Now that every team has played at least 41 games thus far, we are now officially halfway through the season. That also means that we are getting closer to one of the most anticipated NBA Drafts in league history. 7’4 French center Victor Wembanyama seems like a ready-made superstar and is widely expected to be the top pick in the 2023 NBA draft. In fact, teams are already angling to try and get their hands on him.
Of course, whether they can has a lot to do with league standings, and while there are 30 teams, there are only 14 teams with any kind of chance of winning the draft lottery. Moreover, there are only five teams with at least a 10% chance. While those may seem like slim odds, even a 10% chance at landing what some consider to be the greatest draft prospect ever is definitely worth it.
The no chance tier.
Boston Celtics
Denver Nuggets
Memphis Grizzlies
Brooklyn Nets
Milwaukee Bucks
Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Los Angeles Lakers (pick swap with the New Orleans Pelicans)
Sacramento Kings
New York Knicks
Dallas Mavericks
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers
Minnesota Timberwolves
LA Clippers
Golden State Warriors
With the NBA draft lottery limited to the 14 teams that miss the playoffs, these winners find themselves as spectators in the race for Wembanyama. All things considered, the lottery teams vying for Wembanyama are trying to be where some of the teams in this tier are. And if he is as good as most believe that he is, the team that drafts him could be a playoff team for the foreseeable future once he gets acclimated to the league.
There is one team, however, that would otherwise have a chance of landing the first overall pick. The New Orleans Pelicans have swap rights with the Los Angeles Lakers, and while the Lakers are playing much better of late, they may still miss the playoffs. That would give the team with the eighth-best record in the NBA a lottery pick and a small chance at selecting first in the 2023 NBA draft. That is something worth keeping an eye on.
The “So you’re saying there’s a chance” tier.
Atlanta Hawks-0.5%
Utah Jazz-1%
Phoenix Suns-1.5%
Portland Trail Blazers-2%
Oklahoma City-3%
New Orleans Pelicans (pick swap with the Los Angeles Lakers)-4.5%
Toronto Raptors-6.7%
Orlando Magic (via the Chicago Bulls)-6.8%
Washington Wizards-9%
While the teams in the previous tier currently have no shot at selecting Wembanyama, these eight teams do. As you can see, they have anywhere from a .08% chance up to a 9% chance. Odds are, none of these teams will select first come June, but considering most of these teams are decent already, perhaps that’s for the best.
Wembanyama is a franchise-changing player, and while a team like the Washington Wizards could use him to finally build a sustainable winner, the Pelicans will be just fine without him. Speaking of the Pelicans, with the aforementioned pick situation, they project to have the No. 9 pick.
Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic are in a similar situation. Thanks to the disastrous (for the Bulls) Nikola Vuceivic trade, they own the rights to the Bulls’ selection. That’s currently the seventh pick, giving them a 4.5% chance at Wembanyama in addition to their own selection (more on that later). While these teams currently have a slim chance of landing the first overall pick, there is still about half a season left to make up ground by losing.
The Hawks and Trail Blazers are both in free fall and have seen their draft positions jump compared to a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Lakers’ and Bulls’ picks have worsened as they’ve begun to play better. The point is that there will almost certainly be significant movement within the tier, with some dropping out and others rising.
The “I’m just happy to be nominated” tier.
Orlando Magic-10.5%
San Antonio Spurs-12.5%
Detroit Pistons-14.0%
Charlotte Hornets-14.0%
Houston Rockets-14.0%
Orlando Magic
While the Orlando Magic might not be particularly good at the moment, they are always fascinating to watch thanks to their freakishly tall and versatile team. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck between being good enough to avoid being a bottom-three team and bad enough to likely miss the play-in tournament.
It’s a tough spot to be in since they’ll only have a 10.5% chance of landing the first pick in this year’s draft. Then again, this team has already won the NBA draft lottery three times, including last year. If everything goes right for the Magic, they’ll win the draft lottery again and be able to pair Wembanyama with franchise star Bol Bol, er, Paolo Banchero.
San Antonio Spurs
Of the teams in the bottom five, the Spurs are perhaps the most intriguing. After winning just 35 games last season, they opted to trade away their best player for draft picks, presumably in the hopes of bottoming out.
While they do have the fourth-worst record in the NBA, they have looked competent when fully healthy. In fact, they started the season 5-2 before losing 11 straight games thanks to injuries to several rotation players. The Spurs are mostly healthy now, minus their best player, Devin Vassell, who is out indefinitely, but they are still a cut above the three worst teams in the NBA at the moment.
That should be a good thing, but it’s the difference between a 12.5% chance at Wembanyama and a 14% chance. That probably won’t matter much, but when talking about potentially landing a franchise-changing player, every bit helps.
Actually, the Spurs could look to trade Jakob Poeltl, Doug McDermott, and Josh Richardson, each of whom is key to their team, partly in the hopes of worsening their roster and improving their lottery odds. Even if they don’t move all three, there is still a chance that they catch up with the Pistons, who currently have a worse record by virtue of having played three more games thus far.
Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons were many NBA fans’ picks to be the most surprising team this season after a terrific summer. They drafted Jaden Ivey, acquired Jalen Duren, and traded for Bojan Bogdanovic, all of which were great moves. When factoring in the presence of 2021 first-overall pick Cade Cunningham, the Pistons appeared to be a legitimate play-in tournament team.
Instead, they have the third-worst record in the NBA and are seeking to shed some of their veteran players to get even worse. Why not, right? If you are going to underperform, this is the season to do so, and there has at least been some player development with the likes of Killian Hayes and Isaiah Stewart.
Assuming they move on from some of their key players at the trade deadline, the Pistons could have another terrific offseason if they win the NBA draft lottery.
Charlotte Hornets
Another surprise inclusion in the bottom five is the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have had terrible luck dating back to the offseason, when their leading scorer from last season, Miles Bridges, got himself into legal trouble.
He hasn’t played this season, and All-Star guard LaMelo Ball has already missed 30 games thus far, both contributing to the Hornets’ horrid start. Even with those players, they were only a slightly above-average team, so it makes sense that they’d be one of the worst teams in the NBA without them.
The obvious silver lining to that is that they currently are tied for the highest odds of landing the number one pick, and they are in desperate need of a talent infusion.
Houston Rockets
For all the young talent on the Rockets, they find themselves with the worst record in the NBA. This is despite having six first-round picks in the last two drafts, including Jalen Green and Jabari Smith, who were both top-three picks.
This team is still trying to figure out which of its pieces are keepers, and that’s led them to be frustratingly inconsistent. That at least gives them a chance to select a true superstar in Wembanyama, and selecting him would take pressure off Green and Smith and give the Rockets one of the best young trios in the NBA.
Simulating which NBA team will win the race for Wembanyama
Thanks to the folks at Tankathon, fans are able to run simulations of the 2023 NBA Draft with the click of a mouse. As a result, I took the liberty of running a few simulations of my own—25 of them, in fact. Here are the results:
Charlotte Hornets-10
San Antonio Spurs- 4
Detroit Pistons-3
Houston Rockets-3
Toronto Raptors-2
Atlanta Hawks-1
Oklahoma City-1
Washington Wizards-1
As you can see in this completely scientific poll, the Charlotte Hornets will end up with the top pick in May and have the chance to draft Wembanyama. Hornets fans rejoice! Fans of the other lottery teams turn away in disguise! In all seriousness, though, if there is one thing that is clear, the recent changes to the draft lottery odds have made a big impact on who can end up with the number one overall pick.
Previously, the teams with the worst and second-worst records had a 25% and 20% chance, respectively, of ending up with the top pick. Now, those odds have been flattened, and five teams have between a 10% and 14% chance of winning the draft lottery.
This may have reduced some, but not all, of the tanking, unlike what the original draft rules did. Ultimately, no matter what the NBA does to discourage tanking, teams are already racing toward the bottom of the standings for Wembanyama.