Denver Nuggets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s potential fit
By Max Carlin
NBA outlook
Outside of his jump-shooting, Gilgeous-Alexander is such a sublime offensive player, but my concern is that the rest of his game will always be punished by the shot. His utility as a pick-and-roll ball-handler? Diminished because defenders will always go under screens on him. His positional versatility as an off-ball player? Non-existent if the defense can ignore him.
The “if he develops a shot” trope is tired and typically incorrect. It’s a way we talk ourselves into the upside of athletic players who lack offensive polish. With Gilgeous-Alexander, I think it’s true.
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As is, Gilgeous-Alexander projects as a really useful backup point guard. In Denver, he’d be a worthy successor to Will Barton. He’d fit into Denver’s dribble-hand-off-heavy offense well, as receiving the ball with a step on his defender would mitigate his athletic limitations and allow his brilliance as a passer and finisher to shine. He’d even slot into three-guard lineups with Jamal Murray and Gary Harris, in which all five Nuggets could dribble, pass, and (sort of) shoot.
If Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot develops, especially off-the-dribble, he’s a borderline All-Star. If he adds enough mass to defend wings on top of that, he’s one of the most unique, versatile and valuable guards in the league.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a high-floor, high-ceiling player. The catch is that he’s overwhelmingly likely to top out near his floor. Shooting, for a lead guard, is too important, and the threat of the pull-up, which he’ll need in order to hit his ceiling, is something you either have or you don’t.
A high-floor, high-ceiling player is always valuable, though, regardless of where his expected outcome lies. That’s especially true for a Nuggets team that lacks financial flexibility and will likely be too good in the coming years to add significant talent in the draft.
Gilgeous-Alexander, therefore, should receive serious consideration from the Nuggets at No. 14 if he’s still on the board. He’d almost certainly be an essential addition to their long-term point guard depth, and there’s an off chance he’d be a transformative piece.
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