how the 76ers fair in the playoffs. If they make a Championship appearance or even a Conference Finals appearance, then it’s unlikely Harden leaves a contender. But if Philly suffers yet another early playoff exit, don’t be surprised to see The Beard in a Rockets jersey next season.
Filling out the roster.
After signing Harden to a contract likely in the high-30 to low-40 million range, the Rockets would have about 5-7 million remaining in cap space. With that money, I would suggest signing a player like Dwight Powell.
Houston drafted a big man in the first round of the 2021 draft Usman Garuba, but he’s yet to find himself a consistent role in the rotation. Bringing in Powell wouldn’t necessarily leave Garuba to sit on the bench, but he would give the Rockets another option, and an extremely reliable one as well, as Powell has only missed six games throughout the last two seasons.