The Los Angeles Clippers are still looking for their first conference finals appearance in franchise history. Is the 2016-17 NBA season the year they finally do it?
This is the golden age of Los Angeles Clippers basketball, but without a single conference finals appearance to its name, this once lowly franchise is still chasing prominence. With stars like Blake Griffin and Chris Paul leading the way, the 2016-17 season is one of the utmost importance.
Every year, there’s been something holding the Clippers back. From Vinny Del Negro to the Donald Sterling controversy to injury woes to bad luck to cringeworthy choke jobs, Lob City has never lobbed its way to a conference finals appearance, let alone a long-awaited championship.
Heading into their sixth season together, it’s do or die time for Griffin, CP3 and company. Teams don’t often have the luxury of keeping the same core forever, and for a franchise still in search of its first conference finals appearance, it may be time to move on if the front office feels this current roster can’t get the job done.
With the Golden State Warriors adding Kevin Durant, the San Antonio Spurs being the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers looking to defend their improbable title, the timing has never been worse for the Clippers.
Related Story: Los Angeles Lakers: 2016-17 Season Outlook
Can they shock the masses and bust their reputations as chokers? Can they prove themselves as legitimate contenders, or at least make a conference finals appearance? Here’s a look at Lob City’s 2016-17 season preview.
2015-16 Vitals
53-29, 2nd in Pacific Division, 4th in Western Conference
104.5 PPG (7th)/100.2 OPP PPG (7th)
108.3 Offensive Rating (8th)/103.6 Defensive Rating (6th)
Team Leaders
Scoring: Chris Paul, 19.5 PPG
Rebounding: DeAndre Jordan, 13.8 RPG
Assists: Chris Paul, 10.0 APG
Steals: Chris Paul, 2.1 SPG
Blocks: DeAndre Jordan, 2.3 BPG
Honors
Sixth Man Of The Year Award: Jamal Crawford
All-NBA First Team: DeAndre Jordan
All-NBA Second Team: Chris Paul
NBA All-Defensive First Team: DeAndre Jordan
NBA All-Defensive First Team: Chris Paul
Next: Roster
2016-17 Roster
Alan Anderson, SG
Jeff Ayres, PF
Brandon Bass, PF
Jamal Crawford, SG
Raymond Felton, PG
Blake Griffin, PF
Brice Johnson, PF
Wesley Johnson, SF
DeAndre Jordan, C
Luc Mbah a Moute, PF
Chris Paul, PG
Paul Pierce, SF
J.J. Redick, SG
Austin Rivers, PG
Marreese Speights, C
Diamond Stone, C
Offseason Additions
Alan Anderson (free agency, Washington Wizards), Brandon Bass (free agency, Los Angeles Lakers), Raymond Felton (free agency, Dallas Mavericks), Brice Johnson (25th overall draft pick, North Carolina), Marreese Speights (free agency, Golden State Warriors), Diamond Stone (40th overall draft pick, Maryland)
Offseason Subtractions
Cole Aldrich (free agency, Minnesota Timberwolves), Branden Dawson (waived), Pablo Prigioni (free agency, Houston Rockets), C.J. Wilcox (trade, Orlando Magic)
Quick Thoughts
For the most part, the Los Angeles Clippers are pretty much the same team as last year. Their biggest summer additions will simply be getting Chris Paul and Blake Griffin back healthy, since it was their season-ending injuries that sunk Lob City’s playoff aspirations.
There are a few key bench additions to keep an eye on, however. Losing Cole Aldrich was a blow to this team’s frontcourt depth, particularly on the defensive end, but the Clippers did fairly well to expand upon a second unit that’s consistently been this team’s Achilles’ heel.
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In addition to re-signing Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, Luc Mbah a Moute and Wesley Johnson, Los Angeles went out and signed Raymond Felton, Brandon Bass and Marreese Speights — experienced acquisitions who will take some of the pressure off the bench regulars.
Felton allows Rivers to shift to his more natural fit at shooting guard, taking the ball handling duties away from the coach’s son and providing the Clippers with playmaking and poise. Bass is another frontcourt body who has familiarity with head coach Doc Rivers, and Speights will supply instant offense and three-point shooting off the pine.
Rookies Brice Johnson and Diamond Stone might not get much run, but they have a fair amount of upside and should be monitored with cautious optimism. As in most years, however, this team will only go as far as their Chris Paul-Blake Griffin-DeAndre Jordan trio can lead them.
Next: Storyline 1: Griffin's Redemption
Three Key Storylines: 1. Griffin’s Redemption
Those season-ending injuries to Paul and Griffin were the final nails in the coffin, but let’s be honest: It never really felt like the Clippers were going anywhere in 2015-16 anyway. Sure they went 53-29 with Griffin missing 47 games, but in a season where the Golden State Warriors won 73 games and the San Antonio Spurs weren’t far behind at 67, it just wasn’t Lob City’s year.
But would that have been such a foregone conclusion if not for Blake Griffin’s tumultuous season? The torn quadriceps injury wasn’t his fault, but being sidelined with a hand injury for an additional 4-6 weeks (plus a four-game suspension) right when he was about to come back was a serious blow, and it was all on him.
Injuries happen, but Griffin hurting himself from punching a team equipment manager was a serious lapse in judgement that cost his team the chance of ever finding its highest gear. His apology for the whole ordeal was sincere; now it’s time to back it up with a career year in 2016-17.
Blake Griffin puts up 26 for the @LAClippers vs. Portland. #NBApreseason pic.twitter.com/LRXr8Zi2J4
— NBA (@NBA) October 14, 2016
Don’t forget, it was only two years ago that Griffin morphed into some freakish Magic Johnson–Kevin Garnett–LeBron James hybrid in the playoffs, averaging a monster 25.5 points, 12.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals per game to lead the Clippers within one game of the conference finals.
In 2016-17, Griffin will be on a mission to prove last season was just an unfortunate anomaly. People have forgotten how good the Flyin’ Lion can be when he’s in peak form, and at age 27, we could be entering the best season of Griffin’s prime.
Next: Storyline 2: Bench Expectations
Three Key Storylines: 2. Bench Expectations
If the story of the Los Angeles Clippers’ bench over the last few seasons were to be written by a famous author, it probably wouldn’t have been penned by Charles Dickens. On the contrary, someone like Lemony Snicket would’ve felt more appropriate.
To be fair to the Clippers’ much maligned second unit, they weren’t terrible by every measure last year. In fact, their 38.0 points per game ranked fourth out of every bench in the NBA. Not too shabby, eh?
FanSided
Unfortunately, all that scoring was balanced out by inefficient shooting (.423/.325/.780) and nonexistent defense. Despite their impressive point totals, the -0.7 plus/minus of the Clippers bench ranked 19th in the league and beat only three other playoff teams: the Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons.
Austin Rivers has grown over the last few seasons, only no one has noticed it over his one or two patented embarrassing plays per game. Jamal Crawford is an inefficient gunner who’s shot under 42 percent from the field in each of his last three seasons and had no business winning the Sixth Man of the Year Award last year.
Once pegged as a 3-and-D prototype, Wesley Johnson only shot 33.3 percent from downtown last year. Mbah a Moute will provide defense and rebounding in limited minutes, but little else. Paul Pierce is all but washed up and can’t be relied upon in any capacity during his twilight years.
The leaves the onus on Rivers, Crawford and the newcomers to carry the load. Speights will spread the floor and put up points in a hurry, but is a liability on the defensive end. Raymond Felton brings poise, smart passing and veteran experience, but can’t make a three to save his life.
Brandon Bass barely managed 7.2 points and 4.3 rebounds in 20.3 minutes per game off the bench for the lowly Los Angeles Lakers last season, and Alan Anderson is another irrational confidence guy whose production will be hit or miss. The rookies probably won’t play much, but for Doc Rivers’ second unit, did they do enough to shore up the lackluster defense and shooting efficiency?
Next: Storyline 3: Is This The Year? (It'd Better Be.)
Three Key Storylines: 3. Is This The Year? (It’d Better Be.)
The pressure is on for the Clippers this season, not only because the front office will believe this core has reached its expiration date if they can’t get past the second round again, but because the star players might begin to believe it too.
After all, it’s no secret that both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin can opt out of their contracts at the end of the 2016-17 campaign, putting immense pressure on Lob City to give them a reason to stay. That falls directly on the shoulders of CP3 and Griffin, of course, but anything less than a conference finals appearance may push them into the arms of another offseason suitor.
Griffin has long been the face of the franchise, and an early report indicates that he wants to keep it that way for the long haul. But we’ve seen similar comments from guys like LeBron James and Kevin Durant in the past, only for them to leave in free agency anyway.
As for CP3, his style of leadership can be a bit harsh for some. That overbearing charisma was part of the reason DeAndre Jordan was on the verge of joining the Dallas Mavericks in the first place. If the prospect of teaming up with LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and/or Dwyane Wade presents itself in the future, don’t think for a second he’d turn down an opportunity to go banana-boating again.
The Warriors look unstoppable out West, and the Cavs are no pushover in the East. That leaves the Clippers in a bit of a bind, since their title window appears slammed shut for the time being.
However, the San Antonio Spurs look as vulnerable as that immortal team has looked in quite some time, and if reaching the conference finals would be enough to give Paul and Griffin hope for their current situation, 2016-17 represents a decent chance of getting there.
Don’t forget, the Clippers won 53 games last year with Blake Griffin missing more than half the season. The Spurs downgraded from Tim Duncan to Pau Gasol on the defensive end, while losses like Boris Diaw and Boban Marjanovic weaken San Antonio’s depth. Lob City has been a popular preseason pick to usurp the Spurs as the West’s No. 2 team.
Only time will tell if they can pull that off, let alone avoid another second round meltdown in the playoffs. But with Griffin and Paul’s free agency decisions looming, it’s now or never for the Lob City era.
Next: Best, Worst Case Scenarios
Best-Case Scenario
Blake Griffin makes up for lost time with an MVP-caliber season, winning the award in a wide open year. Chris Paul shows no sign of decline at age 31, and neither does the sharpshooting J.J. Redick. DeAndre Jordan submits another monster defensive season, earning Defensive Player of the Year honors.
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Doc Rivers is able to recreate some of that magic from his ubuntu Boston Celtics teams, and the Clippers steamroll their way to 59 wins and the second seed in the West. They beat the Spurs in a hard-fought second round matchup, overcoming those semifinal demons with the help of Paul Pierce, who has one last vintage playoff performance left in the tank.
In the conference finals, they face an injured Golden State Warriors team whose chemistry never clicked the way it should have. Lob City’s continuity and improved bench give them the edge and they pull off the unlikely upset.
In the Finals they face LeBron James’ Cavs, who are also dealing with injuries to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. This string of injury luck gives the Clippers the edge again, and they manage to win their first NBA title behind heroic performances from Griffin and CP3. Winning a championship is more than enough to convince the Clippers’ impending free agents to remain in Los Angeles.
Worst-Case Scenario
Blake Griffin and/or CP3 are injured again, putting an early damper on the Clippers’ season. Lob City still breezes its way to around 50 wins, but falls to fourth or fifth in the Western playoff picture as Chris Paul finally begins to show signs of decline.
The Clippers’ bench pieces fail to fit together and Doc Rivers has problems finding a workable rotation when his starters need a breather. Griffin and CP3 grow frustrated with the whole process, and another first or second round upset sends them over the deep end.
Clinging to their current core, the front office fails/is unable to trade their star players on expiring deals, losing one or both of them in free agency for nothing. The once promising Lob City era ends in zero championships, and the Clippers are left trying to pick up the pieces with a dearth of future draft picks to use for rebuilding.
Next: Predictions
Predictions
Unless Griffin or Paul comes right out and says they’re unhappy, the Clippers won’t be trading either one of them. They’re putting all their eggs in the 2016-17 basket, hoping it fills itself up with enough reasons for them to stay in free agency when summer arrives.
Normally, the Clippers would be a great Vegas bet for winning a title. They have a high-powered offense, an underrated defense, a Big Three, a coach with championship experience and an improved bench. Unfortunately, the Warriors and Cavaliers are just too damn good, and that’s without even including the ever-dangerous Spurs.
With so many threats lurking on the path to this year’s NBA championship, it’s hard to see the Clippers finally breaking through. Blake Griffin is poised for the best season of his career, but depending on who Los Angeles faces in their playoff run, the team’s season could very well end in the second round once again.
Most likely, Los Angeles wins around 57 games and earns the No. 2 seed in the West, but fails to reach the NBA Finals. The Clippers’ bench will put up points, but it won’t be enough to get them any further than the conference finals at best.
Next: 2016-17 Win Total Projections For All 30 NBA Teams
Both Paul and Griffin will opt out, with CP3 taking his talents elsewhere and Griffin re-signing on a max deal. The Lob City era will be over, leaving the front office with the daunting task of replacing one of the greatest point guards of all-time to assemble a new title contender around Griffin and Jordan.