Oklahoma City Thunder have a low rated projection from 2017 NBA Draft

The Oklahoma City Thunder draft did not pan out well in ESPN insider Kevin Pelton’s projection system.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have an important offseason ahead of them. They have to find a way to improve the roster around their MVP, Russell Westbrook. The first chance the team had to do that was in the 2017 NBA Draft.

The Thunder had the 21st selection in the draft. Based on the history of the 21st pick, it is a difficult spot for a team to be picking at if it wants to find a difference-maker. The Thunder have picked here twice — once in OKC and once as the Seattle SuperSonics — and bombed each time.

The Thunder selected Mitch McGary and Craig Brackins, who played a combined 69 games in the NBA.

Michael Finley is the cream of the crop for players selected 21st, but there has also been serviceable players selected in that spot. Ryan Anderson and Rajon Rondo have carved out solid careers. Boris Diaw has excelled at times, as well as bench dynamos such as Ricky Davis and Nate Robinson.

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The Thunder would be ecstatic receiving production near that level from the 21st pick and are hoping that the third time is the charm this year.

With the 21st pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, the Thunder selected shooting guard, Terrance Ferguson. Ferguson is a high risk, high reward selection, which led to decent draft grades.

On the positive side, Ferguson fits the mold of the type of wing player the Thunder are looking for. His strengths could really help Oklahoma City, as he profiles as a good 3-and-D guy. He has a solid stroke from deep, and the length and athleticism to be a difference-maker defensively.

But there are a lot of risks involved too. Ferguson did not attend Arizona last year, instead deciding to play overseas for Adelaide in Austrailia. The results were not great, as Ferguson struggled to produce. In addition, there have been some knocks against how hard he plays. He will also need to add a lot of strength to hold up on the wing in the NBA.

In theory, Ferguson will help the Thunder. Spacing is important when you have a ball-dominant player such as Westbrook that gets to the basket so easily and creates for himself and teammates. But, Ferguson has a lot of growing to do, which is partly why some people aren’t as high on the selection as others.

One of the people not high on the Thunder’s draft was ESPN‘s Kevin Pelton. Pelton had consensus projections done for all of the prospects in the draft. Pelton combines a stats-only projection with Chad Ford’s big boards to project the Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) for each player in the first five years of their career.

Based on that, and where players were selected, Pelton is able to give a WARP number to each team’s draft class. The Los Angeles Lakers received the highest mark. The Thunder were on the opposite side of the spectrum.

The Thunder came in 26th in Pelton’s rankings. Only the Sacramento Kings and Boston Celtics were worse; the Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards were not ranked since they did not make any selections. Here is what Pelton had to say about the Thunder’s ranking.

"“The Thunder surprised everyone by taking Tulsa native Terrance Ferguson at No. 21 after Ferguson spent a year out of high school playing in the Australian NBL.“Ferguson’s translated statistics were dismal, but I’m willing to discount them to some extent because of the unusual transition he faced playing overseas. I don’t think Ferguson was a huge reach where he went, though I think other wings (Anunoby and Ojeleye) are more certain contributors.”"

When grading the Thunder’s draft, the other prospects available factored into lowering the grade, just as Pelton points out. There were other prospects, such as OG Anunoby and Semi Ojeleye, that projected better than Ferguson. They both have 3-and-D potential, just like Ferguson, but would have been able to contribute those skills sooner.

Anunoby is recovering from a knee injury, but he was looked at as a lottery pick before the injury. He is the highest upside 3-and-D guy in this year’s class. Ojeleye would provide production soonest, as he is the most NBA-ready of the three.

Next: 2017 NBA Draft Grades for all 30 teams

Oklahoma City is swinging for the fences with Ferguson. Selecting him was a high-risk, high-reward proposition. They are hoping that he can reach his potential, but it will take some time. The Thunder passed on players that looked to be safer picks, and have to hope that the Ferguson selection does not backfire on them.

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