If the 2020-21 NBA Playoffs are anything like the regular season, they will be chaotic, unpredictable, and incredibly fun to watch. Even with unprecedented player absences due to a shortened season in the midst of a pandemic, countless games this year provided a high level of entertainment, culminating in the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers going down to the wire in the play-in game Wednesday night.
After a chaotic season, it’s even more difficult to predict the 2021 NBA playoffs. Which teams are contenders and which are pretenders?
With the Boston Celtics, Lakers, Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies now advancing out of the play-in tournament, the playoff field is set. 16 teams will now compete to reach to the NBA Finals and to hoist the trophy at the end. How many of them can reasonably expect to have a chance at doing so?
What is a true contender in the NBA playoffs?
Not every team can be reasonably called a contender. Some seasons it seems locked from the start of the playoffs who will reach the NBA Finals; it felt inevitable we would see the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors each year for a few seasons. Other years, parity is pressing onto the bracket and more teams have a shot at the title.
This year is in more of the latter category, as no team has escaped the season without injuries and inconsistency affecting them to some extent. The top two seeds in each conference combined to win 0 series last year and just three total games. Conversely the two teams that played in the NBA Finals a year ago come into the playoffs as sixth and seventh seeds.
Theoretically anything could happen in the playoffs and anyone could win the title. Realistically a smaller circle of contenders exist. Which teams in the playoff field can put together a run to the NBA Finals? For those on the fence, what factors could propel them one way or the other?
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards are one of the hottest teams in basketball right now. They closed the regular season 15-5 and just beat the Indiana Pacers handily to make it into the playoff field. Russell Westbrook is popping off triple-doubles like they are candy and Bradley Beal was the league’s second-leading scorer.
Unfortunately, they are now running into the Eastern Conference’s top seed in the Philadelphia 76ers. The Wizards, who at times like to play lineups with three guards, are a team lacking in rotation size. They shuffle through three centers but otherwise have a slim stretch-4, second-year forward Rui Hachimura and a collection of guards.
That means they will be fighting uphill defending the impossibly large 76ers, a team that makes one think of the Monstars. Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons form a collection of imposing collection of tall and long players. Add Matisse Thybulle and Danny Green and you have a lineup of Mr. Fantastics blocking driving and passing lanes.
Washington doesn’t have anyone to defend Embiid or Harris, and the 76ers have plenty of options for Westbrook and Beal. Even if somehow the Wizards captured lightning in a bottle and benefited from a Philadelphia injury or two, they don’t have the depth or versatility to win three more series and take home the title.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics should be a contender. They have been in the Eastern Conference Finals two of the last three seasons, they have five reliable perimeter players and a respected head coach. Jayson Tatum is an All-NBA candidate, and he dropped a 50 spot in his last game.
Unfortunately, that is not the narrative for this team. They stumbled to the finish line this season, disappointing early and late and landing as the seventh seed with a .500 record. Jaylen Brown made his first All-Star game but will also miss the postseason with an injury. Kemba Walker is his old self just once every few games. The Celtics’ centers are undersized, injured or traded to the Chicago Bulls to save money.
Falling to seventh also means the Celtics have to start their playoff journey playing the Brooklyn Nets, who at long last seem to have their stars healthy and ready to go. A healthy Celtics team might be one of the best in the league at guarding all three: put Marcus Smart on James Harden, Brown on Kyrie Irving and Tatum on Kevin Durant. Yet with Brown out that means either Evan Fournier or Walker have to check an All-NBA guard, a problem for the Celtics.
Perhaps this is a one-season wobble, and next year the Celtics will have a healthy Brown and Walker, with Fournier a versatile 6th man. Robert Williams will be a year older and more ready for the big stage. This season, however, a run to the title is not in the cards.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Miami Heat
Last year the Miami Heat were the surprise of the NBA Bubble, shooting from the fifth seed into the NBA Finals. They flummoxed the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks with their defense and then blasted the Boston Celtics with their offense before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals.
This year, the team’s stars have been just as good as a year before. Bam Adebayo has continued to mature into a two-way force inside, running the offense from the elbow and guarding all five positions. Jimmy Butler is having perhaps his best season doing just about everything else on both offense and defense for the Heat.
The problem is the rest of the roster. Tyler Herro hasn’t taken the step forward most assumed for him after a short offseason, Goran Dragic looks like he has lost a step. Jae Crowder is playing in Phoenix; Kelly Olynyk was traded for Victor Oladipo, who played four ineffectual games before the Heat lost him for the season.
They draw the Milwaukee Bucks again, and they could have their number again. Yet the Bucks are more versatile than they were a season ago, and the Heat are less. If they do knock off the Bucks, their reward is the Brooklyn Nets. After them, it is likely the Philadelphia 76ers in their path. The magic of a year ago could come together, but only magic suggests it should be expected.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Atlanta Hawks
An NBA team with its eyes on winning multiple series will want to build a team with certain characteristics. You need a lead creator, an offensive player who can create for himself and others at a high level. You need a wing defender who can take on opposing stars and a rim protector who can guard inside. You also need enough depth with differing skill sets to mix-and-match based on strategy and need.
The Atlanta Hawks have all of that, at least on paper. Trae Young is a blossoming offensive star, De’Andre Hunter and Clint Capela are defensively stout, and they have 12 players to rotate through for their postseason rotation. Being as how we haven’t seen this team in action for a playoff series, it’s an unknown whether all of these parts will fit together as well as the Hawks hope.
Positively for Atlanta is that they get to start their postseason lives against a lesser opponent, the fourth-seeded New York Knicks who were much closer to 7th than they were to third. While the Knicks certainly bring a stout defense to the table, they also have tentpole stars without playoff experience and an offense propped up by toothpicks and shoestrings.
After the Knicks, though, the Hawks would need to beat the impossibly large Philadelphia 76ers, a much more daunting task. After that a matchup with either Brooklyn, Milwaukee or the team that defeats them. The Hawks are getting better every year, but they are not quite at the level of competition needed.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – New York Knicks
Prior to this season, the New York Knicks were expected to be in contention not for an NBA championship, but for the worst record in the league. They outperformed their preseason over/under by around 20 wins, finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 41-31 record.
It was not a fluke, either, but built on the back of a stout defense. The entire roster bought into new head coach Tom Thibodeau’s approach, and the Knicks finished first in opponents points per game and third in defensive rating. Veterans such as Nerlens Noel and Derrick Rose contributed alongside young up-and-comers such as Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett.
Julius Randle was at the center of it all, and any run the Knicks hope to put together centers on him. He was a one-man machine on offense, hitting difficult shots at a high percentage. That sounds like a recipe for regression, but it’s also a recipe for scoring against an elite defense.
That is who the Knicks will face if they advance past the Atlanta Hawks, which is not a given by itself. Waiting for the Knicks will almost certainly be the Philadelphia 76ers, one of the two teams to finish with a better defensive rating. Scoring against Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons is one of the tallest tasks there is.
At the end of the day, the Knicks should be about even money to beat the Atlanta Hawks, but it is hard to imagine them making it past the 76ers, who are a perfect fit to smother the Knicks. Beating the Sixers would mean a date with the Milwaukee Bucks or Brooklyn Nets, most likely, two teams with the firepower to overcome the Knicks’ defense. It has been an incredible season for the Knicks, but it won’t end in a title.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks under head coach Mike Budenholzer found the best way to maximize winning around their franchise star Giannis Antetokounmpo. They spaced the floor on offense, protected the rim on defense and put the ball in his hands whenever possible.
Unfortunately, playoff basketball is about taking away what you do best, and when elite defensive squads with elite strategic coaches took away what the Bucks did best, they did not have the personnel or the experience needed to counter in a successful way.
That has changed this season, with hesitant playoff shooter Eric Bledsoe swapped out for Jrue Holiday, who brings even more defensive versatility than Bledsoe while having the ability to create shots for himself on the other end. Wall off the paint for Antetokounmpo and now Holiday or Khris Middleton can break you down.
The Bucks aren’t as deep as they used to be, but they have more options and will be harder to shut down. If their role players can step up to a decent level, their stars can absolutely lead them to a title. Mike Budenholzer is a potential liability against some of the elite coaches in the league, but this team is every bit a true contender and matches up well against the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers.
Verdict: Contender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets have the greatest collection of offensive talent in the league, and possibly that has ever been assembled in league history. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden are all top-15 offensive players, if not higher. Joe Harris is one of the league’s best shooters. Blake Griffin is not that far removed from being a top offensive star.
The problem is the defense, which was not good during the regular season; the Nets ranked 23rd in the league in defensive rating. Starting Irving and Harden in the backcourt puts the team at a disadvantage from the jump, but neither Joe Harris nor Kevin Durant are defensive difference makers even if both are solid (Durant was at one point, but hasn’t been this year). That leaves just one spot left in this team’s best lineups to insert a strong defender.
Two questions thus exist for the Nets. The first is whether they can score enough that the defense doesn’t matter. If they score at such a high level that their opponents cannot keep up, it doesn’t matter whether they smothered the other team. The second question is whether other teams will be able to exploit their defensive weaknesses. Some will, some won’t, but at some point the Nets will have to prove they can defend to some level.
This team has all the trappings of a contender, from redundancy in their offensive creation to experience in the postseason, which the team’s stars do at the very least. Head coach Steve Nash has kept this team rolling despite multiple extended absences from the stars. This team may not win, but they are absolutely a contender.
Verdict: Contender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are a contender simply by being the top seed; it’s rare for a team to outpace an entire conference and, barring catastrophic injury, not be a contender. The question for the 76ers is if they are among the title favorites.
The path early in the postseason is a mild one, a stroll towards the Conference Finals. There is a clear “Top 3” in the East, and the Sixers avoid the other two until the third round. In the first round they are playing the Washington Wizards, statistically the worst team in the field on either side. They move on to play the winner of the 4-5 series, either the Atlanta Hawks or the New York Knicks. Both teams are in the postseason for the first time with these respective cores.
Can either of those teams give Philadelphia trouble? Absolutely – Julius Randle has been hitting crazy shots all year surrounded by a great defense, and Trae Young is orchestrating a potent offensive attack. But the 76ers will be heavy and deserved favorites in that series.
The question comes in the Conference Finals and beyond. Do the 76ers have the firepower to keep up with the Brooklyn Nets? Can Joel Embiid dominate against the size of the Milwaukee Bucks? How do elite playoff teams scheme for the weaknesses of Ben Simmons? The 76ers were fodder last season with Simmons injured, but two years ago they were four long, slow bounces away from making the Conference Finals.
In the end I think the 76ers are the third-best playoff team in the East, but they have the pieces to win the Conference. They are a contender, but perhaps not quite as dominant of one as their record and standing suggest.
Verdict: Contender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Memphis Grizzlies
Last season the Memphis Grizzlies came within a whisker of the postseason, losing a tight play-in game in the NBA Bubble to see Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers advance past them. Facing the Golden State Warriors in a similar do-or-die play-in game this year, another superstar point guard was supposed to knock them out just before the playoffs once again.
Instead, one of the league’s deepest and youngest teams knocked off the Warriors in overtime and made it into the field. Ja Morant grew up before the nation’s eyes, directing the offense and hitting big shots. Dillon Brooks is one of the league’s scrappiest wing defenders and is a solid second scorer. The bench is deep enough for head coach Taylor Jenkins to mix-and-match based on the opponent and situation.
Getting real playoff experience is great for this team, and with the Utah Jazz still recovering from some key injuries they have a chance to push the number one seed even if winning is still unlikely. In the end, the rest of this year is free money, a chance for a young core to grow together without real expectations.
Does this team have the top-end talent to become a true contender? Jaren Jackson Jr. is the wild card, as the idea of a high-volume shooting big man with true rim protection and switchability is an elite fit alongside Morant. Reaching true contender status may mean another piece in addition to Jackson, Brooks and Morant. For now, it’s enough to introduce the casual NBA world to one of the next decade’s rising teams.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James and his teams should always be considered a contender until he officially retires or a funeral is held. Even as he ages into his late 30s he is one of the league’s best players, a force on both ends with nearly two decades of NBA experience to draw on.
The problem with slapping “contender” on this team is not simply because they enter the bracket as the seventh seed. They are capable of winning any series in the West no matter whether they have home-court advantage, although that would certainly help. The problems for the defending champions are twofold.
First, their two stars don’t appear completely healthy. LeBron James has bursts of his usual physical dominance, but other times the explosion isn’t there and he settles for passing or taking the outside shot. Anthony Davis is playing heavy minute totals but is shooting about as poorly as it gets for the big man over his last few games. Will they get healthy in time to avoid a playoff loss?
The second problem compounds the first. Nearly every offseason move this team made has turned out to be a downgrade. They completely overhauled a center rotation that wasn’t broken, and the combination of Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell all have glaring weaknesses that are being exploited down the stretch and into the postseason. Dennis Schroder is struggling and being replaced by Alex Caruso. Markieff Morris isn’t even in the rotation.
If the Lakers get healthy, they can beat anyone in the league. They have two top-10 players, both optimal postseason players, and won the title a year ago. This team is a true contender. Yet the health factor is scary, and they won’t have the margin they had last year.
Verdict: Contender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard is an offensive force like few others. He is a threat to shoot from anywhere on the court, with a hyper-fast release, and has a track record of hitting enough to keep defenses up at night. When the games count the most and the pressure is the highest, he shoots even better.
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That means any team playing with Lillard is a threat, no matter the talent level. What benefits the Portland Trail Blazers this season is that the talent around him is in fact very good. Extended injury absences from their second and third-best players deflated their win total, but this team has a theory and parts that fit together.
Does that mean the Trail Blazers and their bottom-third defense can put together enough stops to make noise in the playoffs? It’s hard to say, especially as they will have to face either the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers or the Phoenix Suns in the second round. Lillard and Portland can beat either of those teams, as they can technically beat any team in the league on a given night.
They shouldn’t be favored, however, and that’s only the second round. They may not have to face an elite guard in the opening round with Jamal Murray out, but starting in the second round they just might, and in the Conference Finals and beyond it’s virtually a given. Can this team defend opposing backcourts? Which teams will find the right buttons to push on defense to take the ball out of Lillard’s hands? In the end, this group can battle, but they aren’t a realistic shot to win it all.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks were a popular dark horse title contender before the season, with prognosticators forecasting another step forward for Luka Doncic and a healthy season from Kristaps Porzingis. Doncic made marginal improvements and Porzingis dealt with frequent injuries, and as with many teams, COVID hit the Mavericks hard.
In the end, their struggles the first half of the season dealt them the fifth-seed and a matchup with the LA Clippers, statistically one of the season’s best teams. Last year the Mavericks and Clippers faced off in the NBA Bubble’s first round, with the Clippers winning in six games.
This season doesn’t scream differences, which suggests the outcome could be similar. What plays to the Mavericks’ favor is that their rotation seems to be healthy, including defensive options such as Josh Richardson and Maxi Kleber to help Dallas match up with the Clippers’ elite wing options. Doncic is playing some of his best basketball down the stretch as well.
The Mavericks’ rim protection is subpar, and the right opponent can take the ball out of Doncic’s hands while locking down behind the ball. If the Mavericks can upset the Clippers, that just means three more rounds of opponents who can find ways to shut down Doncic and attack the Mavericks’ average defense. Doncic is the kind of star player who will one day be a contender, but this year doesn’t quite look like the right one for this group.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – LA Clippers
The LA Clippers should not only be a contender, but on paper, this team should be the title favorite. They are top-three in most team metrics, including first in many. They have a team bursting with experienced postseason players, including multiple players who started on title teams. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the best pairing of wings in the league. LeBron James and the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers have to play their way up from the bottom of the other bracket in the West.
Why then doesn’t this team feel like the overwhelming favorite? The biggest reason is that this same basic core flamed out last season, their wills broken by the Denver Nuggets. The ghosts of that loss are unlikely to have left this group, and the moment adversity strikes in the postseason it will resurface again.
This is a franchise that has never made it past the second round in fifty years of existence. While Leonard’s postseason record speaks for itself, George is battling a reputation as a playoff phony. Key rotation players in Reggie Jackson, Nic Batum and Rajon Rondo were effectively cast-offs by former teams, even if Rondo has proved his value as a flip-the-switch playoff player.
The Dallas Mavericks and likely the Utah Jazz will be their first two opponents, hardly an easy path out of the second round. Then the Conference Finals could be the defending champions, former Clipper Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns, or perhaps even the ultimate ghost in the Nuggets. The Clippers are capable of winning these series; they have the firepower. What no one can predict is the emotional element, and whether this team has what it takes to win 16 games.
Verdict: Contender – but not one to be confident in
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Denver Nuggets
Last season the Denver Nuggets took a large, shuffling step forward. Nikola Jokic showed how his brand of passing and scoring as a center translated to the postseason. Jamal Murray got hot as an outside shooter and shot-creator. Michael Porter Jr. grew into a reliable rotation piece, now a key starter.
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This season was not the hottest start for the team, but they found their stride and ended with the three seed. Jokic grew into the MVP favorite by increasing his scoring load, and Porter Jr. is one of the league’s rising offensive stars.
The problem? This team is playing the rest of this year and likely most of next year without Murray, who suffered a torn ACL. They also enter the playoffs with other members of their guard rotation recovering from various injuries. Last season was great, but they were also a shot away from not making it out of the first round.
Playing the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round means slowing down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, and it only gets harder from there. The Nuggets have chemistry, a superstar who improves everyone around him and last year’s postseason experience. They also have a weakness in the backcourt, defensive problems and play in a loaded conference. A healthy Murray might have meant a title; now it means one will be out of reach.
Verdict: Pretender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns have all of the boxes checked for a contender. Their top offensive option is a wing that plays alongside a wing with great defensive chops. They have size inside but an option to downsize if needed. They have a pair of stretch-4s unafraid to bomb from deep. Their point guard is a veteran who loves to distribute.
All of the boxes except one, that is. Only two of their starters have been to the playoffs in Chris Paul and Jae Crowder; Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges and DeAndre Ayton are all qualifying for the first time in their careers. Teams don’t win titles without some amount of playoff experience. Even young cores historically have made it to the postseason before leaping into title contention.
Yet the Suns have been so good this year, with the league’s second-best record. Can Paul’s experience be transferred to his teammates to some extent? While it wasn’t the playoffs per se, this team did go 8-0 in last year’s NBA Bubble, a culture-defining moment for the team.
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are the Suns’ first-round opponent and might mark this team’s biggest test. If they can beat the Lakers, the second round might be easier than the first. The Conference Finals might be as well. The lack of experience is a major red flag, but it isn’t a disqualifying one. The Suns get a chance to prove themselves.
Verdict: Contender
2021 NBA Playoffs: Contender or Pretender – Utah Jazz
Last season the Utah Jazz landed in the 4-5 matchup and lost a close first-round series to the Denver Nuggets. They bounced back by going 52-20 in a shortened season, with a +9.2 point differential. The Jazz are guaranteed home-court advantage in any series that they play.
Rudy Gobert has been the team’s most important player, lifting them to a top-5 defense despite starting no other elite defenders. He is vitally important on offense as well with how he manipulates defenses with his screening and rim runs. Donovan Mitchell is achieving reasonable efficiency at high volume. Mike Conley and Joe Ingles are the connective tissue every great team needs.
This group hasn’t won at the highest level, so it’s reasonable to expect them to struggle as the favorite. Their backcourt has limped to the finish line and may not be healthy to start the playoffs. Will their hot shooting from the regular season carry over? Will Gobert be marginalized against the toughest opponents?
The Jazz shouldn’t be overwhelming favorites, especially not in this season of chaos and a wide-open field. But they earned their top seed, and they have a head coach with a history of making adjustments if needed. This squad has the pieces in place to win it all; can they buck their own personal history and do that?
Verdict: Contender