The offseason isn’t far off, which means it’s time to start wondering where the best players available during 2017 NBA free agency will call home next season.
The regular season is just about in the books. For almost half of the league, the offseason has essentially already begun. While the others are busy preparing their playoff runs, the 2017 NBA free agency period has to be looming large for those that didn’t earn a trip to the postseason.
While not an overly exciting free agency class, there are a number of big names who could be available when the festivities tip off.
The problem with this class is most of the superstars who could potentially be available (via declined player options) are expected to re-sign with their current teams. As we’ve seen in the past, though, things can change in a heartbeat.
Kevin Durant proved last offseason that superstars can opt to take their talents elsewhere. That means that, hypothetically, a number of the NBA’s biggest names could be available in the coming months.
Don’t, however, get your hopes too high on seeing players such as Stephen Curry or Chris Paul swapping teams in 2017.
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Either way, it should be an interesting free agency period that could see a few teams improve their title chances with an impact signing or two.
With that in mind, here are my early predictions for where the Top 15 free agents will sign during 2017 NBA free agency. Be forewarned that many of the names on this list will likely be re-signing–that’s the way it goes in this league.
15. Nerlens Noel, C, Dallas Mavericks (Restricted)
Where he will sign: Dallas Mavericks
Especially with the weak center class, I don’t expect there to be a ton of movement at the position. The top options are likely to stay put, and that’s exactly the case with Nerlens Noel. At this point, the odds are in favor of the young big man remaining in Dallas.
The Mavericks gave up a first-round pick and two quality players to acquire Noel. While I wouldn’t call it a king’s ransom or anything of that nature, there’s a very good chance Dallas isn’t going to be willing to let him go after making that deal.
They see him as a building block, and will do what’s necessary to keep him in town.
Now don’t think Noel won’t receive interest if he’s available when free agency opens. Although there aren’t a ton of teams in need of a starting-caliber center, the ones that do should show heavy interest in the former top pick.
Noel is a tremendous (albeit injury-prone) talent with the potential to emerge as one of the best paint protectors in the NBA.
Dallas has some of the pieces in place to be taken seriously in the near future. While Noel is no superstar, he can bring a young, athletic presence to the frontcourt that can tie this whole lineup together.
He’s a tremendous asset for the future, which is why the Mavericks aren’t going to let him walk.
14. Dwyane Wade, SG, Chicago Bulls (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: Denver Nuggets
There’s a very good chance Dwyane Wade sticks around in Chicago after returning to his old stomping grounds last offseason. However, with the way things have gone in 2016-17, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he decided to up and move again.
Since Wade joined the Bulls, things haven’t gone well for the franchise. They failed to live up to their contender expectations amidst an ugly season characterized by inner turmoil and chemistry issues.
For a future Hall of Famer like Wade, I’m sure that’s not the situation he wanted to be in when he originally decided to sign.
Yes, the Denver Nuggets aren’t exactly a perfect landing spot for Wade. However, with Danilo Gallinari potentially leaving this offseason, they’re going to need a new scorer who can do serious damage out on the wing.
Wade fits the bill, and the Nuggets have the cap space to bring him aboard at essentially whatever price he wants.
Denver has the makings of a contender with some excellent young prospects like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Adding a key veteran or two to the mix may just be what the club needs to get over the hump.
Wade seems like the right guy to take this fringe playoff team and turn them into one worth taking seriously.
13. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons (Restricted)
Where he will sign: San Antonio Spurs
Every year it seems, the San Antonio Spurs pull off a big, underrated free agent addition despite their lack of cap space. I wouldn’t expect anything different in 2017, especially considering this intriguing class of free agents.
So why not go out and grab one of the NBA’s top young 3-and-D players? Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a restricted free agent, but it’s unclear how much the Pistons are willing to spend to keep him in Detroit.
While they’d hate to see him go for nothing, there were rumors he was being shopped leading up to the 2017 trade deadline.
If it helps make things work from a financial standpoint, the Spurs can even work out a sign-and-trade for Caldwell-Pope. The move allows them to secure a building block for an aging roster, without parting with too much to get it.
More than anything, I just love the fit here. Caldwell-Pope’s tough, defensive-minded style of play fits the Spurs perfectly. Although the need at shooting guard isn’t huge, a potential departure of Jonathon Simmons could make this move all the more necessary.
Plus, it’s not like Manu Ginobili has tons of gas left in the tank.
12. Serge Ibaka, PF, Toronto Raptors (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: Toronto Raptors
When (or if) Serge Ibaka hits the open market this offseason, there will be a number of potential suitors. A big man who can own the boards and possesses range is a hot commodity in today’s NBA. Unfortunately, I find it hard to believe he leaves Toronto.
The Raptors gave up a decent amount to take Ibaka off the Orlando Magic’s hands before the deadline. Parting with Terrence Ross and a first-round pick isn’t a price Toronto paid for a short-term lease.
There’s just no way they made that trade without a plan to keep Ibaka in Canada for at least another full season.
Right now, Toronto has the cap space to get a new deal in place for Ibaka. He’s had an up-and-down time with the Raptors since the trade, but obviously provides tremendous value with his versatility and stretch-4 skill set.
As inconsistent as he can be, he gives this team the dominant presence at power forward they’ve long been looking for.
Barring a postseason meltdown or Ibaka’s insistence on taking his talents elsewhere, look for him to return in 2017-18. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him re-signed without giving other teams an opportunity to make their pitch.
11. George Hill, PG, Utah Jazz (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: Utah Jazz
Since landing with the Jazz, George Hill has solidified his status as an upper-echelon point guard. While I wouldn’t go as far as calling him a superstar, Utah has absolutely enjoyed his presence on the way to their first division title since the 2007-08 campaign.
Seeing how well this past season has gone, why would Hill want to change it up? Although Utah is going to be tight on cap space with re-signing Gordon Hayward being a top priority, they should be able to sign him to a deal that fits his fancy.
I honestly don’t think he wants to be anywhere else at this point.
I’m sure other teams will give his agent a ring if he hits the open market. With the importance of having a strong point guard in today’s NBA, Hill would be a hot commodity.
However, considering the progress the Jazz have made this season, I believe he’ll want to return and see how much further they can get with another year to mesh.
When it comes down to it, I don’t see the Jazz letting their core fall apart this offseason. If they’re going to spend whatever it takes to re-signing Hayward, they shouldn’t scoff at the idea of paying Hill as well. The only way he gets away is if Utah simply decides he isn’t worth the asking price.
10. Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Miami Heat
By all accounts, Danilo Gallinari is ready to get out of Denver. The team tried to move him prior to the trade deadline, but obviously failed to do so. That’s why it’s very likely he declines his player option for the 2017-18 season and tests the waters this offseason.
While the Heat aren’t exactly a sure-fire contender, Gallinari could be lured by their mix of money and need for more reliability on the wing.
He’s proven over the last few seasons that he’s a dynamic scorer when on his game, and can bring that deadly shooting presence to an offense that could absolutely use it.
Depending on what the future holds for Chris Bosh and Dion Waiters, the Heat could soon have more than enough money to lure Gallinari to South Beach.
While I wouldn’t go as far as saying it’s going to take a max deal to get him under contract, I don’t see Miami having trouble meeting his financial demands.
The loss of Dwyane Wade left a big hole in this roster, especially from a shot creator standpoint. While Gallinari isn’t the superstar the Heat would love to bring aboard, he fills a need and gives them a serious scorer with plenty of years left in his legs.
9. Jrue Holiday, PG, New Orleans Pelicans (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: New York Knicks
When healthy, Jrue Holiday is one of the better point guards in the NBA. Since returning to the New Orleans Pelicans lineup after missing the first 12 games of the season, he’s made an undeniable impact that will certainly make the franchise eager to bring him back in 2017-18.
Unfortunately for the Pelicans, I don’t see that happening. Holiday is an outstanding talent when he’s actually on the court, possessing a terrific combination of scoring, playmaking and defense to elevate a starting lineup.
With several teams in need of a new point guard, Holiday will have several opportunities to see if the grass is greener elsewhere.
New York seems like an ideal landing spot, assuming the Knicks don’t waste their cap space on the washed-up Derrick Rose. Holiday would immediately step in as the starting point guard, bringing more firepower to an offense with more potential than it often displays.
I also like this fit because it unites Holiday with his younger brother, Justin. The two can join forces on a team that has the talent on paper to be a contender.
I think having Holiday in the mix can tie this offense together nicely, allowing players such as Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis tp better utilize the skills they bring to the table.
8. Otto Porter Jr., SF, Washington Wizards (Restricted)
Where he will sign: Washington Wizards
Let’s not pretend there won’t be significant interest in Otto Porter Jr. this upcoming offseason. He’ll be coming off a breakout 2016-17 campaign during which he asserted himself as a rising star out on the wing.
Even while playing alongside stars John Wall and Bradley Beal, Porter has blossomed as an offensive sparkplug. His effectiveness when shooting has skyrocketed, and he’s still playing tough defense on the other end. It’s all starting to come together for the former No. 3 overall pick.
That’s why the Wizards simply can’t afford to let him go, especially for nothing. Porter is a restricted free agent this offseason, so Washington will have the ability to match any offer he receives.
Chances are some team is going to be brave enough to sign him to a max offer sheet, forcing the Wizards’ hand.
It’ll take some financial maneuvering, but D.C. should be able to get him under contract. They don’t project to be significant players during free agency, so finding a way to keep Porter from walking away should be the Wizards’ top priority this offseason.
7. Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Denver Nuggets
Despite the (hypothetical) addition of Wade, the Nuggets aren’t done. Based on their activity leading up to the trade deadline, this is a team looking to do whatever it takes to win in the near future. They have no interest in trusting the process at this point in time.
More importantly, they need another front court power who can complement Nikola Jokic. The young international star enjoyed a ridiculous rise this past season, but it doesn’t appear Kenneth Faried or Mason Plumlee is his running mate of the future.
Enter a talent like Paul Millsap, who many consider on the verge of superstar status.
While Jokic is more of the offensive force, Millsap ups the ante on the defensive side of the court. That’s not to say he can’t make a big impact on offense as well–he provides an exceptional spot-up shooting presence in the front court. That seems to work perfectly for this Nuggets lineup.
I’m a firm believer Denver is in win-now mode after attempting to unload the unnecessary weight back in February.
The signings of Wade and Millsap would give them an outstanding starting lineup, especially if one of their young guards can unlock their full potential during the 2017-18 season.
6. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Philadelphia 76ers
I know this would be quite the shocker, but crazy things happen pretty much every offseason. The Raptors will do everything in their power to convince Kyle Lowry to return in 2017-18, but their efforts will prove unsuccessful as the star point guard takes his talents home.
Lowry was born and raised in Philadelphia. There’s been speculation that he’d love to join the Philadelphia 76ers in hopes of helping his hometown team get back on track.
Especially with things starting to come together with excellent young talent like Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lowry take his talents back to the United States.
So why not make it happen? Chances are he isn’t going to win a ring with Toronto, even with the recent moves they’ve made. So instead of hanging around north of the border, he can join the 76ers in hopes of helping them earn the contender status the “Process” was supposed to yield.
As we all know, the 76ers could use an influx of talent at the point guard spot. T.J. McConnell simply isn’t going to keep cutting it. Lowry taking over as the facilitator of this Philadelphia lineup would ensure the franchise’s arrow is pointed upward.
5. Gordon Hayward, SF, Utah Jazz (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Utah Jazz
Let’s be honest–the Jazz simply aren’t going to let Hayward get away for nothing. Assuming he declines his player option for 2017-18, I’d expect a new deal to put in place not long after. There’s just no way Utah let’s their future outlook suffer such a huge setback.
Hayward is the glue holding this Jazz team together. Since emerging as their superstar, he’s developed into a do-it-all playmaker who is the go-to guy on the offensive end. Based on what we’ve heard, the team isn’t going to hesitant to offer him a max deal this offseason.
Assuming that’s the case, Hayward should accept and be the face of this franchise again in 2017-18. Teamed with Hill, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, he’s helped this Utah team return to relevance in a big way.
While they may still be a few pieces away from true contender status, this group of rising stars has all the makings of a team worth keeping an eye on.
One way or another, Hayward will get a shiny new max contract this offseason. Unfortunately for any other hopefuls (including the Boston Celtics), that contract should be with the Jazz. They’d be stupid to let him escape after six seasons of tearing it up in Salt Lake City.
4. Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Los Angeles Clippers
Yes, another superstar staying put. I apologize, but this will be a theme during 2017 NBA Free Agency. Then again, it’s been a theme during every recent offseason as players simply decline their options to cash in on the increasing salary cap.
I wouldn’t, however, be surprised if Chris Paul didn’t at least hold a couple of meetings with a few contenders looking for an upgrade at point guard. It’s no secret the Clippers’ championship window is closing.
I don’t think it’s going to get any easier next season with limited cap space and no 2017 draft picks available.
In the end, though, CP3 seems content in Los Angeles. Unless he does the unthinkable and joins the Lakers (unlikely), I just don’t see a scenario developing into which he ditches the bright lights of Hollywood.
Instead, he’ll cash in on one or two more big paydays with the Clippers and call it a career a few years down the road.
Paul is still one of the top point guards in the NBA despite his 31 years of age. Still, he’ll get paid big during free agency when he inevitably declines his player option. Don’t get your hopes up of anyone other than the Clippers being the team that’s dishing out that money.
3. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Boston Celtics
As I’ve already mentioned, the Clippers’ championship window is quickly closing. Their roster isn’t getting any younger, they don’t have many draft assets, and their depth can be underwhelming at times.
That’s part of the reason why Blake Griffin could actually take his talents elsewhere this offseason.
The other part is that Los Angeles already tried to trade him. There were nonstop rumblings leading up to the trade deadline that Griffin could be had for the right price.
Although a swap never came to fruition, the Celtics were believed to have made a serious push for the uber-athletic big man.
Now that they can get him for nothing, Boston should be all in on signing Griffin once he’s declined his player option. They can make the cap space necessary to get him under contract, and he’d be a tremendous addition to their lineup.
Especially with Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko set to be free agents, the Celtics could also use more firepower in the front court.
With Griffin at power forward and Al Horford manning the 5 spot, the Celtics would be nearly unstoppable. I would also imagine Isaiah Thomas would love throwing alley-ops to the former No. 1 overall pick.
Considering the alleged interest from both sides and the Clippers’ waning chances of winning a ring, this just makes too much sense.
2. Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (Unrestricted)
Where he will sign: Golden State Warriors
It’s always interesting to imagine players like Stephen Curry jumping ship and taking on a new challenge. Heck, Durant did it only a year ago, so it’s not completely out of the question for a superstar to sign elsewhere during free agency.
However, in the instance of Curry, I just don’t see that happening. He broke out with the Golden State Warriors, has won two MVPs and one ring with the Warriors and appears completely happy with his situation. So why would he mess that up by spurning them during free agency?
The only situation I could see him entertaining the idea of leaving is he wins this year, and decides he needs a new challenge. He’s already asserted himself as one of the best in the game with all of the awards and a championship.
Although he was born in Ohio, Curry spent most of his life in North Carolina while his father was playing with the Charlotte Hornets. Maybe a trip back to Charlotte could be in his future?
Unless everyone bails this offseason (i.e. Durant, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston), there’s no reason for Curry to leave. The Warriors can give him the most money and a terrific opportunity to keep winning rings. Don’t expect Curry to even listen to other offers when the time comes.
1. Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors (Player Option)
Where he will sign: Golden State Warriors
Depending on how the next couple of months go, there’s going to be a lot of speculation on where Durant is headed. Most believe he’ll stay with the Warriors, especially if they earn KD his first ring during the postseason.
However, as we all know, Durant can be a bit unpredictable. He shocked the basketball world a year ago by joining the Warriors, earning a lot of criticism in the process. Could he turn the NBA on its head again in 2017 by uprooting his life and joining a different team for the second offseason in a row?
It wouldn’t be as crazy as you would think. Even if the Warriors did win it all, Durant could see it as checking a box off his to-do list. If that were the case, he could opt to join the Wizards, his hometown team that many thought he’d sign with last year.
At this point, though, a return to the Oklahoma City Thunder seems highly unlikely.
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When it all comes down to it, I don’t see Durant leaving the Bay Area–at least not yet. He’s enjoying an abundance of success with the Warriors, and is on the verge of securing his first title after numerous letdowns earlier in his career. My guess is he’ll stick around for another year or two before re-evaluating his situation.