The Denver Nuggets narrowly missed the postseason last year. How did their offseason prepare them to make the playoffs in 2017-18?
The Denver Nuggets were the fullest actualization of a one-sided team last season. Offensively they were unstoppable once center Nikola Jokic was bumped back into the starting lineup, ranking first in offensive efficiency from mid-December on. Defensively they were the exact opposite, ranking just 29th on the season in defensive efficiency.
With a future All-Star in Jokic at center, and a young talented backcourt, this team’s biggest opportunity this summer was to upgrade at the forward positions, ideally with a difference-maker on defense. They attempted to address the area both in the draft and free agency, with differing results.
After just barely missing the postseason last year, the Nuggets have their sights set on playoff basketball. With a core almost completely turned over from their last playoff berth, this team is new and exciting and brimming with upside.
Did their summer help them towards their goal of competing both this season and beyond? Did this front office accomplish their goals through the draft, free agency and trades? And ultimately, how should the Nuggets and their moves be graded?
Traded for Trey Lyles, pick No. 23
Entering the 2017 NBA Draft, the Denver Nuggets, losers of the race for the Western Conference’s final playoff berth, were firmly fixed at the back end of the lottery. While the 13th pick was not the most valuable of picks, it represented an opportunity to add talent to this core before the team made the next leap forward.
As the draft board played out, the Denver Nuggets made the decision to double their chances at finding another rotation piece. Rather than stay at No. 13 and make a pick there, they flipped the pick to the Utah Jazz in return for the 24th overall pick and forward Trey Lyles.
Lyles played one season at the University of Kentucky before declaring for the NBA, and the Jazz took him with the 12th overall pick in 2015. Playing on a deep team, Lyles has shown flashes of potential while playing limited minutes, but never cracked the rotation full-time. During Utah’s postseason this past spring, Lyles was not a factor in the rotation.
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If we identify Denver’s greatest need as a defensive stopper on the wing, then two players available at No. 13 offered large defensive upside. Donovan Mitchell out of Louisville is long and projects to be an immediate impact defender, and is the player the Jazz selected as part of the trade. He would have fit a clear need for the Nuggets, and at 13 was a solid value.
The other player available was OG Anunoby, a sophomore out of Indiana who has the ability to one day soon guard all five positions in the NBA. It has been reported that Denver was hoping that Anunoby would fall to them at 24, and in fact he made it all the way to 23, when former Nuggets general manager Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors took him one pick ahead of Denver.
In general, when drafting in the NBA, it is wiser not to trust your own evaluations but instead to give yourself as many chances as possible to draft a high-upside player. Denver did that in a way with their trade, adding both Trey Lyles and Tyler Lydon, getting two bites at the apple. But there were players available that Denver could have taken to meet needs, and they lost out by trading down.
Grade: C
Drafting Tyler Lydon
Since Carmelo Anthony entered the league after one championship-claiming season at Syracuse University, players coming out of Syracuse have yielded inconsistent and often disappointing results in the NBA. From Fab Melo and Johnny Flynn to Wesley Johnson and Michael Carter-Williams, former Orange players have faded quickly once entering the professional ranks.
Tyler Lydon was a key part of a Syracuse team that made a run to the Final Four in 2016, returning to the Orange to put together a solid sophomore season. An elite shooter throughout college, Lydon’s ability to knock down shots will be his greatest skill at the professional level.
As a high-I.Q. offensive player, Lydon could soon develop into a scoring and passing threat alongside Nikola Jokic. The best version of Lydon would form a terrifying offensive combination in the frontcourt that would stretch opposing defenses to the limit.
However, Lydon is far from a sure thing, as his role in the vaunted Syracuse zone muddies any true evaluation of his defensive ability. Player after player has entered the league with solid defensive stats only to fall short of achieving passable defense. Lydon could be a solid team defender at the next level, but his lack of athleticism and lateral quickness mean he will never be much more.
Lydon possesses one of the most valuable commodities in the league, with a smooth jump shot that is wet from all over the court. But his athletic limitations and college pedigree stand out as red flags. At pick No. 24, there were not only other options but better power forward prospects available, such as Jonah Bolden, Semi Ojeleye or Jordan Bell.
Grade: C
Drafting Vlatko Cancar
With a pair of second round picks and an already crowded roster, it seemed likely that Denver would take an international prospect who was not yet ready to come over. They did just that in drafting Vlatko Cancar, adding another forward to an increasingly crowded collection.
The Nuggets have seen incredible success in recent years from international players, from solid contributors in Danilo Gallinari and Timofey Mozgov to young current prospects in Nikola Jokic, Juan Hernangomez and Jusuf Nurkic, even if the latter was traded away.
In Cancar, the Nuggets have a versatile combo forward who has developed over the past few years into a capable shooter and defensive player. Playing for well-known European team Mega Leks, where Jokic himself starred, Cancar stepped up as a key reserve as a 19-year-old.
While the Nuggets have now loaded their forward spots with potential options, Cancar is a player who can continue his development from a distance. While Denver sorts out the long-term viability of Hernangomez, Lyles and Lydon behind starters Wilson Chandler and Paul Millsap, Cancar can grow his game overseas. Whether he can come stateside and be a meaningful contributor is certainly possible, and the 49th pick is an easy price to pay for such a shot.
Grade: B-
Drafting Monte Morris
Four-year players in college often struggle to make the leap into the modern NBA. This is mostly because those players with NBA talent are often identified early enough and encouraged to leave school early. But players do put in a full college career before entering the draft, with mixed results.
Of all of the positions, point guard seems to be the one most likely to produce a high-level player entering the draft after a senior season. Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Darren Collison have all made an impact at the point after playing four seasons of college basketball.
Monte Morris was a star at Iowa State, starring as one of the country’s top point guards throughout his college career. By the end of his senior season Morris broke the record for assist-to-turnover ratio, which he had set himself his freshman year.
The upside to become a star player is probably not in Morris’ future, but he does have the chops and experience to become a career backup. Since the draft, Denver has since signed Morris to a two-way contract, and in the case of an injury to one of the Nuggets’ top three point guards, Morris could see run in the league.
At pick 51 the options are limited, and Morris is a player who has shown he can produce on big stages. Whether he will have the athleticism to take a step further will have to be seen, but he was a good use of a late second round pick.
Grade: B+
Signing Paul Millsap
With long-term starters locked in at the 1, 2 and 5, the Denver Nuggets knew they needed to address the forward positions. As previously mentioned they did so aggressively in the draft, trading for Trey Lyles and selecting Tyler Lydon in the first round.
The Nuggets were also involved in trade discussions involving Paul George and Kevin Love, where Love would become a Nugget. While the offensive ceiling of that team would be incredible, defensively Denver wouldn’t have been able to contend with such a poor defensive frontcourt.
Denver made the right choice in not trading assets for Love, and was proven right when the best power forward on the market signed a contract to join the Nuggets. Rather than give up core pieces of their roster in Gary Harris or Hernangomez, Denver was able to add to that core.
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At age 32, the undersized Paul Millsap is likely to decline as he ages, but Denver accounted for that in the contract they signed the former Hawk to. By signing Millsap to just a three-year deal, the Nuggets ensured they wouldn’t be burdened by the onerous contract of a geriatric former star. With a team option on the third year, Denver made this deal incredibly team-friendly while still giving Millsap the up-front money he was seeking. Down the road when Millsap is no longer performing like a star, they don’t have to pay him like one anymore.
To be clear, Millsap at 32 has been slowly declining and will continue to do so; but at some point there will be a more drastic drop-off. Not just contractually, but on-the-court. Denver is set up well for this, as Jamal Murray will be ready to step up as the second banana. The Nuggets are putting together a sharp timetable of growth.
All aging caveats now set aside, Paul Millsap is an All-Star level player right now, something the Nuggets have needed for years. In Millsap they have an elite defensive player who combines the perimeter lockdown benefits of a wing player with the rim protection and rebounding of a big man. While Millsap is not the very best in the NBA at either, his versatility allows him to make an impact no matter the personnel he is playing alongside or matched up against.
Offensively Millsap worked to add the 3-point shot last season. He is also a willing and crafty passer, and alongside Jokic should spark highlight-worthy passing chains that result in wide open shots. He has the speed to beat bigger defenders, but has developed a nasty post game to bully smaller defenders.
The distant future shows Millsap as too old to lead this team to the NBA Finals. But for now Denver needed a defensive stanchion and two-way star, and they got one in free agency on a smart deal. As Millsap fades into a lesser role down the road, Denver has other players who will step up. While no one is assured of anything in the NBA, this team is putting together a strong core.
Paul Millsap is not only the latest member of that core, but the most accomplished. Signing him not only signals a change in this team’s ability to draw free agents, but likewise a change in their prospects. Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, and now Paul Millsap are going to be part of one of the league’s most exciting and potent offenses, and a young team ready to fight.
Grade: A+
The Danilo Gallinari sign-and-trade
In signing Paul Millsap to a contract starting at $30 million, the Nuggets effectively made their decision about which free agent forward they most valued. Even so, they worked at first to work out a deal at or below market value to bring Danilo Gallinari back to start at the 3 alongside Millsap.
In the end, the Nuggets did not have either the role nor the money Gallinari most coveted, and he declared his intentions to sign with the Los Angeles Clippers. Without the requisite cap space, the Clippers engaged Denver and the Atlanta Hawks in a three-team sign-and-trade to free up the space and add the Italian forward to their new-look lineup.
Rather than lose Gallinari for nothing, the Nuggets performed a sign-and-trade action and were provided a second round pick for their troubles. The pick, a second-rounder, is unlikely to move the needle for the organization. But something over nothing is always preferable.
The other angle is that the Nuggets helped a rival Western Conference team get better, and in a way that is true. But if Denver had not cooperated, the Clippers would have simply cleared more space and signed Gallinari outright using cap room, and the Nuggets would be without any compensation. Their reputation among the league is important to Denver, and by helping Gallinari reach his preferred destination, they showed players across the league their willingness to help their players.
In the end the impact on Denver is small, as they would have lost Gallinari almost certainly either way. The trade was a low-risk, low-reward move that made sense to make.
Grade: B-
Signing Childress
The Nuggets continued their forward overhaul even into September, signing Josh Childress to a one-year, non-guaranteed deal to add another body heading into training camp.
Josh Childress was a lottery pick of the Atlanta Hawks in 2004, and played out his rookie deal with the Hawks before causing league-wide ripples by turning down a contract extension to play overseas. Returning in 2010, Childress signed with the Phoenix Suns, only to be cut via the amnesty provision.
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Childress last played in the NBA in 2013, when he bounced around a few teams before ultimately being waived by the Pelicans. He then spent time in Australia, Japan and the D-League, never able to catch on with another NBA club. Most recently, and significantly, Childress played this summer in the Big 3 league.
By becoming the first player to be signed to an NBA contract after playing in the league, Childress is blazing a path for fringe NBA players to show scouts their mettle in competitive situations. While Childress didn’t dominate, he showed NBA scouts — and specifically the Denver Nuggets — that he still has NBA athleticism and something to offer.
With 14 guarnateed contracts plus the currently unsigned Mason Plumlee, there most likely isn’t a roster position available for Childress past preseason. But if Plumlee doesn’t return, or another player is cut or traded, then Childress could have a shot to make the team. He’ll certainly make every effort, and given his talent and pedigree that result isn’t out of the question. Any chance at a rotation piece on the wing is worth the negligible cost, even if the upside is low too.
Grade: B-
Overall
The Denver Nuggets were a team on the rise entering the offseason, in a way similar to the division rival Utah Jazz last season. The Jazz just missed out on the postseason in 2015-16, but with a young core and an elite focus, they built on their play to make the postseason the next season as the fifth seed.
The Nuggets can hope for a similar trajectory, with their team built around Nikola Jokic and an elite offense rather than the defense of the Jazz. After the Portland Trail Blazers and their new center Jusuf Nurkic beat out Denver for the eighth and final playoff berth, the Nuggets have many reasons to be optimistic about their chances this time around.
Paul Millsap is a perfect fit for what this team needed, and he was signed to a very team-friendly deal. That’s a huge win for a franchise that historically has struggled to attract free agents, and a sign of where this team is heading and how much of a draw NIkola Jokic is.
The offseason was not perfect, however, as the Nuggets threw a lot of resources at one hole. While it’s hard to be definitive before games have even started, it looks like Denver would have been better off with a player such as Donovan Mitchell instead of a pair of middling-upside power forwards in Trey Lyles and Tyler Lydon.
On the other hand, both Lyles and Lydon do have upside, and now the Nuggets have a number of options at a position where they struggled to find impact players behind the now-departed Danilo Gallinari. The Nuggets now go two-deep at every position on the roster (and about four or five deep at power forward), with many of those players young and still holding significant upside.
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This team is poised to go places, and with an All-Star added to the group the optimism is rightfully high.
Grade: B+