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NBA Stretch Run: This Season Promises More Turmoil Than Most

By Josh Cornelissen

Jan 22, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Denver Nuggets 111-108. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 22, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Denver Nuggets 111-108. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jan 22, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Denver Nuggets 111-108. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 22, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Denver Nuggets 111-108. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /

As the calendar flips to February, most NBA teams still have plenty to play for. With all but a few teams alive for the NBA Playoffs, competition promises to be fierce down the stretch of the season.

By the time February hits, most NBA teams have already settled into the tiers they will inhabit at year’s end. The postseason bracket is close to complete, the seeding is mostly worked out, and those teams heading for the lottery can make moves at the trade deadline sure of their fate.

In a recent piece for ESPN, Tom Haberstroh spoke on this reality from a statistical point of view, unpacking the data to show how unlikely it is for the standings to shake up over the back half of the season.

He stated that 80 percent of the standings can be locked in on Jan. 20, based on data compiled over 36 seasons.

For teams outside of the postseason, the passes in are often limited. Haberstroh writes that over the last 10 seasons, less than two teams slated for the lottery on Jan. 20 will make it into the postseason by mid-April.

Last season, only the Charlotte Hornets made the leap as the other 15 teams remained locked in place.

Fortunately for NBA fans, this season promises to be very different from the norm. Twenty-five teams have at least a 5 percent chance of making the postseason (per FiveThirtyEight.com) and the next two teams have Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis to give them hope of a stretch run.

Conversely. only 12 of the 16 teams currently holding playoff positions have an 80 percent or better chance of making the postseason. Of those 12, all but one have a lot of work to do to lock up their current place as a seeding.

The drama is thickest out West, where six teams can all lay claim to just one playoff berth.