With two recent sizzling performances by projected number-one NBA draft pick Victor Wembanyama, it’s clear that he’s the best NBA draft prospect in the last 20 years, possibly ever. A 7’4 center who can attack off the dribble, nail threes, defend on the perimeter, and shut down the paint with his rim protection, all make him the perfect player to build around.
Of course, only one of the NBA’s 30 teams can end up with Wembanyama. Actually, only about five teams, since the five worst records get anywhere from a 10%-14% chance of selecting him. With such low odds, teams should have a contingency plan and some already do. Therefore, let’s look at the four teams that can land Wembanyama without winning the NBA draft lottery
NBA Team #1: Oklahoma City Thunder
While the Oklahoma City Thunder might be seen as the favorites to land the number one pick and select Wembanyama, that’s probably not the case. They may not be nearly as bad as the San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic, and possibly even the Houston Rockets. If they end up with the fourth-worst record, then they’d have just a 12.5% chance of landing the number one pick and a 10% chance if they finish fifth, not exactly great odds.
Assuming they do, then they could pivot to plan B and try to trade their way to the top of the NBA draft. They’ve been collecting picks like stamps for a reason, and they could make some poor team lose sleep by having to decide between Wembanyama and the fourth or fifth pick as well as, say, five other first-rounders. Not good enough?
How about seven? The Thunder could do that without breaking a sweat or their draft pick piggy bank. Even then, a team might say no, but it’s not exactly impossible, and don’t put it past Sam Presti to do it.
NBA Team #2: The New York Knicks
Let’s say the New York Knicks somehow trade for Wembanyama and shake off decades of disappointment. It’s farfetched, at best, but the Knicks do have a surprising number of assets to play with, and they have wisely stocked up on picks, including a one-for-three swap on draft night with the Thunder. That trade was supposed to help them acquire Donovan Mitchell from the Jazz, but the Cleveland Cavaliers swooped in at the last minute.
Now they’re back on the market for a star, and Wembanyama fits the bill. In the meantime, they are trying to build a competent team and are halfway decent, but a tough East means that it’s unlikely that they make the play-in tournament. That could mean a top-10 pick and a good asset in a great draft.
Of course, if they’re trading up in the draft, then the team with the number one pick will need a lot more and the Knicks need to be willing to trade everything that isn’t tied down, including RJ Barrett. Barrett is their best asset, and they just re-signed him to a 4-year, $107 million contract.
Paying Barrett nearly $27 million a year might not be appealing to another rebuilding team right now when they’ll have a cost-controlled superstar in hand, but Barrett can break out and drastically improve his trade value next season. Assuming that he does, then they can offer him up along with several of their 11 future first-round picks to try and win the Wemby sweepstakes.
NBA Team #3: San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs are likely to end up with one of the three worst records in the NBA next season. Although that would give them a 14% chance at Wembanyama, they have contingencies if they don’t land the first pick. They’ve compiled an impressive haul of picks in record time, including picking up three firsts and two pick swaps earlier this summer.
They can also add to that haul by dealing Jakob Poeltl, Doug McDermott, and Josh Richardson, each of whom should be worth at least a first-round pick. If they can, then their draft stash will begin to rival that of the Thunder, who used up three of their picks in this year’s draft as well as trading three future firsts to the Knicks for the 12th pick.
That’s important because if the Spurs end up selecting second, they have a possible future superstar in Scoot Henderson and a platter of picks to offer up to swap places. Or, they land the third pick and can still offer a great player as well as picks. The Thunder and Knicks can both offer young talent and future picks, but neither will likely pick in the top three, giving the Spurs a major leg up on them.
NBA Team #4: Utah Jazz
Of the four teams on this list, Utah needs the services of Wembanyama the most. While the Thunder, Knicks, and Spurs are far from world-beaters, they still have several talented young players. The Jazz have several veterans stranded until they get moved and a bunch of young players who may or may not turn into anything.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell, two players that are already above average and have the potential to be very good. Fortunately, the Jazz have positioned themselves to get Rudy Gobert 3.0 by trading the original model for three firsts and two pick swaps. They also got three more firsts from Cleveland for Donovan Mitchell.
Factor in that they’re likely to be one of the three worst teams already, and that they now have a dozen future first-round picks to trade, and the Jazz’s chances are as good as anyone’s. Much like with the Spurs, the second pick in this year’s draft and four future firsts, or the third pick and six future picks, might be enough to convince the team holding the top selection to trade back. It’s a lot to give up but Wembanyama could end up being the player that delivers a title to Utah. They have to at least try.
Ultimately, only one team will end up with the generational prospect. That said, they’ll have some tough decisions to make if and when at least three of these teams are offered a trade package that they really shouldn’t refuse.