Phoenix Suns: 5 bold predictions for 2017-18 NBA season

With the 2017-18 NBA season approaching, here’s a look at five bold predictions for the young and rebuilding Phoenix Suns.

The Phoenix Suns are not one of the sexiest teams heading into the 2017-18 NBA season. In a summer that featured several star names swapping teams, Western powerhouses taking part in the arms race to keep up with the Golden State Warriors, and dozens or NBA League Pass favorites popping up, the Suns remain a young team with a lot of room for improvement.

However, that’s not to say Phoenix fans have nothing to look forward to. Unlike years past, where the team has missed the playoffs because of misguided attempts to build through the middle, the Suns will be bad because they have an exciting young core they’re committed to.

Heading into the franchise’s 50th season, and probably its eighth straight without a postseason appearance, the fair weather fans won’t be turning out in droves just yet. However, thanks to 20-year-old Devin Booker, rookie Josh Jackson and several other youngsters, the Suns have the foundation of something exciting.

With another developmental year on the docket, which players can be expected to step up? Is anyone on the trade block? Will anyone be in the running for one of the NBA’s individual awards, and what can fans expect from this team in general?

Before we get to official season previews, it’s worth taking a look at some bold predictions for the Phoenix Suns’ 2017-18 campaign.

5. Devin Booker averages 25 points per game

Typically, most NBA superstars make “the leap” in their third season in the league. We’ve seen it recently with guys like Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and young studs entering their third year like Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis are expected to follow similar paths in 2017-18.

Though no one should confuse Devin Booker’s ceiling with the two-way potential of those aforementioned superstars, anyone who’s been paying attention knows his scoring ability is off the charts. Heading into his third season in the league, it’s Booker’s time to take the reins of the offense.

To be clear, his progress on the defensive end is what will eventually determine whether he can become a legitimate superstar or if he’ll just be a dynamic scorer, but for the upcoming season, averaging 25 points per game doesn’t seem too unrealistic for the 20-year-old gunner.

Last year, despite starting the season with some paltry numbers as he played through a toe injury, Booker still wound up averaging 22.1 points per game. Though his .423/.363/.832 shooting splits left room for improvement, those numbers will continue to rise with more reps, and he’s certainly getting plenty of those after taking 18.3 shots per game last year.

Booker will get plenty of looks as he continues to grow as the face of the franchise, and his shot attempts will increase even more if the team decides to cash in on Eric Bledsoe‘s trade value.

In the formative years of #TheTimeline, you can expect a burgeoning scorer like Book to continue to hoist from all over the floor. Bearing all this in mind, 25 points per game feels like a pretty reasonable expectation in a potential breakout year.

4. Dragan Bender replaces (or joins) Marquese Chriss as a starter

Marquese Chriss was the Suns’ starting power forward by name last year, but he only averaged 21.3 minutes per game. After seeing him show up to NBA Summer League several pounds heavier (and not in a good way), and watching Dragan Bender excel on both ends of the court, it’s only a matter of time before that starting job at the 4 is an open discussion again.

As of right now, Chriss will probably get the nod as long as his ankle injury has healed as expected. Perhaps it stays that way for the entire 2017-18 campaign. But Bender’s two-way potential has shown in more flashes, even if Chriss’ off-the-charts athleticism is what leaps off the page.

For those paying close attention, however, Bender was the superior player in Las Vegas this summer, and quite frankly, it wasn’t close.

For the Suns to grow as a team, someone will have to join Josh Jackson in stepping up on the defensive end. Chriss has the speed and jumping ability to be a weak-side shot-blocker, but his pick-and-roll defense and lack of awareness are atrocious (and understandably so, since he’s only 20).

Chriss shot the ball well from 3-point range after the All-Star break, but Bender has similar upside as a stretch-big in addition to the playmaking, perimeter defense and rim protection he should bring to the table as he grows more confident and gains more experience.

At Summer League, that confidence was on full display. Like Chriss, he wasn’t particularly efficient, but he also wasn’t afraid to let it fly. As he gets stronger, he could be the multi-positional defender and maybe even the versatile franchise center Phoenix needs for the long haul.

Perhaps the Suns trade Tyson Chandler or are unable to bring back Alex Len, leaving some additional minutes available at the 5. More than likely though, one of Len/Chandler will be starting, so it’d actually be disappointing if Bender is unable to show his progress as a No. 4 overall pick by eventually overtaking Chriss for the starting power forward job.

3. Josh Jackson wins Rookie of the Year

This is a bit of a long shot, but there’s a reason these predictions are “bold.” In a loaded draft class that includes Rookie of the Year favorites like Ben Simmons, Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz and Dennis Smith Jr., there’s a chance Josh Jackson doesn’t even earn enough minutes to be in the conversation.

However, if the Suns don’t extend T.J. Warren before their upcoming deadline, it may signal that the front office is not convinced he has a long-term role with this team. Jackson is already being pencilled in as the team’s go-to small forward for the long haul, but if starting minutes are immediately up for grabs, #TheTimeline could see Jackson leapfrog Warren right away.

To be fair, Warren closed his up-and-down 2016-17 season on a very strong note, averaging 17.6 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on 52 percent shooting after the All-Star break. But if Jackson’s defense is NBA-ready and he can fine-tune that jump shot of his, he stands a chance of jumping into the starting rotation, if not on opening day, then later on as the season progresses.

Rookie of the Year honors would require Warren to struggle a bit and Jackson to fill the holes on both ends of the floor, but if he can accomplish a few rookie year goals like shooting a decent percentage from deep, tackling defensive challenges and posting something like a 15-8-4 stat line, he could legitimately put his name in the ROY debate.

Sure, it’d take underwhelming years from Ball, Smith, Simmons and Fultz, and yes, the Suns’ losing record could very easily take Jackson out of the equation. But the No. 4 overall pick and one of the best two-way players in this draft class can’t be completely excluded from the conversation either, especially if he jumps into the starting lineup.

2. The Suns trade Eric Bledsoe and/or Tyson Chandler

The Phoenix Suns don’t have to trade anyone, and they need as many veteran presences in the locker room as possible for the rebuild. Tyson Chandler certainly provides that and is still surprisingly serviceable as he nears his 35th birthday, while Eric Bledsoe deserves better after committing to this team and being a consistent star during this tumultuous period.

However, both are entirely expendable in the wake of a rebuild, especially since their trade value may never be as high as it is right now.

Bledsoe’s name frequently came up in Kyrie Irving trade rumors as one of the best possible point guards the Cleveland Cavaliers could hope to get back on the open market. Those hypothetical trades never amounted to anything, but Bledsoe’s name has popped up in trade rumors for years now.

Valley of the Suns

Though general manager Ryan McDonough has remained adamant about Bledsoe being safe in Phoenix, it would make sense to trade him now, especially if they can get a young point guard or future draft asset to use on one.

Bled is coming off a career year in which he stayed healthy and averaged 21.1 points, 6.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game. Given his injury history and his age (he’ll turn 28 in December), what’s left of his prime doesn’t coincide with Phoenix’s rebuild project.

Though he loves playing for the Suns, it’d be best for both parties to move Bledsoe for whatever assets they can get now, while also allowing their starting point guard to move on to a more competitive squad. He’s also Phoenix’s most movable veteran, and every day he remains there, the Suns run the risk of his knees giving out again and the opportunity to net an asset being blown.

As for Chandler, he won’t be fetching the Suns much on the trade market, but a team in need of rebounding, rim protection, experience or frontcourt depth could give him a look as the trade deadline approaches.

The fact that he only has two seasons left on his contract also makes him a more plausible trade candidate than last year, when he asked to stay in Phoenix. Chandler loves his young teammates, but said he’d take the summer to contemplate his future in Phoenix, stating he’d prefer the front office added some established veterans in free agency. They did no such thing.

If the Suns are smart, they’ll take what they can get for Bledsoe before he runs the risk of getting hurt again, and they’ll look to move Chandler as the trade deadline approaches.

1. Phoenix tanks for another top-five pick

If Eric Bledsoe/Tyson Chandler are traded, if Josh Jackson and Dragan Bender are getting starter’s minutes and if Devin Booker is hoisting shots until his heart is content, there’s a very good chance the Suns will be near the bottom of the league standings.

Even if Bledsoe isn’t moved, this young team is coming off a 23-win season and probably won’t be much better in 2017-18. Why? Because they’re still so far away from being a playoff squad they have little incentive to start making winning moves over letting the young guys take their lumps.

In the 2018 NBA Draft, which features a loaded top-five that could include as many franchise players, the Suns have their own valuable first round pick, plus a top-seven protected pick coming from the Miami Heat.

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That Heat pick probably won’t be valuable since they’re almost certain to make the playoffs in the East, but another season in the 20-30 win range is almost guaranteed for the Suns, which would place them right on the cusp of one of those top five picks.

The Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets, Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings could all be in that same conversation. But as we saw last season, when Bledsoe was a healthy scratch for the final 15 games of the season and Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight didn’t play after the All-Star break, this front office isn’t shy about tanking when the situation calls for it.

Even without a Bledsoe/Chandler trade, you can expect something similar in 2017-18, especially if the season gets off to another rough start and the losses start piling up early. Barring a drastic leap from Booker, a surprising readiness from Jackson and all the other young pieces coming together with the established veterans, that seems like Phoenix’s unavoidable fate.

While the fans might bemoan an eighth straight year without the playoffs, securing a top-three pick in this year’s draft would be for the best, allowing them to add another blue chip prospect like Luke Doncic or maybe even Tempe native Marvin Bagley III.

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McDonough knows expectations for this young team are going to be low, and he and owner Robert Sarver are on the same page about being patient. You can expect a struggling young team to tank once again down the stretch, hopefully with a top-three pick waiting at the end this time.