The 2021 NBA Draft has been described by many draft experts as a “five-player draft”. The class contains five clear players to be selected with the first five picks and from then on, it’s a free-for-all.
Someone who is in that free-for-all is the 6’9” Australian point guard Josh Giddey, who played for the Australian National Basketball League’s (NBL) Adelaide 36ers.
Giddey is an anomaly in this draft class. He is a 6’9” point guard who is among the best playmakers in the draft, he’s also one of the youngest turning 19 years old in October, and he will miss the entire NBA draft combine and pre-draft process (besides interviewing) because he’ll be traveling with Australia’s ‘Boomers’ national team for the Tokyo 2021 Olympics.
Giddey has been somewhat under the radar for most of the season due to being an international prospect, that also couldn’t be scouted in person because of global travel restrictions in a COVID world – making it a painful process to travel, stay and justify a trip to Australia for NBA decision-makers.
With the 2020 NBA draft less than one month away, it’s time to take a closer look at projected first-round pick Josh Giddey out of Australia.
Giddey played phenomenally for an 18-year-old in the NBL, widely considered as a top 3-6 pro league in the world.
Giddey averaged 10.9 points per game, 7.4 rebounds per game, 7.5 assists per game in 32.1 minutes per game (FIBA 40-minute games). He led the NBL in assists per game while also taking Rookie of the Year honors in his 28 games with the 36ers.
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Giddey is projected anywhere between 7-16 in the first round, so this draft profile will break down his strengths and weaknesses, as well as where his best fit in the draft might be.
2021 NBA Draft Profile:
Name: Josh Giddey
Height: 6’9″ (N/A Wingspan)
Weight: 210 pounds
Position: Point Guard/Wing
School/Club: Adelaide 36ers.
NBA Comparison: Joe Ingles/Ricky Rubio
2020-2021 statistics:
10.9 PPG
7.4 RPG
7.5 APG
42 FG%
29 3P%
69 FT%
NBA draft prospect Josh Giddey’s strengths: Playmaking
There is a strong argument that Josh Giddey is the best overall playmaker in this draft.
Draft gurus may argue Cade Cunningham is the best, but ESPN’s Jonathan Givony told Hoops Habit that he believes Giddey is one of the top few in this draft class.
"“Giddey is absolutely one of the elite playmakers in this class. His size, handle, creativity, vision and awareness is special and should allow him to carve out an important niche in the NBA as his frame, shooting and defense evolve.”"
Giddey led the NBL in assists this past season with 7.5 per game while having only the fifth-highest usage on the 36ers. For comparison, LaMelo Ball last season in the NBL averaged 6.8 assists (second in the league) with the highest usage rate on the team.
Giddey can throw the ball with lightning speed and precision off both hands. The advanced reads Giddey makes in both the half-court and full-court is what makes Giddey a clear top-15 prospect in this draft.
One of Giddey’s strongest areas is in the pick and roll. Giddey had multiple players who could roll and pop – making Giddey’s job easier, but allowed him to show his elite vision.
The NBA is dominated by the pick and roll play, and Giddey coming into the draft shows he can facilitate that action to near perfection — the lack of a steady jump shot prevents him from being perfect.
That is not Giddey’s only passing skill, Giddey can pass off the live dribble, skip the ball to either end of the half-court set, push the ball from the fast break and can find the smallest gaps to thread the needle. His height helps him survey the court, combining that with his wingspan and upper body strength allows him to send absolute bullets to his targets.
I’ve separated the skip passes as they show his dexterity with both hands off the live dribble. The advanced reads are why teams are intrigued, teams know that 6’9” playmakers who can throw skip passes like that don’t grow on trees.
The only knock on Giddey’s playmaking is that Giddey’s limited scoring ability reduces his passing effectiveness because he is unable to leverage the defense like a Luka Dončić or a Trae Young can.
There will be more on this, but Giddey’s limited bag can restrict some passing scenarios, and that will especially show when he gets into the NBA.
NBA draft prospect Josh Giddey’s weakness: Shooting
Giddey averaged 10.9 points per game for the season and shot 29 percent from three on 3.5 attempts per game for the season. On paper, he’s a limited offensive threat, but throughout the season Giddey improved on everything game by game.
Starting with the shooting, his confidence was the biggest issue throughout the season. The stats don’t suggest it, but there was a demonstrable improvement in confidence and shot formation in the second half of the season — going from exclusively as a catch and shoot threat to an off-the-dribble shooter.
Adelaide 36ers coach and former NBA player Conner Henry told Hoopshabit that the turning point for Giddey was in his ninth game, where he made three of four 3-point shots.
"“I remember saying to him before that game hey dude, one of these days you’re going to go out and bang a couple. And sure enough and we created an environment for him to believe in himself more. And from then on if teams are going to go underneath him on the pick and roll he was going to shoot it.”"
Giddey’s confidence boost can be attributed to growing more comfortable, as well as his shooting coach and mentor Andrew Gaze — the greatest male Australian basketball player ever, who happened to coach Giddey as a junior.
The percentages are still below average, no matter if you sample the last 10 or 15 games or the middle chunk of the season. And that has been one of Giddey’s major improvement areas this offseason. His upright stance affects both his ability to use his handle to create space and limits his lift to make the distance on threes.
And due to his unspectacular percentages, Giddey is often dropped on pick and roll coverage. But he has shown promise in the mid-range area, his mid-range game is solid, but Giddey in today’s NBA shouldn’t have to depend on it — considering Giddey has to still work on his 3-point shot, but it might be a late-stage career development.
As we’ve seen with many NBA players, such as Lonzo Ball, that you can become a respectable or even lethal 3-point threat with the right coaching and mindset. Do I think Giddey becomes a 40 percent 3-point shooter? no, but he could easily be a 36 percent threat on 3-5 attempts per game.
NBA draft prospect Josh Giddey’s improvement area: Scoring
Giddey fits within the category of deceivingly athletic players. Guys who play at a slow pace but can change their speed rapidly and finish with a dunk or flexible release – like an Alex Caruso or Chris Paul for example.
Giddey is unafraid to go up for a dunk or to finish around contact, his length allows him to slithery around vertical contests at the ring. At this stage, Giddey is still average to below-average statistically as a finisher, only averaging 42 percent from the field — that can be chalked up to inexperience and lack of weight.
Giddey’s change of speed allows him to hypnotize defenders into a lull and exploiting that into an aggressive drive and finish. This hasn’t translated free-throw-wise as Giddey only averaged 2.4 attempts shooting a cool 69 percent. His thinner frame meant he has knocked around in the paint so it’s one small area to improve, but considering his height and length he should be a consistent 4-6 attempts in his career at a minimum.
Handles
Darryl ‘D-Mac’ McDonald is an NBL legend, his playstyle was born from his play at Rucker Park and had some of the smoothest handles in NBL history. Giddey’s agent enlisted the help of D-Mac to work on Giddey’s handles and scoring, especially to work on his stance and pick and roll abilities. McDonald told Hoops Habit what they worked on:
"“A lot of it was pick and roll, being able to shoot the mid-range jump shot. We put a fair bit of time into him staying low, like being able to get down and play low because he’s 6’9” and plays standing straight up. And when you get to that next level, because he’s a point guard he will have a lot of small guards defending him, he’s got to be able to get down and play lower.”"
Giddey is very similar to a Kyle Anderson-type in this aspect, an upright stance with maybe a slow-paced dribble that leads into a quick move or two to get to his spot and uses his height and flexibility to finish. Giddey still lacks some lift in floaters or layups from a standstill, but with a head of steam, it’s less of an issue. But it still requires some practice in accuracy while at that pace.
Strength: Rebounding
One aspect with the playmaking that wasn’t mentioned was Giddey’s full-court passes. It was left until now to highlight his impressive rebounding. “The number one thing I could count on night in and night out,” coach Henry told Hoopshabit.
Being the point guard, Giddey would often lurk for a board and push the pace like Ben Simmons or Russell Westbrook. That’s not saying he’s “stealing” rebounds, as Giddey is great at reading where the ball will land.
Giddey was able to grab 1.1 offensive boards per game and a total of 7.4 rebounds per game in his NBL season. As seen in the clip above, Giddey not only creates another offensive possession with his offensive boards, he often makes the right pass leading straight into points for the 36ers.
Where the rebounding really is exciting is when Giddey grabs the board and pushes the full court to create opportunities. Giddey’s change of speed is a part of the aforementioned deceptive athleticism, my favorite example is this clip against the Illawarra Hawks.
Giddey secures the loose rebound and looks for the trailing guard and forward three times before making a no-look bounce pass on the money to Daniel Johnson. The rebounding is impressive alone, but how Giddey turns them into offensive possessions is another reason why Giddey is so highly projected.
NBA draft prospect Josh Giddey’s weakness: Defense
One of Giddey’s biggest flaws as a prospect is his defense, he isn’t a liability on that end but it’s one of his biggest improvement areas. Giddey has two main issues defensively: lateral quickness/awareness and his upright stance.
A combination of mental lapses, an undisciplined stance and poor navigation of screens is not uncommon for an 18-year-old but it is something to break down — and it’s especially evident playing against seasoned professionals. Miscommunications defensively caused some of these issues but coming into the draft Giddey’s defense will be monitored closely by NBA teams.
He has the tools to be at a minimum a very intelligent and neutral defender. At his best, he could switch 1-4 and use his length and basketball IQ to disrupt defenses with his 6’9” frame. Giddey also has excellent hands, he averaged 1.1 steals per game and half a block. His stripes, steals, and blocks all come from his intelligence and it slowly translated more and more as the season went on.
The first clip is of Giddey guarding the league MVP Bryce Cotton, Giddey locks his feet and slides along the arc using his height and wingspan to cut off any drives. A hand in the face and an extremely well-placed contest would make most NBA players miss — but he’s the Damian Lillard of the NBL for a reason.
The second clip is Giddey guarding Lamar Patterson, the awareness to sit back (Patterson is mostly an inside scorer) allows Giddey to read the play and pounce on Patterson when he goes for the spin – which leads to Giddey pushing the break and finding an open shooter on a drive.
However, coach Henry agreed that defense is one of Giddey’s biggest improvements areas. When asked on how it translates currently to an NBA level Henry told Hoopshabit:
"“He can go up to the next level and do the things he’s so, so good at right now but defensively he’s going to have to play at a tick higher pace and physicality. I have no doubt he will continue to grow in that area, but that is the area he will have to improve most.”"
If you are optimistic, you could reasonably say that with time and education in an NBA defense with the right coaching, Giddey could become a key defender. A switchable on the wing who makes intelligent reads that create fast-break opportunities. If you’re pessimistic, you could argue that the lack of foot speed and natural athleticism will always land him in trouble in the NBA.
I lean optimistically as the height, length, and basketball IQ will always leave Giddey a solid base to build off coming into the NBA. However, in the NBL he often was defending guards, and in the NBA Giddey will likely be covering 2-4 more often.
Overall outlook on NBA draft prospect Josh Giddey
There is a lot to like about Josh Giddey as an NBA prospect, he’s tall, a great playmaker and by all accounts is a workhorse determined to get better. However, in today’s NBA, defense and shooting are two extremely important areas of the game and Giddey’s two biggest flaws are in those areas.
Giddey’s floor as a prospect is as a somewhat switchable playmaker in your starting lineup or as your lead point guard off the bench. His ceiling is something we might have never seen before (a Luka Dončić without the elite scoring?), like a less defensively-minded but more willing to score Ben Simmons.
The knocks on Giddey’s game are legitimate and concerning if not addressed early. But the praises are real and the possible ceiling is exciting.
Giddey can both help you win games immediately and be a key development piece that spends time in the G-League in his first couple seasons, like Thunder’s Aleksej Pokuševski or the Mavericks Josh Green — multiple sources have told Hoopshabit Giddey would be open and willing to play G-League for development.
The biggest factor is fit, so, where does he land, and how does that team use him?
Who should draft Josh Giddey?
Giddey has been projected as high as seventh in mock drafts coming out around the time of the lottery, and as low as 13-17 by reputable draft analysts.
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Because of the Australian government restrictions on international travelers, there have only been three teams that have scouted Giddey in person prior to the Las Vegas Olympics scrimmages. The Golden State Warriors, the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Toronto Raptors.
The Warriors and Pelicans both had scouts watching their draft and stash players Justinian Jessup and Didi Loudaza, while the Raptors sent their own scout separately. Many scouts and NBA decision-makers are waiting for the national team scrimmages in Las Vegas to finally see Giddey in person for the first time. This means that Giddey is an abnormality in the draft, as he didn’t participate in any of the in-person predraft scouting due to his national team commitments.
Giddey doesn’t need a high usage to produce and that leaves him being drafted as either a secondary playmaker or as a lead playmaker. So three teams that might suit Giddey best are the Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs.
Starting with the Warriors, who have both 7th and 14th overall picks and could be an interesting landing spot. Having the flexibility to take a let’s say Scottie Barnes at seven and then use 14 for a high upside pick like Giddey could make sense.
The Warriors have done their research on Giddey as well, as mentioned their scout Michael Lee has been watching Jessup and Giddey in the NBL this past season. But the team has also consulted former Warrior Andrew Bogut about Giddey as a prospect.
The Warriors love playmakers and having another possible switchable and intelligent passer fits what the Warriors do — if they keep the young prospects on their team.
The next two are good fits for similar reasons, both the Pacers (No. 13) and Spurs (No. 12) are in NBA hell – not quite good enough for a real playoff run but not bad enough for a good lottery pick. Giddey fits both the rebuilding side or the trying-to-win team.
Ultimately neither you, the draft gurus nor I have any idea where Giddey will be drafted. But Giddey is a very young and talented playmaker, and that may get you as high as six or seven in this year’s NBA draft.