Indiana Pacers: Examining The Frank Vogel Question

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Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /

The Case For Bringing Vogel Back

The best case for bringing Frank Vogel back is a pretty simple one based on the most important thing: results.

Vogel is the second-most winningest coach in Pacers franchise history, behind only Slick Leonard, who coached the team from 1968-80. Vogel also ranks second in win percentage in franchise history, behind Larry Bird.

Vogel has taken the Pacers to the playoffs in five of his six seasons, including two trips to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2012-13 and 2013-14. In that 2013-14 season, the Pacers finished 56-26, the best record in the Eastern Conference.

If the Pacers don't keep Frank Vogel, he'll be unemployed for two, maybe three full hours. The man can coach.
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) May 2, 2016

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The only season in which Vogel has failed to make the playoffs came in 2014-15, when Paul George missed nearly the entire season. Despite the devastating injury to George and various injuries to other key players, the Pacers were still in the playoff hunt up until the final game of the season, finishing with a record of 38-44.

The primary reason for Vogel’s success is his ability to coach a team that defends extremely well.

In the five full seasons since Vogel took over after the team fired Jim O’Brien, the Pacers have finished in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (per ESPN’s Hollinger Team Statistics). The Pacers led the league in defensive efficiency in 2012-13 and 2013-14.

While George and George Hill, both plus defenders, have been staples of Vogel’s rosters, he’s had success developing schemes with players with poor defensive reputations such as Monta Ellis and Jordan Hill. Roy Hibbert was a perennial candidate for Defensive Player of the Year with the Pacers before becoming a bit of an outcast with the Lakers this season.

The point is that while the players have changed, the success on defensive end has remained and that can be largely attributed to Vogel’s defensive brilliance.

Another point for keeping Vogel that goes along with results is that his teams have never underachieved. In fact, the Pacers of the last two seasons have largely overachieved, winning more games than the talent level would be expected to generate.

ESPN’s summer forecast projected the Pacers to win 39 games this season while FiveThirtyEight projected 38 wins. Both scenarios had the Pacers missing the playoffs. Instead, they won 45 games and came extremely close to playing the role of spoiler in the first round.

Taking the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals to lose to the LeBron James-led Miami Heat in 2012-13 and 2013-14 was the team’s ceiling.

Vogel has met or surpassed any reasonable expectations given the talent the front office has given him, so what else could you want from him?

Next: Why Pacers Could Let Vogel Go

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