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NBA Stats: Age vs. Performance

By Mika Honkasalo

Jan 13, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans power forward Anthony Davis (23) and San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan (21) during the second quarter of a game at the New Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 13, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans power forward Anthony Davis (23) and San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan (21) during the second quarter of a game at the New Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
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Win Shares/48min

Age vs. WinShares
CLICK TO ENLARGE. X-Axis = Age, Y-Axis=WinShare. Graph of Win Shares of NBA Players during the 2013-14 Season vs. Age. Created By: Mika Honkasalo /
  • The simple explanation for win shares is that it measures a single player’s contribution to his teams win total at the end of the season (in a sense wins are distributed). On offense this takes into account the normal counting stats like field goals and assists, and on defense credit is given when the team makes a stop or the player prevents a score. It’s very accurate at estimating win totals (+- 2.74 wins on average, per the version on Basketball-Reference.com). Its weakness is that it takes into account team context a bit too much.
  • Comparing to the PER chart, older players tend to over perform their statistical younger counter parts. The 30-year or older group, that had similar PER numbers as the under-23-year-olds, look like they contribute more to winning than their stats would suggest. Most of those productive vets tend to play on good teams, but there are a strong hints that experienced players can outperform their stats.