Houston Rockets: Poor Shooting Could Doom Playoff Chances

The Houston Rockets have struggled from beyond the arc recently, a trend that could doom their playoff chances if it isn’t reversed.

When someone mentions the Houston Rockets, the first thing you think about is the high-powered offense. Even more so, you think about three-pointers, and rightly so. It’s no secret that the Rockets’ offense revolves around their three-point shooting.

After all, the Rockets attempt more than 40 threes per game, an NBA record.

Of course, the Rockets have loved the three-pointer since Daryl Morey took over as general manager and James Harden was acquired.

However, after the offseason hiring of Mike D’Antoni and the signings of Ryan Anderson, and Eric Gordon, Houston began bombing threes like it was nobody’s business.

Well, so far the plan of attack has worked brilliantly for the Rockets, as they own the second-best offense in the league. That offense has propelled them to the third-best record in the league at 54-27, something that no one expected heading in to the season.

Houston Rockets /

Houston Rockets

However, questions have arisen regarding the potential playoff success that would result from the Rockets relying so much on their shooting.

After all, shooting comes with relatively high variability, meaning one night the Rockets can’t miss from beyond the arc and the next night they can’t seem to touch the rim on their shots.

This variability makes the Rockets one of the more fascinating playoff teams, as they could conceivably lose in the first round yet on the other end challenge the Golden State Warriors for a spot in the NBA Finals.

Let’s take a look at recent trends related to the Rockets’ shooting to see where the team is performing on one of their most important shots.

For the season, the Rockets attempt (40.1) and make (14.3) the most three-pointers per game in the entire league. However, the Rockets are only 15th in three-point percentage (35.8 percent) over the course of the entire season.

When the Rockets ran off a 24-8 record over November and December, the team shot 38.1 and 38.3 percent respectively from beyond the arc. However, since December, the team has shot:

33.2 percent in January
35.1 percent in February
34.9 percent in March and
32.5 percent in April

In fact, since March 1, the Rockets are just 21st in the league in three-point percentage. Three-point shooting plays a crucial role in the Rockets’ offense, and it’s impact on the team’s record can be seen relatively easily.

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In wins, the Rockets have shot 38.8 percent on threes. However, in losses, the Rockets shot 29.5 percent on threes.

Looking forward to the playoffs, the Rockets will be facing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round. The Rockets won the regular season series 3-1, but the first three games were decided by a total of seven points.

Against the Thunder this season, the Rockets shot 37.5 percent on three-pointers. However, that percentage was severely improved by the Rockets 51.3 percent shooting game from beyond the arc against the Thunder on March 26.

At home against the Thunder the Rockets shot 44.9 percent on threes. However, in Oklahoma City, the Rockets shot just 30.5 percent on threes.

The Rockets certainly have the shooters capable of making Oklahoma City uncomfortable, especially because the Thunder play two traditional bigs that aren’t comfortable guarding the perimeter.

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In order for the Houston Rockets to achieve sustained playoff success, they will need to maintain above average three-point shooting. As a result of their high attempt rate, it’s likely that if they catch fire from beyond the arc, a Western Conference Finals berth is more than likely.

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