The Milwaukee Bucks took Michigan forward D.J. Wilson with the 17th pick in the NBA Draft. Why was this a poor use of the pick?
After making the playoffs in an unexpectedly successful year, the Milwaukee Bucks found themselves picking just outside of the lottery in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft. While a number of players were rumored to be in consideration, the Bucks ultimately selected D.J. Wilson with the 17th overall pick.
Wilson introduced himself to the national consciousness during the Michigan Wolverine’s surprise run to the Sweet 16 in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. He kept the Michigan offense juiced when the guards struggled to score, and defensively covered for the weaknesses of those around him. For three games on the national stage, he was dynamic.
He joins a team that has its sights set on growth, and a finish that sets it back even further in the draft. With a franchise superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks don’t expect to be in the lottery again anytime soon. That meant that this draft was a key one for getting the best talent at the highest pick.
Was D.J. Wilson the right pick for the Bucks? Was he worthy of the 17th overall pick? And finally, was there better value available that Milwaukee passes on?
The answer is unequivocally no to the first question. Wilson was not the right pick at 17th, especially based on the information we have now. While he may turn into a solid player down the road, the lowest risk and highest reward seem to be with other players.
Why was D.J. Wilson the wrong pick for the Milwaukee Bucks? Here are five reasons the Bucks made a mistake.
5. D.J. Wilson was a one-hit wonder at Michigan
D.J. Wilson had a strong junior season at the University of Michigan, showing off a versatile skill-set. He hit over a three per game, blocked 1.5 shots per game, and turned in an exceptional offensive rating of 123.9.
Over his first two seasons at Michigan, Wilson scored 72 points. Total, over two seasons, Wilson scored just 72 points. In 1991, guard Kevin Bradshaw scored 72 points in a single game, yet Wilson took two seasons to reach 72.
The reality is that Wilson was little more than a bit player for two seasons, playing more than 10 minutes just five times and breaking 20 just once. Only during his junior season did Wilson grow into a role where he saw more dependable minutes – and even then he ranked fourth on the team.
Narrowing the sample size even further, Wilson’s leap from a second round prospect to a first round pick occurred in large part because Michigan won six straight postseason games in the Big Ten Tournament and then the NCAA Tournament. Without success on the biggest stages, Wilson may never have gone as high as he did.
If Wilson’s heightened play at the end of the year is indicative of lasting growth, this may become a smart pick. But if one season of good basketball turns out to be an outlier, it will be one that earned him a larger paycheck than he would have earned otherwise.
4. Skill-set doesn’t equal production
Head coach Jason Kidd has a player type he goes after: long and athletic with defensive upside and offensive room to grow. With general manager Jon Horst taking over the front office, it seems that he will continue the trend as he made the call to take D.J. Wilson in the first round.
Wilson fits the archetype on paper, with plenty of length and a season of highlight blocks to his name. The problem is that Wilson played in a very different system at Michigan, and the success he found both may not be translatable and may be out of reach. One season of above average play does not guarantee more growth.
Drafting a player with a certain skill-set does not always work out smoothly, either. Rashad Vaughn fits the Milwaukee mold perfectly on paper, with his combination of length, shooting and ball-handling. The problem is that when Vaughn hits the court it becomes apparent he doesn’t have the efficiency to be relied upon as a shooter nor the defensive acumen to hang with other professionals. Right skill-set, poor production.
Matthew Dellavedova fit the bill to a T in free agency last season. By signing the Australian point guard to an extended contract, the Bucks added a player who can guard 1s and 2s and knock down an outside shot. But the academic fact is that while he does both of those fairly well, he does neither at an elite level outside of the warm ecosystem of a LeBron James team, and doesn’t bring enough else to the table to be a reliable starter.
Whether D.J. Wilson grows into his bio on paper is yet to be seen. But for a player with so little high-level film, any signs that a player isn’t fully the player he is expected to be is troubling.
3. Similar players looked dynamic in NBA Summer League
An immediate and imperfect test for each team’s draft selections is NBA Summer League, where rookies take the court for the first time as NBA players. While D.J. Wilson did not make a fool of himself, he likewise failed to stand out — while a number of his peers did.
The Bucks cannot be blamed for missing out on players selected before them — Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum and Dennis Smith Jr. all looked incredible in Las Vegas. While Milwaukee hoped Donovan Mitchell would fall to them at 17, he went 13th to the Utah Jazz — and also looked incredible during his time in Summer League.
But among those players available when the Bucks selected Wilson, a number of players stood out. More specifically, if Milwaukee had its heart set on a power forward with range, a number of other players may make the Bucks regret their selection.
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John Collins of Wake Forest University led the nation in Player Efficiency Rating last season as a sophomore, racking up double-doubles left and right. Younger than many of the freshman in this year’s class, he came out in Las Vegas and balled out. Between highlight reel dunks, he scored 15.4 points per game and pulled in 9.2 rebounds per game.
Semi Ojeleye didn’t accrue the raw numbers that Collins did, but he also demonstrated clear defensive chops. Ojeleye has the size to guard inside and the footspeed to guard on the perimeter, and offensively he can score at both levels as well.
Finally, Kyle Kuzma may have been the most impressive player at Summer League not selected in the lottery. The 27th pick of the Los Angeles Lakers, Kuzma excelled alongside Lonzo Ball — and without him — to put up 21.9 points per game on 51.4 percent shooting, including a blistering 48 percent from long range on 50 attempts.
There is still plenty of time for D.J. Wilson to catch up, but the first glimpse showed him to be less impressive than many of his peers.
2. More need for a knockdown shooter
The Milwaukee Bucks are loaded at the power forward position. Their All-NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo is best deployed at the 4. Recent second overall pick Jabari Parker is a monster at power forward but would struggle if moved up or down a position. One of last season’s signings, stretch-4 Mirza Teletovic, is on the books for two more seasons.
Where the Bucks truly could use more talent is with shooters around the perimeter. Tony Snell had a strong season at the 2, but was it an outlier or a sign of a new reality? Off the bench the team has Matthew Dellavedova, Teletovic and little else in the realm of proven shooters — and that is perhaps overselling the players in question.
Milwaukee was not blessed with an abundance of options to pursue shooters in the middle of the draft. The elite shooters — Malik Monk, Luke Kennard — went in the late lottery. But a handful of options were in play, including Terrance Ferguson.
The ultimate 21st overall pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Ferguson projects as a 3-and-D option on the wing. While his playmaking chops are not a strength, he’s a capable catch-and-shoot option with the athletic frame to become a solid defender.
If the Bucks were drafting for fit, then perhaps Ferguson would have been the better pick over D.J. Wilson.
1. Better value available with the pick
Milwaukee has put together a successful stretch of draft picks by targeting not for fit, but value. They have gone for the players with the highest upside and the best path to reaching that upside. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the shining example of that draft strategy, but Jabari Parker, Thon Maker and Brandon Jennings all fit the profile as well.
While D.J. Wilson has upside, there was better value available with the 17th pick. By taking the Michigan forward they took a gamble, but there were gambles on the board with both loftier ceilings and higher floors.
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OG Anunoby is discussed as the “sexy blogger pick” because of his popularity among online basketball outlets. While it was clear NBA teams didn’t value him as highly as draft pundits, he is an athletic freak with the defensive versatility to guard 1-5. If he can develop an offensive game he could be one of the most valuable picks in the draft.
John Collins is a hard prospect to nail down, as his game is a hybrid between an old school post behemoth and an athletic stretch big. But for now his elite college production and highlight-reel Summer League play have brightened his future.
Harry Giles may have been the most polarizing player in the draft. The former No. 1 prospect in his class, multiple knee surgeries have his future in doubt. But for a Milwaukee team confident in its medical staff and willing to swing for the fences, Giles was the perfect pick. If he comes back fully healthy — a realistic “if” — he could be a top-five talent in this draft and might have been a coup for the Bucks at No. 17.
Next: 2017 NBA free agency tracker - Grades for every deal so far
It’s easy to point fingers from the outside, and only a decade of time passing will tell us for sure how Milwaukee did on draft night. But for now, it looks like their selection of D.J. Wilson was a bad pick.