The Sacramento Kings have missed the playoffs for 10 straight seasons and have a superstar toiling away with no end in sight. Will 2016-17 be any different?
Coming off their 10th straight season in the lottery, the Sacramento Kings could use a change of pace. A franchise that’s become notorious for getting in its own way already has a franchise star in DeMarcus Cousins, but their inability to surround him with elite talent has limited the Kings to only one season of 30 or more wins since drafting Boogie back in 2010.
The arrival of head coach Dave Joerger represents a fresh start for the Kings, but their failures over the offseason — which have become all too familiar to the faithful fans of the silver and purple — represent a larger issue that has plagued the organization for years.
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Once upon a time, this mighty franchise was a legitimate challenge to the Kobe Bryant–Shaquille O’Neal Los Angeles Lakers dynasty of the early 2000s. Now, the Kings are stuck on an endless treadmill of bad decisions, resting easy only in the fact that they were smart enough to draft Cousins in the first place.
With Boogie toiling away on sorry teams and the front office no closer to putting this franchise back on the right course, it’s easy to wonder what will go wrong in Sacramento next. After failing to lure elite talent to the Kings once again this summer, a breaking point appears to be all too imminent.
Are the Kings doomed? Is Boogie on the way out? And did Sacramento really get that much worse compared to last season? Here’s a look at their 2016-17 season outlook and predictions.
2015-16 Vitals
33-49, 4th in Pacific Division, 10th in Western Conference
106.6 PPG (3rd)/109.1 OPP PPG (30th)
106.0 Offensive Rating (15th)/108.4 Defensive Rating (22nd)
Team Leaders
Scoring: DeMarcus Cousins, 26.9 PPG
Rebounding: DeMarcus Cousins, 11.5 RPG
Assists: Rajon Rondo, 11.7 APG
Steals: Rajon Rondo, 2.0 SPG
Blocks: DeMarcus Cousins, 1.4 BPG
Honors
All-NBA Second Team: DeMarcus Cousins
NBA All-Rookie Second Team: Willie Cauley-Stein
Next: Roster
2016-17 Roster
Arron Afflalo, SG
Matt Barnes, SF
Omri Casspi, SF
Willie Cauley-Stein, C
Darren Collison, PG
DeMarcus Cousins, C
Isaiah Cousins, PG
Jordan Farmar, PG
Rudy Gay, SF
Kosta Koufos, C
Skal Labissiere, PF
Ty Lawson, PG
Ben McLemore, SG
Eric Moreland, PF
Georgios Papagiannis, C
Lamar Patterson, SG
Malachi Richardson, SG
Garrett Temple, SG
Anthony Tolliver, PF
Offseason Additions
Arron Afflalo (free agency, New York Knicks), Matt Barnes (free agency, Memphis Grizzlies), Isaiah Cousins (59th overall draft pick, Oklahoma), Jordan Farmar (free agency, Memphis Grizzlies), Skal Labissiere (28th overall draft pick, Kentucky), Ty Lawson (free agency, Indiana Pacers), Georgios Papagiannis (13th overall draft pick, Panathinaikos {Greece}), Lamar Patterson (claimed off waivers), Malachi Richardson (22nd overall draft pick, Syracuse {via trade, Charlotte Hornets}), Garrett Temple (free agency, Washington Wizards), Anthony Tolliver (free agency, Detroit Pistons)
Offseason Subtractions
Quincy Acy (free agency, Dallas Mavericks), James Anderson (free agency, Darussafaka {Turkey}), Marco Bellineli (trade, Charlotte Hornets), Caron Butler (waived), Seth Curry (free agency, Dallas Mavericks), Duje Dukan (waived), Rajon Rondo (free agency, Chicago Bulls)
Quick Thoughts
Phew. Were you able to keep up with all those offseason changes that somehow made the Kings no better than they were last year? Because even if you weren’t, that’s still the main takeaway from Sacramento’s summer: The Kings are no better than they were last year.
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They got younger, sure. They added some solid talent in the draft, and even though Georgios Papagiannis was selected WAY too early, Sacramento made up for it by taking Skal Labissiere near the end of the first round, fleecing the Hornets for Malachi Richardson in the Marco Belinelli trade and scoring a future star shooting guard in Bogdan Bogdanovic, who will remain overseas for now.
However, as much as the Kings should be pushing for a rebuild, it’s hard to see it happening with DeMarcus Cousins still on board. This is a team that needed to make moves to either put a contender around him or fully commit to youth, and instead, the best they could manage was Arron Afflalo, Matt Barnes, Ty Lawson and Anthony Tolliver.
With Rajon Rondo gone, Darren Collison facing domestic violence charges and useful free agents like Quincy Acy and Seth Curry gone, Sacramento failed to get any better this summer. In fact, you could argue they got even worse outside of Boogie’s positive experience winning gold in the Olympics. Head coach Dave Joerger is going to have his hands full.
Next: Storyline 1: Center Logjam
Three Key Storylines: 1. Center Logjam
Georgios Papagiannis was not a terrible pick considering all the value Sacramento squeezed from the rest of its draft, but it was a perplexing one — not only because No. 13 was surprisingly high for the Greek center, but also because the Kings were adding another center to the roster.
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As of right now, the Kings have Cousins, Willie Cauley-Stein, Kosta Koufos AND Papagiannis at the center spot — and that’s without including the 6’11” Skal Labissiere, who could play minutes as a small-ball 5. While the rest of the league embraces small-ball, the Kings have now ensured centers make up nearly one-third of their roster.
Boogie is the franchise star, that much is clear. He showed a rudimentary ability to spread the floor all the way to three-point range last season, shooting 33.3 percent from downtown on 3.2 attempts per game. But Cousins still is at his best when operating down low, and none of Sacramento’s other centers can spread the floor.
WCS’ status as a future elite defender will make him easier to pair alongside Cousins in the frontcourt, but Papagiannis has zero range or experience, while Koufos is an aging center with limited mobility and shooting touch.
After signing Koufos and drafting Cauley-Stein last summer, adding Papagiannis — and even a value pick like Labissiere– leads to more questions than answers about what the hell Sacramento is trying to build. Best of luck to Joerger trying to sort this mess out.
Next: Storyline 2: What's Going On With Boogie?
Three Key Storylines: 2. What’s Going On With Boogie?
For years now, DeMarcus Cousins has been forcibly plopped on the trade block over and over, only for the front office to quash the rumors each and every time.
But given the front office’s inability to put a quality team around their franchise player, given Boogie’s temperament and his Herculean efforts year in and year out to carry a sorry team to 30 wins, and given how many centers occupy a spot on this roster now, the question needs to be asked: Are the Kings positioning themselves for a blockbuster Cousins trade?
It’s no secret there’s been frustration on both sides of this union. Though Boogie continues to crank out career years, he’s never made the playoffs. Joerger will be his sixth head coach in seven seasons, the only coach he ever saw eye-to-eye with was fired, and he once compared his time in Sacramento to God giving his hardest battles to only the strongest of warriors.
The Kings, meanwhile, have had to deal with a surly franchise star as renowned for his technical fouls and emotional outbursts as he is for his talent. With so much public unease on both sides, one has to wonder if the Kings are considering a complete roster rehaul centered around talented young players and future draft picks — the likely asking price in any trade talks for Boogie.
Unfortunately, the Kings have been desperate to return to the postseason as they’re going on 11 straight years without the playoffs. Perhaps Sacramento isn’t positioning itself for a trade; perhaps the front office legitimately thinks downgrading from Rondo, Curry and Acy to Collison, Lawson, Tolliver and Afflalo will actually get them back to the playoffs.
If — and when — the Kings fail to make the playoffs again in 2016-17, this ongoing DeMarcus Cousins soap opera will get dangerously close to its climax. With only two years left on his contract, the clock is already ticking towards an inevitable, messy breakup.
Over the next season or so, the pressure is on for the Kings to either make serious progress under Joerger or come to grips with the idea of trading Cousins before he walks in free agency in 2018.
Next: Storyline 3: Joerger Bomb?
Three Key Storylines: 3. Joerger Bomb
The best change the Kings made to their roster over the summer actually came with their coaching staff. By hiring former Memphis Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger, the Kings are putting the messy George Karl era behind them and — hopefully — making a commitment to the defensive end.
With the Grizz, Joerger was basically Deadpool with the way he constantly coaxed maximum effort out of a deformed body of players. With so many of them injured last season, the Grizzlies’ highly vaunted defense slipped to 19th in defensive rating, but in the two seasons before that, Memphis ranked in the top eight.
With Boogie showing more effort on that end and Cauley-Stein being a Defensive Player of the Year in the making, the Kings have the tools — in the frontcourt, at least — to be more respectable than the league’s 23rd ranked defense, which they were last season.
The question is whether Joerger can extract the same kind of defensive effort and know-how from a roster that no longer includes players with high basketball IQs like Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. Matt Barnes will bring the defensive energy, but other than that, Sacramento’s roster isn’t exactly tailor-made for defense.
There are also question marks on the offensive end. Going from Karl’s up-tempo offense to Joerger’s middle-tier offensive schemes means the Kings will once again be establishing a new identity, which could be problematic under an owner who wanted to put up points the way Karl did.
Joerger is an excellent coach, but he doesn’t have much to work with on this roster. The 2016-17 season will be a great test for him as he tries to extract a winning formula from an underwhelming bunch…and hopefully give DeMarcus Cousins more reason to stay loyal to Sacramento for the long-term.
Next: Best, Worst Case Scenarios
Best-Case Scenario
Joerger proves himself as the right man for the job in Sacramento, winning over DeMarcus Cousins and recalibrating a bottom-feeder defense into a middle-of-the-pack unit. The offensive slippage is noticeable, but with everyone buying in on the defensive end, the Kings are a surprise team out West.
Guys like Lawson, Barnes and a disgruntled Rudy Gay don’t cause any problems on or off the court, buying into Joerger’s plan to bring this franchise back to relevance. Cousins turns in the best season of his career, while Cauley-Stein morphs into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate overnight.
Ben McLemore regains his confidence under a new head coach, while Afflalo rediscovers his three-point touch. Darren Collison proves to be an adequate replacement for Rajon Rondo and the Kings shock the world by winning 44 games and sneaking into the playoffs as an eighth seed.
Worst-Case Scenario
Pretty much everything we’re all expecting. Joerger tries and fails to win over the entire locker room starting with DeMarcus Cousins, who once again looks longingly to Michael Malone in Denver as the only head coach he’s ever connected with.
The Boogie trade whispers grow louder and an embattled Cousins does little to shoot them down. Collison’s off-court problems catch up with him, Barnes and Afflalo look completely washed up, McLemore continues to look like a draft bust and WCS makes zero progress on the offensive end.
Rudy Gay starts stirring the pot with more controversial comments, the guys in the locker room turn against each other and Joerger quickly realizes this dysfunctional franchise is a whole ‘nother kind of monster. The Sacramento Kings fail to reach the 30-win mark and miss the playoffs for the 11th year in a row.
Next: Predictions
Predictions
As always, the truth will probably lie in between two extremes. While Joerger should be able to implement some positive changes in Sacramento’s culture and general success, this roster is still a hot mess outside of Boogie, Cauley-Stein and a couple of promising rookies who won’t have much of an impact in Year 1.
While it’d take a massively disappointing couple of months to prompt a DeMarcus Cousins trade at this year’s deadline, the day of reckoning is rapidly approaching. When Cousins hits free agency in 2018, he’ll need legitimate reasons to stick with the most dysfunctional organization in the NBA.
As of right now, it’s looking like the 2016-17 season won’t be able to provide him with very many. Joerger alone can’t turn this franchise around overnight, and barring some gargantuan leap in Willie Cauley-Stein’s game, the Kings more than likely got worse this summer.
Barnes and Afflalo add depth and experience, but it’s time for the front office to either go all in on trying to put a playoff team around Cousins or to capitalize on his value with a trade and start yet another rebuild. This summer, they straddled the line between the two and wound up falling flat.
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At the end of the day, another 30-win season seems in order, especially if Boogie misses double-digit games like he did last year. Joerger is a step in the right direction, but Cousins will more than likely spend another season toiling away for an organization incapable of getting him real help.