As the NBA is set to begin its season on December 22nd, it’s time to update our training camp win totals for all 30 teams.
Editor’s note: These are our December 21st updated win totals, reflecting roster changes and preseason performances over the last few weeks.
It feels like the NBA was barely gone at this point. The NBA Finals were less than two months ago, and training camps around the league are about to begin the first stage of opening. In less than two weeks the preseason will begin, and in about three weeks, the NBA will begin the 2020-21 season for real.
If you blinked during the offseason (which began just a couple of weeks ago), you missed it. Amidst all the challenges of completing the 2019-20 season, we may find that completing the coming season could be even more difficult without the benefits of playing in a bubble during a pandemic.
While off the floor, the league will have a lot to figure out, the on-court product is what we’ll focus on here as we get started on Hoops Habit‘s 2020-21 season’s win totals for all 30 teams. In spite of the fact that only a few teams had cap space going into the offseason, there was plenty of movement around the league with players like Gordon Hayward and Chris Paul changing teams, and the landscape looks very different from what we saw last season.
We’ll go alphabetically and break down each team’s predicted win total and conference standing, and then we’ll overview each conference outlook with each team in standings order by their total number of wins. And remember, the NBA will be playing a 72-game season.
Without further ado, let’s get started on the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics.
Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 35 (-1)
Eastern Conference standings: 8th (no change)
The Atlanta Hawks are ready for a big come-up after acquiring Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic via sign-and-trades. Combine that with Trae Young’s continued development and the fact that the Hawks are feeling major pressure from ownership to win now, and you may find that while they harm their long-term outlook by getting too good too fast, they’re better this season than they may have been otherwise. Last season the Hawks only won 20 games, so this will be a big improvement for a young squad.
Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 40 (-5)
Eastern Conference standings: 6th (previously 3rd)
What changed: Kemba Walker’s absence has hurt and the Celtics struggled mightily to score in the preseason, even against lesser defensive squads. If he continues to miss extended time, the Celtics are going to have a hard time putting points on the board.
The Boston Celtics had a rough offseason, losing Gordon Hayward to the Charlotte Hornets for very little in return, but they have a historic trade exemption and signed Jeff Teague and Tristan Thompson. Not much more than a consolation prize, but it’s a consolation prize nonetheless. Even with some attrition thanks to the loss of Hayward, this is still going to be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference next season as Jayson Tatum will look to continue to make good on the five-year, $163 million max extension he signed this offseason.
Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 44 (+2)
Eastern Conference standings: 3rd (previously 4th)
What changed: Kevin Durant is back and looks as good as ever.
Other than re-signing Joe Harris to a four-year, $72 million contract, the Brooklyn Nets didn’t actually do much in the offseason. They were, however, the center of all the rumors focused on James Harden getting away from the Houston Rockets via trade. Much hinges on what actually comes of that noise, to the degree that some sportsbooks have the Nets’ win totals off the board. If the Nets trade for Harden, they might be the best team in the NBA. If they don’t, well, they’re probably one of the top 3-to-5 teams in the Eastern Conference.
Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 23 (-3)
Eastern Conference standings: 13th (previously 12th)
What changed: Gordon Hayward has been day-to-day with a fractured finger, and while he may be back in time for the season opener, he likely won’t be at full strength for some time.
The Charlotte Hornets thought they were going for it this offseason but really didn’t do much outside of short-circuiting their own rebuild. They signed Gordon Hayward to a ridiculous three-year, $120 million contract and had to waive and stretch the final year (worth $27 million) of Nicolas Batum’s equally ridiculous contract to do it. The Hornets have LaMelo Ball, and that’s nice, but Michael Jordan’s team won’t accomplish much by trying to be competitive this way. They think they’re going to be good, but they’re going to be pretty bad. And that makes everything about this so much worse.
Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 31 (-1)
Eastern Conference standings: 10th (previously 9th)
The Chicago Bulls had a quiet offseason from a personnel perspective, but they did have a successful offseason off the court. They swept out an ineffective front office led by John Paxson and Gar Foreman and replaced them with Arturas Karnisovas as executive vice president of basketball operations. Karnisovas then removed the embattled Jim Boylen from his position as head coach, replacing him with Billy Donovan. While just about anything is an improvement on Boylen, Donovan isn’t exactly an inspired choice, but the outlook for the Bulls should be better by default. They may also get the opportunity to participate in the Eastern Conference’s first play-in.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 22
Eastern Conference standings: 15th
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be one bad team next season. They were bad last season and lost Tristan Thompson to the Boston Celtics, but they did add JaVale McGee via trade and drafted Isaac Okoro. That was a puzzling choice, but at least they didn’t stack another rookie guard on top of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland this time around after what had been an annual NBA draft tradition. Anyway, the Cavs will be real bad.
Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 48
Western Conference standings: 2nd
So here’s the story about the Dallas Mavericks. They are certain to have one of the best offenses in the NBA (probably THE best), their defense will be better with the addition of Josh Richardson, and Luka Doncic will be one year older, wiser and more developed. In addition, the Mavs’ expected won-lost percentage last season was 65.3 percent (49-26 over a 75-game season), which is just shy of 48 wins in a 72-game season. They’ll miss Kristaps Porzingis over the first part of the season, but between internal development and some savvy trades, this team is going to be quite a bit better in 2020-21.
Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 43
Western Conference standings: 4th
While the Dallas Mavericks are a virtual certainty to improve even if they stood pat, the Denver Nuggets took a clear step back this offseason. They lost Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee in free agency, both of them going to the Detroit Pistons for substantial pay raises. The Nuggets were able to salvage things a bit by getting JaMychal Green on the cheap, and they were fortunate that R.J. Hampton fell to them in the NBA draft at 24. And of course, they have two young superstars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. However, while their rivals got better, the Nuggets got worse.
Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 21 (-2)
Eastern Conference standings: 15th
What changed: The Detroit Pistons are going to be one of the worst scoring teams in the NBA this season and very possibly the actual worst. That won’t cut it in this league.
If you were under the assumption that the Detroit Pistons jumped through all those hoops a couple of weeks ago in the hopes of being good this season, boy are you in for a surprise. They paid up for the backup frontcourt of the Denver Nuggets and then stretched and waived multiple players to be able to fit them in and they let their own exciting young player, Christian Wood, walk with very little struggle on their own part. On the plus side, they drafted Killian Hayes, and it’s ok to lose a lot while letting your rookies develop. And lose a lot, they shall.
Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 37 (-1)
Western Conference standings: 9th
The Golden State Warriors have perhaps the highest potential for variance of any team in the league. If Stephen Curry gets hurt again, the Warriors may not win a game without him. If he has another MVP-level season, Draymond Green decides to try, Andrew Wiggins cuts the mid-range and figures things out, James Wiseman ends up being a standout rookie and Kelly Oubre Jr. gets unlocked by his All-Star teammates, on the other hand, the Warriors may end up with homecourt advantage for a round or two in the playoffs. That’s probably the ceiling without Klay Thompson though.
Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 41 (+2)
Western Conference standings: 6th (previously 7th)
What changed: James Harden and Christian Wood looked real good together in the one preseason game they’ve both played. If Harden stays in Houston, there’s no reason the Rockets can’t remain competitive. If he leaves, we’re scrapping this whole win total project and starting over from scratch.
The Houston Rockets have had themselves an offseason, starting with the flight home from the Orlando bubble when head coach Mike D’Antoni told his team that as expected, he would not be returning next season. Shortly thereafter, longtime general manager Daryl Morey left, and then Russell Westbrook and James Harden had major concerns that led to trade considerations for both of them. Since then, new general manager Rafael Stone has had a nice run, topped off by adding Christian Wood on a team-friendly three-year, $41 million contract. Maybe the Rockets will move everything that isn’t bolted to the ground, but until then, a team with James Harden will always be a playoff team in the NBA.
Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 34 (-3)
Eastern Conference standings: 9th (previously 7th)
What changed: Thanks to an improved Washington Wizards squad, some teams that remained stagnant are going to pay the price. The Pacers are likely to be one of those teams.
The Indiana Pacers had a quiet offseason, aside from firing head coach Nate McMillan just days after he got an extension for leading his team to the NBA playoffs. It turns out that getting swept in the playoffs does occasionally have a deleterious effect on one’s employment. The Pacers hired Nate Bjorkgren away from the Toronto Raptors to be their next head coach, and it’s going to be interesting seeing how the Nick Nurse (and Dwane Casey) coaching tree performs in today’s NBA. The organization appears to be ready and willing to pull the trigger on a deal for Myles Turner, so we’ll see how that develops this season. Regardless, they should be a playoff team in the Eastern Conference.
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected wins: 50
Western Conference standings: 1st
The Los Angeles Lakers are the cream of the crop in the NBA’s best conference. They’re the defending champions and they have LeBron James and Anthony Davis (presumably; as of this writing he has still not re-signed with the Lakers). They poached Montrezl Harrell from the LA Clippers and Wesley Matthews from the Milwaukee Bucks, but they lost Avery Bradley to the Miami Heat in free agency. They also added Dennis Schroder and Marc Gasol this offseason. The Lakers are a team reloaded and ready to defend their title.
LA Clippers
Projected wins: 46
Western Conference standings: 3rd
The LA Clippers had quite an interesting offseason themselves. They lost Montrezl Harrell and Landry Shamet, but they acquired Serge Ibaka and Luke Kennard AND got the Detroit Pistons to throw four second-round picks into the deal as a sweetener. They also swapped out Doc Rivers at head coach for Ty Lue, and after Doc’s repeated playoff failures, it’s not hard to see that as a step up. What matters most is that the Clippers still have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and as always, they’ll go about as far as that duo can carry them in the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 29
Western Conference standings: 12th
The Memphis Grizzlies had a quiet offseason with a few marginal moves surrounding their biggest splash; re-signing De’Anthony Melton to a four-year, $35 million deal. Without internal progression from more than just Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, it’s going to be hard to see the Grizzlies outdo their ninth-place finish in the Western Conference last season. Of course, Justise Winslow might be a difference-maker, but we’ll see if he can actually stay healthy and play before we count on that.
Miami Heat
Projected wins: 41
Eastern Conference standings: 6th
Before Miami Heat fans jump down my throat for selling their team short so soon after going to the NBA Finals, regard that this is a team that finished with an expected W-L last season of 58.9 percent, a rate which over 72 games would work out to a 42-win pace. Considering the hot start the Heat got off to at the beginning of the season, which might be difficult to replicate, I think this is a fairly reasonable number for this team that is mostly returning its main contributors. If health doesn’t break right, maybe even fewer wins are in the cards.
Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 52
Eastern Conference standings: 1st
The Milwaukee Bucks had yet another outstanding regular season in 2019-20, only to flame out against the Miami Heat in the second round of the NBA playoffs. They’re going to have to do better in 2020-21, and they’ll need more from two-time defending MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. They will also need more from his new-look supporting cast, led by Jrue Holiday. The Bucks finally have a Big 3, comprised of Antetokounmpo, Holiday and Khris Middleton that can hang with just about anybody in the NBA, now they have to just go out there and do it.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 27
Western Conference standings: 14th
The Minnesota Timberwolves won the lottery, ending up with the first overall pick in the NBA draft, and they selected Anthony Edwards out of Georgia. They also did some wheeling and dealing via trades, bringing Ricky Rubio back into the fold. Alas, that’s not going to matter much in the end, because Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell simply don’t have enough help. This will be a multi-year project to get things turned around for Minnesota.
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 36 (+3)
Western Conference standings: 10th
What changed: The Pelicans had a nice preseason. It’s easy to see that talented squad’s efforts translating into more wins, although it probably won’t change their playoff forecast much.
The New Orleans Pelicans have had an overhaul of their own, replacing head coach Alvin Gentry with Stan Van Gundy. They also traded Jrue Holiday for a massive haul of draft picks and Eric Bledsoe, and they acquired Steven Adams from the OKC Thunder via trade. The Pelicans probably won’t win a whole lot more games, even though they will hopefully get a full season out of Zion Williamson, but they should be quite a bit more competitive. They also have a variety of directions they could go in trades, and those could bring down their expected win total a bit.
New York Knicks
Projected wins: 25
Eastern Conference: 13th
The New York Knicks should be in their familiar spot this season, at or near the basement of the Eastern Conference. They had a subtle and quiet offseason, but they avoided big splurge overpays when other bottom-feeding teams like the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons simply couldn’t help themselves. It may not be particularly exciting to behold, but there’s something to be said for being a bad team with some patience and vision.
OKC Thunder
Projected wins: 19 (-6)
Western Conference standings: 15th
What changed: 25 was too many wins for the Thunder in the first place. Let’s look at this as the correction of an overestimate, and this team deserves its chance at the worst record in the NBA.
Go ahead, name five players currently on the OKC Thunder roster, I dare you. It’s not easy these days after Sam Presti pushed the reboot button and shipped everybody out in exchange for (mostly) draft assets. The organization is ready for a rebuild, and with the historic war-chest of draft picks at their disposal, they should be able to pivot back into relevance almost at will. In the meantime, the Thunder are going to embrace a season of being bad on the court.
Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 30
Eastern Conference standings: 10th
The Orlando Magic wanted to do some big things in the NBA draft, including using Aaron Gordon to move up in the order, but nothing worked out for them. They didn’t really do much after that either, losing D.J. Augustin and Wesley Iwundu in free agency. The Magic are going to be without Jonathan Isaac for the entirety of the 2020-21 season, and they’re going to be relying almost wholly upon internal development from players like Markelle Fultz to drive any kind of improvement. Last season they won 33 games in a 73-game season, and a small dip in their win total is entirely reasonable to expect.
Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 46
Eastern Conference standings: 2nd
The Philadelphia 76ers were perhaps the most disappointing team in the NBA last season. A preseason championship contender, they limped to the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference en route to a bloodbath of a sweep at the hands of the Boston Celtics. This time around, they have a roster that makes sense, a fresh set of eyes in the form of head coach Doc Rivers and a bold and creative man at the top of the operation in Daryl Morey. The bones are there for a redemption campaign, they just need to get the job done.
Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 39 (-1)
Western Conference standings: 8th (previously 6th)
The Phoenix Suns really went for it this offseason. After coming up just short of the Western Conference play-in game following a perfect 8-0 run in the NBA bubble, they made the most of their momentum by trading for Chris Paul and signing Jae Crowder, Langston Galloway and E’Twaun Moore. By any measure, it was a successful offseason. It won’t propel them into title contention, but they might push for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs at the very least.
Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 40 (+4)
Western Conference standings: 7th (previously 9th)
What changed: Much like the adjustment to the Thunder’s win total, this change comes after more thought and performance from the Blazers themselves. 36 seemed on the low side, while 40 seems more in line with what a team like this should expect this season.
The Portland Trail Blazers did some nice work with limited assets, acquiring Robert Covington, Derrick Jones Jr., Enes Kanter and Harry Giles. Whether these players necessarily move the needle for their pursuit of the playoffs remains to be seen, but they probably don’t make the Blazers worse either. According to these projections, the Blazers will battle for a play-in spot, and in the ultra-tough Western Conference, that seems pretty fair. It’s not so much that they will fall off compared to last season (they have a better winning percentage at .500 this year!), but they aren’t keeping apace of the rest of the conference.
Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 30 (+2)
Western Conference standings: 12th (previously 13th)
The Sacramento Kings did not have a particularly inspiring offseason, outside of drafting Tyrese Haliburton 12th. That’s a move that they couldn’t have screwed up, at least. Time will tell just how much control new general manager Monte McNair has, or if owner Vivek Ranadive is forever pulling the strings. Anyway, beyond De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, there’s not much to be excited about with this team this season.
San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 31 (+1)
Western Conference standings: 11th
As the saying goes, all good things come to an end. Unfortunately for the San Antonio Spurs, at least in this iteration, their run of greatness has met just such a fate. They missed the playoffs last season for the first time in decades, and considering how stacked the Western Conference is, it’s going to be almost impossible for them to get back in next season. Of course, underestimate head coach Gregg Popovich at your own peril, but I don’t think this is an underestimation at all.
Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 42
Eastern Conference standings: 4th
The Toronto Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard last season and barely seemed to miss a step. They finished with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference and both Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam had breakout campaigns. Next season will be a challenge with both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka departed to various Los Angeles basketball clubs, but they were replaced in the frontcourt by Aron Baynes and Alex Len, so they’ll probably be just fine. They may dip a bit in the wins column, but they’re going to be 48 minutes of hell to face every single night once again.
Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 42 (+1)
Western Conference standings: 5th
The Utah Jazz blew a 3-1 lead in the first round of the NBA playoffs, and as we all know, that’s an unforgivable sin. They did this in spite of a truly ridiculous scoring performance from Donovan Mitchell in a losing effort. Next season, the Jazz expect to be healthy and refreshed after about three months off and they’ll be out for retribution. However, the Western Conference is absolutely loaded, the Dallas Mavericks are sure to be better and the Golden State Warriors are sure to tack on another 20 wins this season over last. Unfortunately for the Utah Jazz, those wins have to come from somewhere, and the Jazz didn’t improve enough relative to the field to maintain pace.
Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 36 (+8)
Eastern Conference standings: 7th (previously 11th)
What changed: Russell Westbrook is what changed. The Wizards have a roster that fits Westbrook’s style of play, and assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t have to miss many back-to-backs, he could have a wildly positive impact on players like Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans.
Other than paying up to keep Davis Bertans to the tune of five years and $80 million, and signing Robin Lopez, the Washington Wizards didn’t do much of note in the offseason. They’ll be interesting to watch mostly from the perspective of seeing what happens with John Wall and Bradley Beal, whether one or both are traded or retained, but on the floor? Probably not so interesting.
NBA win projections summary
Now that we’ve run through every team’s breakdown, win total and place in the standings, let’s take a look at the big picture of how this all looks for each conference.
Eastern Conference
1. Milwaukee Bucks: 52
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 46
3. Brooklyn Nets: 44 (+2)
4. Toronto Raptors: 42
5. Miami Heat: 41
6. Boston Celtics: 40 (-5)
7. Washington Wizards: 36 (+8)
8. Atlanta Hawks: 35 (-1)
9. Indiana Pacers: 34 (-3)
10. Chicago Bulls: 31 (-1)
11. Orlando Magic: 30
12. New York Knicks: 25
13. Charlotte Hornets: 23 (-3)
14. Cleveland Cavaliers: 22
15. Detroit Pistons: 21 (-2)
Western Conference
1. Los Angeles Lakers: 50
2. Dallas Mavericks: 48
3. LA Clippers: 46
4. Denver Nuggets: 43
5. Utah Jazz: 42 (+1)
6. Houston Rockets: 41 (+2)
7. Portland Trail Blazers: 40 (+4)
8. Phoenix Suns: 39 (-1)
9. Golden State Warriors: 37 (-1)
10. New Orleans Pelicans: 36 (+3)
11. San Antonio Spurs: 31 (+1)
12. Sacramento Kings: 30 (+2)
13. Memphis Grizzlies: 29
14. Minnesota Timberwolves: 27
15. OKC Thunder: 19 (-6)