4th Quarter Woes Hurting The Philadelphia 76ers

 During their recent road trip, the Philadelphia 76ers made a great impression with their competitive play. However, their struggles down the stretch of games ultimately proved costly.

The Philadelphia 76ers completed their Western Conference road trip with a 1-3 record. However, their win-loss record could easily have been much more impressive.

Over the four games, the Sixers excelled during the first three quarters of each game. They shot 48.1 percent from the field and were a +26 during these quarters. They were exceptional in particular during the third quarters of this stretch. The Sixers had a +7.3 point differential during their third quarters, which ranked second in the league during this span.

As a result of these numbers, the scoreline to commence the fourth term of each game was as follows:

• 76ers vs Portland Trail Blazers: 78-76
• 76ers vs Los Angeles Clippers: 79-75
• 76ers vs Los Angeles Lakers: 93-85
• 76ers vs Golden State Warriors: 90-78

As can be seen, the Sixers were in a winning position each game heading into the final period. However, it was only their game against the Lakers that saw them prevail, 118-116. In order to explain the Sixers’ fourth quarter failures, a number of factors need to be addressed.

One area in which the Sixers have featured among the league leaders all season has been the PACE factor –  which represents the number of possessions per 48 minutes. Over the course of the season, the Sixers have the sixth highest PACE with 100.98 possessions per 48 minutes.

During this road trip, their PACE over the first three quarters of each game was profound. The average for the first half per game over this span was 104.93. The third quarter average was around the same at 104.38. Over the course of a season, these numbers would comfortably lead the league.

The fourth quarter average saw this numbers plummet to 97.36.

The Warriors’ game was most indicative of this decline. Despite head coach Brett Brown imploring the team to push the play at every opportunity, it just wasn’t happening.

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The Sixers are a young team. The Warriors have the league’s best record. And when the home crowd sensed their team making a push early in the fourth term, they certainly made their presence felt. And this only exacerbated the problems encountering the Sixers.

The Sixers shot just 6-of-20 from the field, including 1-of-6 from three, in the final period for just 14 points. The problem was, given their PACE decline, how long it was taking to get into their offense. When the Sixers attempted a field goal with between 15-24 seconds left on the shot clock, they shot 3-of-4 from the field. They hit just 3-of-16 with less than 15 seconds left on the clock, naturally when the Warriors’ defense was more set.

Compare this to the first quarter of the same game, when the Sixers shot 14-of-25 from the field for 34 points. During that quarter, the Sixers managed to nail 7-of-8 from the field with between 15-24 seconds left on the clock. Getting quality shots earlier in the possession is naturally going to put the defense on its heels, and hence make it much easier for the offensive team.

Unfortunately for the Sixers, this was the consistent theme throughout the recent road trip.

Head coach Brett Brown laid out his feelings post the Warriors game:

"“It’s a classic case of us needing the ability to execute on the road in a fourth period. We’ve said that all along, that fourth periods are different. It hurts, it should hurt. We put in the time. We were in a position on the road to get a great win. We give Golden State credit. I think that Timmy (Luwawu-Cabarrot) and Dario (Saric) and our young guys will learn from this, but it stings, and it should sting. I’m very happy and proud of our guys for the road trip we just finished.”"

One highlight from the trip was the play of Jahlil Okafor. The second year center/forward has struggled for playing time and form due to the presence of rookie Joel Embiid, and the recently departed Nerlens Noel.

Over the four-game road trip, Okafor averaged 18.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 25.0 minutes per game. This included hitting 56.9 percent from the field and 89.5 percent from the free-throw line.

With this in mind, coach Brown was heartened with Okafor’s performances:

"“He’s amazing to me….His heart and his head are in the right place. He’s been empowered again, and he’s sort of more in the limelight.”"

The only curious part of Okafor’s road trip was his lack of playing time down the stretch of games, particularly against the Warriors. The main knock on Okafor has been his lack of execution and effort on the defensive end. But over these four games, the Sixers allowed 112.7 points per 100 possessions with Okafor off the court and just 100.9 when he was on the floor.

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Moving into the final stretch of the season, Okafor will certainly be looking for greater opportunities to increase his confidence for the following season. Per-36 minutes on this road trip, Okafor posted 27.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.2 steals and 1.8 blocks. These numbers, combined with encouraging recent numbers on the defensive end, should ensure that some additional court time is warranted.

But like many teams, success on the road can be greatly decided by the direction of the starting point guard. And in the Sixers’ case, this is T.J. McConnell. For the trip, McConnell averaged 5.5 points, 8.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.3 steals in 30.5 minutes per game. But it was the fourth quarters where McConnell vanished as the Sixers’ floor leader.

Over four games, McConnell contributed 0.5 points and 0.8 assists in 5.7 minutes per game in the final term. Furthermore, backup point guard Sergio Rodriguez contributed just 0.5 points and 0.8 assists in 6.2 minutes per fourth quarter. With these numbers in mind, it’s little wonder coach Brown recently revealed that Ben Simmons will assume the starting point guard duties from next season despite not hitting the court in his debut season.

The following video is an example of the Sixers’ struggles during their fourth quarters:

As can be seen, McConnell has the ball with the clock winding down. Instead of using Saric for the screen, McConnell waives him away and takes on Curry one-on-one. As a result, the shot clock expires prior to him attempting a shot, with coach Brown expressing his frustration and anger afterwards. Simple game awareness and realising your limitations is something that McConnell and the Sixers’ as a whole will need to address.

So with a 24-43 record and just 15 games remaining, working on their inefficiencies down the stretch of games certainly should be one of the main priorities for the Sixers during this final stretch of the season.

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Still, the returns of Embiid and Simmons next season, combined with a high lottery-pick in the summer, should ensure that the Sixers’ future is still looking awfully bright.