As the 2016-17 NBA season gets underway, here’s a look at player rankings for the top 10 small forwards in the league.
With the 2016-17 NBA season officially underway, all the summer chatter about the draft, free agency, trades and preseason expectations has finally given way to actual basketball. Now that the new season tipped off Tuesday evening, the players get to do all the talking.
With another week or so to speculate before the new results and stats start sinking in, however, there’s still plenty to evaluate after another summer full of player movement. From offseason grades to season previews, there’s been plenty to analyze, but what about some good, old-fashioned player rankings?
Player rankings are always subjective, and that makes them open to an awful lot of scrutiny, debate and differing opinions.
There are a ton of factors to take into account, including stats, advanced stats, individual skills, defense, team success, value to a team, upside, injury history, projections for the upcoming season, how they’ll fit in a new role or on a new team…the list goes on and on.
In an attempt to make sense of that myriad of judging standards, it’s time to take a look at the 10 best players in the NBA at each position. Today, we move on to the 10 best small forwards in the league.
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For our purposes, we tried to stick with players’ true positions, rather than where they might play in rarely used small-ball lineups. Without further ado, here are the honorable mentions and top 10 small forwards in the NBA.
Honorable Mentions: Danilo Gallinari, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, DeMarre Carroll, Chandler Parsons, Harrison Barnes, Rudy Gay, Kent Bazemore, Andre Iguodala, Justise Winslow, Al-Farouq Aminu, Luol Deng, Otto Porter Jr.
10. Jae Crowder
2015-16 Stats: 14.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.7 SPG, .443/.336/.820 shooting, 15.8 PER
Since Gallo, MKG, Carroll and Parsons ALL need to prove they get/can stay healthy in order to work their way onto this list, Jae Crowder gets the nod at No. 10. That works out well for everyone though, since Crowder remains one of the more underrated players in the league.
Isaiah Thomas has become the heart and soul of the Boston Celtics, while Al Horford‘s arrival serves as the catalyst to bump this young team up into contention for a top-three seed in the East. However, Crowder does a lot of the dirty work on the wing, providing solid two-way play for a Celtics team that already ranked fourth in defensive rating before adding Horford.
What are Crowder's individual goals? "I don't have any. I just want to win." End of answer.
— Jay King (@ByJayKing) October 24, 2016
Crowder also improved his scoring touch, averaging 14.2 points per game last year. The Celtics would really like to see him refine his paltry three-point shot, but from his help on the boards to his stifling wing defense, this 26-year-old steal of a contract shouldn’t be overlooked.
With Horford on board, Crowder probably won’t put up the same scoring numbers he did last year in something of a breakout season. But his defense and an increased focus on helping out on the glass will still make him a vital part of whatever Boston hopes to accomplish in 2016-17.
9. Andrew Wiggins
2015-16 Stats: 20.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, .459/.300/.761 shooting, 16.6 PER
Andrew Wiggins is a fairly flawed player, but all the focus on how scary-good Karl-Anthony Towns already is has unfairly tainted expectations for the Minnesota Timberwolves‘ star wing. Last I checked, Wiggins is still only 21 years old and just put up 20 points a game in his second season.
Wiggins is still a poor three-point shooter, he’s fluctuated between the 2 and 3, and he’s still learning to contribute in categories other than the scoring column, but coming off his Rookie of the Year season, he took the next logical step in his career as a 20 points per game scorer.
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The next areas for improvement in his game will be his three-point touch and evolving into a lockdown wing defender. The long range efficiency might take some time, but Wiggins has the physical tools to be a menacing presence on the defensive end, especially now that he’ll be playing under head coach Tom Thibodeau.
KAT is the future of the franchise and his development has looked a lot smoother, but don’t sleep on Wiggins taking the next step forward — on both ends of the floor — in his third season. Contrary to (somewhat) popular belief, Wiggins’ development is coming along just fine.
8. Gordon Hayward
2015-16 Stats: 19.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, .433/.349/.824 shooting, 18.3 PER
Giannis obviously has much higher upside and will probably put up bigger individual numbers, but as far as the 2016-17 season is concerned, Gordon Hayward would’ve gotten the nod over the Greek Freak at No. 7…if not for a broken finger expected to sideline him for six weeks.
Hayward is not quite a superstar, but he’s won over quite a few people with his solid two-way play. He’s a much better player than most people expected from the former Butler standout, and entering his seventh season in the league, he’s as poised for an All-Star season as he’s ever been.
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The Utah Jazz have a terrific balance of young talent, players on the verge of breakout seasons and experienced veterans — all of whom play lockdown defense. If they can just stay healthy, Hayward will be playing a central role on a team that could challenge for a top-4 seed in the Western Conference.
Derrick Favors might be Utah’s most well-rounded player, but there’s no question Hayward is the closest thing this team has to a go-to scorer. With more talent and shooting around him, Hayward’s job should be a little easier on both ends of the floor…once he gets healthy, that is.
7. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2015-16 Stats: 16.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.4 BPG, 1.2 SPG, .506/.257/.724 shooting, 18.8 PER
Khris Middleton‘s likely absence for the entire 2016-17 season could have one of two effects on Giannis Antetokounmpo: He’ll either be forced to elevate his game to make up for lost production on the wing, or his role as the team’s point forward will become a lot more challenging without adequate floor-spacing.
More than likely, that lack of perimeter shooting will clog driving lanes for the Greek Freak, since Tony Snell isn’t the answer and Mirza Teletovic can only do so much off the bench. That being said, without the Milwaukee Bucks‘ leading scorer on the floor, you can expect Antetokounmpo to put up some gaudy numbers nonetheless.
Don’t forget, as much as he’s technically a small forward, Giannis playing that point forward spot should empower him like never before. Jason Kidd inserted him into the role during the home stretch of the 2015-16 season, and Antetokounmpo responded by putting up five triple-doubles following the All-Star Break.
The Greek Freak averaged 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.4 steals per game in that span, and if he can step up his scoring numbers — particularly when it comes to his long distance shooting — he’ll quickly emerge as one of the most terrifying two-way players in the NBA, regardless of position.
6. Carmelo Anthony
2015-16 Stats: 21.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, .434/.339/.829 shooting, 20.3 PER
Carmelo Anthony‘s days of being an elite scorer are probably behind him, and he’s at his most effective as a small-ball 4, but he was the only player in the NBA last year to lead his team in points, rebounds AND assists per game. Now that he’ll have more talent around him (and be more pigeonholed as a 3), maybe he and the New York Knicks are still due for a resurgence?
Don’t forget, before these last couple years of misery, Melo had led every single one of his teams to the playoffs. People bag on him for being a ball-stopper and for his defensive effort, but forgive me for not joining a bandwagon whose main gripe against Melo is basically that he’s not LeBron James. No one is.
What everyone overlooked in his prime — and still overlooks to this day — is just how magnificent a scorer Anthony is. His efficiency took a dip last season, but it’s important to remember he’s now 32 years old and his best teammate was a 20-year-old rookie.
The Knicks aren’t title contenders with Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, Joakim Noah and Brandon Jennings surrounding him, but they should be a contender for a playoff spot. Melo has long been an underrated passer because of his low assist numbers, but perhaps he’ll continue to prove his leadership qualities by putting in more defensive effort with more help around him.
5. Jimmy Butler
2015-16 Stats: 20.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.6 SPG, .454/.312/.832 shooting, 21.3 PER
Jimmy Butler is a shooting guard, but like Melo, he’ll be playing slightly out of position for the sake of the starting five. With Rajon Rondo running the point and Dwyane Wade bringing his skill set to the 2-spot, the Chicago Bulls will need their 6’7″ franchise star to log his minutes at the 3.
Butler has been matching up with small forwards like LeBron James, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for years now, so it shouldn’t be too much of an adjustment for him. He’s not quite in their class, but he’s still one of the NBA’s premier two-way players, and the Bulls’ success will depend on what kind of leader Butler is in 2016-17.
Well, maybe three-point shooting will play a major role in that too, but after slapping up a 21-5-5 stat line last year, how well Butler spreads the floor in particular will be another major factor for a starting lineup devoid of perimeter touch.
In any case, Butler is an efficient midrange scorer and an imposing defender on the other end of the floor. If he can refine his three-point touch and somehow learn to pick his spots alongside two other backcourt players who can’t shoot either, maybe he could lead the Bulls back to the playoffs.
4. Paul George
2015-16 Stats: 23.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, .418/.371/.860 shooting, 20.9 PER
Paul George’s MVP goals are a tad lofty, but the 27.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals per game on .458/.451/.850 shooting splits he averaged through November last season showed what he’s capable of at his best.
He was unable to sustain that MVP-caliber play, with his numbers plummeting to 22.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game on .407/.351/.863 shooting from then on, but if the Indiana Pacers‘ swap in identity from defense to offense works out, he could very well be a dark horse MVP candidate.
For our purposes, however, it doesn’t really matter whether or not he’s in contention for the MVP Award; he’s already one of the four best small forwards in the league thanks to his scoring ability, athleticism, three-point shooting, presence on the glass and stellar wing defense.
Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson should boost the offense, but unless Myles Turner makes an unprecedented leap as the team’s anchor in Year 2, Indiana’s defense will be worse. It’s on PG-13 to not only help his offense live up to its fullest potential, but also to set an example on the defensive end.
3. Kawhi Leonard
2015-16 Stats: 21.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .506/.443/.874 shooting, 26.1 PER
Tuesday night’s slaughter of the Golden State Warriors was eye-opening, but we’ll need more than one stellar performance to bump Kawhi Leonard ahead of our next two small forwards — even if that performance was a career-high 35 points on 10-of-21 shooting to go with five boards and five steals.
A game is only one game, but that 29-point rout of the Warriors, not to mention how aggressive Leonard looked all night, was a pretty good indicator the San Antonio Spurs aren’t planning on regressing in their first season of the post-Tim Duncan era.
https://twitter.com/spurs/status/791132444233764864
Leonard will be at the forefront of that charge, leading his team on both ends of the floor. He missed all three of his three-pointers Tuesday night, but he got to the foul line 15 times (making all 15), was aggressive on the offensive glass for put-backs and was unstoppable in the midrange.
With astounding athleticism, oven mitt-sized hands and a wingspan that’s more like a stretched-out boa constrictor, Leonard would be a terror even without his high basketball IQ and incredible work ethic. For now we’ll leave him at No. 3, but this very well could be the season that opens up the LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant conversation to a third party.
2. Kevin Durant
2015-16 Stats: 28.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.2 BPG, 1.0 SPG, .505/.386/.898 shooting, 28.2 PER
Kevin Durant’s first game with the mighty Golden State Warriors didn’t exactly work out as planned, but if there are any bright spots to take from of a 29-point loss for this new super-team, it was how comfortable KD looked right from the outset.
His 27 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, two steals and two blocks felt empty in the wake of falling to 0-1 on the season, but they also gave a good glimpse at what he’ll be able to provide most nights. Durant started the game 4-for-4, was confident from the opening tip, and shot 11-for-18 from the floor.
There will be an adjustment period for the Dubs, just as there was for LeBron James’ Miami Heat super-team, his Cleveland Cavaliers super-team and pretty much every super-team in NBA history other than those 2007-08 Boston Celtics. This is not rocket science, nor was it difficult to predict before Tuesday’s humiliating season opener.
However, the Warriors haters should get their “3-1” jokes in now while they can, because there’s way too much talent here to be worried just yet. As the starting five builds its chemistry, Kevin Durant — by all rights one of the three best players in the world — is going to be as dangerous as ever.
1. LeBron James
2015-16 Stats: 25.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, .520/.309/.731 shooting, 27.6 PER
After watching LeBron James bring the city of Cleveland its first championship in 52 years, after watching him lead the Cleveland Cavaliers back from a 3-1 NBA Finals deficit over a 73-win team, and after watching him drop a triple-double on opening night…are you really going to think about putting anyone but him in this No. 1 spot?
In the offseason, there was a lot of talk about LeBron coasting through the regular season. The idea was that head coach Tyronn Lue would rest him more to save his strength for another Herculean title run against another Warriors juggernaut. King James responded with a 19-14-11 triple-double on 9-of-14 shooting in just 32 minutes in the Cavs’ season opener.
If LeBron can continue to put up gaudy stat lines like this in limited minutes, he may just “coast” to his sixth MVP Award the way Stephen Curry did last year — put up insane numbers, bury your opponent early, and enjoy the fourth quarter off with a double-digit advantage in hand.
Next: 2016-17 NBA Power Rankings: Week 1
When Curry capped off the greatest regular season in NBA history, LeBron James snatched the title of “world’s best basketball player” back from him in the Finals. No one has taken that title from the King yet, and until it happens, no one is knocking him off this pedestal as the league’s best small forward either.