Analyzing potential San Antonio Spurs trades for LaMarcus Aldridge

Numerous teams are expected to inquire about trading for San Antonio Spurs star LaMarcus Aldridge. But how many of them actually make sense for both sides?

It’s passed the test of time, but there was once phrase fans often used to describe the NBA. Only three things in life are guaranteed: death, taxes and LeBron James in the NBA Finals. In counter, we could argue that there were three things that seemed almost guaranteed to never happen. Life, a tax-free world, and … the San Antonio Spurs heavily involved in trade rumors?  

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Let it sit on your mind for a second: can you remember any point in time in which any of the Spurs’ perennial All-Stars were subject to trade discussions in early December? And this time, it’s much more than clickbait. After dropping 14 of their first 22 games to open the season, the Spurs’ futility has officially become a mainstream topic of discussion.

All of the hype and hoopla surrounding the potential of a 23rd consecutive postseason appearance has to be silenced, at least temporarily. And the first pin to drop could come in the form of seven-time All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge.

Recent rumblings have offered that the Spurs could at some point finally have their eyes set on starting a rebuild and to do so, they would be forced to part ways with the player most responsible for ensuring that rebuild never came to be over the last three seasons.

The Spurs won’t be feeling the pressure until February’s trade deadline, but the discussion has already somewhat begun. HoopsHype columnist Frank Urbina reached out to numerous NBA executives in order to gauge a perception on Aldridge’s value. No spring chicken, Aldridge has played 33,420 minutes over the course of his career.

You don’t need a spreadsheet to understand that that’s a ton of mileage — only 103 players in the NBA’s existence have logged more — and it’s created the question as to how much NBA front offices are willing to give for the 34-year-old offensive juggernaut.

Taking into account the loss of a step here or there, Aldridge has generally been the same player he’s been throughout his prime.

He’s passing the ball at his best clip since 2012-13 in Portland, and he’s still averaging 18.9 points per game on the second-best true shooting percentage of his career, despite having his lowest usage percentage (23.3) since he was merely a skinny, unproven rookie from the University of Texas in 2006-07.

All of this correlates to one central idea: a Spurs rebuild means likely means moving Aldridge and over the past few weeks, roughly a half-dozen teams have emerged as potential suitors, be it to propel them into either postseason contention, or flat-out championship contention. The five-time All-NBA selection still has the offensive brilliance needed to turn that into a possibility.

With that in mind, here a couple of trade packages — some made personally, others made by those in-tune with executive thinking — followed by analysis on how they could materialize.

Potential trade No. 1: Denver Nuggets

The last time we saw a high-profile former Texas Longhorn migrate over to the team that defeated him in the previous season’s playoffs, the reaction was anything but amicable. But given everything involved here — the small markets, the laid-back assets and the competitive setting of today’s NBA — the gut feeling is that there’d be little to no backlash this time around.

Earliest reports offered that for the trade to work, the Denver Nuggets would have to part ways with multiple pieces from their talented second unit, namely journeyman center Mason Plumlee and 23-year-old former first-round pick Malik Beasley, in order to bring in Aldridge.

At first glance, this trade wouldn’t necessarily make sense. For starters, giving away their franchise cornerstone for two rotation players shouldn’t conceivably move the needle for the San Antonio Spurs. On Denver’s side, contractually, it goes against their tendencies.

The words “Stan Kroenke” and “paying the luxury tax” simply aren’t something we can feasibly expect to see in the same sentence. Remember, this is the same owner who allowed Masai Ujiri — the NBA’s Executive of the Year in 2012-13 and NBA champion six years later — walk for free, in fear of overpaying him.

This is also the same owner, who, despite consistently fielding one of the youngest rosters in the Association, owns one of just two NBA teams without an active G-League affiliate.

And no, it’s not a new development; even during the Carmelo Anthony era, Nuggets ownership showed minimal interest in paying the tax. For that aforementioned trade to work, the Nuggets would likely have to add in one more player. To line those salaries, the Nuggets could throw in Will Barton (a no-no at this point, since he’s been so solid).

Instead, how about Juan Hernangomez and Michael Porter Jr.?

Chances are, the potential caveat becomes: what happens to Denver’s bench after losing four rotational players? The fact is, they haven’t necessarily been as potent this season anyways; they rank as the No. 21 scoring second unit, and have experienced a minus-5.2 difference in their efficiency recap difference compared to last season.

Making this move would allow the Nuggets to create a clear-cut sixth man role for the ever-underrated Paul Millsap — a role he’s filled for 284 games in his career and helped generate a 111 offensive rating — while also putting him alongside Will Barton, Torrey Craig and Monte Morris, among others.

Per ESPN.com’s trade machine, the San Antonio Spurs would be decreasing their projected win total by seven games. But in a kitchen where there are too many cooks — in this case, guards — they get a chance to offset that with young forwards blossoming with potential.

In return, the Denver Nuggets would finally have a consistent, bonafide offensive weapon to run their offense through when Nikola Jokic has one of those games where he takes single-digit field goal attempts (something we’ve seen five times in just 18 games), or on nights where Jamal Murray is struggling to find net.

It would become probably the closest we’ve seen to that Chris Webber–Vlade Divac–Mike Bibby trio of the early 2000s.

Given where Aldridge is in his career now, he’s probably best served as a secondary or tertiary option. And in playing alongside arguably the NBA’s best passer, Aldridge could be due for the easiest looks of his life. Imagine a pick-your-poison play to this degree: could this not become a go-to staple in the Denver offense?

Stats to know:

• Only three teams in today’s NBA run more post-up action than the Denver Nuggets. In contrast, only seven teams average fewer points per possession than Denver’s 0.81. If the Nuggets want to continue making their back-to-basket game a staple, taking a chance on one of the best to ever do it could reap major benefits. Aldridge’s post-up numbers are down, but Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are the only players to generate more points out of the post-up. Aldridge’s 0.85 points per possession slots him right in that range of the elite. Think Karl-Anthony Towns and Kawhi Leonard (0.88) or Nikola Vucevic (0.86).
• In the HoopsHype article, one executive wondered how Aldridge could perform within a fast-paced offense. Surprise, surprise: in Denver, we’d never find out. The Denver Nuggets rank No. 27 in pace, which is more in-tune with what Aldridge operates best in. The Spurs ranked No. 28 and No. 22 over the last two seasons.
• A compound stat: the Nuggets have found tons of success through their two-big game with Jokic and either Plumlee or Millsap. A season ago, Jokic made a whopping 5,702 passes. About one-sixth (15.8 percent) of those passes were to frontcourt players. On those passes from Jokic, those players shot  a respectable 45.7 percent. With respects to Millsap, Hernangomez, Plumlee and Lyles, none are as proficient in catch-and-shoot as Aldridge, who ranks No. 6 among frontcourt players, and shoots at a higher clip (48.2) than anyone in his radius.

Potential Trade No. 2: Miami Heat

As reflected by the potential Denver Nuggets move, one fundamental question stands in the way: the brightest days in LaMarcus Aldridge’s career came at the “4” spot. But in today’s pace-and-space, small-ball era, can he take on the role as a star power forward?

Under the assumption that Aldridge is the next All-Star to take said talents to South Beach, he’d be sharing a frontcourt with Bam Adebayo — the switchable, do-it-all, Defensive Player of the Year candidate — which makes even the potential process all the more easy. Here’s a look at what the numbers offer, though.

There hasn’t been much of a stark difference between when Aldridge lines up at the “5” in small lineups versus when he goes to the “4” alongside Jakob Poeltl. Per Cleaning the Glass’ position stats, the San Antonio Spurs have performed as a 21-win team with Aldridge is a power forward. As SportsCenter’s Neil Everett and Stan Verrett would ask, “Is that bad?”

It’s not good.

At center, that win total “skyrockets” up to a 22-win team. On a positive note, Aldridge does produce an extra 4.5 points per possession and a 4.8 percent increase in effective field goal percentage a power forward. Take that with multiple grains of salt, though; only 11 percent of Aldridge’s 655 minutes have come at that position this season.

The regression to the mean comes on defense, where the Spurs have allowed 121.9 points per 100 possessions, compared to 115.9 when at power forward.

Aldridge’s foot speed and defensive motor to appear to have slowed, a common sign for players with as much mileage as he has. But, it’s not to a point where, figuratively speaking, the car is coughing, and you start to smell the black smoke. Part of that has to do with San Antonio’s spotty rotations. Additionally, Aldridge has never played with a big as defensively versatile as Adebayo.

For those laterally quick bigs, Aldridge would be granted the chance to play with someone capable of doing this on the regular.

https://twitter.com/Ballislife/status/1189340446008528896?s=09

With respects to them, it can be difficult to quarterback a defense with Patty Mills, Bryn Forbes and DeMar DeRozan on the court simultaneously. And you guessed it: that lineup accounts for most of what the Spurs do.

Together, they own a minus-4.8 net rating over a 37-minute stretch this season,  which feels surprising, since that same lineup owned a plus-8.8 net rating in 2018-19. But given this year’s start, can we positively say we’ll have time to watch that regress to its mean?

That’s a ton of numbers, so for good measure, here’s one more: there’s a 50 percent chance we just thought this over for no reason. Do the Miami Heat actually have enough assets to entice San Antonio to make a move?

It feels unlikely that the Heat would interfere with their immediate future, which would mean dealing the likes of Rookie of the Year candidates Kendrick Nunn or Tyler Herro, or the aforementioned Adebayo.

The Heat organization obviously has a way with words — just ask LeBron James and Chris Bosh. They’ll need to put those salesman skills to good use, should they assume the Spurs would be willing to take on a package that could include something to the tune of: Justise Winslow, Derrick Jones Jr., and a take-your-pick, sweet-shooting addition of either Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk.

For Miami, that’d absolutely be the selling point. Winslow has had his struggles with ball-dominance and lack of shooting from the outside. Still, he’s a versatile defender, and plugging him in hypothetically with Dejounte Murray and Derrick White could be a big step in San Antonio’s rebuild.

Miami can’t offer the perks of a first-round pick, per usual, they’ve dealt the majority of them off. But, if they force San Antonio to understand that 45-win seasons and first-round exits aren’t indicative of San Antonio, it could be what they need to make a move for another star.

Stats to know:

• Despite their penchant for hustle and grit, the Miami Heat sit among the cellar of the NBA in offensive rebounding (tied for No. 26 in the league). Since the statistics have been traded, Aldridge has been amid the elite individually. He’s ranked: No. 35 in 2013-14, No. 27 in 2014-15, No. 20 in 2015-16 and 2016-17, No. 5 in 2017-18, No. 12 in 2018-19, and No. 34 in 2019-20.
• The Heat sit in the middle of the league in terms of midrange shooting. Yet, only seven teams have been as inaccurate as them (36.2 percent). Assuming they aren’t ready to completely abandon that shot, a potential trade could give them the unofficial king of the”middy.” No player in the NBA makes (or attempts) more mid-range shots than Aldridge, and his 43.0 percent would rank fifth among teams.
• Miami hasn’t lost often, but when have, it’s been because they’ve lacked bonafide scoring against top-shelf teams (Denver, the L.A. Lakers, Houston, Philadelphia and Minnesota). In their losses, they’ve averaged 94.4 points, a stark difference from their usual 111.9. With respects to the likes of Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn — the secondary and tertiary scorers — it’s difficult to imagine a deep postseason run where they’re carrying the show on Jimmy Butler‘s off nights. Aldridge, a career 20.8-point, 8.5-rebound producer in the postseason, could be the answer.

Potential Trade No. 3: Portland Trail Blazers

Over the last four years, there’s been a gaping hole at power forward for the Portland Trail Blazers. The last time we measured that hole, it was 6-feet-11. If you catch my drift, I think I know a guy who fits it well.

Since LaMarcus Aldridge’s departure in 2014-15, the Blazers have had 14 different players take on the reins as power forward. This comes as no slight to either Ed Davis or Mason Plumlee, but if they’ve been the cream of that crop, a championship figures to be pretty distant.

Last season, the Blazers walked the walk: it wasn’t just that they advanced to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in nearly two decades. Over the course of that four-game series, the Blazers actually led in the series (101 total minutes) more than they trailed (83 minutes).

This year, they’ve talked the talk. C.J. McCollum declared it as title-or-bust, and while he couldn’t have forecast Portland having this much trouble with both injuries and chemistry, banking on everything clicking in February or March feels especially precarious in this year’s jam-packed Western Conference.

The resurgence of Carmelo Anthony has become a lifeline; the rest of the team has picked up on his vibe, and have performed as a 50-win team when he’s on the court. We’ve seen what a change of scenery and feeling wanted does for a player.

But with how wide-open the Western Conference is, can the Blazers be confident that this is enough? How much faith does Portland have in: a) Hassan Whiteside accepting a bench role when Jusuf Nurkić returns next year, b) a postseason rotation where Anthony Tolliver or Mario Hezonja are logging heavy minutes if Zach Collins‘ injury woes continue?

With that, comes a potential trade. Most reports suggest that Portland could offer a package of say, Hassan Whiteside, whose money stacks up well aside Aldridge’s ($27.1 million to $26 million). In July, Rip City Project’s Austin Carroll suggested that Portland could make a offer, simply centered around Kent Bazemore‘s expiring contract and talented Haitian center Skal Labissière.

The latter has become a revelation, with a solid touch and decent range to boot.

As he brought out, “the best defense is a great offense.” The idea of a Damian Lillard-McCollum-Anthony-Aldridge-Nurkic lineup is enough to have even the most ambitious of offensive talents licking their chops. But tell me this: say that lineup does give up 110-plus on a nightly basis. How many points are they scoring in return?

The Lakers and Clippers are obviously imposing. But the Blazers have found their match in Golden State in three of the last four postseasons. With that dragon down for the court for at least a year, would Portland want to sit here years later, expressing regret for not looking to stockpile star power, especially one that knows the culture and system?

If nothing else, the world just needs a little bit more of this. 

Stats to know:

• It’s easy to forget, given how short-lived it was. But, the duo of LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard generally ranked as one of the most potent in the NBA. Their two-man lineup net ratings over their three-year run: plus-1.6 in 2012-13, plus-9.1 in 2013-14, and plus-6.1 in 2014-15. A note on that 2013-14 season: you can count on two hands how many two-man combinations were better, but just barely. Among those to play at least 1,900 minutes, only six lineups had more success.
• An immediate synergy: only Luka Doncic and Trae Young run as many pick-and-roll ball-handler sets than Damian Lillard. Only Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Vucevic and Serge Ibaka run as many pick-and-roll man than LaMarcus Aldridge. We’re talking top of the class, Dean’s list type excellence here. On those rolls, Aldridge is hitting on 50.6 percent of his looks.
• Portland feels like a potential paradise for Aldridge: the Blazers run screen-and-roll at the second-highest frequency in the NBA, and rank among in the top-10 in post-ups and putbacks.

If only Aldridge had found out about this Portland team a few years ago. Oh, wait.

The best of the rest

So here’s what we know: the sky hasn’t fallen quite yet. Despite how creative they’ve gotten with their failures, the San Antonio Spurs are only 2.5 games out of eighth place in the Western Conference standings.

Even if things continue at this rate, the Spurs won’t be feeling any “pressure” to find potential suitors for LaMarcus Aldridge (or DeMar DeRozan, even) until February’s trade deadline.

Given what we know about the San Antonio Spurs organization, it feels safe to assume that if San Antonio bottoms out, they’d at least try to appeal to Aldridge’s requests — more than likely, a playoff-to-championship level team. The Spurs aren’t the type to allow a generous benignity to interfere with a rebuild, but shipping him to a postseason contender seems realistic.

For that reason, there were a couple of trades that didn’t quite make the cut.

• A potential trade to Sacramento

One idea executives have thrown around is that the Sacramento Kings, in search of their first postseason appearance since these were a thing, could try to bring on Aldridge via trade.

In the HoopsHype article, one executive pointed out that Aldridge could not only become an excellent mentor for former No. 2 pick Marvin Bagley, but also provide an upgrade over blossoming 26-year-old Richaun Holmes (if you ever get a chance, watch this guy. He’s the master of that scoop, pop-a-shot that you see at those movie theater arcade basketball machines).

So, um, if the Kings aren’t offering their two best bigs, do they think the Spurs are going to take something 20-cents-on-the-dollar?

It feels like the Kings are going to have to offer at least one or two of their core, and that likely includes Bogdan Bogdanovic, whose three-year contract at $9 million this season is going to balloon in next year’s market.

If Sacramento doesn’t feel they want to pay him, he seems like an easy trade piece to take on for San Antonio, if they trust that he’d sign back. A major risk, but that’s why it’s difficult to take this trade all the way serious.

• A potential trade to Boston

The vibe around the league is the Boston Celtics are knocking on the door to title contention. But, if they want to maximize their chances against the Goliaths in the Eastern Conference — think Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Myles Turner — the glaring need for a big who can go toe-to-toe with them is paramount.

As it stands right now, the Celtics only one have one active rotational player that stands over 6-foot-8 (Enes Kanter), and that feels problematic. The last thing Boston needs is a star coming in and stunting the growth of Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum, but if Boston thinks they can go into a Playoff series against these bigger lineups, it could get rocky.

Per NJ.com’s Todderick Hunt, Danny Ainge has already made a list of untouchables: Brown, Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart. And unless the Spurs are willing to entertain discussions centered around Robert Williams III or Daniel Theis, this is merely a brief discussion for now.