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Denver Nuggets: Ranking potential first-round opponents

By James Siegle

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 16: Head Coach Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets looks on during the first half against the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center on January 16, 2020 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 16: Head Coach Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets looks on during the first half against the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center on January 16, 2020 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) /
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Denver Nuggets (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
Denver Nuggets (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) /

Dallas Mavericks:

Denver’s matchup desirability: 3rd

Regular Season Record to date: 1-2

Projected Probability to win series: Denver 55/45

Nikola Jokic vs. team: 19.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists per game

Jamal Murray vs. team: 18.3 points, 3.7 assists per game

Biggest Problem Players: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis

Now we’re approaching problem territory, as the Nuggets struggled with Dallas, finishing just 1-2 in these matchups. Luka Doncic has emerged as one of the NBA’s elite, averaging a monster 28.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game this season. Thanks to Doncic’s play, Dallas leads the NBA by a mile with a scorching 115.8 offensive rating.

Moreover, Jokic’s 19.0 points per game against Dallas is his lowest of the four possible opponents, as he’s appeared bothered by Kristaps Porzingis (2.1 blocks per game) and Maxi Kleber (1.2). Porzingis averages 19.2 points per game, so Jokic must also tend to him on the defensive end.

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There’s more than a little hope, however, as Dallas generally isn’t a great defensive team (110.0 defensive rating, 17th-best in NBA). Jokic is beefier than Porzingis and Kleber, so there’s a decent chance he solves Dallas’ shot-blockers, keeps them on his hip, and becomes a problem for the Mavs. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray has fared well in these games and could have a favorable matchup.

Another notable, the Nuggets held Doncic well below his average (22.3 points per game in three contests), and have a sturdy combination of on-ball and help-side defense to hassle him. Doncic will make his presence known, but Denver likely isn’t his first choice opponent.

Dallas is a sneaky-tough matchup for Denver, no question, and probably not an opponent the Nuggets want to target. However, Denver does have the tools to win the series if the standings break this way.

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