A storm is brewing in the background of this offseason, and it’s projected to strike the NBA Play-In Tournament at the end of the 2023 regular season.
This story was developed and co-authored through a collaborative effort between Dylan Hunter Carter of Hoops Habit and Ray LeBov of Basketball Intelligence.
The first contributing factor is next year’s NBA Draft lottery, which most analysts consider one of the strongest lotteries in recent memory. Headlined by French sensation Victor Wembanyama and G League Ignite star Scoot Henderson, there are at least a dozen players at the top of the class who are considered potential difference-makers for rebuilding teams.
Next, consider that the league’s Board Of Governors recently made the postseason NBA Play-In Tournament permanent. Only the top six finishers in each conference are guaranteed to make the playoffs. Teams that finish 9th and 10th join the 7th and 8th place finishers in the Play-In round with each eligible to win their way into the playoffs.
ESPN Sources: NBA’s Board of Governors is expected on Tuesday to approve the Play-In Tournament as a regular part of future league seasons. The Play-In had been voted on a year-to-year basis in past two seasons, but support exists to turn it into annual element of NBA structure.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) July 11, 2022
The competitive nature of the NBA Play-In Tournament faces a new threat.
These two circumstances will combine to set up an unusual and potentially troubling storyline for the NBA in 2023. Depending on the state of each eligible team’s rebuild, we could see a nightmare scenario ensue for the league. A team that finishes 7th or 8 might recognize that being in the lottery in such a powerful draft year is far better than the certainty of getting crushed in the first round of the playoffs.
That creates a highly unusual tanking situation. A regular season finish that, prior to the 2020 season, would have certainly secured a playoff appearance no longer does so, making a late-season tank more appealing to some teams than a 7th or 8th seed finish. If that happens, we could see a record number of ‘injured’ starters held out of the NBA Play-In Tournament.
While this possibility may already be on the league’s radar, a PR disaster may ensue to end the regular season.
Promise of the ’23 draft class poses a threat to the NBA Play-In Tournament.
When the NBA decided to flatten the Draft Lottery odds in 2017, the goal was to further deter teams from tanking. This shift had limited success in enticing middle-of-the-pack teams to accept mediocrity instead of ‘resting’ players for a bigger slice of the draft pie. This season, we may see an entirely new dynamic at the end of the 2022-23 season due to the sheer volume of lottery talent headlined by a player of the likes we haven’t seen for quite some time.
The 7-foot-3 Wembanyama is the tip of the iceberg. Few players have embodied the unicorn archetype more than Victor, whose long reach is paired with shocking mobility that puts him in a class of his own. Already, he has showcased potentially threatening 3-point shooting along with outstanding ball-handling ability and fantastic footwork. His approach to the game is cerebral, his fundamentals are sound and when put all together, Wembanyama is a true spectacle for basketball fans around the globe.
Already, teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz — two organizations known historically for competing at all costs — traded All-Star talent for an enhanced shot at Wembanyama. The “Vying for Victor” tankathon is likely to include an unprecedented number of teams.
It might seem foolish to dismantle your team for a 14% chance at one player, but 2023 projects to be an extraordinary draft class with elite young talent materializing from various routes to the NBA. Whether it be through college, international play, the G League, or a startup option like Overtime Elite, there are more ways to showcase talent than ever and it’s helping players develop their game from a younger age.
Take Henderson, the consensus runner-up for the top overall pick. At only 17 years old, Henderson joined the G League Ignite and played against professional competition while being groomed for the NBA. The 6-foot-4 guard is as explosive an athlete as you can find with unique slashing ability, crafty ball-handling and a tantalizing vertical that he puts to use in functional ways.
As the equivalent of a High School senior, Henderson competed in the G League Showcase. He averaged more points than Dyson Daniels, more assists than Jaden Hardy and more steals than MarJon Beauchamp. Later on during the G League Ignite tour, his net rating was greater than any of his teammates who have since been drafted to the NBA. For his impressive passing instinct, destructive first step and functional athleticism, Henderson would compete for the top pick in any draft class.
Following Wembanyama and Henderson is a legion of enthralling up-and-comers who any team would be lucky to add. Draft expert Adam Spinella is a rising star in the scouting world. When asked about the quality of this class, he offered the following comment:
"“There are a few elite-level talents at the top, but the depth and strength of the lottery prospects is what stands out most. Having multiple lottery picks in 2023 can change the direction of a franchise in ways that would not happen in other years. There’s enough legitimate talent to find in the top-five that a race to the bottom isn’t a whiff if you don’t end up with the first or second pick.”"
Few players fit the example better than the Thompson Twins, Ausar and Amen. This pair of 6-foot-7 wings has unique athletic ability which they use to score at the rim in droves, rack up defensive stats and alter their opponents’ shots. Amen appears to be a natural passer while Ausar displayed more scoring instinct, but their games are both worthy of a lottery pick.
Rising up draft boards is Cam Whitmore, a dynamic athlete with a deep scoring arsenal and three-level scoring potential. With extreme verticality, he leverages his opponent’s fear of dunks and silky layups to pour in jumpers from the perimeter. Many of his skills are still raw, but on any given night, Whitmore can dazzle the crowd by taking advantage of the coverage thrown at him. As he establishes himself at one of the best current basketball programs in Villanova, the 6-foot-7 small forward may improve his stock early in 2023.
The same could be said of Duke’s latest recruits, Dereck Lively and Dariq Whitehead, who are ranked first and second on ESPN’s top 100 collegiate prospects respectively. Playing for the college basketball powerhouse will offer a strong training ground for two highly-talented prospects hoping to make the league with a strong freshman campaign.
Each of the following prospects has a serious case to be selected in the draft lottery, and in a less talented class, would be projected higher than their current standing:
- Nick Smith, Guard, Arkansas
- Keyonte George, Wing, Baylor
- Cason Wallace, Guard, Kentucky
- Kel’el Ware, Center, Oregon
- Dillon Mitchell, Forward, Texas
A deep lottery with a top prospect as coveted as Wembanyama will make more teams willing to scrap their plans than in years past. The team with the worst record has not won the NBA Draft Lottery since the new odds took effect in 2019. In the first year with flattened odds, the New Orleans Pelicans jumped from seventh to first and selected Zion Williamson.
Any team that misses out on the Play-In Tournament has a minimum of a 2.4% chance of jumping into the Top Four of a stacked class. Even without taking that leap, there is enough talent that teams can feel strongly about picking any player in the lottery range. So what are the odds of advancing through the Play-In, taking down the No. 1 seed and making a real splash in the playoffs? Probably not as high as the lottery odds you’d get by dropping out.
Which teams would benefit from tanking out of the NBA Play-In Tournament?
It’s official: the NBA Play-In Tournament is here to stay. During a meeting at the 2023 Summer League, the league’s Board of Governors voted to make the eight-team tournament for the final playoff seeds in each conference a permanent fixture of its postseason. Previously agreed upon through a year-to-year structure, the NBA might have set itself up for disaster at the end of the regular season.
As the playoffs grow near, some teams without true title hopes could easily be inclined to drop out of the Play-In with the loaded 2023 draft class looming over the tournament. The Eastern Conference has three teams that might be better off tanking in the Play-In or missing it altogether: the New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards.
By locking former All-Star Bradley Beal into a five-year supermax contract, the Wizards lost nearly all flexibility to make additions via free agency without dumping other important players in the process. Their best path to becoming a playoff threat is by adding talent through the draft. The same can be said of the Hornets, who may recently have lost their second-best player to serious felony accusations, leaving Michael Jordan’s team with a young superstar and a core of good, but not great role players.
The Knicks are a different case study. Any postseason action at Madison Square Garden is sure to bring in revenue, and considering the Knicks’ Governor, James Dolan also owns the area, this team might opt to compete no matter what. Their fans could be talked into it as well. The electrified air that consumes Midtown Manhattan when the Knicks are in the playoffs is enough to propel the fanbase’s unreasonable hope of a miracle. Despite all of these factors, it’s not actually the best course of action. New York would still be better off nabbing an elite lottery talent and building its core rotation to eventually lure a big-name free agent to town.
Next up in the East are the Atlanta Hawks — a team that should, in theory, make it into the Playoff mix. However, one major injury to a star player could derail their seasons; effectively thrusting them into the Play-In mix. This could be the team’s last chance to add a lottery talent after giving up much of its draft capital to acquire All-Star Dejounte Murray from San Antonio.
Things are more complicated in the Western Conference. There appear to be four teams firmly in the tanking territory: the Spurs, Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets.
Like the Knicks in the East, the Sacramento Kings will be a unique case study in the West. Although the team has made acquisitions suggesting they will compete for a Play-In spot, would reaching the playoffs be better than continuing to build a cohesive roster through the draft?” Previously in this category, Utah fully committed to overhauling its roster by trading All-Star Donovan Mitchell months after shipping Rudy Gobert to Minnesota.
Considering all these factors, teams like Portland, Indiana, Dallas, Washington, New York and Atlanta might finish 7th or 8th, but conclude that higher lottery odds are more beneficial than a first-round playoff elimination. Beyond this group are seven more teams already headed toward the lottery: Charlotte, Detroit, Orlando, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Houston and now, Utah.
With all of these teams walking the line between the NBA Play-In Tournament and the draft lottery, the league might be in trouble toward the end of the regular season. This potential “black swan” of a historically potent lottery may have a damaging impact on the Play-In. Barring significant injuries, we have a good idea of title-contending teams that are unlikely to be in this discussion.
Likewise, there are a handful of teams whose most likely positioning will be serious contenders for winning the “Vying for Victor” Wembanyama tankathon. Depending on which of the remaining teams finish between the 7th and 10th seed in their respective conference, a possible nightmare scenario could ensue with the league’s competitive spirit in the balance.
Tanking out of the NBA Play-In Tournament hurts the regular season product.
If a team stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity should finish the regular season in 8th place, for example, should we expect that it would try to win a playoff spot to face near-certain devastation from a vastly superior 1st place team? On the flip side of the coin, this team could participate in arguably the strongest and deepest lottery in recent memory.
While it would take a huge dose of luck for a 9th or 10th place to have a realistic chance to draft Victor after losing the Play-In, most draft experts consider it likely that just getting into the lottery will yield an outstanding prospect. If teams like the Pacers or Hornets find themselves in the 7th or 8th seed, they could suddenly discover that four of their starters are ‘too injured to play.’ Surely, the thought of getting a star in the lottery is preferable to being swept in the first round.
With offseason improvement, a team like the Kings might be a realistic NBA Play-In Tournament candidate. Sacramento’s leadership has declared its intention to do all it can to break its nearly unfathomable 16-year streak of not making the playoffs, saying they “owe a playoff finish to our fans.” Would they want to impair their rebuild by making the Playoffs instead of losing the Play-In against a 7th or 8th seed for a chance to draft a future star?
It would be unseemly and unfair to a team successfully implementing a smart rebuild to miss out on adding a potentially impactful lottery pick because a superior team chooses to avoid the playoffs despite their better regular season finish. Imagine the lower team’s fan reaction if the higher ranked team tanks the Play-In and then also defies the odds to move up in the draft.
It’s worth asking: have NBA Commissioner Adam Silver or the Board of Governors contemplated these circumstances?
If so, they must consider possible remedies, because the look of various late-season tank jobs is not something the NBA would even docilely embrace.