The NBA stumbled upon one of the most intriguing innovations in its history last season when it came up with the play-in tournament. Effectively expanding the playoffs, last season it allowed for the ninth-seeded team to have a shot against the eighth seed to get into the traditional 16-team postseason.
In its first iteration, the ninth seed would have to win two games and the eighth seed would have to win just one. The Phoenix Suns put up an incredible effort to get in, but even their 8-0 record in the NBA bubble wasn’t enough. The eighth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers ultimately held off the ninth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies, winning the first and decisive game.
4 teams that could thrive in the NBA play-in tournament
This season the play-in tournament has been further expanded. Now, the seventh and eighth-placed teams will play each other one game for the right to be the seven-seed, with the losing team getting another chance in a third game. The ninth and 10th-placed teams will play for the right to be the third game against the loser of the seven vs eight game, while the loser is eliminated and goes directly into the NBA lottery.
The winner of the crucial third game between the loser of the seven vs eight game and the winner of the nine vs 10 game takes the eight seed.
If it sounds like a lot, well, it is. But it’s half a dozen games of high-leverage basketball, and after a bizarre season full of injuries, infections and postponed games, it’s going to be a welcome way to spend a few days of the NBA season.
Given the shortened nature of the play-in tournament, it’s easy to see how some teams with the capacity to get hot for a few games might have an edge. We’ll take a look at four teams in particular within the bottom range of the playoff standings that may thrive in this setting.
Team No. 1 that would thrive in the NBA play-in: Portland Trail Blazers
Any team with Damian Lillard on it can get hot enough to win a couple games against almost anybody, let alone against teams in the middle of the Western Conference. His incendiary performances might not be enough to win a series against LeBron James’s Los Angeles Lakers or Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant’s Golden State Warriors, but against the New Orleans Pelicans or Memphis Grizzlies? Yeah it’s enough.
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The Blazers have better depth this season than they have in season’s past, especially on the wings, thanks to the additions of Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr., and Lillard plus CJ McCollum could find themselves as play-in MVPs (if they have such a thing, which they should). The play-in format is tailor-made for this team.
Team No. 2 that would thrive in the NBA play-in tournament: Boston Celtics
If they find themselves seeded seventh or worse and play-in participants, the Boston Celtics would likely have the best player (or even two best players) in any matchup. Jayson Tatum has had a rough season at times, but his 53-point performance on Friday night was a solid reminder that he’s still one of the most talented young players in the NBA. That matters in a playoff series, and it matters in a short set of games like the NBA play-in tournament as well.
Teams like the New York Knicks and even the Chicago Bulls (if they can ever get things pulled together post-trade deadline) could put a scare into folks, but the Celtics will be inarguably the best of the crop in the Eastern Conference if they find themselves in the mix.
Team No. 3 that would thrive in the NBA play-in tournament: Dallas Mavericks
You can never count out the Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. One day, Doncic may be the consensus best player in the NBA, although we’re not there yet. The Mavs had a rough start to this season which may ultimately be the reason they find themselves in the play-in tournament, but they’ve surged over the past few months.
They were hindered by the quick start to the season, and damaged further by multiple COVID infections, but most of the band is back together. As a result, this squad has looked more like the team we expected them to be this season. That’s a tough out for anybody, let alone a team in the play-in tournament.
Team No. 4 that would thrive in the NBA play-in tournament: Golden State Warriors
It’s hard to have any faith in the championship aspirations of the Golden State Warriors. Sitting four games below .500 with a 24-28 record, they’ve proven incapable of capitalizing on the competitive window provided by Stephen Curry. To be fair, losing Klay Thompson on draft night was crippling, but it’s been disappointing to see them slide out of the top eight seeds and into the play-in realm.
Still, Steph Curry can power this team through a play-in style tournament. The name of the game in this format is winning one game, and then winning one more game. Lord knows how much help his teammates will provide him, but a hot Curry can absolutely get the Warriors these two wins.