The Golden State Warriors are in a unique situation, armed with a pair of lottery picks in the NBA draft while trying to put together a roster to compete for a championship next season. It’s certainly a better place to be in than the alternative, as they so often were trying to keep their dynasty going with late first-round picks.
One year after an injury-plagued season saw the Warriors pick second overall, Golden State fell just short of making the playoffs this past season, losing in consecutive play-in games to the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies. That awarded them the fourteenth pick in the upcoming 2021 NBA Draft.
Should the Golden State Warriors take an older prospect in the NBA draft to help now, or try to swing for upside and extend their window?
One school of thought when picking in the draft lottery is to swing for upside. The Warriors don’t expect to be back in the lottery anytime soon, so now is the time to strike for upside. It’s very possible they follow that line of drafting with their pick at No. 7 and take a young wing like Jonathan Kuminga.
Doing so would likely bump them in the direction of taking an older prospect at 14 to plug into the rotation now. The problem with that is it’s built on an assumption there are players capable of playing right away. Those players exist; the Memphis Grizzlies made the playoffs with two rookies in their rotation this past year. It’s just hard to identify which older prospects are “NBA ready” and which are simply older.
Let’s unpack some of the options available to the Warriors at No. 14. We will look at two older options frequently mocked to the Warriors here, as well as two young prospects with upside. Before we do that, let’s thread the needle and look at a young player who could also be ready to step in early and contribute.
Golden State Warriors options for pick No. 14: 5. Moses Moody, Wing, Arkansas
Why Moses Moody is expected to drop out of the Top 10 on draft night is a mystery. The 6’6″ wing out of Arkansas is built perfectly to be a high-level rotation player in the NBA and could be the perfect fit for the Warriors at pick No. 14.
Moody has a 7-foot wingspan and he uses it to great effect on defense, getting into passing lanes and bothering shots. Some players with long wingspans play off their man, trusting that wingspan to make up space. Moody instead plays physical and bodies up his opponent like a smaller player would, which allows that wingspan to be even more disruptive.
Offensively Moody is a mixed bag. He has a smooth stroke and was really good off-the-catch, and should be a movement shooter eventually in the NBA. He hit 35.8 percent of his college 3-pointers but that number should tick up over his first few years in the league. On the other hand, he’s not a great athlete and struggles to finish inside, hitting just 47.8 percent of his 2-pointers.
Moody is probably not going to be a star, but he could absolutely be a starter on a really good team, with off-ball shooting and enough ball-handling to attack closeouts and be a tertiary shot creator. He could be a perfect fit in the mix on the wing for the Warriors and grow into Klay Thompson’s wing stopper role.
Golden State Warriors options for pick No. 14: 4. Corey Kispert, Wing, Gonzaga
The most important skill in the modern NBA is shooting, and that’s what Corey Kispert does best. He was a key part of Gonzaga’s dominant offense this past season, unlocking what statistically may have been the best offense in decades.
It starts with his outside stroke; if he gets an open shot he is likely nailing it, shooting 44 percent from outside this past season. The threat of his shot then opens up opportunities for him to dart inside the arc, where he hit 62.8 percent of his shots. He makes great decisions and is a good finisher.
Defensively, while he works hard, he just doesn’t have the horses to be an impact player and will have to fight not to be a target. He has slow feet which will make it difficult to defend backcourt players, but he is strong and smart enough to defend with verticality. Especially in a defensive ecosystem like the Warriors, he should be able to avoid being a liability on that end.
Kispert is 22 years old and played a full four seasons at Gonzaga. His upside is likely as a role player, a fourth or fifth starter and not a star. Yet even if his ceiling is capped, his floor is astonishingly high due to his shooting. There is almost no universe where Kispert is not at least a rotation player. The Warriors could add him at 14, slot him into a small floor-spacing role early, and help him grow into a key rotation piece on the wing.
Golden State Warriors options for pick No. 14: 3. Chris Duarte, Wing, Oregon
If Corey Kispert is old, then Chris Duarte is an artifact. The 6’6″ guard went through a circuitous route to end up at Oregon and is already 24 years old. His upside is therefore very limited, and the track record of players that old coming into the draft is not stellar, especially when chosen in the lottery.
Yet Duarte has a lot going for him. He is a knockdown shooter who can hit off movement, with pull-ups and excels at catch-and-shoot baskets as well. He hit 42.4 percent of his 3-pointers and 63.1 percent of his 2-pointers, with his speed and quickness getting him to the rim where he finishes well.
He’s a great defender as well, with good size and strength to take on wings but the foot speed to check guards. He has fast hands that can cause deflections and steals to in turn ignite fast breaks where he is dynamic finishing or setting up teammates.
Duarte looks like a perfect fit to slot into the Warriors’ rotation and pair with Jordan Poole as a bench backcourt with excellent size and versatility. This would be a pick for the rest of Stephen Curry’s prime, not as a bridge to the next core. His age is scary, but his game is exactly what the Warriors need.
Golden State Warriors options for pick No. 14: 3. Alperen Sengun, C, Beşiktaş
Alperen Sengun is flying up draft boards, and there is more of a possibility that Sengun will be gone at pick No. 14 than any of the other players on this list. Yet opinions are still incredibly divided on the Turkish big man, and there is very much a chance he slides to the end of the lottery Thursday night.
Sengun is a 6’10” center who absolutely dominated the Turkish league this past season as an 18-year-old, winning MVP honors in a landslide. He is a walking 20 and 10, with incredible touch around the basket. His hands in particular are soft and accurate, helping him catch passes and rebounds and finish from anywhere near the rim.
An 80 percent free-throw shooter, Sengun can probably add an outside shot to his game; he wasn’t asked to do that yet because he is so good inside. When he doesn’t have the ball he is a solid screen setter.
Defensively there are more question marks for Sengun. He is a very good rebounder and has size inside to be a reasonable rim protector, but he has very little later agility and will struggle to defend in space. That doesn’t mean he can’t, as he did at times in the Turkish league, but against the better athletes in the NBA, it will be a challenge.
Sengun could be a dominant inside presence, or he could be just another center. As The Athletic’s John Hollinger is fond of saying, when a teenager is elite in high-level European competitions he has very little chance of failing. Sengun will have a chance to prove that and could replace James Wiseman if the team moves him for more short-term value.
Golden State Warriors options for pick No. 14: 2. Ziaire Williams, Wing, Stanford
A pair of key NBA Draft rules are at odds when evaluating where in the draft to take Stanford wing Ziaire Williams. On the one hand, the rule is to always draft the big wing. While some won’t pan out, the positional value and lineup versatility of such a player makes it worth the bet nearly every time.
On the other hand, another rule tells us to be suspicious of the elite prospect who bombs in college. From Harry Giles to Nassir Little to Cole Anthony, there is a long, long list of recent highly-touted prospects who had poor freshman seasons and went on to have similar starts to their careers. Perhaps they bounce back, perhaps they don’t.
What fans of Williams point to is the absolutely insane off-court factors that the teenager had to sort through this past season, from family members passing away to living out of a hotel for months unable to go home due to COVID.
Williams is tall at 6’9″, although he is painfully thin and was mowed over by opponents. He shot terribly from the field, didn’t impact the court on defense and didn’t leverage his athleticism to make plays. In essence, he didn’t do anything well at Stanford. Can that all be explained away? If it was just a lost year, his high school production was exceptional, and he has the body and theoretical skillset teams want.
Taking Williams at 14 would be a home run swing, one probably better suited for a rebuilding team. Yet if any environment was going to help Williams it would be a winning culture like the Warriors. He could become a legitimate star on the wing, the Warriors’ version of Kawhi Leonard.
There are multiple priorities the Golden State Warriors have to balance with both of their lottery picks. They can take a swing for the fences, draft for the future, or try to add a piece for the present. The clock on the window for this core is ticking; do they try to maximize it or prepare for when it’s done? Either way Thursday will be a busy time for the Warriors as they consider who to pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.