The Milwaukee Bucks added another high-upside forward in the draft. What are five goals for the rookie season of D.J. Wilson?
The Milwaukee Bucks are one of only a handful of teams in the league without a glaring hole in their starting lineup. At every starting position the Bucks have a young talent, and that’s not even including the recovering Jabari Parker.
That has a few implications for their first-round draft selection. First, it meant that Milwaukee was able to draft based on talent and upside rather than immediate need. This lead to their selection of Michigan forward D.J. Wilson, a big with modern tools and the general resume of a stretch-4.
Secondly, it means that they will not be relying on major contributions from that pick to compete this season. That takes the pressure off the shoulders of a rookie such as Wilson, as he will not be called upon to make or break their season.
It also means that he isn’t stepping into a situation gift-wrapped for his pleasure. He will be a reserve, fighting for rotation minutes and earning his place on a team headed for the postseason. His environment will be geared towards team success, which means if he is not contributing to that goal he should not count on minutes.
As he steps into that environment, what are realistic goals for D.J. Wilson’s rookie season? Could he make an immediate impact, such as point guard Malcolm Brogdon did last season in his rookie year? Or will his development take more time – but potentially lead to even higher heights?
5. Crack the rotation
Giannis Antetokokounmpo is one of the most versatile and athletic players in the entire league, and as he grows into a superstar it’s becoming clear his best NBA position is the 4. Jabari Parker was a dynamic scorer at the 4 before tearing his ACL. Mirza Teletovic will make $10.5 million next season as a stretch-4.
That means there are not simply minutes lying around for D.J. Wilson to step into at the power forward position. While the team has incentive to find a place for him as their first-round pick, that does not mean he will be gifted a place in their rotation.
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The Milwaukee Bucks have proven they aren’t afraid to give rookie contributors minutes if they can be relied upon. Both Malcolm Brogdon and Thon Maker started playoff games last season for the Bucks during their rookie seasons. Head coach Jason Kidd won’t stand on tradition and block first-year players from playing their way into a role.
But Wilson has to prove he deserves a place in the rotation, and quickly. When Parker returns from rehabbing his knee injury the minutes will dry up unless Wilson has proven he deserves them. That probably means stealing minutes from Teletovic, who could be moved at the trade deadline if Milwaukee can find a taker.
Wilson is young, but he has the athleticism and upside to carve out a small role for himself. If he does that early enough, he could be the next rookie Buck to make a postseason impact for the franchise.
4. Get a block and a steal per 36 minutes
The best defensive forwards can combine a variety of skills. From protecting the rim to guarding on the perimeter, hedging on screens or leaping into passing lanes, the ability to fill many roles as the need arises keeps players on the floor and their teams successful. That’s the impact D.J. Wilson must aspire to.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the embodiment of this, with the length of a center and the agility of a guard. He averaged 1.64 steals and 1.89 blocks per game last season, part of leading the Bucks in five major categories (along with points, rebounds and assists). If Wilson can learn from his example, he will be able to quickly carve out a role in this league.
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Wilson has the athletic gifts and skillset to reach that benchmark. In all, 46 players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game did last season, including teammates Antetokounmpo and Michael Beasley. That’s the impact Kidd looks for among his forwards.
Last season at Michigan Wilson easily cleared the benchmark in blocks, as his athleticism allowed him to recover and get high enough to swat away shot attempts. He even blocked a few shots out on the perimeter as his long arms closed the distance to shooters.
He averaged just half a steal per game, and this will be the area he will have to work at. But in a hyper-aggressive Milwaukee scheme Wilson will have the opportunity to succeed in this area. If the rookie can reach those benchmarks he will have shown his defensive impact is not simply potential but reality.
3. Average seven points per game
It is clear that D.J. Wilson will not be the focal point of the offense when he is on the floor. Whether he is paired with Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton at the forward positions, or even deployed alongside center Greg Monroe, his role will be complementary.
Even so, there will be room for Wilson to put the ball into the basket. His shooting ability, if it translates to the NBA, will mean open looks from outside as more gifted teammates drive into the paint and draw in the defense. Knocking down a three-pointer per game gets him almost halfway to seven.
Wilson will also be asked to move off-the-ball, especially when playing with Monroe in bench-heavy units. For example, with Monroe handling the ball at the high post, shooters such as Matthew Dellavedova, Tony Snell and fellow rookie Sterling Brown will space the floor. That leaves space for Wilson to cut to the hoop, and Monroe is a gifted passer to feed him the ball.
Building his way up to a higher-impact role will take time, but in his rookie season Wilson can make contributions as he is able. With his shooting ability and touch around the rim, getting to seven points per game is an attainable and successful goal for his rookie year.
2. Make an All-Rookie team
Last season a Milwaukee Buck took home the hardware, as point guard Malcolm Brogdon won the Rookie of the Year award. In what was considered a weak field, Brogdon beat out Philadelphia 76ers Joel Embiid and Dario Saric to win the award.
Prior to Brogdon, the last Buck to win the award was Lew Alcindor — who later changed his name to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar — back in 1970. Although D.J. Wilson is talented, his role and development curve make it highly unlikely he will have a shot at making it two years in a row for the Bucks.
The opportunity Wilson will have is to make an All-Rookie team. Many of the players who qualify for such teams are high-minute players on bad teams who put up lots of counting stats such as points, rebounds and assists. That will not be Wilson.
But what Wilson can aim for is showing himself to be a reliable two-way contributor for a good team. If the Bucks can rise past an underachieving Eastern Conference and finish with a top 4 or 5 record in the East, and Wilson carves out a consistent role, a spot on the team is not impossible.
1. Contribute in a playoff series win
The Milwaukee Bucks are not an organization caught without an identity, as so many other teams find themselves. They are a young group with a rising superstar that is out to win a playoff series this season, in order to build momentum for contention in the years to come.
D.J. Wilson is not a crucial piece of those plans. The organization has a solid lineup around Giannis Antetokounmpo, with two-way wings such as Khris Middleton and Tony Snell, sharpshooting point guards in Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova, and a cadre of very different big men in Thon Maker, Greg Monroe, and John Henson.
That doesn’t mean they are not open to contributions from elsewhere, and D.J. Wilson could fill a need for the Bucks in the postseason. Last year they were unable to play Mirza Teletovic or Spencer Hawes at the 4 in the playoffs due to defensive limitations in their aggressive scheme. Antetokounmpo soaked up most of the minutes, and head coach Jason Kidd was forced to lean on him for more and more minutes as their first-round series with Toronto advanced.
Wilson could be that player to allow Antetokounmpo to find rest, even in high-pressure situations. If he can prove to the coaching staff he is up to the defensive challenge, Wilson can keep the system flowing and play the 8-10 minutes per game that the Bucks need to keep their star fresh and to win a playoff series for the first time since 2001.
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In seasons to come Wilson will aspire to a greater impact, but this season he just needs to get his feet wet. Hitting reasonable benchmarks on offense and defense, and sticking around until this team either loses in the playoffs or wins the title, will show he has what it takes to justify his selection and to be a force in the league for years to come.