Now that we know the lay of the land for the upcoming 2017-18 NBA season, it’s time to sort the league by their various tiers.
After one of the most bizarre summers in NBA history, most of us are still waiting for the dust to settle. With No. 1 picks being moved, superstars trading hands and free agency madness to sort through, the 2017 NBA offseason was like one continuous heat check, sending Twitter into a frenzy with every new WojBomb or ShamsWow.
But now that Kyrie Irving has been moved to the Boston Celtics, the dust storm has finally settled and we can begin to see the oasis that is the 2017-18 NBA season in the distance. With only the drier months of August and September dying out, we’re almost back to basketball.
In that remaining time, it’s worth getting our bearings and trying to make sense of what’s become a constant swapping of all our recognizable NBA landmarks. Chris Paul is with the Houston Rockets. Paul George was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Jimmy Butler is with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Gordon Hayward and Irving are on the Celtics, Isaiah Thomas is on the Cleveland Cavaliers, Paul Millsap is with the Denver Nuggets…you get the idea.
The only domino left to fall is Carmelo Anthony’s departure from the New York Knicks, but at this point in time, we’ve got a pretty good idea of where everyone stands heading into the upcoming season.
As such, it’s time to take a look at the various tiers in the league to sort out the bottom-feeders from the fringe playoff teams, the dark horses from the legitimate title contenders and the possible tankers from the muddled middle ground. We start with the lowest tier in the NBA, The Undesirables.
The Undesirables: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls
As of right now, these have to be the top candidates for the No. 1 pick of the 2018 NBA Draft. Whether by choice or not, the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls won’t have much say in how terrible they are thanks to the way their rosters are constructed.
The Hawks lost Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha this summer, which means they’re losing three starters and four key rotation players. Their best player is now Dennis Schroder, the only one on the roster to ever average 15 points per game in a season during his career.
No offense to newcomers Dewayne Dedmon, Luke Babbitt, Marco Belinelli, Miles Plumlee or the exciting rookie John Collins, but this team is going to be terrible.
As for the Bulls, they were going to be in trouble even if Dwyane Wade wasn’t heading for a buyout, thanks to the Jimmy Butler catastrophe. Once Wade is gone, their best player will either be a recovering Zach LaVine, an underwhelming Kris Dunn, an equally underwhelming Cameron Payne or Robin Lopez.
Here’s hoping youngsters like Denzel Valentine, Bobby Portis, the overpaid Cristiano Felicio and rookie Lauri Markkanen can show enough progress to make the pain worth tuning in for.
The Tank Candidates: Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Brooklyn Nets
These teams enter the season with faint playoff aspirations, needing everything to go right to sneak back into the postseason. More than likely though, they’ll be feeding the young players heavy minutes by February and quietly positioning themselves for a top-heavy 2018 draft class.
The Sacramento Kings have a nice influx of veteran leadership with George Hill, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter, but more than likely, it won’t be enough to lead an exciting but inexperienced group of De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere, Justin Jackson and Bogdan Bogdanovic to the playoffs.
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The Los Angeles Lakers have no reason to tank and are one of the league’s sexier bottom-feeders thanks to the arrival of Lonzo Ball and all the buzz over their 2018 free agency plans, but take all the hype away and this team’s newcomers (Brook Lopez, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and four rookies) probably aren’t good enough to earn L.A. a playoff spot unless Ball and Brandon Ingram make immediate leaps to stardom.
Eric Bledsoe will be back on the court for the Phoenix Suns after being a healthy shutdown at the end of last season, but even another year under Devin Booker’s belt won’t prevent this young core of Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, Tyler Ulis and T.J. Warren from getting heavy developmental minutes. With Bledsoe’s trade value never being higher and Tyson Chandler being another trade candidate, Suns fans need to remain patient and trust #TheTimeline.
Finally, the Brooklyn Nets should be better than last year after adding D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll. A healthy Jeremy Lin and another season of development for Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson helps, but replacing Lopez with Timofey Mozgov isn’t ideal. This team could very well end up with another bottom-three finish in the league.
The No Man’s Land-ers: New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Dallas Mavericks
The New York Knicks, Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks are about to be caught in NBA no-man’s land for the 2017-18 season: Probably not good enough to aim higher than a first round playoff exit if everything goes right, but not bad enough to work their way into prime tank position for a draft class that’s loaded in the top five.
The Knicks added another potential franchise pillar in rookie Frank Ntilikina, but he could be a project, and even another leap from Kristaps Porzingis won’t be enough to compensate for Carmelo Anthony’s possible departure via trade. Brace yourselves for lot of ill-advised Tim Hardaway Jr. jumpers, Knicks fans.
The Magic actually had a quietly great summer under new general manager John Hammond, landing Jonathon Simmons, Marreese Speights and Shelvin Mack on smart deals, but they still lack a surefire franchise star among Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and rookie Jonathan Isaac.
As for the Mavs, Harrison Barnes had a great season and Dirk Nowitzki provided a couple of vintage throwback performances, but unless Dennis Smith Jr. is even better than everyone thinks, Dallas just doesn’t have the horses to challenge for a playoff spot — especially as Nerlens Noel remains unsigned.
The Hot Messes: Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies
These are the teams likely to be trapped in the middle of the draft lottery unless they have some surprises up their sleeves.
The Detroit Pistons are coming off an underwhelming season where not one, but two of their supposed franchise pillars were involved in trade rumors (Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond). Upgrading from KCP to Avery Bradley is huge, but after watching Jackson and Drummond stall out last year, “prove it” seems to be the most apt description for this team’s 2017-18 aspirations.
Following the Paul George trade, it’s abundantly clear the Indiana Pacers did not get enough for their superstar, even with their backs against the wall. Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis aren’t bad players, but they leave Myles Turner and company in a tricky spot between tanking and trying to build around good but not great talent. Blowing it up seems like the way to go here, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening, especially without getting a first-rounder for PG-13.
Finally, the Memphis Grizzlies still have a solid foundation with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, but Big Spain is 32, Conley can never stay 100 percent healthy, Z-Bo, Vinsanity and probably Tony Allen are gone and it feels like Grit-N-Grind is dead. Unless Chandler Parsons finally stays on the court, newcomers Tyreke Evans and Ben McLemore don’t move the needle much.
The Muddled Middle: Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers, Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans
Picking the playoff field outside of the top 4-5 teams in both conferences is pretty much impossible: In the West it’s because everyone is so good, and in the East it’s because everyone is so terrible.
Starting with the West, the Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves and possibly the Lakers, Mavs or Kings will be vying for four playoff spots outside of the West’s four safest bets.
Pelican Debrief
That doesn’t leave much room for error. Can Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum finally defend anyone as the team looks to carry its momentum immediately following the Jusuf Nurkic trade? Will the Jazz be the same without Gordon Hayward after trading for Ricky Rubio, re-signing Joe Ingles and counting on Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and Dante Exum to step up?
Nikola Jokic is a joy, Gary Harris remains underrated and Jamal Murray is going to be good, but does Paul Millsap put the Nuggets over the top in such a loaded Western playoff field? Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are the NBA’s best frontcourt in terms of pure talent, but can they put it together and carry a lackluster supporting cast to the postseason?
Shifting our gaze East, similar questions arise. Are the Miami Heat the team that started the season 11-30, or the one that finished it 30-11? Are they somewhere in the middle? And even if they go .500 again, isn’t that more than enough for a playoff spot in the Leastern Conference?
The Charlotte Hornets‘ point differential indicated they were better than their 36-win season, but will Dwight Howard be able to avoid ruining another locker room like one of his patented farts?
As much fun as the Philadelphia 76ers‘ future looks, Joel Embiid has played 31 games in his first three seasons in the league. Ben Simmmons missed all of his rookie season and Markelle Fultz is just a rookie too. Landing J.J. Redick in free agency was a huge step forward, and playoffs are the understandable expectation, but with so many young pieces, are we getting ahead of ourselves?
Keep an eye on these teams as the most likely to shake up the bottom of each conference’s playoff picture.
The Fun-But-Not-To-Be-Taken-Seriouslys: Minnesota Timberwolves, Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers
You could probably throw the Sixers in this category if their injury history wasn’t so worrisome, but suffice it to say the Minnesota Timberwolves, Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers are three of the NBA’s more intriguing teams heading into 2017-18 — even if they’re not legitimate threats just yet.
The T-Wolves are a popular pick for that fourth or fifth seed in the West, but don’t forget we were high on Tom Thibodeau’s squad last year too. Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson and Jamal Crawford obviously make them a safe bet to make the playoffs, but it’ll take another year or two before we can start buying into them as legitimate contenders.
The same goes for the Bucks, who are basically a more proven version of the Wolves out East. Giannis Antetokounmpo might own the league within the next year or two, but for now, we need to see Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker stay healthy before we start putting them in the same tier as Toronto or Washington.
Finally, there’s the Clippers, who could very well fall out of playoff contention if Blake Griffin gets hurt. But even with Patrick Beverley and Milos Teodosic on board, the prospect of Griffin playing point forward, plus new arrivals like Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams, makes for an intriguing squad. They’ll shoot a ton of free throws, but they might be better than people think.
The Next-Level Challengers: Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors, Oklahoma City Thunder
In a normal season, these teams might be considered dark horse contenders. But in this reality where titans like the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs roam the earth, they could very easily be sent home in the second round.
The Washington Wizards may not have upgraded their bench, but they retained their core, extended John Wall and will be counting on internal development to get to their first conference finals with this group. Following the Kyrie Irving trade, can they supplant the Boston Celtics at the No. 2 team in the East?
On a similar note, the Toronto Raptors were unable to address their biggest areas of need this summer, and will be hoping Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can continue to avoid regression. But with the Wizards and Bucks being on the rise, there’s a good chance this team has already reached its ceiling.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the most potential to leap into the next tier, since the additions of Paul George, Amir Johnson and Raymond Felton will only make a 47-win team even better. A dynamic duo of reigning MVP Russell Westbrook and PG-13 could bump OKC into the top-four out West.
Unfortunately, as much as these teams would stand a puncher’s chance in years past, they’re really just going to serve as a testament to how unbelievably good the true contenders are.
The Would-Be Contenders: San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics
On a similar note, there are two teams that are going to be “disrespected” because they’re technically contenders…without actually being threats to win a championship. Those teams are the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics.
Tuning out the sound of every person in San Antonio raising a pitchfork, there are legitimate reasons for leaving the Spurs outside of the NBA’s elite. Most fans will look to the double-digit lead their beloved Spurs built over the mighty Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, but three-quarters of one game with a healthy Kawhi Leonard did not mean that seven-game series was in the bag, let alone one against an even better Dubs team in 2018.
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While the Dubs got better this summer, the Spurs arguably got worse. They lost Jonathon Simmons, Dewayne Dedmon and David Lee to free agency, Tony Parker won’t be back for months due to injury and Manu Ginobili and Pau Gasol are both a year older.
Kawhi and Dejounte Murray are only going to get better, but after watching LaMarcus Aldridge flounder in the playoffs, almost every other player on the roster is either going to stagnate or get worse in 2017-18. With the Dubs and Rockets taking a step up over the summer, the Spurs were unable to keep pace in their offseason moves.
The Kyrie Irving trade makes the Celtics younger and more stable for the long-term, but it doesn’t necessarily make them better for the upcoming season — at least not in respect to the Cavs, who just added a similar score-first point guard in Isaiah Thomas and a versatile wing in Jae Crowder.
Signing Gordon Hayward is another great step forward, but Boston didn’t address some of its biggest weaknesses — rebounding and defense — this summer. The Celtics are well-built to be a contender once LeBron James finally abdicates his throne, but for now, they remain on the outside looking in.
The Legitimate Title Threats: Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston Rockets
The biggest threats to the Warriors running it back in 2018 are the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets. Though the Spurs can never be classified as an “easy out” in the playoffs, they might not be the second-best team in the West anymore.
With the additions of Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute, the Rockets are set to drastically improve their below-average defense. Though Tucker and Mbah a Moute can be one-dimensional players at times, as long as one of CP3 and James Harden is always on the floor, Houston’s historically high-powered offense will be as potent as ever.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Do the Rockets have the right combination of 3-point shooting, defense and leadership to seriously challenge a powerhouse like Golden State? Only time will tell, but whatever ground they lacked on the Spurs last year, the more than made up for it this summer.
More than likely, the Warriors will be advancing past either Houston or San Antonio to reach their fourth straight Finals, and more than likely, they’ll be heading for a fourth straight meeting with the Cavs.
Trading Kyrie Irving takes away the franchise’s closest thing to a LeBron successor in the event King James leaves in free agency next summer, but that outcome became inevitable when the All-Star point guard requested a trade.
In that regard, new general manager Koby Altman did even better than could be expected, netting Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder to preserve another title run in 2018, while also adding Ante Zizic and a potentially valuable first round pick from the Brooklyn Nets to ground a possible rebuild.
Crowder gives Cleveland a more capable wing to throw at Kevin Durant in another Finals rematch, sparing LeBron the physical toll of defending him on one end and carrying the offense on the other. Assuming IT can get healthy, he should replace Kyrie’s heat checks and 3-point shooting.
Unfortunately, even with the Rockets getting significantly better and the Cavaliers getting marginally better, they’re just not quite on the same tier as the unstoppable, invincible and inevitable reigning champions.
The Inevitable: Golden State Warriors
Maybe the 2018 NBA Playoffs will be more interesting than they were last year, when blowouts, predictable outcomes and one-sided results reigned supreme. Maybe the opening rounds will be more entertaining with a Western bloodbath and an Eastern mad scramble that feels wide open. Maybe the Thunder, Celtics, Spurs, Rockets and Cavs provide us with at least one or two high-stakes series.
But at the end of the day, a Golden State Warriors team with Kevin Durant feels as inevitable to claim the NBA crown as it did last year.
After winning 67 games and cruising to the championship with a nearly immaculate 16-1 playoff record, the Dubs somehow got better over the summer. They gave Stephen Curry the supermax extension he deserved, got a terrific Kevin Durant discount and also managed to retain Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, David West, Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee.
As if this wasn’t enough, the Warriors went out and signed excellent spot-up shooters in Omri Casspi and Nick Young to spread the floor off the bench. Throw in buying their way into the second round to draft Jordan Bell and another year of development for Patrick McCaw, and this dynasty isn’t going away anytime soon.
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Even without all the bench depth and complementary pieces, the Dubs would be head and shoulders above the rest of the pack simply because Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green have a full year under their belts together. The chemistry is only going to get better, and even if the Spurs, Rockets or Cavs put up a better fight in the playoffs, the Warriors are still in a stratosphere of their own.