Heading into the 2018 NBA Playoffs, who’s hot and who has the best chance of winning a championship? To sort it out, we’re power ranking all 16 playoff teams.
After a hectic, memorable and thoroughly entertaining regular season, the field is set for the 2018 NBA Playoffs.
The Houston Rockets lead the pack with a franchise-record 65 wins, while the Toronto Raptors also posted a franchise-record 59 wins to climb atop the East. With the Golden State Warriors missing Stephen Curry and the Cleveland Cavaliers’ defense being such a problem, this year’s postseason feels nowhere near as straightforward as in years past.
Can the Rockets cap off their exceptional season with a title? Will the Dubs recapture their winning form? Can the red-hot Philadelphia 76ers make a stunning postseason run? Are the Cavs about to flip the switch in customary fashion? Will the Raptors finally exorcise those playoff demons? Are the Boston Celtics, Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers being overlooked? And which lower seed has the best odds at a first round upset? There are dozens of questions waiting to be answered.
For 26 weeks of regular season action, we filled out weekly NBA Power Rankings to figure out the lay of the land. With only 16 playoff teams remaining and the first batch of games scheduled to tip off on Saturday, it’s time to do the same for the postseason.
Unlike the regular season, however, another question needs to be added in with the normal factors like team record, recent success, injuries, advanced stats and everything else that goes into power rankings. This time around, we need to also ask ourselves, “What are this team’s realistic chances of winning a championship based on where they’re seeded?”
Factoring in potential playoff matchups, the odds of making a legitimate title run and all the normal variables in NBA Power Rankings, it’s time to rank all 16 playoff teams from No. 16 to No. 1.
16. Washington Wizards
It’s probably not surprising to see the 8-seed in the worst conference here at No. 16, but that’s especially true for a Washington Wizards team that’s lost seven of its last 10 games coming into the postseason. John Wall‘s return hasn’t galvanized the team as expected, and the Wizards had been sputtering on Bradley Beal fumes for weeks without their All-Star point guard anyway.
Aside from having to face the 1-seeded Toronto Raptors at the Air Canada Centre, where they’re tied for a league-best home record of 34-7, the Wizards barely just got Wall back seven games ago and have struggled to reintegrate him.
A Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan backcourt showdown with Wall and Beal sounds fun on paper, but this Wizards team looks out of sorts at the wrong time of year. Even if the Raptors completely fell apart in their annual playoff tradition, Washington would then face either LeBron James or a tough Indiana Pacers team. Better luck next season.
15. Miami Heat
The Miami Heat may have snagged the 6-seed on the last night of the season, but their reward for securing a better playoff spot in the East is facing the the Philadelphia 76ers, the NBA’s hottest team that’s won 16 straight games.
Miami is 5-5 over its last 10 games, and for all its rotational versatility, crunch-time issues have become a recurring problem now that Erik Spoelstra has completely turned the late-game offense over to Dwyane Wade. A healthy Joel Embiid vs. Hassan Whiteside matchup could be fun, but the Sixers have the edge there, and even if Embiid isn’t healthy, Miami could get run off the floor by Philly’s small-ball lineups considering how little it uses Whiteside in fourth quarters.
The Heat have experience on their side, so they’ve got a puncher’s chance at a first round upset if the 76ers’ young guns balk under the bright lights, but they’re clearly outmatched from a talent perspective. That 20th-ranked offense will have a hard time scoring on Philadelphia’s third-ranked defense, especially with the fewest road wins among any Eastern Conference playoff team.
14. San Antonio Spurs
Out of all the possible first round opponents the Golden State Warriors could’ve gotten, the San Antonio Spurs might be the least threatening. That’s not meant to insult LaMarcus Aldridge, Gregg Popovich, or the Spurs’ 21st straight playoff berth despite missing Kawhi Leonard for all but nine games this season. Accomplishing such a feat really is remarkable.
Unfortunately, even with the Dubs looking all kinds of vulnerable right now, outside of Aldridge, San Antonio just doesn’t have the horses in this series, even with Stephen Curry sidelined. Stars win playoff games more often than not, and the Warriors still have three of them to fall back on.
The Spurs’ fourth-ranked defense could make things interesting, especially if KD and company come out as flat and uninspired as they have over the last few weeks. Even then, it’s not like San Antonio has been firing all cylinders lately either, entering the playoffs with a 5-5 record over the last 10 games.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Ending the NBA’s longest active postseason drought of 13 years on the last game of the regular season couldn’t have been scripted any better for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who shouldn’t be written off by anyone with a healthy Jimmy Butler on the floor.
However, even though Jimmy Buckets’ absence played a big part in Minnesota’s miserable 108.4 defensive rating, that mark ranked 23rd in the league and was the worst among all 16 playoff teams outside of Cleveland. What do you think the Houston Rockets, the NBA’s best team and one of the five most prolific offenses in NBA history, are going to do to that defense?
If the Wolves had been able to climb to No. 7 or No. 6 on this list, they would’ve ranked much higher. After all, no one should forget this team was knocking on the door for the 3-seed before Butler got hurt. Unfortunately, matchups matter in these rankings, and the Timberwolves — who have the worst road record among all 16 playoff teams and are facing the team tied for the best home record in the league — drew the toughest one possible. Welcome back to the postseason!
12. Milwaukee Bucks
Aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo and maybe Khris Middleton, the Milwaukee Bucks‘ roster is littered with players where the idea of said player is better than the actual player. Guys like Eric Bledsoe and Jabari Parker have shown serious flashes over the last few weeks, but this team is too inconsistent to trust.
Everyone’s been eyeballing the Boston Celtics as the weakest link in the East’s top four, but doubt Brad Stevens and his resilient bunch at your own peril. The Greek Freak will be the best player in this series, which can always tip the odds in your favor when you’ve got a guy who averaged 26.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks per game on 52.9 percent shooting.
However, Boston’s league-leading defense is stifling, and guys like Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris have stepped up to fill the void left by injuries to Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart. Giannis will need to have the series of his life and get plenty of help for this Bucks team to have a legitimate chance of reaching the second round.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder
On paper, the Oklahoma City Thunder are a top-10 defensive team with a star-studded Big 3 and a guy who just became the first player in NBA history to average a triple-double in two seasons. If only this team’s “on paper” strengths couldn’t also be used to write them off as a non-threat out West.
Not only are they facing a Utah Jazz side that’s won 29 of its last 36 games and has a superior point differential, but they just haven’t figured out how to keep both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony engaged on offense when Russell Westbrook dominates games. There’s still a “your turn, my turn” feel to the offense that Thunder fans were hoping they’d stop seeing by January.
Oklahoma City’s bread and butter was defense, but the bread has gone moldy and it turns out the butter was really just margarine ever since Andre Roberson went down. The Thunder’s defensive rating dropped from 103.1 (fifth in the NBA) with him on the court to 107.0 (15th) after his season-ending injury. Against the streaking and more cohesive Jazz, home-court advantage may not be enough for a collection of talented individuals.
10. Boston Celtics
This may seem insultingly low for the No. 2 in the East that won 55 games mainly by doing what everyone’s doubting them for now — using depth and capable role players to overcoming a plethora of injuries to pretty much every single notable starter and bench piece. You can’t count out the league’s best defense, and this team should still be favored in the first round.
Still, we can’t act like the Boston Celtics aren’t the most vulnerable top seed in the East, especially if Giannis Antetokounmpo transforms into the Greek god of basketball and long limbs (a definite possibility). The Bucks’ inconsistency means Boston has a good chance of avoiding a first round upset, but the journey will most likely end in the conference semis against a red-hot Sixers side.
What can we say? Without Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis, this isn’t the same team on either end of the floor, no matter how guys like Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris and Greg Monroe have stepped up. Next year, with Kyrie and Gordon Hayward hopefully healthy, then it’ll be time to talk about the Celtics as more than a difficult out.
9. New Orleans Pelicans
The Portland Trail Blazers didn’t exactly close out the 2017-18 season on the strongest note, which gives the New Orleans Pelicans a fighting chance in this series if Anthony Davis is the best player on the floor. No disrespect to Damian Lillard, but given how hungry AD has been to return to the postseason and how he dominated in his first playoff series, we’re almost counting on it.
However, the rest of the supporting cast also has to keep up the job it’s done over the last few months. The Brow’s stat line of 30.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 2.2 assists and 2.1 steals per game since DeMarcus Cousins went down is the biggest reasons the Pellies are 21-12 in that time, but guys like Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic, E’Twaun Moore, Darius Miller and Ian Clark have to continue hitting 3s and defending hard.
Rip City is still probably the better team, but with Maurice Harkless out and Ed Davis just coming back from injury two games ago, it’ll have a hard time slowing down the league’s premier Unicorn. In a battle of MVP candidates, if AD’s supporting cast steps up and Holiday has a great series, don’t sleep on NOLA.
8. Indiana Pacers
Maybe LeBron James sweeps his way through the first round again because he’s LeBron James, but something tells us this first round series between the Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers might be different. This team is no pushover, even if that’s exactly what the Pacers were expected to be entering the season.
Forget about the feel-good storylines about Victor Oladipo‘s Indiana homecoming or giving critics of the Paul George trade the middle finger, because this team is good outside of narrative too. Oladipo has become the legitimate two-way star most were expecting when he first entered the league, Domantas Sabonis is a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate and Myles Turner has enough talent to be on the radar for a breakout series after struggling last year.
Matching up with the King of the East limits how high we could rank this team. There’s a chance LeBron sends the Pacers home in the playoffs yet again. But considering Cleveland’s porous defense and Indiana’s 3-1 record against the Cavs this season, this could be one of the best first round series in the 2018 NBA Playoffs.
7. Portland Trail Blazers
We’re sure Rip City fans are sick and tired of people doubting Damian Lillard and his Portland Trail Blazers, who unexpectedly surged away from what looked like another .500 season and into the 3-seed in the West. Dame’s annual Post-All-Star Break Revenge Tour is always fun, but the Blazers went on a 27-12 tear to close the season and move up the Western Conference standings.
However, Portland isn’t entering the playoffs on the hottest of streaks, dropping five of their last eight games, including an 0-4 road trip that nearly put the 3-seed in jeopardy. With Maurice Harkless out and Ed Davis sidelined, this has looked like a slightly different team.
If C.J. McCollum continues to struggle as he did in April, during which time his shooting shriveled up to ghastly .360/.242/.824 splits, the Blazers could be in trouble. They’re still the better team, but they don’t have anyone who can hang with AD, and his ability to spread the floor on that end when paired with a stretch-4 like Nikola Mirotic will make life difficult for Jusuf Nurkic. Maybe Porland will shift out of cruise control, but consider this is a precautionary warning.
6. Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors are ranked insultingly low for a team with the best record in the East, not to mention the NBA’s second-best record, second-best point differential, third-best offense and fifth-best defense. They’re the only team to rank in the top-five for both offensive and defensive rating, they’re fully healthy and they’re tied for the league’s best home record at 34-7.
Considering they’ll have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, how vulnerable Boston looks and how human Cleveland looks, what gives? Well, you know damn well what: DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and the Raptors in general are notorious for collapsing in the playoffs.
You’d think a trip to the conference finals in 2016 would’ve exorcised those playoff demons, but the truth is, it was more like extra exercise for those demons with how weak the East was. Toronto won’t be able to cruise through two rounds with those same kinds of struggles. We The North has the easiest first round matchup in the East, but it’ll be rewarded with, most likely, another showdown with LeBron in the next round. If the Finals are the goal, it’s time to put up or shut up.
5. Golden State Warriors
This low ranking could feel stupid in a few months if the Golden State Warriors flip the switch, get a healthy Stephen Curry back and cruise to their third title in four years. With that being said, there’s also a chance the listless Dubs are in real danger before Curry ever gets back, and we all remember what happened in 2016 when Curry had to join the playoffs halfway through the second round while coming off an MCL sprain.
No one will pity the Warriors; not only because the haters are sick of this team, but because this is the exact reason they signed KD in the first place. With Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green on the floor, Golden State should still handle the first round with relative ease. However, the overachieving Spurs will make them work for every win, and with effort being such a problem lately, nothing is guaranteed. This team is a very pedestrian 17-14 without Steph, after all.
After the first round, the Dubs will hope Curry is back to 100 percent, because they’ll have a date with either Damian Lillard’s dangerous Blazers or Peak Anthony Davis waiting for them. And that’s to say nothing of the mighty Houston Rockets in the conference finals, let alone yet another challenger in the Finals. The prospect of Golden State winning — let alone cruising to– another title feels a lot dicier now than anyone ever could’ve predicted before the season began.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers are impossible to place. Are they the no-brainer favorite in the East because of LeBron James, the holes in every other contender’s case, the presence of a healthy Kevin Love and the fact that they’re 11-3 over their last 14 games with a scorched-earth offense in that span? Or are they the most vulnerable court the King has held in years thanks to a lackluster supporting cast and the NBA’s 29th-ranked defense?
As always, the first rule of thumb is to not doubt LeBron James in the playoffs. He’s having one of the best years of his 15-year career at age 33, he’s in as good of shape as he’s ever been in and he looks as unstoppable on offense as he ever has.
However, the defensive effort has to pick up in the playoffs, or this team is going to meet an unfortunate end ahead of the King’s upcoming free agency. The new arrivals in George Hill, Larry Nance Jr. and Rodney Hood have to deliver the goods, Jose Calderon can’t be exploited and Love has to be able to hold down the fort at the 5. The Cavs are as mortal as ever despite LeBron’s brilliance, but gun to my head … it’s still damn hard to pick against James in a seven-game series.
3. Utah Jazz
Forget about that bellyflop in Portland on the final night of the season with the 3-seed on the line. The Utah Jazz may not have home-court advantage on their side, but they’re playing as well as just about anyone entering the playoffs, winning 29 of their last 35 games.
Donovan Mitchell is a legitimate force on the offensive end. The Jazz have gone 30-8 since Rudy Gobert returned to the lineup, bolstering the defense to the league’s best in that span by a massive margin of 3.6 points per 100 possessions compared to the next-closest team. Ricky Rubio and Joe Ingles remain underrated pieces of Quin Snyder’s mastermind, 1,000-piece puzzle. Jae Crowder and Jonas Jerebko are doing work off the bench. Dante Exum is back.
The list goes on and on, but aside from the Rockets, the Jazz are the team to be most feared in the West right now. We’ll see how the younger players hold up under the bright lights of the postseason, but at the moment, Utah enters the first round with a ton of momentum and cohesion. This is one of the few teams that might not be scared of a head-to-head matchup with Houston should it advance.
2. Philadelphia 76ers
It’s tempting to be a prisoner of the moment with the Philadelphia 76ers on a 16-game winning streak and The Process finally taking shape, but this ranking is not just about that. This team deserves its due for winning 52 games, passing Cleveland for the 3-seed in the East and posting the conference’s second-best point differential — all while missing Joel Embiid for the last eight games.
Ben Simmons is a phenom and yes, the favorite for Rookie of the Year with the way he dominates both ends of the floor, facilitates the offense and manages the game without a jump shot to speak of. J.J. Redick is having a career year, Dario Saric stays flying under the radar and veterans like Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova have breathed life into the bench.
Embiid is a two-way force, Markelle Fultz is healthy and contributing, and the Sixers have clamped down defensively, ranking third in the league in defensive rating. Facing a good but not great Miami team in the first round, followed by either the vulnerable Celtics or inconsistent Bucks in the next round, a run to the conference finals — or maybe even the Finals — isn’t out of the question. The biggest obstacle in Philly’s way might be the inexperience of its two best players.
1. Houston Rockets
Luc Mbah a Moute‘s shoulder injury took a little bit of wind out of the Houston Rockets‘ sails, but they won’t need him in the first round. In fact, with as dynamic as their offense is, and as respectable as their defense is, they may not need him until the conference finals.
In any case, the Rockets are touting the league’s best record (65-17), point differential (+8.5), second-best offensive rating (112.2), most made 3-pointers and sixth-ranked defense (103.8). They’ve got the likely 2017-18 NBA MVP, not to mention the other best point guard in the league, Chris Paul, and a Sixth Man of the Year candidate in Eric Gordon.
P.J. Tucker can fill the 3-and-D role Mbah a Moute serves. Clint Capela is one of the most improved players in the league and a perfect lob threat as the team’s rim-runner out of pick-and-rolls. Mike D’Antoni‘s offense has been unstoppable and the Rockets own the league’s best home and road records. Houston is also an astonishing 42-3 when its Big 3 suits up together.
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With the Warriors and Celtics banged up, the Cavs’ defense being what it is, the Raptors’ penchant for falling apart and the Sixers’ inexperience, the Rockets’ biggest threat to winning their first title since 1995 might be the Jazz in the second round. It’s time for James Harden to cap off the finest season of his career with a title, silencing his — and CP3’s — playoff critics once and for all.