The Houston Rockets went all-in on small-ball, and it’s working well so far. Will rebounding, small-ball’s inherent weakness, come back to haunt them?
Once upon a time, basketball seemed like a simple game. Size and strength around the rim were the key to success and the Shaquille O’Neals of the world were devastating juggernauts. Over time the NBA has evolved, and the 2019-20 Houston Rockets are the newest manifestation of that evolution.
At this past trade deadline, the Rockets went all-in on this stage of basketball’s development, committing themselves fully to small-ball. With no rotational players over the height of 6’8″ and a 6’5″ de facto starting center in P.J. Tucker, the Rockets aren’t just the smallest team in the NBA, they may be the smallest team in the modern history of the league.
There are some clear positives to this style of play. Without a lumbering big to clog the lane, the Rockets can play five-out and maximize floor spacing. Using either Russell Westbrook or James Harden as a fulcrum for their offense, they can play a heliocentric style and surround their focal point with four shooters while whichever star who has the ball happens to be one of the most devastating offensive forces in the NBA.
You can’t do any of that with a center, outside of a handful of highly-skilled candidates. And none of those are anywhere close to available.
This has done wonders for the Houston Rockets’ offense. Since their experiment entered its final phase, trading for Robert Covington at the deadline, they have an impressive offensive rating of 115.5. That’s fourth in the league over this 10-game span and for comparison, the Dallas Mavericks have the best offensive rating in the NBA this season at 115.9.
They’re shooting at a blistering rate with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5 percent (placing them fifth) and a true shooting percentage of 60.3 (placing them third).
From a record perspective, they’re 7-3, a tick better than the winning percentage of 65 percent their 39-21 record so far this season yields.
We’ll take a look at the key components of this small-ball approach.
Russell Westbrook
At their highest level, the Houston Rockets need Russell Westbrook on the floor. He’s sitting out the back end of back-to-backs for much of the season, which of course won’t be an issue when the playoffs begin. Since the trade, he’s missed two games and the Rockets are 1-1 in his absence.
In what has been one of the greatest turnarounds of this season, the Rockets need Westbrook in order to function in their small-ball configuration. Over the last 10 games, when Westbrook is on the floor, the Houston Rockets have a solid defensive rating of 103.5 and an outstanding offensive rating of 114.9.
The Rockets create offense effectively with an effective field goal percentage of 56.6 percent and a true shooting percentage of 60.6 percent. They play at a breakneck pace, refusing to allow their opponents to get set up defensively in the half-court. Their 105.2 possessions per 48 minutes would be a fraction of a percentage behind the fastest team in the NBA on the season, the Milwaukee Bucks.
Strangely enough, the wheels fall off defensively when Russell Westbrook is off the floor. Over the 10-game stretch, the Rockets give up almost 10 more points when he’s off at 112.8, although the offense remains virtually unchanged at 114.9.
As perhaps the second-best rebounder now on the active roster behind Tucker, there’s a noticeable dip in rebounding when he’s off the floor. While their rebounding percentage of 45.8 percent is woeful when he’s on, it’s even worse at 43.9 percent when he’s off the floor.
It’s bizarre, but even though James Harden is this team’s MVP candidate, this small-ball revolution may have made Russell Westbrook its true most important player.
P.J. Tucker’s impact
As important as Russell Westbrook has been for the whole machine and the offense in particular, this whole small-ball party is over without P.J. Tucker. As the de facto center and most consistently solid defender, Westbrook may be the drink itself but Tucker is the straw that stirs it.
If we take a closer look at the on/off stats (thanks to stats.NBA.com and NBA Wowy) the Rockets are lost little birds on defense and the boards when Tucker is off the floor. When Tucker is on in the past 10 games, the Rockets are +12.6, and when he’s off, they’re -6.6. That’s a 19.2 point swing
Much like with Westbrook’s off splits, their defense is horrendous, giving up 112.5 points per 100 possessions. When Tucker is on the floor, their rebounding is almost acceptable with a rebounding percentage of 47 percent.
When he’s off, their rebounding percentage drops to a scarcely believable 41.7 percent. They collect only 20.1 percent of their own misses and have a defensive rebounding percentage of just 64 percent.
For context, the NBA’s worst rebounding team is the Washington Wizards, and they have a rebounding percentage of 47.6 percent. No team has a defensive rebounding percentage under 70.5 percent, and no team’s offensive rebounding percentage dips below 23.2 percent.
Needless to say, Tucker’s presence is absolutely essential to make this small-ball thing actually work.
Can it work when it matters?
In a make-or-miss league, nothing matters in the NBA unless it works. The modern era of pace and space would have meant nothing if teams like the Golden State Warriors didn’t adopt and dominate with it.
Similarly, this extreme small-ball style needs to run a gauntlet in order to be seen as anything more than a clever gimmick. LeBron James and the hulking Los Angeles Lakers lie in wait. Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers lurk beside them.
After so many near misses for James Harden, Mike D’Antoni and Darryl Morey, this season may end up being the defining moment for them and they reinvented the wheel in order to take advantage of the moment.
Unlike some teams who can make schematic changes and modify the way they deploy their personnel based on matchups (like the Milwaukee Bucks altering their strategy from drop coverage to a switching scheme), the Rockets have no plan B. If they’re getting outrebounded by a 2-1 factor (like they almost were by the New York Knicks earlier this week by a 65-34 margin) in the playoffs, there’s no “break glass in case of emergency” option.
However, they defend tenaciously. Their length makes up for size and they are so efficient on offense that the actual value of rebounding in general can be called into question. After all, if you defend like madmen and you are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, how much does it matter if you grab the few rebounds that present themselves?
Luckily for us, the wildly inventive Houston Rockets are going to find out just that this spring.