2014 NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference First Round Breakdowns
By Shane Young
(1) Indiana Pacers vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks
Indiana: 56-26 overall, 35-6 at home, 21-20 away
Atlanta: 38-44 overall, 24-17 at home, 14-27 away
Season Series: Split 2-2, Hawks +3.75 in scoring margin
What better way to enter the postseason than matching up with a team that walked onto your home floor just two weeks ago and forced fans into a booing frenzy.
The Indiana Pacers, winners of just 10 of their last 23 games after beginning the year 46-13, have drawn the task of the Atlanta Hawks. All the basketball community could hear for the last month has been the commotion surrounding the Eastern Conference’s one seed, and if it was worthy of competing for down the stretch of the season. To some, it’s just a number in the way of a fourth straight NBA Finals trip. To others (such as the Pacers), it’s a necessity.
Indiana needed the assurance that any potential Gamy 7 would be on their home floor. Their skill level doesn’t scream that they need it, as Frank Vogel’s defense is capable of sending home anyone in the conference. It’s the confidence of Indiana that needed the emotional boost a number one seed entails. Don’t believe it? Glance back at the road record for Indiana this season (21-20). Compare that figure with their record at Bankers Life Fieldhouse (35-6, including two wins over Miami). “It doesn’t matter” shouldn’t be connected to a top seed in any sport.
The Hawks have a reason to enter this series with a bit of an advantage. They have nothing to lose, and General Manager Danny Ferry wasn’t even on board with locking up the East’s eight seed. Nevertheless, they’ve been slightly more consistent and a level above the desperate New York Knicks, who blew their chances at stealing the final spot. Atlanta, after nearly falling off the map in late-March by losing six straight, flipped a defensive switch to round out the year, defeating the Pacers, Heat, and Nets within a one week span. Not only were they victors, but allowing just 87 points per game against those three can’t be ignored.
Do they pose a threat to the Pacers and the 24th ranked offense?
When the series shifts to Phillips Arena for Games 3 and 4, it’s an absolute must that Indiana brings the same type of intensity we witnessed during Sunday’s win over Oklahoma City. The Pacers have lost 12 of the last 13 regular season games in Atlanta, but did close out last year’s first round on the Hawks’ home floor.
These birds could soar over Naptown’s championship hopefuls if one man isn’t ready to make a difference.
That’s Roy Hibbert, who’s responsible for the Pacers’ poor front court play in a good chunk of the last 11 games. Since taking it to Indianapolis native Greg Oden on March 26, Hibbert has averaged 8.2 points and 3.7 rebounds per contest while shooting just 30.2 percent. Of the active players for Indiana, Hibbert ranks 13th in “percentage of rebounds per chance.” With a rebounding chance being defined as any rebound taking place within 3.5 feet away of a player, Hibbert grabs just 49.8 percent of his opportunities. To put it into perspective, the 7’2″ center playing 30 minutes per night is rebounding less effectively than Lance Stephenson, David West, and Paul George.
It’s understandable that it’s because he’s not as mobile and explosive as those body types, but he must also understand that his rim protection defense is often resulting in offensive rebounds for the opponents. In reality, the agility and athleticism are tasks for offseason, not the first round. He better be glad Atlanta’s Al Horford isn’t in the lineup.
Mike Greenberg on Pacers:
— Shane Young (@YoungNBA) April 15, 2014
"They act like they have won 9 championships in a row, when in reality they've won a combined total of nothing."
Where the Hawks could frustrate Indiana is their talent around the perimeter. Unfortunately for the Pacers, that stretches to Atlanta’s big men. When you think of Mike Budenholzer’s Hawks, the terms “long ball” and “sharing” come to mind if you’ve watched them closely this season. While the Spurs own the best spacing discipline I’ve seen in about a decade, Atlanta has been able to stretch defenses across the perimeter and play unselfish basketball. Atlanta ranks second in the NBA in assists per game at 24.9, as well as 3-pointers made per game at 9.4. A large part of that can be attributed to floor general Jeff Teague and marksman Kyle Korver, but the outside touches from DeMarre Carrol, Cartier Martin, and Louis Williams make them a tough bunch to keep up with. All five have shot at least 33 percent from deep this season, but that’s not where they’ll hurt Indiana.
The Pacers will find themselves aggravated with the Hawks’ big men, simply because of what they’re going to do to the struggling Hibbert. Center Pero Antic, the Macedonian sensation, loves to pull opposing big men away from the basket with his threat from long range. While Antic doesn’t have a Korver hand by any means, he’s still going to launch the triples. He attempts 3.4 3-pointers per game, and knocked down three in Atlanta’s 19-point win over the Pacers on April 6. What does pulling Hibbert away from the basket necessarily do? Opens up the game for Teague, who should have something to prove to those who doubt his skill against dangerous defenses.
Paul Millsap, who departed Utah in order to join Atlanta in the offseason, took on a bit of a different offensive role when he switched scenery. This season, he reached a career-high in field goal attempts per game (14.1), thus setting a career-high in points (17.9). He’s embraced it, and still found ways to expand his game from purely inside/mid-range to being able to step out. The perimeter shot (something you’ll hear a lot during Hawks conversations) is now a comfortable shot in Millsap’s arsenal, rather than just being a last, desperation option like it was for him in his first seven years as a pro.
Atlanta certainly supplies the Pacers with a headache when it comes to a first round matchup, but these are the types of series that make Paul George click, as he recorded a triple double in last year’s first round vs. Atlanta. With a more explosive an innovative Lance Stephenson coming at them full-force, the Hawks aren’t going to put together two sizzling outside games in Bankers Life Fieldhouse to take the series. That’s probably how many they’ll need to win on the road to upset the top seed.