The common saying tells us that “hindsight is 20/20” and while it’s wrong, the sentiment is sound. Time and distance do not give us perfect eyesight, but we do learn things that could have helped us make the original decision. When evaluating the 2020 NBA Draft, our eyesight is improved, even one year later.
We have a season of data on most of these rookies, information that was not available before the draft. We can see how certain skills have translated to the next level, which players were ready to step in immediately, and who was boosted by the pre-draft process but just doesn’t have the juice.
Every NBA Draft looks very different in hindsight, and the 2020 Draft is no different. LaMelo Ball leads the way in the 2020 NBA redraft.
There are still plenty of unknowns. Did the rookies who played well prove themselves better than we thought, or was it just a fast start? Did the disappointments reveal their true, inadequate colors, or was it just a slow start? Were the good shooters just hot and the bad shooters just cold?
Here is our evaluation of how the 2020 NBA Draft would go now, a season later. Which players fly up the draft board? Who plummets down?
A few notes on the method. First, this redraft focuses more heavily on team fit since it took place less than a year ago and we can still understand that context well; as time goes on our eyesight grows sharper on who the players become but fuzzier on the specific team context.
Secondly, first-year production is weighted more than one might expect. Yes, players drafted highly can have a poor rookie season and then grow into All-Stars, but it doesn’t happen as often as you think; generally, it’s the right call to change your opinion on a player who plays very poorly in year one.
Finally, the draft picks were assigned according to who walked away with a pick in that slot on draft night. Therefore draft night trades are assumed to happen exactly the same as they did in November, even if the players are different.
Let’s jump right in with the Minnesota Timberwolves, who apply their 20/20 eyesight to 2020 and make a different selection with the first overall pick.
For many drafts, the best player chosen is taken first overall. For others, the best player comes out of nowhere; without spoiling future redrafts, the 2013 Draft (Giannis Antetokounmpo) is an example. For a small number, the best player in the draft is identified ahead of time by many analysts, and the team choosing first simply takes someone else. That happened in 2018, and it happened again in 2020.
While not a consensus, the vast majority of draft analysts ranked LaMelo Ball first in the class. Whether because of the presence of D’Angelo Russell or from concerns about Ball’s family or demeanor, the Minnesota Timberwolves selected Anthony Edwards first. With the second pick the Golden State Warriors, with a Hall of Fame backcourt in place, took center James Wiseman. That meant Ball fell to the Charlotte Hornets at three.
Coming into his rookie season, Ball was seen as a ball-handler with size who was an elite passer from the jump. He was expected to struggle in gaining separation and shooting from outside. Instead of performing to expectations Ball was excellent right out of the gate, helping to spur a Hornets playoff push before he and Gordon Hayward missed time with injuries.
As a teenager Ball contributed to winning basketball, a rarity for one-and-done NBA draftees. He shot 35.2 percent from deep on a robust 5.1 attempts per game, turning an expected weakness into an average skill. He proved capable enough defensively to allow the Hornets to play 3-guard lineups with Ball, Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier, three nominal point guards.
Ball needs to continue to improve as a scorer to be on a true superstar trajectory, but he has been very good right from the jump. Even missing 21 games he won Rookie of the Year over Edwards, and his plus-1.9 Box Plus-Minus (BPM) was far and away the best mark in the class. Ball averaged a cool 15.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game, and those numbers should only go up moving forward.
The Golden State Warriors have an all-time superstar in his prime, a top-20 all-time player and the greatest shooter of all time. Yet armed with a rare pick at the top of the draft, they took a raw center in James Wiseman who struggled to make an impact when healthy.
This time around they have the ability to take a much more dynamic player who can help immediately, and Tyrese Haliburton gets the nod ahead of Anthony Edwards. Haliburton, a combo guard out of Iowa State University, inexplicably fell to the 12th pick to land with the Sacramento Kings.
Here he leaps all the way up to the second pick. Haliburton had an excellent rookie season, averaging 30.1 minutes per game for the Kings. Dinged in the draft process for an unorthodox shooting motion, he stroked the ball to the tune of 40.9 percent from 3-point range.
Haliburton is a capable ball-handler and could likely be a full-time point guard, but he is in a great situation with the Kings because he can both back De’Aaron Fox up and play alongside him, spacing the floor as a knockdown shooter. Defensively he has length and instincts to help suppress the opposing offense.
The Warriors would have had immediate help in a season when they were beset by injuries. More importantly, Haliburton is a great fit in a backcourt rotation with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and his defensive ability would allow him to pair with Jordan Poole and slide Thompson to the bench 3. This is a no-brainer pick in the redraft.
The Minnesota Timberwolves missed out on the top player in the NBA Draft, not by random chance but because they prioritized fit on a perennial lottery team rather than talent and upside. In doing so they took a teenager in Anthony Edwards who is clearly not the prospect that LaMelo Ball is. That being said, he showed during the back-half of his rookie year that he is still one heck of a prospect.
That’s why the Charlotte Hornets can’t get cute here in the redraft and take anyone other than Edwards. There is a clear top-3 in this draft, and Edwards is a strong consolation prize with Ball going first overall here.
He is a great scorer, even if his combination of explosion and fearlessness leads him to take shots that he otherwise shouldn’t. Once Minnesota’s other star-like players returned from injury his production took off. He is clearly better, at least right now, deployed as the second or third option within an offense.
Edwards’ athleticism and size mean he should be a reasonable defender one day if he puts in the work. He was an abysmal player in terms of efficiency, defense and on-off numbers as a rookie, which is not as exciting as the rise of Tyrese Haliburton or Immanuel Quickley. It is, however, secondary to the fact that Edwards is a truly special scorer, and the team that determines how to unlock him will be lucky indeed.
Here the lucky team is the Charlotte Hornets, who miss out on Ball but get a dynamic offensive piece all the same. He could play alongside Terry Rozier in a large backcourt or downshift to play small forward with Rozier and Devonte Graham. The Hornets likely would not have been as good this past season, but Edwards would give them upside for the future.
We have our first player land with the same team in our 2020 NBA redraft. Last November the Chicago Bulls took Florida State backup forward Patrick Williams. An up-and-down rookie season and a less-than-elite lottery behind him has ended with Williams landing in the same spot.
The theory of Williams is still very much the same. At 6’7″ and 215 pounds he has the size to play either forward spot, and he is already a positive defender even as one of the youngest rookies in the league. Williams will not turn 20 until late in August, weeks before the start of his second season.
His defensive chops fill a major need on this Bulls team, which traded for Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline. With Vucevic and Zach LaVine locked in as starters, the players around them need to be positives on the defensive end. Williams fits the bill.
On offense, he is still a raw prospect, yet he showed flashes of creating his shot with the ball. He largely filled a small offensive role as a rookie, with just a 14.9 percent usage rate, but knocked down his shots at a solid clip (including 39.1 percent from deep). That side of the ball is where he needs to continue to develop, but his defense and offensive upside make him the best fit at fourth in this redraft.
This is where our 2020 redraft starts to veer off course from the actual draft in a major way. Jaden McDaniels was one of the nation’s top prospects coming out of high school, but a poor freshman season at Washington dropped him down the draft board. The Minnesota Timberwolves took him with their third first-round pick at 28.
McDaniels was not a slam dunk rookie Messiah coming in and dominating. He averaged just 6.8 points per game and shot just 44.7 percent from the field. Yet this high in the draft teams need to shoot for upside, and McDaniels provides the best combination of floor and upside still available.
Where McDaniels especially impressed was on defense, where his 6’9″ frame gave McDaniels the size to cover the perimeter and interior for a Minnesota team without many plus defenders. The Timberwolves have a trio of special offensive players, none of which play defense.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are similar, and McDaniels could slot at the 4 alongside either Jarrett Allen or Kevin Love and hold his own on defense. Offensively he is a work in progress, but he still has the upside to become a plus on that end as well. He shot a reasonable 36.4 percent from deep.
The player who was a top-5 prospect in high school is worth a lottery pick, and his positional value (combo forward) and defensive ability make him worth a show at 5. The Cleveland Cavaliers would benefit significantly from having a player like him on their roster, a player with the floor of Larry Nance Jr. (currently the Cavaliers’ starting 4) and a much higher ceiling.
NBA teams need 48 minutes of solid point guard play, and there are certainly centers who provide solid value to their teams. Yet every team desires more wings than they currently have, and that is why a good wing is more valuable as a draft pick than a good center.
The Atlanta Hawks originally went with a center in the 2020 NBA Draft, but looking back they probably wish they had gone for a wing player instead, especially with how good Clint Capela has played for the Hawks.
Saddiq Bey has been the best of the “wings who are unlikely to go to an All-Star Game” from this draft class. Bey played over 1900 minutes as a rookie, fourth in the class, and was second in win shares to only Tyrese Haliburton.
Bey is likely to slot in as a 3-and-D player on most teams, and he played that role well even as a first-year player. He shot 38 percent from 3-point range on 6.6 attempts per game (8.7 attempts per-36). No rookie hit as many as Bey’s 175 3-pointers this season.
Bey was an inconsistent defender, but profiles as a strong defender on the wing as he grows as a player. The Hawks would have a talented wing in their rotation, which will obviously help them moving forward but could even have helped them during their playoff run this year.
In the original 2020 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons had three picks in the top-19 and went point guard, center and wing in that order. They remedy that this time around by going for a wing first thing.
Desmond Bane is not going to be a star, but one year into his career is clearly a high-floor 3-and-D wing who can fit perfectly onto any team in any lineup.
Saddiq Bey may have been a more prolific shooter as a rookie, playing more minutes on a team with fewer offensive options. Bane, however, was the most accurate high-volume rookie, hitting a blistering 43.2 percent from deep.
Only four rookies tallied a higher “Value Over Replacement Player” than Bane did, and similarly just four players had more win shares. He was a seamless fit on the Memphis Grizzlies, as he would be for the Detroit Pistons.
The New York Knicks selected two players in the first round of the 2020 NBA Draft, taking one with the eighth pick and one with the 25th. In the end, they came away with roughly the eighth-best and 25th-best players but in reverse order.
In the redraft they start to right that wrong, getting Immanuel Quickley at eight. The former Kentucky Wildcat was the second point guard from his school taken in the draft, but he leapfrogs his former teammate Tyrese Maxey by a significant margin this time around.
Quickley helped the Knicks win games, something he wasn’t supposed to do as a non-lottery rookie. He had a robust 25.6 percent usage rate, second on the team behind Julius Randle. He struggled to finish inside but was an unexpectedly strong 38.9 percent from deep. He was fourth among rookies in win shares playing a key role on the 4-seed.
At 6’3″ Quickley has size as a point guard, and he fits perfectly on a team with another ball-handler at another position. That’s most teams, including the Knicks with R.J. Barrett. He is a no-brainer top-10 pick in the redraft.
James Wiseman did not have a good rookie season. He missed training camp with COVID-19, suffered a wrist injury just as he was finding his place, and then a knee injury requiring surgery ended his season prematurely.
There are a number of factors working against Wiseman. He is a center, which lowers his positional value. He looked lost on defense, providing some highlight blocks but otherwise not seeming to process the game fast enough. He bobbles passes, can’t finish in traffic and ultimately doesn’t seem to have much upside to become an All-Star.
Yet there is a hope of it, seen in the flashes of those blocked shots or throwing down alley-oops. He might one day be hitting 3-pointers mixed with crushing screens leading to lobs. He has the frame and athleticism to be a really good rim protector.
Perhaps another, normal offseason can help him process the game faster. That’s the sort of hope that keeps Wiseman in the top 10. He might still be a really good player, and his natural talent and skill set are enough that the Washington Wizards take a chance on him at 9.
When the Phoenix Suns originally came on the clock in the 2020 NBA Draft, they had a number of intriguing prospects available to choose from. In fact, five of the nine players who have already gone in this redraft were still on the board, and many watching were screaming at them to take someone other than Jalen Smith, the center they did take.
Devin Vassell would have been an excellent player to take instead, an instant 3-and-D wing who could have played postseason minutes for the Suns as a rookie. While he has been a low-minute player for a San Antonio Spurs team flush with guards and wings, he has shown to be a solid player already in his short career.
Offensively he is a dependent player, not a star-in-waiting, but teams need floor-spacers who fit in their role and that fits what Vassell can offer. Defensively he is a smart defender who doesn’t make many mistakes, and he can play either the 2 or the 3.
On the Suns he would be a perfect bench piece, slotting between Cameron Payne and Cam Johnson on the bench with a small role in the rotation. As Mikal Bridges, Johnson and Jae Crowder have proven, playing on this team with Chris Paul running the show guarantees open catch-and-shoot 3-pointers to feast on. Vassell would be a great fit on this roster.
The Atlanta Hawks drafted Onyeka Okongwu sixth overall in last November’s draft, securing their backup center of the future and betting on the upside of a talented and versatile young big man. While injuries and the presence of starting center Clint Capela have kept him to a small minute total, it’s clear that Okongwu has a lot of upside still to tap.
Okongwu was clearly the best defensive big man in the 2020 NBA Draft, and he has shown that in brief stints. He can protect the rim and switch out onto the perimeter, allowing the Hawks to play different schemes when he is on the court.
The San Antonio Spurs could deploy him in a similar way, slotting him in as the backup to Jakob Poetl and potentially replacing him down the line. There is an argument to be made that he should go before James Wiseman, but the upside of Wiseman is still probably greater than Okongwu.
Okongwu is undersized at 6’8″, but he doesn’t let that stop him from protecting the rim; he had a few impressive blocks of opposing centers in the Hawks’ postseason run. Looking forward he should only get better on defense, with the possibility of becoming one of the league’s better interior defenders still on the table.
Aleksej Pokusevski, Oklahoma City Thunder. Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
We can start by stating the obvious: Aleksej Pokusevski was not a good NBA player this past season. Out of every player drafted in 2020, he had the lowest win shares at minus 1.9. Not only was he bad, but he soaked up 1090 minutes on a tanking Oklahoma City Thunder team.
Even so, “Poku” rose from his previous draft slot at 17 into the lottery at 12. The reason is that one year in, no one is completely sure whether Pokusevski has star-level upside or not. It is rare but certainly possible for a player to be abysmal as a rookie and grow into something great. Pokusevski absolutely had flashes of something special, from running a pick-and-roll as the ball-handler or sinking a deep 3-pointer. He scored 29 points on 10-for-19 from the field and a whopping 6-for-9 from 3-point range.
He’s also the rawest player to enter the NBA in some time, all Mr. Fantastic limbs and turnovers trying to create with the ball. It’s very possible that Pokusevski ends up flunking out of the league, more so than any other player in the lottery mix. Yet there is also still a possibility he can grow into something special, and for a franchise with a rebuilding mindset and plenty of patience, he is worth the swing. The Sacramento Kings should have the former and probably lacks the latter, and they would be an intriguing place for Poku to land in this redraft.
With Lonzo Ball a free agent (albeit restricted) in 2021 and Eric Bledsoe not a part of the New Orleans Pelicans’ long-term future, they took a shot on a replacement in the NBA Draft, taking former Alabama point guard Kira Lewis Jr. with the 13th pick.
This time around they have the same need, and Lewis not only projects as the best of the remaining point guards, he showed flashes of enough to make him a good value here. Lewis is blazing fast, ready to get out in the open court on a fast break and score or set up teammates. On a team also boasting Zion Williamson, maximizing transition opportunities is a no-brainer.
Lewis is not large, at just 6’1″, but he won’t turn 21 until the last couple of weeks of the regular season next season. His excellent free-throw shooting suggests he will grow as a shooter, and he has some verve as a playmaker setting his teammates up. He might prove to be too much of a defensive minus or inconsistent shooter to hang around, but he could also grow into the starting point guard on Zion Williamson’s future contending teams.
The Boston Celtics originally drafted Vanderbilt shooting wing Aaron Nesmith, and he would not be a bad pick again in the redraft. Instead, the Celtics are going to take a player they didn’t have a chance to draft last time, Israeli forward Deni Avdija.
One of the best things going for Avdija is his self-confidence, the belief that he can score the winning basket and guard the opponent’s best player. On a Washington Wizards team flush with players who love having the ball and somewhat bereft of plus defenders, Avdija was able to step in and make an immediate impact as a defender and supporting offensive piece.
Avdija is probably not going to be good enough to be the top offensive option on a team, which means he has to build the other areas of his game; his outside shooting, cutting, etc. If he does, he could capture some of that high-level upside he still possesses.
The Detroit Pistons fully embraced their rebuild this past season, embracing a tank that would end with the first overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. In the 2020 offseason, they traded a combination of players and second-round picks to come away with three first-round picks in the top 19 picks. One of the players they came away with was Washington center Isaiah Stewart.
The bruising 250-pound center, nicknamed “Beef Stew” by some brilliant individual, led the rookie class in total rebounds and rebounds per game, including 2.3 offensive rebounds per game despite playing just 21.4 minutes per game.
Stewart is purely a slightly undersized center with negligible perimeter skills on either end of the court. He is growing into a strong rim protector, and he can defend in the post, but he is likely not nimble enough to safely switch onto the perimeter regularly.
The Orlando Magic have been trying to find their young center of the future for years, and Stewart could be a solid choice on a roster still hunting for perimeter creators to pair with him. He does all the little things a team wants from their center, setting crushing screens and cleaning the glass. The Magic could use a player who just fills a role every single game.
In our 2020 NBA Redraft, the Detroit Pistons have already taken Desmond Bane, a lower-upside wing who stepped in as a rookie and made 43.2 percent of his 3-pointers. Here they can continue to stock the roster with wings and take a player with more upside in Isaac Okoro.
The scout on Okoro coming into the 2020 NBA Draft was of a player with elite defensive upside on the wing who could score and handle but was neither a high-usage option nor a floor-spacing one. That all largely held up in his rookie season.
Okoro saw a lot of minutes as one of only two positive defenders on the team, and he was really good even if he was put in a bad position in lineups with no other defenders. The question is whether he can develop into a player on offense that opposing defenses will even guard, as he shot just 42 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point range.
If his shot comes around, he can be a very useful rotation piece on the wing. If it doesn’t, and he doesn’t come along as an offensive player, then he likely won’t be able to find minutes for a team trying to win.
The only player in the 2020 NBA Draft’s original first-round not to play this past season, Leandro Balmoro is a talented combo guard from Argentina who is playing for Barcelona over in the Spanish Liga ACB. The Minnesota Timberwolves first took him 23rd overall in November, and despite not playing an NBA minute this past year has only increased his draft stock due to his play in Europe.
Balmoro brings a lot of the same general qualities that another Minnesota draft pick playing in Spain did. Both Balmoro and Ricky Rubio are tough point-of-attack defenders and creative passers, and both have question marks about their shooting. If Balmoro can add strength and sharpen his stroke, he would be a steal at 17.
As it is, Balmoro should be able to step in as a bench guard right away next season and has versatility and enough size to play either backcourt position. If the Oklahoma City Thunder were able to take him in this redraft, he could pair with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to give them a two-way backcourt of the future. It’s possible Balmoro doesn’t turn out, but all the signs point to a player only scraping the surface of his potential.
Aaron Nesmith goes in the same basic range as he did in the original 2020 NBA Draft, falling from 14 to 18 to go to the Dallas Mavericks. Injuries limited Nesmith to just 46 games this season, but he largely proved himself to be the player most expected coming into the league.
The former Vanderbilt wing shot 37 percent from long range, taking 60.7 percent of his shots from deep. Playing on a team trying to compete he saw just 14.5 minutes per game, with a low usage even when he was on the court.
The Dallas Mavericks would most likely deploy him in a similar role, reasonably expecting his shot to improve as he enters the season healthy. Playing alongside Luka Doncic would likely open up the court for him as well.
Defensively Nesmith was fine, nothing special but also not a targeted liability. Right now he projects as a bench wing, a valuable commodity but not worth a lottery pick.
To this point in our redraft, all eighteen players went in the first round of the original draft last November. For the first time, we reach past into the depths of the second round, selecting a player a handful of analysts pegged as a first rounder but who fell to 58th.
Paul Reed was one of the nation’s top defenders his final season at DePaul, and he brought that intensity and ability to the NBA as well. Per-36 minutes (obviously not a perfect measurement) Reed averaged 2.0 steals and 2.6 blocks to go with 12.4 rebounds.
At 6’9″ Reed can easily play the 4 and slide to the 5 in certain situations. He can guard on-ball but is also a maelstrom on the back line leaping into passing lanes.
Far from just a one trick pony, Reed has shown a fair amount of offensive potential as well. He scored 22.3 points per game in the G League Bubble with the Delaware Blue Coats, hitting 44.4 percent of his 3-pointers. In 31.5 minutes per game he also pulled in 11.9 rebounds and a combined 3.8 “STOCKs” (steals and blocks).
Reed will force his way into the Philadelphia rotation next season, whether or not Ben Simmons is still around. In our redraft the Detroit Pistons gain an extremely talented player who could leap higher when we do this again in a year. Reed has been that good thus far in his limited opportunities.
Obi Toppin took the world by storm in his final college season, one of the nation’s best players on an expected 1-seed. He was an offensive powerhouse, scoring everywhere around the rim. Even if he lacked star potential, his polished offensive game was expected to translate to the next level immediately.
At first it was nowhere to be found. Toppin struggled to adjust to NBA defenses, and even with his interior gifts he shot just 49.8 percent from the field. He tried to develop a perimeter shot on the fly to earn minutes alongside Julius Randle on the New York Knicks.
Where Toppin did impress was on defense, where he proved to be a solid addition in the midst of an elite ecosystem. In fact, by the time the postseason rolled around he had earned a consistent spot in the rotation, and was an overall positive player for the Knicks as a rotational forward.
The Miami Heat went for bench frontcourt help in November, and this time around they go for a player in Toppin with more upside than their original pick, Precious Achiuwa. The theory of Toppin is still hazy, but if he can improve his outside shot and maintain the defensive numbers he could still be an NBA starter.
In the 20-30 range of the original 2020 NBA Draft, five teams took ball-handling guards to slot in as backups or even future starters. A season later four of those five will still go in this range, just in a different order, as only Immanual Quickley proved himself to be significantly greater than his draft slot.
Payton Pritchard originally went 26 to the Boston Celtics, and immediately stepped into a rotation spot with Kemba Walker out to start the season. Over the course of the year he played 1,268 minutes, 11th-most in this class, appearing in 66 of 72 games.
His 3-point shot was of immediate use to the Celtics, with Pritchard hitting 41.1 percent of his 3.8 3-pointers per game; per-36 he was taking 7.0 attempts per game. Whether he is best deployed as an off-ball guard capable of attacking closeouts or if that is simply how the Celtics used him, he did not have a lot of reps running the offense on-ball.
Pritchard’s production for a playoff team was immediate, which is why he rose a few slots. The reason he did not rise more is that his upside as a 23 year-old appears to be limited. The Philadelphia 76ers can use guards with shooting ability, and even if he doesn’t become more would be a useful piece for their guard rotation.
The Memphis Grizzlies came out of the 2020 NBA Draft with players taken 30th and 35th, and both end up going in the first 22 picks of our redraft. At 22 the Utah Jazz get a much better return on investment for a backup center, taking Michigan State’s Xavier Tillman instead of Udoka Azubuike this time around.
For a team with multiple frontcourt injuries over the course of the season, Tillman got plenty of run early on to show he was an NBA-caliber big man. He did that and more, stepping in as a positive defensive big from the jump. He averaged 1.1 blocks and 1.5 steals per-36 minutes, and he provided very solid rim protection for the Grizzlies’ back line.
Even with the full frontcourt healthy in the playoffs he earned consistent minutes, even playing a key role taking down the Golden State Warriors in the play-in tournament.
If the Jazz had taken Tillman instead of Azubuike in November, they could now offload Derrick Favors to save money and depend on Tillman to back up Rudy Gobert. He isn’t going to grow into Joel Embiid, but he has proven to be a solid player within his role, and teams trying to win can use that in the latter third of the first round.
Precious Achiuwa is a high-energy big man with decent defensive tools, the kind of player who enters a game and can change the tone just from his intensity. He flies around the court, chasing rebounds and moving his hands into passing lanes.
The question for Achiuwa moving forward is whether he can be more. A player like Paul Reed went much later than Achiuwa because he was older and without the pedigree of Achiuwa, but he at least matched Achiuwa defensively and was a much better offensive player.
Achiuwa didn’t even attempt outside shots, instead trying to stay in his lane around the rim. The problem for the Miami Heat was that they had too many rotation players who didn’t space the floor, and that made it difficult to play Achiuwa for extended minutes.
Can Achiuwa add a 3-point shot to his arsenal? If he cannot, he will need to prove he can play center and protect the rim at a high level. The Minnesota Timberwolves provide a soft landing spot as a team that needs some players who care on defense, and can survive his lack of shooting with a stretch-5 in Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Houston Rockets had a difficult season, from James Harden phoning in the beginning of the season to gargantuan losing streaks after he was traded. One bright spot was the play of their only draft pick in 2020, Kenyon Martin Jr.
Similar to his identically-monikered father, Martin Jr. is strongest on the defensive end of the court. He plays hard on defense and sprints into his rotations, and it’s possible he grows into a team’s wing stopper down the road.
The question will always be whether Martin Jr. can bring it on offense, and the early returns were positive. He shot 36.5 percent from deep, a somewhat welcome surprise, and if he can continue to grow as a shooter and ball-mover he might just end up as a low-end starter down the road.
The Denver Nuggets ended up trading the original pick here, R.J. Hampton, as part of the Aaron Gordon trade. If they don’t trade the pick this time around, Martin Jr. could fit into their wing rotation spanning the gap between Jamal Murray at the 1 and Michael Porter Jr. at the 4. With such offensive firepower around him, Martin Jr. could be deployed as a defensive option in a safer environment than he had with the Rockets.
Tyrese Maxey is a difficult player to place in the 2020 NBA redraft. He originally went 21st to the Philadelphia 76ers, who were (and are) hoping they found their point guard of the future. A season later, it appears that Maxey’s Kentucky teammate Immanuel Quickley is the better bet to hit that upside.
The question becomes what Maxey’s upside still is. He can create with the basketball in his hands and isn’t afraid to take tough shots, which can be a positive and a negative depending on the context. He shot just 46.2 percent from the field and 30.1 percent from 3-point range, both really tough numbers for a lead ball-handler.
Maxey was forced to try and make something happen with the ball on bench units often featuring two or three non-shooters around him. In a better ecosystem, perhaps even as soon as next year’s 76ers rotation, he might have more room to work with and bring back better numbers.
Maxey competed on defense and is a reasonably strong passer. His shot looks good and he hit 87.1 percent from the stripe, so he could still grow into a good shooter. A point guard without a shot is a rare creature in today’s NBA; he most likely will need to hit from outside at a reasonable clip to be more than an end-of-roster guard down the line.
One of the biggest fallers in our redraft, Killian Hayes drops from seventh down to 26th. One could make the case that dropping him so far is unfair, as Hayes was hindered by a hip injury that saw him play just 26 games this past season.
What Hayes was able to do in that small sample size was be one of the worst players in the league, completely unable to score and a trainwreck on defense. He shot just 35.3 percent from the field and an even worse 27.8 percent from deep, while turning it over 3.2 times per game.
Turnovers can be a problem for any rookie, as they are adjusting to the speed of the game, but Hayes took it to a whole other level. Hayes turned it over on 28.5 percent of possessions, second-most in the league among players with at least 100 minutes.
Bad shooting, lots of turnovers and no defensive impact make for a very bad outcome. Only Oklahoma City’s Aleksej Pokusevski hurt his team more according to win shares.
One bad season, especially an abbreviated one with a hip injury in the middle, does not write Hayes off. He still possesses the skills that saw him drafted seventh overall, and he was as high as first on some draft analysts’ boards prior to the draft. He has a lot of work to do to climb from “worst guard in the league” to even “rotation” guard, but Hayes still has the upside to go higher. In three years he will likely go much sooner or much later than this.
The Boston Celtics could really use an upside pick here and a chance to find their long-term point guard, even if he has significant downside as well. They don’t need another bench player; the upside of Hayes is still there and could mean a formidable core in a few years.
As a general rule, rookies get playing time for one of two reasons. The first is if they are top-10 picks on bad teams; the other if they earn a spot in the rotation on a stronger team. Cole Anthony took the less-traveled third path, where every other guard on the Orlando Magic went down with injuries and he got the run of the place.
Despite being injured at times himself, Anthony appeared in 47 games, starting 34 of them, and averaged 27.1 minutes per game. His usage rate was a whopping 24.3 percent, a crippling number when you factor in a 49.6 percent true-shooting percentage and 14.8 percent turnover rate.
Anthony was not prepared for the situation he was thrust into, running the offense for an NBA team early in his rookie season after a lackluster and injury-filled freshman year at North Carolina. He played hard, and deserves credit for that, but he did not play very well.
Anthony was a little older than most of his classmates, already 21, but that still leaves plenty of time for development. He was an elite prospect coming out of high school, and was expected to be a top-5 pick before his poor freshman year. The Denver Nuggets can bet on his upside while at the very worst getting a point guard who can play a handful of minutes down the road.
Malachi Flynn came into the league at 22 years old, so what he provided early on is likely to be a lot closer to what he will ultimately become than a teenager entering the league. What Flynn provided was a tough guard who competed hard and bothered opposing point guards defensively, but who shot poorly (32.1 percent from 3-point range).
NBA teams, both the Toronto Raptors in self-evaluation and teams in this redraft, have to decide whether the shooting can come around. Flynn did shoot 80.4 percent from the line, not elite but speaking to a better stroke than the 3-point percentage does.
The point in Flynn’s favor is that he contributes elsewhere in the box score as well, rebounding well for a point guard and proving to be a capable passer. His assist percentage of 21.4 percent is above average and speaks to his utility on the ball.
The Minnesota Timberwolves here can invest in their backcourt of the future, with Flynn a capable backup to D’Angelo Russell after Ricky Rubio is moved on from.
At this point in our redraft we are playing more for upside than production, as all of the rookies who played well have already been selected. Instead we can tab a point guard who played a lot, and flashed some potential to be something more.
For much of the NBA Draft cycle, Theo Maledon was considered a fringe lottery prospect. By the time November rolled around he was more of a fringe first-rounder, and indeed he went 34th overall.
A strong athlete, Maledon came into the league raw and in need of long-term development. He got some of that by means of playing time, totaling 1,778 minutes for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Only four rookies played more minutes than Maledon, who appeared in 65 games.
Offensively he was wildly inefficient, shooting just 36.8 from the field, but he went through bursts of looking like the onetime lottery prospect he was. Defensively he competes but isn’t anything special. The upside of a future starting point guard is certainly there, but more likely is a longtime backup, which is still a valuable bet with the 29th pick. Here the Toronto Raptors get an upside play to help be the long-term replacement for Kyle Lowry.
There are a number of prospects in play for this final pick, as any of them would be low-probability shots at a future starter or higher-probability shots at a non-starter. Those who just missed the cut are on the next slide.
Here the Memphis Grizzlies will take a shot on R.J. Hampton, the young shooting guard who initially went to the Denver Nuggets before he was traded to the Orlando Magic.
The hope for Hampton is that he can grow into a reliable scorer and shot-creator for others as a combo guard, possibly as a starter but more likely in a 6th-man role. He is a natural scorer but a below-average shooter thus far in his career. He shot a concerning 67.1 percent from the line this year, so rather than simply shooting poorly this year (31 percent from deep) he seems to be a poor shooter, and will need to develop that area of his game.
Hampton is a fluid athlete and rebounds well for a guard, and his defensive metrics were not terrible, suggesting he doesn’t have to necessarily be a negative on that end. Memphis doesn’t have a lot of upside plays on its team right now, and Hampton represents a player who can become something more than a role player. He might also never improve that shot and be unplayable, but the upside is worth the 30th pick.
2020 NBA Redraft: Just Missed the Cut
Players listed in no particular order
Tre Jones, PG, Duke – A hard-nosed defender with all the “intangibles” you look for in a role player, Jones needs to improve as a shooter (accuracy and volume) to be more useful to a team.
Tyrell Terry, PG, Stanford – Tyrell Terry was billed as the next Seth Curry, and considering the slow path Curry took to becoming an NBA starter perhaps that is right. Terry couldn’t find the court this season and missed all seven of his 3-pointers. If he can find some playing time there’s the chance for something great here.
Jordan Nwora, F, Louisville – A knockdown shooter, Nwora probably won’t be much more than a shooting specialist. He is not afraid to let it fly, and he shot 45.2 percent from deep this season with the Bucks.
Justinian Jessup, SG, Boise State – A draft-and-stash pick by the Golden State Warriors, Jessup has been playing in Australia’s NBL this past year. He is an excellent shooter who has flashed a more well-rounded game while down under.
Jalen Smith, C, Maryland – Smith is a stretch-5 who has been buried on the Phoenix Suns, but he was a fringe first-round prospect coming into the draft and could still be a useful bench piece for teams looking to play 5-out.
Josh Green, SG, Arizona – Coming into the draft Green was one of a handful of 3-and-D prospects, all with slightly different strengths and weaknesses. Players like Desmond Bane and Saddiq Bey improved their stock, while Green has a poor rookie year and has slid a bit.
Naji Marshall, F, Xavier – Marshall lacks upside but was able to see the court as a rotation player for an injured Pelicans squad. He flies around the court and fights for every rebound and loose ball, but he probably projects as a situational bench player on a good team.
Mason Jones, SG, Arkansas – A favorite of “Draft Twitter” leading into the draft, Jones went undrafted and then played just 334 minutes as a rookie. He can score and pass and should get some run in NBA Summer League and earn a shot to sign somewhere.
Nico Mannion, PG, Arizona – Once a lottery prospect, the flame-headed Mannion fell into the second round but still boasts upside as a backup point guard. He dropped 19.3 points and 6.8 assists per game in the G-League Bubble and has a smooth shooting stroke.