With the college basketball season finally underway, here is the first of many in-season big boards ahead of the 2018 NBA Draft.
College basketball is back and that means big boards have actual games to go off of. Duke, Arizona, Michigan St., Miami, Kentucky and more are absolutely loaded with top talent this season. By year’s end they could all lose several players to the NBA.
The talk of this 2018 NBA Draft, which you’ll hear a lot, is centered around the top of the draft and size. Those two coincide as many lottery prospects are forwards and centers. The consensus top five for a while has been four collegiate players and Luka Doncic. Competing with Doncic is Marvin Bagley III, Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba.
Each of those four players stands at least 6’10”. Doncic is no slouch either at nearly 6’8″. New size is coming to the NBA and with so many talented prospects, teams with top five picks won’t have an easy choice on their hands.
Outside of this fantastic five, depending on who comes out for the draft, lies a lot of solid talent, especially on the wings. The 2017 class is off to a strong start in the NBA, but the 2018 NBA Draft might have as many useful first round players, as well as more star power at the top. Here are the top 30 prospects early into the season.
30. Nickeil Alexander-Walker – Virginia Tech
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the first of many freshman and for good reason. At 6’6″, this combo guard at Virginia Tech has size to make an impact on both ends. He has tremendous size and length to disrupt on defense, facilitate and get his shot off.
Alexander-Walker went for 24-4-4 and hit four 3-pointers in his first game and followed that up by scoring 29. If that shot is falling and he’s able to consistently make good decisions, he might be a surprising one-and-done. He did have a dud at Madison Square Garden, so we definitely need a larger sample size.
29. Gary Trent Jr. – Duke
Amidst the additions of star freshmen Trevon Duval and Marvin Bagley III, Gary Trent Jr. has flown under the radar. Make no mistake, this smooth 6’5″ shooting guard is a legitimate NBA prospect. Trent Jr. had a memorable debut, scoring 17 points on 4-of-5 shooting from deep. Late in Duke’s win over Michigan State, he also hit a clutch 3.
The 3-ball is his calling card. He’ll get a lot of open looks this year with the talent Duke has. If he can show some life on defense or attacking off the dribble, he might be in the NBA a year early.
28. Nick Richards – Kentucky
Nick Richards is the latest near-seven footer to come into John Calipari’s freshmen factory. Richards’ ceiling, however, is much lower than previous centers like Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns.
The near-20-year-old freshman is a dynamic shot-blocker and lob target. He’s not much else, but excelling at those still makes him an incredibly useful player in today’s NBA. If he shows any potential outside of that, he may be worth a first round pick. So far he’s been underwhelming, but we’ve seen big men make strides under Calipari late in the season.
27. Andrew Jones – Texas
At 6’4″ with a near-6’7″ wingspan, Andrew Jones is built like a modern point guard. He flies around the court, is able to defend either guard spot and thrives in the open court. Jones has incredible two-way potential, but his shooting is far from a sure thing.
After hitting just 32.8 percent from deep last season, he’ll need to improve. Hitting at least 35 percent from 3 and making better decisions will see Jones with a strong case to be taken in the first round. What’s also important is showing he can be a floor general.
26. Kevin Knox – Kentucky
Kevin Knox is part of a very athletic group of Kentucky freshmen that have a lot of question marks. Given his height at 6’9″, his 7’0″ wingspan, his ridiculous bounce and his young age, he’s extremely intriguing.
Right now it’s unclear what Knox does well that’s not tied to his athleticism or jumper, and that jumper is still not a given. However, his 3-for-6 shooting against Kansas was a good sign. Knox needs to commit to becoming a defensive menace that can switch ball screens and attack the glass. Otherwise, his unpolished game and suspect shooting leaves a lot to be desired. But the shooting and athleticism makes him so enticing all the same.
25. Chimezie Metu – USC
Chimezie Metu was the Pac-12’s most improved player last season and through one game, he already looks better. Metu buried two 3s in USC’s season opener and looks to have added some significant muscle. He’s already got excellent feet to defend on the perimeter and make moves in the post.
With improved range, he’s got some consistency on defense away from looking like a top-20 pick. It should be a big year for both he and the Trojans. If Metu can better control the glass and protect the rim, look out.
24. Jarred Vanderbilt – Kentucky
Jarred Vanderbilt is out injured now, but don’t sleep on this guy. He could be Kentucky’s best prospect. Like his teammates, and many others in college, his major flaw is a lack of shooting.
However, Vanderbilt is a rare big man that can handle the ball and make plays both in transition and the half court. He’s also a terrific rebounder at times. Vanderbilt needs to fall into the right situation, but his unique skill-set is incredibly intriguing. He could really thrive with a stretch-5.
23. Shake Milton – SMU
I’ve written extensively on Shake Milton and there’s a lot to like. He has excellent size to guard multiple positions, perhaps even 1-3. Standing 6’6″ with a wingspan of almost seven feet will do that for you.
Add in the ability to handle and pass some, and an excellent shooting touch and you see why NBA teams have an eye on him. A career 42 percent 3-point shooter, Milton looks like he could hang in the league in a lesser role.
22. Jacob Evans – Cincinnati
Jacob Evans is this year’s legitimate 3-and-D prospect that’s gone a bit under the radar. While he plays for a power 5 school in Cincinnati, he’s not as known as many of the freshmen phenomena.
The 6’6″ wing has a strong build, decent wingspan and his start to the season is extremely promising. In his first two games, Evans averaged 14 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and one steal, while shooting 41.7 percent from 3. If his shooting and assists don’t regress much, he deserves first round consideration.
21. Hamidou Diallo – Kentucky
Hamidou Diallo probably has the highest ceiling of any of the Kentucky freshmen due to his freakish athletic ability. At 6’5″ with a 6’11” wingspan he has ideal height to play the 2 and potentially guard 1-3.
Diallo’s red flags were shooting and scoring in the half court, but he’s already shown signs of improvement. Diallo is averaged 17 points through his first two games, hit 3-of-6 from deep and turned the ball over just once. Despite a poor shooting night against Kansas, he still had 14 points and four assists. If he can keep this up, look out.
20. Isaac Bonga – Frankfurt
Isaac Bonga might not be the best international prospect after Luka Doncic, but he’s undoubtedly the most interesting one. Just 18 years old, Bonga is nearly 6’9″ with a 7’0″ wingspan, but he doesn’t play like a wing or a big. He’s a point guard and NBA teams are willing to let taller players handle the point.
Bonga’s size allows him to make passes most can’t and he also happens to be a strong defender. He definitely needs to improve as a scorer and shooter, but judging by Ben Simmons’ ball-handling and defensive prowess, Bonga running an NBA offense might not be that crazy.
19. Dzanan Musa – Cedevita
While Bonga may be the most interesting foreign prospect after Doncic, Dzanan Musa might be the safest. Bonga may surprise you by being more than a tall wing, but Musa is exactly what he looks like. Musa is a scoring machine at 6’9″.
Don’t expect him to play much defense yet, especially with a poor wingspan, but he can stretch the floor and get you a bucket. He’s already starting the year incredibly well in Croatia. There’s a good chance, should he declare, he’ll be the second international player taken after Doncic.
What a season by Dzanan Musa so far: 1.43 PPS on 59% eFG & 24.2% USG, 38.8% on 80 3PAs, 15.3% AST, 10.1% TO, 17.4% DREB in 401 MP.
— Rafael Uehara (@rafael_uehara) November 12, 2017
18. Trevon Duval – Duke
This might be a little low for Trevon Duval given his strong start to the season. After coming in with concerns over his shooting and decision-making, he’s generated 30 assists early on while turning it over just four times. At 6’3″ with long arms, Duval can be disruptive and wreak havoc on defense and in transition.
We still have yet to see much shooting touch or the ability to consistently beat his man in the half-court, though. That lack of shooting, despite his stellar all-around game, makes him hard to evaluate. Still this promising start by Duval shows he has potential to be a lottery pick.
17. Mitchell Robinson – N/A
Mitchell Robinson made one of the most surprising decisions in recent memory to skip college this year to prepare for the NBA Draft. Robinson was headed to Western Kentucky after being named a McDonald’s All-American. Now his draft stock is in limbo.
On the plus side, he has more time to work on his game. On the other hand, he’s going to be a mystery. Robinson will likely still be a first round pick because he’s a 7’1″ center that can dive and protect the rim. However, if several players’ draft stocks improve a lot, he could be sweating on draft night.
16. De’Anthony Melton – USC
While USC has started the college season 2-0, De’Anthony Melton has been stuck on the bench as the FBI investigation continues. It’s unclear if Melton is involved and what repercussions could be, but as an NBA prospect, there’s not as much in doubt.
Melton is the type of Swiss army knife guard that can fit onto any NBA team. He can defend either guard spot thanks to his long arms, plays with a high motor and can even play some point guard. If he’s cleared and his jumper improves, he should be a top-20 pick, and maybe even higher.
15. Mikal Bridges – Villanova
Every year we look for an upperclassmen who can seamlessly fit into the NBA as super role player of sorts. This year that might be Villanova’s Mikal Bridges. Bridges is an incredible defender, who, at 6’7 with a wingspan over seven feet, shot 39 percent from 3 last season.
Now, Bridges needs to prove his shot is for real and it’d be nice if he showed growth either as a playmaker or scorer too. But for now, even if just the 3-ball is falling, this type of two-way wing is too valuable in the NBA.
14. Justin Jackson – Maryland
Justin Jackson is similar to Bridges, though he’s a bit bigger, in the sense that he’s a potentially great, versatile defender. What he needs to prove is that he can stretch the floor because even the best defenders can undo their contributions by being a negative on offense.
As a freshman, he hit 43.8 percent of his 3s on 105 attempts. While Bridges is more of a guy who can defend wings and guards, Jackson has some small-ball 5 potential because of his wingspan. Potential is oozing with this guy.
13. Bruce Brown – Miami
Starting with Miami’s Bruce Brown, this is where the draft enters its top tiers of talent. Brown is similar to Melton in that he’s a Swiss army knife style combo guard, but he’s certainly more polished. In his season debut, Brown dropped a casual triple-double.
He’s a menace on the boards, is showing growth as a passer and is as versatile and mean as ever on defense. Again, sorry to be a broken record, but he’s got to improve as a shooter. Brown is 2-for-9 from 3 to start the year and shot under 35 percent last year. That might be the only thing that can hold him back.
12. Wendell Carter – Duke
Due to playing with Marvin Bagley III, we may not get to see Wendell Carter’s full potential this year. While Carter has a strong back-to-the-basket game, he’s an extremely good passer and someone with a developing shot. Carter has the potential to play the 5 in the NBA due to his size and length, especially as the league goes smaller.
Can he show enough potential with his shot throughout the season? Can he protect the rim enough? The answer to these questions will likely determine if Carter is seen as on par with this elite class of bigs or in the tier below.
11. Robert Williams – Texas A&M
Robert Williams was one of two high-profile prospects to come back to school this season. Williams had a strong freshman season at Texas A&M despite just 25.8 minutes per game. A bit undersized at 6’9″, Williams wreaked havoc as a rim protector and lob target.
The key for him this year is becoming a better well-rounded defender and showing any other offensive potential. His ridiculous athleticism provides a very high ceiling, but he has some bust potential.
10. Troy Brown – Oregon
In a draft full of players 6’10” or taller, Troy Brown could be the best guard. Brown will handle the ball a lot at Oregon and be able to show off his point-forward potential. He’s played point guard plenty and could provide playmaking that pairs with excellent defense.
The only thing holding him back may be his jumper. So far Brown is averaging 17.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game, while shooting 83 percent from the line. However, he’s just 2-for-9 from 3-point range. If that improves, this two-way point-forward deserves top-10 consideration.
9. Lonnie Walker – Miami
Many players in this draft have unique qualities.From unicorn big men such as DeAndre Ayton to point-forwards like Luka Doncic, there’s a lot of potential. Lonnie Walker is a straight two-way shooting guard.
That might not be as catchy of a headline, but just look at Robert Covington’s play in Philly and you see just how important two-way wings are. Walker is a bouncy athlete who can thrive in the open court and even has some passing potential to unlock. He’s the premier 3-and-D prospect this year.
8. Collin Sexton – Alabama
The 2017 class was the year of the point guard. For 2018, there’s far less depth and firepower, but Collin Sexton might be the alpha dog. Trevon Duval has started the year tremendously, so this may end up being a tight race for the first point guard to be taken in June.
After serving a one-game suspension, Sexton dropped 22 points and five assists in his college debut. He also made three of his five attempts from 3. If he can show that shot is for real it’ll be hard for Duval to pass him. That being said, Sexton needs to hone in his aggression and be a good decision-maker.
7. Miles Bridges – Michigan St.
Miles Bridges is back at school for his sophomore year and he’s taking names. While two games is a small sample size, his numbers look great. Bridges is averaging 19.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 3.0 assistw per game and is shooting nearly 42 percent from deep.
Those numbers are great, and the blocks will likely drop, but he just doesn’t look like he could be a No. 1 or 2 option in the NBA. Though Bridges is a great athlete and can move his feet, at 6’6″ he still might be better off at power forward in the NBA. The shot looks legitimate, which is key for his pro chances.
6. Jaren Jackson Jr. – Michigan State
Going into the season, there was more or less a consensus top-five. And then Jaren Jackson Jr. happened. With the size and length to protect the rim and great touch on his jumper, Jackson looks like a true modern day big man.
Through two games, Jackson is putting up unreal numbers: 16 points, 10 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 2.0 assists per game, while hitting six of his 10 3-pointers. With his motor and versatility, get ready for him to join the top-five conversation.
5. Marvin Bagley III – Duke
Admittedly, I’m lower on Marvin Bagley III and that has less to do with his game. It’s more to do with the potential of his peers. Bagley is the rare star prospect with a tremendous motor. He has a ridiculous second jump and is great at finishing with his left hand.
While he’s shown flashes as a passer, there’s a lot of room for growth with shot selection and decision-making. With possibly the most suspect jumper of the group and an inability to greatly protect the rim, it lowers his ceiling. Bagley is going to be a great player, but just be wary of how high is ceiling really is.
4. Michael Porter Jr. – Missouri
We haven’t really gotten to see Michael Porter Jr. yet, but he’s easily in the discussion for the top-5, if not the No. 1 overall pick. Porter is one of the most unique players we’ve seen in recent years. He’s basically a 6’10” shooting guard with good athleticism. It’s unclear what position he’ll guard and if he can develop other parts of his game, though.
However, he looks like he could be a No. 1 option for an NBA team. Porter can pull up from anywhere, similarly to Kevin Durant. That’s just about where the comparisons ends, but he’s still an incredible prospect.
3. Mohamed Bamba – Texas
Starting with Mohamed Bamba, this is a tier above Porter and Bagley. The reason for that is the two-way potential of him and the next player. These guys are true unicorn prospects. For Bamba, he has solid touch, a high IQ and could be the next great defensive center.
With a 7’9″ wingspan and a 9’6″ standing reach, he just completely changes the game defensively. Bamba also is an underrated passer. If his motor is consistent and he continues to develop his jumper, he has a case to go No. 1.
2. DeAndre Ayton – Arizona
The gap between Bamba and DeAndre Ayton is very small. Whereas Bamba is the clear better defensive prospect, Ayton takes the cake on offense. We’re talking a poor man’s Joel Embiid with his potential.
Ayton can step out and hit jumpers, face up, post up, pass and pretty much anything else you can think of. Oh, and he might be the most athletic center we’ve ever seen. That allows him to be a solid defender. He came into college with concerns over his effort level and that has yet to be an issue at Arizona. With unicorn potential, Ayton could go No. 1 as well.
1. Luka Doncic – Real Madrid
I’ll keep it short with Luka Doncic after writing this piece on his stellar start. Doncic is around 6’8″ with generational passing, deft shooting and a killer mentality. This kid hates losing and always goes hard. He might be a tad slow relative to NBA athletes, but his passing, IQ and physicality will see him succeed no matter what.
Next: 2018 NBA Draft Big Board - late October
He’s the clear No. 1 pick, even with Bamba and Ayton’s potential. You don’t get to run the point at Real Madrid and dominate grown men at 18 if you’re not special.