The weeks leading up to a new NBA season are always filled with guesswork, but now it’s time for some bold predictions before the 2017-18 campaign.
With Media Day already behind us and preseason action officially underway, each day brings basketball fans closer to their own version Christmas in October: the start of a new NBA season.
In the weeks leading up to a new season, there’s time for plenty of predictions. From forecasts of the playoff field to top 10 candidates lists for each award to season previews, there’s always something to speculate about for each team in the league, from the title contenders at the top to the tankers at the bottom of the barrel.
But now that we’ve gotten most of the sensical analysis and more measured takes out of the way, it’s time to throw caution to the wind and make some bold predictions for the upcoming 2017-18 NBA season.
Things like “the Golden State Warriors will win the title,” “the Houston Rockets will shatter 3-point records” or “Lonzo Ball will win Rookie of the Year” won’t fly here. These predictions may not have been fueled by a Guinness bender, but fortune still favors the bold here.
While they’re still grounded in logic and operate within the realm of possibility, these 10 bold predictions are meant to be exactly that — bold. Bearing that in mind, let’s dive in.
10. The Los Angeles Lakers have a fire sale at the trade deadline
This is probably the least bold prediction of the bunch, but with the Los Angeles Lakers already shipping off D’Angelo Russell to get someone to take on Timofey Mozgov‘s contract, there’s still work to be done to clear out room for two max contracts in next summer’s loaded free agency class.
Brook Lopez, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Corey Brewer are all free agents this summer, so the only thing the Lakers will have to worry about is their cap holds until they sign with another team. However, Luol Deng‘s albatross of a contract (two years and $36.8 million after this season) needs to be dealt elsewhere.
In order to do so, prospective buyers will be asking for sweeteners of some sort, whether that’s a future first round pick or one of the team’s younger talents like Julius Randle, Ivica Zubac, Larry Nance Jr. and especially Jordan Clarkson, who is owed $25.9 million from 2018-20.
Randle is a restricted free agent next summer, Zubac may not get to prove himself behind Lopez and Andrew Bogut this year and Clarkson hasn’t shown his ceiling to be much higher than inefficient sixth man. With the Lakers desperate to move Deng and become active players in free agency, everyone outside of Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram could be for sale by the trade deadline.
9. The Los Angeles Clippers make the playoffs — comfortably
Outside of the four locks in the Western Conference (Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder), there could be as many as seven teams competing for those final four spots.
The Minnesota Timberwolves feel like a safe bet too, so from there, it’ll come down to the Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trail Blazers, Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies all jostling for playoff positioning in those other three spots.
The only team being more overlooked in this group than the Utah Jazz — who lost Gordon Hayward this summer — are the Clippers, who lost Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and Luc Mbah a Moute. Still, Lob City is nowhere near its deathbed, and not just because Milos Teodosic is an actual wizard.
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— James Herbert (@outsidethenba) October 4, 2017
The Clippers won’t be title contenders in 2017-18, but overlooking this veteran group feels like a mistake. Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Danilo Gallinari, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and Austin Rivers are all experienced players, and aside from injury concerns, there’s a great mix of playmaking, 3-point shooting, defense and interior threats at the rim.
Lob City is still alive and breathing, and barring injury setbacks for Griffin and/or Gallo, I actually went as far as predicting the Clippers would finish sixth in the Western Conference playoff picture.
8. The New Orleans Pelicans trade DeMarcus Cousins
Don’t get me wrong, I want Boogie and the Brow to work more than anyone. Not only is that a great name for a crappy ’90s sitcom, but it represents a pairing of two potential unicorns in a league that’s getting smaller and smaller.
But as much as everyone wants Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins to become a modern-day Twin Towers, the New Orleans Pelicans (predictably) struggled to put help around them. Last summer’s spending spree on the likes of Solomon Hill and E’Twaun Moore devastated their cap space, especially with Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca still clogging up the books.
The Pellies had to re-sign Jrue Holiday to a “back me into a corner” type of deal, but plan to play him off the ball with Rajon Rondo at the 1. Ian Clark was a good get, as was Lance Stephenson at that stage in free agency, but this team still has major questions outside of its two star players.
It doesn’t take a crystal ball to predict that in a loaded Western Conference, the Pelicans probably won’t hit the ground running. Boogie is a free agent in 2018, which means when Rondo and company fail to live up to the hype and the season starts heading downhill, frustration and anxiety will set in.
Given Cousins’ reputation, any surliness or on-court behavior problems will only amplify those negative feelings. In that s**t-storm of a perfect storm, the Pelicans will panic and deal Cousins elsewhere rather than risk losing him for nothing in free agency.
7. The Milwaukee Bucks earn a top-four seed in the East
The top of the Eastern Conference feels wide open this season. Between shakeups to the Boston Celtics’ and Cleveland Cavaliers’ rosters, the Toronto Raptors losing a few key bench pieces and the Washington Wizards failing to address their bench problems, a year of internal improvement and continuity could throw the Milwaukee Bucks into the category of Eastern elite.
Okay, so maybe a 42-team from last season isn’t going to suddenly steal the No. 1 seed, but it’s impossible to have watched Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s breakout year and NOT be excited about what’s coming in 2017-18. He’s already a dark horse MVP candidate, which is terrifying for the rest of the league.
It’s not just the Greek Freak though. Even with Jabari Parker still recuperating, Khris Middleton will get to shake off the rust and re-establish himself as one of the NBA’s most underrated 3-and-D wings. Malcolm Brogdon is the reigning Rookie of the Year, Thon Maker will continue to improve and Tony Snell proved he fits in perfectly with this team.
Don’t be surprised when the Bucks blow the doors off preseason expectations and replace one of the Raptors or Wizards in the top four of the Eastern Conference standings.
6. The San Antonio Spurs finish fourth in the West
I know, I know. Doubt the San Antonio Spurs at your own peril. Questioning this ageless team has become an annual tradition, and every year the Spurs wind up making everyone look stupid by winning 60 games and looking like a threat to win the title.
But even with Kawhi Leonard reaching his apex as a perennial MVP candidate, he really doesn’t have much help around him. That didn’t stop him from carrying San Antonio to 61 wins last year, but this seasons’s roster seems admittedly worse than any in recent memory.
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Not only did the Spurs fail to acquire any game-changing pieces in a summer where their Western brethren all did, but they also lost two quality defenders in Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon. Rudy Gay was their most notable addition, and he’s coming off an Achilles tear.
Tony Parker is still recovering from a season-ending injury as well, which means the Spurs desperately lack experience at the point guard spot. Meanwhile, Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge looked like shells of their former selves in the playoffs.
With the Thunder adding Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and Patrick Patterson, the Houston Rockets landing Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute and the Minnesota Timberwolves snagging Jimmy Butler, the Spurs are no longer the top threat to the Golden State Warriors in the West.
As such, we could very easily see San Antonio sink behind the Warriors, Rockets and Thunder in the standings by season’s end.
5. These five coaches will be let go
Fred Hoiberg. Stan Van Gundy. Nate McMillan. Alvin Gentry. Dwane Casey.
These are the five head coaches that will be fired by the end of the 2017-18 NBA season.
For Hoiberg, it’d seem like a waste. Everyone knows expectations for the Chicago Bulls should be extremely low, and the front office is paying their guy $5 million annually through 2019-20. However, if “Hoiball” fails to show any signs of traction in 2017-18 — even with a talent-starved roster — the Bulls could easily use a tank year as an excuse to let go of an underwhelming hire.
As of April 2017, Stan Van Gundy’s job was still safe with the Detroit Pistons. But if the Avery Bradley addition doesn’t work wonders and this team sputters again after a majorly disappointing season in 2016-17, the Pistons will look for a fresh start and remove SVG from his roles as head coach and president of basketball operations. His contract runs through 2018-19 at $7 million a year.
Pelican Debrief
Like the Bulls, the Indiana Pacers should know the team’s failures in 2017-18 can’t be pinned solely on the coach. Unlike the Bulls, the Pacers expect to be more competitive since they have a better roster. When McMillan fails to establish an identity for a team falling well out of the playoff picture, or worse, if Myles Turner‘s growth stalls under his watch, he’ll get the axe with a contract that only runs through 2018-19.
Alvin Gentry is firmly situated in the hot seat, as it’s playoffs or bust for the New Orleans Pelicans. Following our doomsday predictions at No. 8 on the list, it won’t be surprising to see a head coaching vacancy when this team misses out on a postseason appearance during another one of Anthony Davis’ prime years. Gentry’s contract has a team option for 2018-19.
Finally, there’s the most surprising inclusion of the list, Dwane Casey. For years the Toronto Raptors have followed a similar pattern: Earn a top-three seed in the East, build up “We The North” hype, watch Kyle Lowry‘s late-season production crater, flame out early in the playoffs.
All the talk this summer has been about adapting the team’s offense to fit a more modern playing style, but when that fails and the Raptors’ offense falls apart in the playoffs again, Casey will get the blame. Masai Ujiri has not been shy about his disdain for complacency, which means it’ll be time for a head coaching change after locking in Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Serge Ibaka for the long haul. Casey’s contract runs through 2018-19 with an annual salary of $6 million.
4. The Memphis Grizzlies blow it up
I swear I didn’t intend for all of these bold predictions to be so negative. Memphis Grizzlies fans, avert your eyes.
It was hard enough to watch Zach Randolph, Tony Allen and Vince Carter leave in free agency this summer as the inevitable first steps toward an identity beyond the Grit-N-Grind era. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol would be unbearable departures, but they can only do so much, especially with their propensity for being injured.
Gasol has already made some comments about “revisiting” his future with the team if things go south, and if Chandler Parsons‘ ligaments continue to be made of Pixy Stix, things could head in that direction pretty quickly.
Maybe David Fizdale and the Grizz stun everyone with a playoff berth, but given the competition out West, it feels highly unlikely. CBS Sports‘ Matt Moore reports both Big Spain and Conley are “untouchable” in trade talks, but will that change if the playoffs start slipping well out of reach and both star players grow discontent?
It is within the parameters of this worst-case scenario in which we operate. The Grizzlies could realize Gasol is 32, Conley is 29 and both players’ trade values may never get higher than they are right now. After all, the team already lost some key pieces to its old institution; at what point does the front office believe it’s time for a full-scale rebuild?
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo wins MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo finished fifth on our list of top 10 MVP candidates, but we’re going to take this dark horse pick into bold prediction territory. In a field that includes Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, the Greek Freak is going to emerge as the Most Valuable Player at age 23.
This is obviously a ballsy pick, but why not? Westbrook already shattered the notion that an MVP’s team has to rank in the top-three of his conference standings to win the award as long as the numbers are gaudy enough. Though Giannis won’t be putting up a triple-double this season, he seems poised to take the league by storm nonetheless.
For starters, the East is as weak as it’s been in recent memory, which should allow the Milwaukee Bucks to build on their 42-win season in 2016-17. The Greek Freak led his team in all five major statistical categories behind averages of 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.6 steals per game, so he’s clearly already a two-way terror.
After winning Most Improved Player of the Year, the next target for him is MVP. Maybe predicting that outcome in 2017-18 is a year premature, but it’s only a matter of time before this league belongs to Giannis. If Milwaukee wins 50+ games and snags a top-three seed in the East, don’t rule this out.
2. The Golden State Warriors win 73 games, go 16-0 in the playoffs
“The Golden State Warriors will win the 2018 NBA Finals” is not a bold prediction. “The Golden State Warriors will win at least 73 games and go undefeated in the playoffs,” however, is exactly what we’re here for.
That might sound crazy on paper. Quite a few Warriors players said their quest for 73 wins in 2015-16 was a distraction, and it may have contributed to their legendary 3-1 collapse in the NBA Finals that cost them a title.
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But the Dubs also won 67 games last season, and that was with Kevin Durant missing 20 games. They went 16-1 in the postseason as well, with a Game 4 road loss in an elimination game for the Cleveland Cavaliers serving as their only defeat.
Not only will Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and KD be even better together now that they’re fully acclimated, but the Dubs brought nearly every key free agent back and also added spot-up shooters in Nick Young and Omri Casspi. The bench is as good as ever and the Warriors look ready to establish a new NBA dynasty.
The Rockets, Thunder, Timberwolves and nearly every other Western Conference playoff team got better over the summer. But they’re all still playing for second, and a Cavs team giving heavy minutes to an aging Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose and Isaiah Thomas doesn’t stand a chance of staying on the floor with Golden State on the defensive end.
1. The Philadelphia 76ers win a playoff game
That’s right folks. Not only are the Philadelphia 76ers returning to the playoffs this year, but they’re also going to win at least one game in their first postseason appearance since 2012!
Obviously this is contingent on a number of factors. These young Sixers will have to improve on their 28-win total from last year, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz will have to be good enough to be Rookie of the Year frontrunners and Joel Embiid will have to build on his revelation of a rookie season.
That starts with staying healthy, but after so many negative bold predictions, we’re going to optimistically say Simmons, Embiid, Fultz, J.J. Redick and everyone else stay relatively healthy — at least enough to beat out the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, etc. for one of the last two playoff seeds in the East.
From that point, the Sixers have the difficult task of winning one game against the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the East — most likely either the Cavs or the Celtics. It’s a tall task, but if The Process in his first playoff appearance gives rise to just one transcendent performance in front of a rocking home crowd, Philly can win at least one game.
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So please, Embiid, stay healthy to not only lead the 76ers back to the promised land, but snag a playoff win against a vastly superior opponent. This is exactly what Sam Hinkie died for.