2016 NBA Playoffs: The Deciding Factor In Each First Round Series

No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers

Exorcising Playoff Demons/Getting To The Foul Line

We’re going to cheat a little bit on this one, since there may be more to this matchup depending on which Paul George shows up. For starters, we need to acknowledge that the 56-win Toronto Raptors should be heavy favorites and bear very little resemblance to the last two Raptors teams that choked away their first round playoff series.

More from NBA

• The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
• Constructing the NBA’s perfect all-under-25 starting five

But…isn’t it kind of worrisome that Kyle Lowry is dealing with a nagging elbow injury and that he’s averaging 16.0 points on abysmal .321/.329/.640 shooting splits over his last 10 games? Wouldn’t it be the most Raptors thing ever to collapse under a barrage of Paul George heat checks, even with DeMarre Carroll returning and rookie Norman Powell playing excellent basketball?

Again, it’d take a lot for the Indiana Pacers to pull off the upset. PG-13 would need to be more like the Paul George who showed up through November — 27.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.6 SPG, 45.8 FG%, 45.1 3P% — as opposed to the one they’ve had since — 22.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 40.7 FG%, 35.1 3P%.

But if that Paul George does show up to cap off a remarkable comeback season, we’ve seen promising Toronto teams clumsily lose home-court advantage early on. I still think this team is different, but would anyone be surprised if it happened again?

However, assuming we’re correct that this Raptors team is ready to exorcise its playoff demons, one other factor could help the Pacers hang around in a series: keeping Toronto — DeMar DeRozan in particular — off the free throw line.

Much has been made of Pacers head coach Frank Vogel’s comments about how the Raptors embellish contact, but he’s not entirely wrong in the case of Lowry and DeRozan. Toronto’s athletic 2-guard gets to the line 8.4 times per game and the Raptors as a whole get to the line more than any team other than the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.

For a Pacers team lacking in depth outside of Myles Turner and C.J. Miles, foul trouble could doom this series from the start if Indiana doesn’t stay disciplined. Toronto still has something to prove, but as long as they take care of business and get to the foul line like they always do, they should be moving on to the next round.

Prediction: Toronto Raptors in 6 games

Next: Thunder vs. Mavericks