Atlanta Hawks: 2016-17 Season Outlook

After moving from Jeff Teague and Al Horford to Dennis Schroder and Dwight Howard, are the Atlanta Hawks still a playoff team? Here’s their 2016-17 season outlook.

Two seasons ago, the Atlanta Hawks were a 60-win team that earned the top seed in the Eastern Conference and made it all the way to the conference finals. Last season, they were a 48-win team that earned home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

In both seasons, a quick four-game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers ended their playoff hopes.

Heading into the 2016-17 campaign, the Hawks are missing three key starters from that 60-win team. DeMarre Carroll, whose departure contributed to last season’s regression, is heading into his second year with the Raptors. Jeff Teague was traded to the Indiana Pacers in a three-team deal, and Al Horford joined the Boston Celtics in free agency.

It’s not all bad news for Atlanta, however. The Teague trade was meant to pave the way to a starting role for Dennis Schroder, the Hawks picked up hometown hero Dwight Howard as a replacement/insurance for Horford at center, and Kent Bazemore was retained on a four-year, $70 million deal.

Related Story: Boston Celtics: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Heading into the new season, however, there are plenty of questions surrounding Mike Budenholzer’s team. The Hawks will have to change their schemes on both ends of the floor based on their new (and lost) personnel, and the rest of the East got better over the summer.

Here’s a look at what to expect from the Atlanta Hawks heading into the 2016-17 NBA season, complete with a roster breakdown, key storylines, best- and worst-case scenarios, and final predictions.

2015-16 Vitals

48-34, 2nd in Southeast Division, 4th in Eastern Conference
102.8 PPG (12th)/99.2 OPP PPG (6th)
105.1 Offensive Rating (22nd)/101.4 Defensive Rating (2nd)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Paul Millsap, 17.1 PPG
Rebounding: Paul Millsap, 9.0 RPG
Assists: Jeff Teague, 5.9 APG
Steals: Paul Millsap, 1.8 SPG
Blocks: Paul Millsap, 1.7 BPG

Honors
NBA All-Defensive Second Team: Paul Millsap

Next: Roster

2016-17 Roster

Kent Bazemore, SF
DeAndre Bembry, SF
Will Bynum, PG
Matt Costello, SF
Malcolm Delaney, PG
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG
Dwight Howard, C
Kris Humphries, PF
Jarrett Jack, PG
Ryan Kelly, PF
Kyle Korver, SG
Josh Magette, PG
Paul Millsap, PF
Mike Muscala, PF
Taurean Prince, SF
Dennis Schroder, PG
Mike Scott, PF
Thabo Sefolosha, SF
Tiago Splitter, C
Walter Tavares, C

Offseason Additions
DeAndre Bembry (21st overall draft pick, St. Joseph’s), Will Bynum (free agency, Guangdong Southern Tigers {China}), Matt Costello (free agency, undrafted), Malcolm Delaney (free agency, Lokomotiv Kuban {Russia}), Dwight Howard (free agency, Houston Rockets), Jarrett Jack (free agency, Brooklyn Nets), Ryan Kelly (free agency, Los Angeles Lakers), Taurean Prince (12th overall draft pick, Baylor)

Offseason Subtractions
Kirk Hinrich (free agency, unsigned), Al Horford (free agency, Boston Celtics), Lamar Patterson (waived), Jeff Teague (trade, Indiana Pacers)

Quick Thoughts

The two most notable storylines for the Hawks’ roster over the summer are obviously replacing Jeff Teague with Dennis Schroder and Al Horford with Dwight Howard. We’ll dive into those in a minute, but there are other offseason moves worth mentioning first.

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While Bazemore won the starting job at small forward last year, there will be more pressure on him to produce with the departures of Horford and Teague, especially with that gaudy $70 million contract attached.

Rookies Taurean Prince and DeAndre Bembry will compete for minutes behind Bazemore at the 3. Mike Scott and Kris Humphries will do the same behind Millsap at the 4. Tiago Splitter, who missed 46 games last year due to injury, is already banged up entering the 2016-17 season.

At this point, it’s hard to buy any stock in Atlanta’s bench. And with the starting lineup downgrading at point guard and center, plus Millsap and Kyle Korver getting another year older, Budenholzer will have his hands full getting this group back to the postseason.

Next: Storyline 1: D-12 In The ATL

Three Key Storylines: 1. D-12 In The ATL

Although Dwight Howard agreed to a deal before the Al Horford situation had been sorted out, he was basically brought in with the understanding that Atlanta’s nine-year veteran was pretty much out the door. The question is, how does switching from Horford to Howard change things on both ends of the floor?

On the offensive end, Horford was a terrific passer and his fledgling three-point shot (34.4 percent on a career-high 3.1 attempts per game) helped spread the floor for Bud’s wide open offense. Howard brings neither of those things to the table.

Though he’s been working on his jump shot over the summer, D-12 can hardly be expected to consistently spread the floor in the midrange, let alone from three-point territory. Howard is more of a plodding, back-to-the-basket big who will demand touches on the low block, though it’s worth mentioning that his pick-and-roll chemistry with Schroder looks promising already:

With the Hawks downgrading from Teague (40 percent from downtown last year) to Schroder (32.2 percent) on the perimeter, Atlanta’s highly vaunted three-point attack has already been dealt not one, but two significant blows.

On the defensive end, Howard will definitely help upgrade Atlanta’s rebounding — one of the weaker areas of Horford’s game. D-12 averaged 11.8 rebounds per game last season, which should improve a Hawks team that ranked 24th in rebounds, 30th in offensive rebounds and 28th in rebounding percentage last year.

However, for someone with the reputation of a shot-blocker, Howard is not the positional defender that Horford was. His game relies on waning athleticism, and his lack of versatility will eventually put a damper on Budenholzer’s aggressive defensive schemes.

With Horford and Millsap capable of trapping ball handlers out of pick-and-rolls 25 feet from the basket, Atlanta boasted the NBA’s second best defense last year. Howard is not a bad defender by any means, but he’s more of a traditional rim protector, which will force Bud to adjust his team’s new personnel.

Dwight Howard seems motivated to play for his hometown team, and perhaps playing for such a smart head coach will help him tap into a late-career resurgence. But his arrival will force adjustments on both ends of the floor, and it remains to be seen how his skill set will mesh with a style of play that’s helped Atlanta find so much success over the last few years.

Next: Storyline 2: Schroder Running The Show

Three Key Storylines: 2. Schroder Running The Show

Howard isn’t the only replacement starter for the Hawks in 2016-17, as Dennis Schroder has some big shoes to fill as the team’s new floor general. At age 23, Atlanta will be entrusting its offense to a 2013 first round draft selection entering his fourth season.

Last season, Schroder flourished in his backup role, averaging 11.0 points, 4.4 assists and 2.6 rebounds in 20.3 minutes per game. He often played late in games, when Bud entrusted him with closing duties when he was on a roll and Teague couldn’t manage to get it going.

Unfortunately, Schroder still has a lot of growing up to do. He’s poised for a breakout season, but his turnover-proneness (2.3 per game), wacky finishes in the paint and lack of an outside shot (42.1 percent overall, 32.2 percent from long range) are all areas he clearly needs to improve upon.

Last year, Teague averaged 15.7 points, 5.9 assists and 2.8 turnovers in 28.5 minutes per game while posting .439/.400/.837 shooting splits. Atlanta will miss that kind of efficiency, especially when it comes to spreading the floor and taking care of the rock.

For the long-term, transitioning to Schroder was a necessary step toward the future. Teague turned 28 over the summer and it was starting to feel like he had hit his ceiling with this team, so the transition to Schroder felt inevitable.

For the 2016-17 season, however, this is a definite downgrade. How well Schroder accepts and conquers the upcoming growing pains could very well determine what kind of season Atlanta has.

Next: Storyline 3: Playoffs Or Tank?

Three Key Storylines: 3. Playoffs Or Tank?

The Hawks seem like they’re on a precipice of sorts. On the one hand, they could very well be a playoff team again, one that will take Schroder’s breakout season in stride and remain a dangerous defense with Dwight Howard manning the middle.

On the other hand, a couple injuries here and there and this team could very well opt for a rebuild of sorts.

To be clear, a full-scale roster strip-down seems unlikely, especially after signing Howard to a three-year, $70.5 million deal. That’s not just a feel-good move bringing home an Atlanta native, it’s a move designed to keep this team competitive as they try to get over the hurdle in the East.

Realistically though, nothing the Hawks did this summer indicates they’re capable of competing with the Toronto Raptors or Boston Celtics out East, let alone the Cavs team that’s tormented them over the last two years.

Schroder is going to have his brilliant moments, but he’s also going to take his lumps. Howard could miss time if his physical health doesn’t hold up again and may still be a downgrade from Horford even if he does stay completely healthy. Korver and Millsap got another year older, and could easily become trade bait as they’ve been rumored to be over the last year.

Atlanta is stuck in between a rebuild and a revamping of its roster. If the losses start piling up, don’t be surprised to hear Korver and Millsap’s names come up on the trade market as the Hawks try to ship off their remaining assets, stockpile draft picks, tank the rest of the season away, and prepare for a brighter future.

Next: Best, Worst Case Scenarios

Best-Case Scenario

Everything comes together for the new-look Hawks right from the start. Atlanta doesn’t lose any steam from last season with the switches at point guard and center, as Schroder immediately proves that the Teague trade was the right move for the franchise.

With Schroder enjoying a career year and a new spring in Dwight Howard’s step while playing for his hometown team, Budenholzer is able to adjust his defensive strategies and his offensive sets appropriately.

The Hawks win around 47 games to secure the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference again. They advance past the first round, but are promptly escorted out of the playoffs in the conference semifinals by a superior Cavaliers team once again.

Worst-Case Scenario

Howard, who has missed 11, 41 and 11 games over the last three seasons, once again has problems staying healthy in Atlanta. His back starts acting up, and even when he’s on the floor, his demand for low-post touches bogs down an offense that was once based on movement and smart passing.

Making the switch from Teague to Schroder looks like a premature decision, as the German floor general struggles with his starting role more than anyone anticipated. He turns the ball over too much, has problems converting when he drives the lane and fails to improve his perimeter touch.

The Hawks front office decides that the window has closed for this current group, putting Kyle Korver and Paul Millsap on the trade market to capitalize on their value while they can. Atlanta wins around 30-35 games, finishing somewhere in the middle of the draft lottery as they undergo a full-scale rebuild for the future.

Next: Predictions

Predictions

If everything goes according to plan, the Hawks will be a playoff team again in 2016-17. Unfortunately that’s a lot to ask for, which is why Atlanta may straddle the line between playoff hopefuls and full-scale rebuilders until it’s too late to achieve either one.

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Howard has missed at least 11 games in each of the last three seasons, and that trend is unlikely to improve now that he’s entering his age-31 season and has a history of back problems. Schroder is the point guard of the future for this franchise, but it’s hard to see him being ready to lead as early as this season.

Millsap is one of the game’s best two-way players, but he’s able to opt out of the final year of his deal after the upcoming season. Trading him — and Korver, who is already in the final year of his contract — could be the right move if the losses start piling on before the trade deadline and Atlanta fears losing them both in free agency for nothing.

Even if the Hawks don’t move one (or both) of Korver and Millsap, their lack of a reliable bench, Schroder’s growing pains and Howard’s health will probably be enough to limit them to 41 wins, the final playoff berth in the East and a quick, four-game playoff exit in the first round at the hands of — you guessed it — the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Next: NBA Predictions: 2016-17 Win Total Projections For All 30 Teams

Atlanta could very well shock the world and prove they’re still basically the same, semi-competitive team as last year, but downgrading at two starting positions makes that feel like a unreachable goal. More than likely, this team is heading for regression and, eventually, the full-scale rebuild Atlanta needs.