Big East: Georgetown Hoyas On Verge Of Returning To Relevancy
By Jeremy Karll
The Georgetown Hoyas won’t make the NCAA Tournament this year, but they’re close.
The new-look Big East has the 2015-16 national champion Villanova Wildcats, four teams that have been ranked for multiple weeks this season and projected to have six teams in the NCAA Tournament this year, according to Joe Lunardi.
It’s the team that has been in the Big East since the beginning in 1979-80, the Georgetown Hoyas, that is closer to returning to a national threat than their 14-12 record indicates, though.
Barring Georgetown winning the conference tournament, the Hoyas will miss the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons for first time under John Thompson III, the son of legendary head coach John Thompson.
Georgetown is currently going through the same rebuilding stage that took place under Craig Esherick during the small window between the Thompson coaches.
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Unlike Esherick, who only made the NCAA Tournament once in six seasons as Georgetown’s head coach, it’s plausible that Georgetown will return to the NCAA Tournament as soon as next year.
It’s been a rough couple of years for Georgetown, but their play this season is a beam of hope for them moving forward. Even though the Hoyas are 14-12 this season and ahead of only the doormat of DePaul in the Big East, their record is a lot stronger than it looks at first glance.
They have dealt with the 18th toughest schedule in the nation because of the 15th toughest non-conference schedule among Power 6 schools. That gives a roster that features just three seniors valuable experience moving forward.
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The Hoyas scheduled Maryland, now 23rd in the nation; a road game at Syracuse, which is currently a No. 11 seed in Lunardi’s bracket; and played in arguably the toughest early-season tournament, the Maui Invitational.
In the Invitational, they drew Oregon, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, all teams that will likely be in the tournament.
In the Maui Invitational, the Hoyas beat Oregon 65-61 before losing to Wisconsin and Oklahoma State by 16 and 27, respectively.
Oregon’s Dillon Brooks was still recovering from a broken foot and only played 13 minutes, but most would agree the 13th-ranked Ducks were still the more talented team, nonetheless, with players such as Jordan Bell and Tyler Dorsey healthy.
While their blowout losses to end the invitational don’t bode well for Georgetown, note that it happened at the start of the season and the Hoyas have played much better against ranked teams in conference play.
Georgetown is 2-4 with wins over Creighton and on the road at Butler in back-to-back games. Outside of two losses by more than 15 points this season, Georgetown has been tough to beat and are seemingly on the edge of making the jump to the upper echelon of the Big East.
As previously mentioned, their Big East schedule hasn’t been a cake walk, either. Georgetown has played six ranked teams in conference play alone, going 2-4, and still have two more scheduled in Creighton and Villanova to end the season.
A tough schedule doesn’t mean much without wins, but it proves they can play with the top teams in the nation after faring well against ranked teams, or teams that would go down as a quality win, and are just a couple of players away from winning more of these type of games.
According to ESPN, the Hoyas have three wins over top 25 RPI teams this season, which is more than top 10-RPI teams Oregon, Arizona and Kentucky.
Granted the Hoyas are 3-6 against such teams, but their six losses haven’t been blowouts like one might expect from a team barely better than .500.
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They have only come by an average of 8.8 points and only one by more than 11. Their most recent loss to a top 25-RPI team came last week when Villanova beat Georgetown 75-64.
Eleven points isn’t bad considering Villanova won by an average of 14 points in their other 11 Big East wins this season.
Besides, it’s not crazy to imagine Georgetown being 5-4 in such games this season.
It took one of the biggest collapses in college basketball this season for Georgetown to lose 76-75 to Maryland at the start of the season. The Hoyas led 70-63 with 1:14 left in the game but collapsed on defense to let the Terrapins win.
Against Xavier, Georgetown led 38-36 at halftime and never allowed Xavier to lead by more than eight points in the last five minutes. The Hoyas also got the lead down to two, 76-74, with 54 seconds left.
A couple of more weapons and the Hoyas would be 16-10 and looking at the NCAA Tournament.
It might sound odd for a team currently 5-8 in conference play, but only reversing their 68-66 loss to Seton Hall would move them to a tie for fifth in the conference with Marquette and St. John’s.
Of course, “what if” scenarios can be used in any situation and don’t mean anything at the end of the day.
That said, it still shows how close Georgetown is to a potential tournament-bound team such as Marquette, not to mention Georgetown picked up an impressive 80-62 win over Marquette last weekend.
Plus, the metrics that the selection committee uses love Georgetown. Despite an unflattering 14-12 record, Georgetown is 47th in BPI, 53rd in KenPom rankings, 59th in RPI and has the 68th-strongest record in the nation.
All four metrics consider Georgetown a tournament team this season, even though their record is the same as the Iowa Hawkeyes, a 14-12 Big Ten team ranked 105th in RPI.
It’s a testament to their tough schedule and amount of quality wins. It’s what keeps Baylor the no. 1 RPI team, despite being 2-3 over their past five games.
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While their quality wins and RPI won’t transfer to next season, it’s telling of the talent Georgetown already has on their roster. Their biggest loss will be senior Rodney Pryor, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding, but the Hoyas have a star to replace him in L.J. Peak.
Peak leads the team in assists at 3.6 per game and is second in scoring at 16.5 points per game on 46.4 percent shooting and 34.1 percent three-point shooting.
Pryor will be a big loss for Georgetown, but Peak has significantly improved every season and has the potential to top Pryor’s 18.3 points per game next season.
Here’s a look at Peak’s year-by-year statistics:
- FR: 25.3 MPG, 7.9 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1 APG, 0.8 SPG, 39.4 FG%, 24.6 3P%, 70.1 FT%
- SO: 25 MPG, 12.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.8 SPG, 49.1 FG%, 40.9 3P%, 76 FT%
- JR: 33.6 MPG, 16.5 PPG, 4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 46.4 FG%, 34.1 3P%, 79.9 FT%
It’s evident that Peak has made significant improvements in every aspect over the course of his Georgetown career. He is also playing a career-high 33.6 minutes per game this season and would have been the Hoyas’ go-to player this season if Pryor didn’t transfer from Robert Morris.
His playmaking, which has resulted in him doubling his assists per game from last season, is the biggest takeaway from his game this year.
It’s always been known that he had the potential to be an elite scorer, but now he’s showing that he can be a distributor, too, and one of the better all-around guards in the Big East.
Besides, Georgetown is far from the only team in the Big East losing a star next season. Villanova will lose Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins. Creighton, just like now, won’t have Maurice Watson Jr. Xavier and Butler each have at least five seniors on their roster this season.
The biggest question for Georgetown is if their frontcourt of Jessie Govan and Marcus Derrickson can continue to improve their games and become solid scoring options alongside Peak next season.
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It’s a good sign that Derrickson is averaging 9.9 points per game in the Big East, a 3.3 point per game improvement from his 6.6 points per game in non-conference play.
Plus, on Georgetown, Govan and Derrickson are third and fourth, respectively, in rebounds per 40 minutes this season among players who have played in at least 20 games.
With the departure of 7-footer Bradley Hayes, Derrickson will be the unquestioned starting center next season. He’s shown a lot of improvement in his two seasons, and Georgetown is known for developing big men.
Georgetown will also add dynamic 5’10” point guard Tremont Waters and 6’7″ small forward Antwan Walker. Both are top-200 recruits, according to 247Sports, including Waters being the 38th best nationally.
It’s another solid class for Georgetown after only signing one player, Jagan Mosely, in 2016. That said, Mosley has been a solid contributor for the Hoyas this season. He’s played 19.8 minutes per game and ranks top five in scoring, assists and steals on Georgetown in conference play.
For a team that is seemingly just a couple of players away from becoming a legitimate national threat, Georgetown will have the right mix of players in 2017-18.
They’ll have a couple of breakout candidates in underclassmen but also a senior in Peak and juniors in Derrickson and Govan leading the team.
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They won’t be a Final Four contender in 2017-18, but Georgetown is on their way up and should return to being a 20-win team and making the NCAA Tournament with the talent they’ll have.
Although, the expected end to their two-year rebuild could be prolonged if Peak decides to leave for the NBA.
According to DraftExpress, Peak is just the 76th best prospect in this year’s draft. It’s likely that he will test the NBA waters, especially if he gets an NBA Combine invite, but should return for his senior season to prove himself as the leader of the team.
He’s not guaranteed to be drafted, therefore it would be a bigger risk to enter the draft and likely spend a year in the D-League than to develop his game, lead the Hoyas and prove to be the go-to player everyone has waited for him to become over his three-year career.
Georgetown’s success lies on the shoulders of the development of younger players, but they’re a lot closer than their 14-12 record indicates. They’re learning what it takes to beat good teams a year before it really matters.
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L.J. Peak will be a frontrunner for the Big East’s Player of the Year award in 2017-18, and Georgetown is ready to surprise the conference, too.