2018 NBA free agency will be here before you know it, so predicting where the top available talents will land seems like a sensible exercise at this point in the season.
Believe it or not, 2018 NBA free agency will be here before you know it.
As more and more teams are eliminated from playoff contention, the conversation will subtly start to shift to the offseason. Fourteen teams will soon cease playing basketball, meaning all of those teams’ fans will be forced to speculate on the upcoming draft and free agency.
In the spirit of that statement, I’ve decided to take a look at who I believe are the 15 best players set to be free agents in 2018. However, it’s a little more than that. I’m also going to predict where they’ll sign when they hit the open market come July 1.
Be forewarned, though. There are plenty of big names set to become available in a few months. The problem is that, in today’s current salary cap climate, only so many NBA franchises have the financial flexibility to afford high-priced contracts. Years of poor decisions and overpriced contracts have come back to haunt most of the league — only one team currently has more than $10 million to spend this offseason, according to Spotrac.com.
As a result, many of these predictions will end up being of the “re-signing” variety. I know it’s boring, but it’s the realistic approach for many of these pending free agents.
So now that we’ve got that disclaimer out of the way, let’s take a look at my predictions for where the Top 15 players of 2018 NBA free agency will sign. There’s a very good chance at least a few of these are off the mark, but you never know in the wacky world that is professional basketball.
15. Tyreke Evans, SG, Memphis Grizzlies (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: Boston Celtics
There’s at least a decent chance the Boston Celtics move on from Marcus Smart this offseason. He’s a restricted free agent, but will likely demand more on the open market than the Celtics are willing to pay. Assuming he leaves, a new combo guard will be needed.
Hence, the prediction that Tyreke Evans lands in Boston this offseason. It won’t do much for his fantasy outlook being grouped with so many other top-notch playmakers, but it puts him on a winning team that’ll know how to take advantage of his talents. At this point in his career, can Evans really ask for much more?
The Celtics showed interest in Evans leading up to the 2018 trade deadline (via Boston Globe’s Steve Bulpett), so there’s clearly a connection there. Although he’s due a significant raise on the $3.3 million he’s making with the Memphis Grizzlies this year, Boston shouldn’t have too much trouble creating cap space for the veteran guard.
In this situation, the rich get richer. The Celtics are already loaded with talent in the backcourt and on the wing. By signing Evans, they ensure continued Eastern Conference dominance.
14. Zach LaVine, SG, Chicago Bulls (Restricted)
Where he will sign: Chicago Bulls
Like many other teams with restricted free agents this offseason, the Chicago Bulls face a difficult decision in determining Zach LaVine’s future.
On one hand, they’ve got a human highlight reel who was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves. On the other hand, they’ve got a one-dimensional talent with significant injury concerns. Do they dish out the money needed to re-sign him if another team is brave enough to throw a lucrative offer sheet at LaVine?
I’m going to say yes. They need to begin this rebuild somewhere, and LaVine is a good starting point. He’s not the superstar that’s going to get Chicago back to “contender” status, but he’s got enough juice to get the Bulls going in the right direction. Especially with Lauri Markkanen‘s current trajectory, there’s some semblance of hope in this franchise’s future.
LaVine has more growing to do, but has the makings of an outstanding talent. While I don’t think he’s quite lived up to expectations since returning from injury, the Bulls aren’t going to give up on him that easily. He’ll be back in the Windy city next season.
13. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: Indiana Pacers
I’m sure the Los Angeles Lakers would love to bring Isaiah Thomas back. However, as he recently stated, he’s not interested in being a backup (via USA Today‘s Sam Amick). If he stays with the Lake Show, that’s pretty much what he’s going to be with Lonzo Ball demanding minutes.
It makes sense for Thomas to want to be a starter. He’s a two-time All-Star and one of the league’s truly inspiring stories of overcoming adversity. While his short stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers was an unmitigated disaster, there’s no denying the diminutive point guard has the talent to start for almost any NBA team.
That’s why the Indiana Pacers go out and spend the money necessary to secure a legitimate starting point guard. That’s not to say Darren Collison isn’t capable of getting the job done, but teaming Thomas with Victor Oladipo sounds like too tempting of an opportunity to pass up.
Only $2 million of Collison’s $10 million for 2018-19 is guaranteed, so the Pacers can get out without too much trouble. This is also assuming Thaddeus Young opts out of the $13 million he’s due next year, which would give them enough flexibility to sign Thomas to a lucrative deal. I wouldn’t go as far as a max contract, but he’ll be paid handsomely.
Not many people expected the Pacers to be as good as they’ve been this season. Imagine what they could do with one of the most dangerous backcourt duos in the league in 2018-19.
12. Carmelo Anthony, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Oklahoma City Thunder
Don’t get me wrong here. There’s a very good chance that Carmelo Anthony does not want to live in Oklahoma City anymore. If he were still the player he was a few years ago, he’d have just about every team after him this offseason.
Unfortunately for him, that’s no longer the case. In the last couple of years, Anthony has lost his luster a bit. While that’s not to say he isn’t scorer still, we’ve seen in 2017-18 that he’s clearly the No. 3 option for the Thunder. That leads me to believe he could be forced to take much less than the max if he hits free agency.
So instead of risking that, Anthony simply opts in with Oklahoma City for 2018-19. That’ll pay him $27.9 million — an excellent payday for a 33-year-old scoring machine who seems to be on a slow-but-steady decline.
This way, Carmelo continues to rake it in, doesn’t have to fret with free agency, and gets to continue playing alongside one of the best players in the world (Russell Westbrook). Even if Paul George doesn’t return, Anthony will know he can at least stay competitive in the West with Brodie locked in long-term with the Thunder.
11. Julius Randle, PF, Los Angeles Lakers (Restricted)
Where he will sign: Los Angeles Lakers
Heading into the 2017-18 campaign, it seemed like Julius Randle was as good as gone. There were talks of his impending departure throughout the first half of the season, leading many to speculate that he’d be dealt before the February trade deadline.
Well that never happened. Instead, as the season went along, Randle got better and better. Soon, he wasn’t just a one-dimensional power forward with limited range — he was the heart and soul of the Lakers lineup. When they needed a big-time play or an injection of energy in a close game, Randle kept delivering.
Right now, the Lakers are getting it done. They may not make the playoffs, but they’ve looked like one of the better teams in the league since the All-Star break. Their young players are developing at a rapid pace, and it’s starting to look like they may not be as far off from playoff contention as some may assume.
If they can keep the key pieces in place and add one superstar this offseason, it may be enough to bump them into the upper half of the Western Conference. So instead of overspending on a free agent, they re-sign Randle, choosing continuity and chemistry over two shiny new stars.
10. Jabari Parker, SF, Milwaukee Bucks (Restricted)
Where he will sign: Chicago Bulls
After the departure of Jimmy Butler this offseason, the Chicago Bulls’ current roster lacks any significant star power. You can try to say that LaVine is the new go-to threat, but he missed the first half of the season and does have his limitations.
The Bulls could try solve that problem during the 2018 NBA Draft, but they may be better off targeting a proven playmaker. While there are some obvious concerns about Jabari Parker and his fragile knees, there’s no denying the kid is special when healthy and on top of his game.
There’s the small issue of the Milwaukee Bucks, who can match any offer Parker receives. However, they aren’t exactly strapped for cash (currently $6.5 million over the cap for 2018-19, according to Spotrac.com), and are already overpaying for players like Matthew Dellavedova and John Henson. Is Parker really worth dishing out a max contract for?
Some would say yes, but difficult decisions must be made. The Bucks would love to keep Parker, but decide a max contract is too rich for their taste. The former No. 2 overall pick gets to join his hometown team, beginning a new era for the Bulls.
9. Aaron Gordon, PF, Orlando Magic (Restricted)
Where he will sign: Phoenix Suns
Honestly, I don’t think the Orlando Magic are heavily invested in keeping Aaron Gordon. The only thing they’re interested in right now is getting something in return for him instead of simply letting him walk via restricted free agency.
So the Phoenix Suns come to them with something like this: Marquess Chriss, T.J. Warren and one of their later first round picks for Gordon, via sign-and-trade. The Suns have three first round picks, so letting go of one that’s outside of the top three isn’t horrible. They unload the underwhelming Chriss and say goodbye to Warren. In return, they get a rising star in Gordon.
It’s unfortunate for the Magic, but they’re clearly in rebuild mode anyway. They get some intriguing (and inexpensive) pieces to work with, and bolster their draft assets as well. Most importantly, they get something in return for Gordon.
The former Arizona Wildcat goes back to his old stomping grounds. Suns fans rejoice as the additions of Gordon and a top three prospect mean this team has some semblance of a future. Devin Booker now has an uber-athletic power forward to take some of the pressure off his shoulders.
Sounds like a good plan to me.
8. Clint Capela, C, Houston Rockets (Restricted)
Where he will sign: Houston Rockets
Unless the Rockets make some ridiculous push for a superstar like LeBron this offseason, I don’t see any way they give up on Clint Capela. They may not like the costs that come with keeping him, but he’s too instrumental to this lineup to be tossed aside.
Every year it seems the Swiss center gets better. Right now, he’s proving to be one of the most underappreciated bigs in the league, using his tenacity, basketball I.Q. and surprising strength to dominate the boards and give his duo of dynamic guards an exciting weapon to work with in the pick-and-roll game.
Do the Rockets really want to mess that up? Sure, it’s probably going to cost them big bucks to re-sign Capela, who will likely have at least one team willing to throw him a max offer this offseason. While that may be the case, Houston would be wise to match, even if it means diving further into luxury tax territory.
The Rockets truly have a great one in Capela, who doesn’t get the credit he deserves. I can’t imagine Daryl Morey letting him go this offseason, but stranger things have happened in the NBA. If he does hit the open market, he’ll have plenty of suitors lining up to woo him.
7. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Dallas Mavericks
Los Angeles Clippers fans will try to convince you that the team’s strong second-half showing will be enough to keep DeAndre Jordan around. However, with the way things have gone between his previous free agency and this season, I don’t think DJ hesitates to jump ship.
Jordan already tried to sign with the Dallas Mavericks a few years ago. Then, while waiting for free agency to officially begin, his teammates (specifically, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) essentially held him hostage, allowing the Clippers the opportunity to re-sign him. Now, Paul and Griffin are gone and this current roster is like a stranger to him.
The connections aren’t strong any more. The franchise doesn’t have as bright of a future. Even Doc Rivers seems to routinely be mentioned as on the hot seat. While the Mavericks aren’t any better off, they’ve at least got an intriguing young core of players and a lottery pick coming their way.
Jordan needs to wash his hands of the Clippers franchise and start anew elsewhere. By signing with Dallas, he returns to his home state of Texas and joins a club that could use a new face at center. I don’t think he’ll be playing for rings anytime soon with the Mavericks, but it’s not like he was doing that with the Clippers either.
6. Chris Paul, PG, Houston Rockets (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: Houston Rockets
I’m sorry folks, but I don’t see any scenario unfolding in which Chris Paul leaves the Rockets. This club is firing on all cylinders with the dynamic duo of Paul and James Harden running things. Is there any real reason Houston would break up the party now?
Seriously, I can’t think of one. Even if the Rockets tried to make a run at James this offseason, they’d find a way to bring Paul back as well. That would include one or both taking a huge paycut in order to make the financials work, but I’m sure the Banana Boat buddies would figure something out.
Again, I’m sitting here trying to imagine a scenario in which CP3 departs. Maybe the Rockets fall apart during the playoffs, chemistry goes down the drain, and he decides to look elsewhere for his first ring? The San Antonio Spurs make a pitch he simply can’t ignore? I’m not buying either of those hypotheticals.
Let’s get real. Paul will be back in Houston for the 2018-19 NBA season. It may not be at the price he’d like to get paid, especially after passing on a big payday to facilitate the trade that originally landed him with the Rockets.
In the end, though, CP3 and Harden will still be doing their thing together next season.
5. DeMarcus Cousins, C, New Orleans Pelicans (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: New Orleans Pelicans
You know what’s funny? Since DeMarcus Cousins got hurt, the New Orleans Pelicans have almost been a better team. Now that’s not to say that Cousins doesn’t bring a unique skill-set to the floor, but Anthony Davis stepped up and has the Pelicans looking like a team worth taking seriously.
Anthony Davis has been ballin’ since DeMarcus Cousins's injury on Jan. 26. pic.twitter.com/N2tJMZdMET
— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) March 15, 2018
While that may be the case, Cousins won’t have as many options as you’d expect this offseason. He’s coming off an injury that isn’t easy to bounce back from, especially for men of his size and stature. Chances are he won’t even be ready for the start of the 2018-19 season.
So here’s the Pelicans’ plan: they re-sign Cousins to a one-year deal. It essentially serves as a redshirt year, allowing him to heal up with the hopes he can return in the second half of the season. If not, they didn’t put themselves in a bind with a long-term deal, and can let him walk during the 2019 offseason.
In the end, it’ll come down to keeping Davis happy. He wants Cousins to stay, and is willing to get involved to make it happen (via New York Times‘ Marc Stein). In hopes of indulging the Brow, the Pelicans front office brings the other Twin Towers back for at least one more go-around.
4. Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets (Team Option)
Where he will sign: Denver Nuggets
You’re probably thinking, “Why is Nikola Jokic even on this list?” It’s a fair statement, seeing as he has a $1.6 million team option for 2018-19 that the Denver Nuggets would be absolutely bonkers to decline, right? Well, it’s more complicated than that.
By picking up that team option, the Nuggets put him on track to be an unrestricted free agent in 2019. Seeing as how he’s quickly blossoming into one of the best all-around bigs in the NBA, that would not be a good thing. There’s a very good chance Denver loses its superstar center in that scenario.
So instead, they should take the other route. By declining his option, they send him to restricted free agency, where they can match any offer he receives. There’s about a 100 percent chance the offer he receives is of the max variety, which Denver would match in a heartbeat. Even if another club tried to build some complexity into the deal, the Nuggets would make it work.
The chances of Denver letting Jokic go anywhere in the near future are slim to none. He’s turned out to be one of the biggest draft steals in recent memory, and the Nuggets aren’t going to let his ridiculous mix of size, playmaking and rim protection leave the Mile High City.
3. Paul George, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Los Angeles Lakers
I’m sorry, but I couldn’t resist. At this point, there just seems to be too much smoke for there to be no fire. All of the signs suggest Paul George is primed to join the Lakers, especially if the Thunder continue to underwhelm.
Come on — the writing has been on the wall for some time. PG-13 hasn’t been shy about his interest in joining the Lakers, the hometown team he rooted for as a child. They’ve obviously got an exciting group of young stars, and have proven in the second half of this season they’re capable of winning at a consistent clip.
Maybe the addition of George would be enough to put the Lakers over the top? Especially after re-signing Randle like I previously predicted, Los Angeles would seem to have a team worth its weight in first round picks. George just serves as the icing on the cake concocted of some of the finest NBA prospects in the land.
The Thunder would like to think they can find a way to retain George. I’m sure a couple of other teams will try to pitch the dynamic two-way star when he inevitably declines his player option. In the end, though, there’s just too much interest in a return to Los Angeles for George to take any other route this offseason.
2. Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Golden State Warriors
There’s been a lot of speculation on mediums like Reddit and Twitter about Kevin Durant potentially taking on the villain role again this offseason. The obvious connection with KD and the Washington Wizards seems to be the most prominent prediction.
However, I’m going to give Durant the benefit of the doubt. Instead of assuming he’s going to jump ship and display that lack of loyalty he’s become notorious (albeit, unnecessarily) for, he decides to stay with the Warriors.
My guess is he declines his player option, dipping his toes into the free agency pool for the briefest of moments. Once Golden State has worked out whatever other financial situations that are sure to arise this offseason, he inks another “1+1” discounted deal, allowing the Warriors to keep the band together. They can figure out the Klay Thompson situation next offseason.
Even if Golden State doesn’t win it all this season (a significant possibility), Durant stays put. He seems to be enjoying his time in the Bay Area, and has enjoyed far more success than he did in Oklahoma City. Why ruin a good thing?
1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Cleveland Cavaliers
Having grown up a Lakers fan, I’ll admit I seriously considered predicting that James would be taking his talents to Los Angeles this offseason. Then, I realized that little more than bias would be playing into that prediction.
No matter how many tea leaves are read and Instagram posts are analyzed, no one knows what James has planned. He could decide to weigh his options, take a few visits and listen to pitches from teams like the Lakers, Rockets and 76ers. However, when it all comes down to it, I don’t see an iron-clad reason why he leaves the Cavaliers.
Does he want to land in Los Angeles, pursuing business opportunities along the way? Maybe he wants to join some of his friends in Houston? Or how about finalizing the Process in Philadelphia?
Well let’s see. He can set up his post-career future from Cleveland — he doesn’t need to be in Los Angeles for that. The Rockets would have to go to extreme lengths (as explained by SB Nation’s Tim Cato) to create the necessary cap space. The 76ers are an intriguing landing spot, but I think there’s only faint interest there on LeBron’s part.
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Let’s be honest — James is staying in Cleveland. He may take a visit or show interest elsewhere to gain leverage, but it seems safe to assume the King will be in Ohio for at least one more year.