Portland Trail Blazers: 2016 Offseason Grades

After a summer spending spree to keep its young and surprisingly good core intact, here are the Portland Trail Blazers’ complete 2016 offseason grades.

The Portland Trail Blazers were the surprise team of the 2015-16 NBA season, and after a summer of mass spending to keep their young core intact, it appears that general manager Neil Olshey is fully buying into his squad’s potential.

Though Rip City only won 44 games last season, that was a great deal higher than most pundits expected from a team that, on paper, seemed far more likely to tank than to make it all the way to the second round of the playoffs.

And yet, with the Western Conference slacking near the bottom of the playoff field and the Blazers’ first round opponent being decimated by injuries, that’s exactly what happened. The question was whether Portland could build upon that startling success, and how.

It was a bit of a mixed bag for Olshey this time around, but there was one common trend with the Blazers’ summer: going all in on this current core. Here’s a look at Portland’s complete 2016 offseason grades.

Next: The Draft

The Draft

Thanks to the ill-fated Arron Afflalo trade from 2015, the Trail Blazers owed the Denver Nuggets their first round pick in this year’s draft. That pick turned out to be the 19th overall selection, Malik Beasley.

Afflalo, meanwhile, spent a grand total of 25 games in Portland, did little to replace the injured Wesley Matthews, and joined the New York Knicks in free agency last year before moving on to the Sacramento Kings this summer. Safe to say Rip City would like to have this one back.

In the second round, however, the Blazers got decent value with their pick at No. 47, taking Maryland’s Jake Layman. A 6’9″ small forward, Layman averaged 11.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game while shooting 39.6 percent from three-point range as a senior.

At 22 years old, he’s a bit old for an NBA rookie, but he’s an explosive athlete and a solid all-around defender who earned a four-year, partially guaranteed deal.

In NBA Summer League, Layman averaged 8.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game, and though he only shot 35 percent from the floor and 18.2 percent from three-point range, he also showcased some of that elite leaping ability when he put Marquese Chriss on a poster.

Layman may pan out as a rotational player who can space the floor, but he won’t be an immediate difference-maker for a team trying to build on its second round playoff appearance last year. To that end, that lack of a first-rounder because of the Afflalo trade hurts.

Grade: C-

Next: Nabbing Napier

Nabbing Napier

In a one-sided deal with the Orlando Magic, the Blazers acquired third string point guard Shabazz Napier in exchange for cash considerations. With Elfrid Payton, C.J. Watson and D.J. Augustin already on board, the Magic had no use for the rarely used youngster whose NBA career has yet to find traction.

Once drafted by the Miami Heat because of LeBron James‘ public support of his abilities, Napier has had a hard time living up to the hype. Now heading into his third NBA season with his third team, Napier holds career averages of 4.4 points and 2.1 assists per game on .361/.347/.762 shooting splits.

Last season in Orlando, Napier really struggled to carve out a role. Though he shot 36.4 percent from three-point range as a rookie, Napier’s long range accuracy plummeted to 32.7 percent in his new environment.

Portland will be hoping he can find some of that long range accuracy again, and Napier’s playing time may be dependent upon how well he can spread the floor, since C.J. McCollum often runs the point with the bench unit whenever Damian Lillard gets a break.

Napier may wind up being a draft bust, but all the Blazers had to give up was cash to swing a 25-year-old point guard who once dominated at the collegiate level. Perhaps there’s reason for hope in an environment where plenty of other young players have thrived recently.

Grade: B-

Next: Too Turnt For Turner

Too Turnt For Turner

When the Portland Trail Blazers lost four of their five starters last summer, general manager Neil Olshey eventually earned the benefit of the doubt for aiming young, with an unlikely bunch immediately clicking and making it all the way to the second round of the playoffs.

Sure, they had some help with the bottom of the West falling off, only needing 44 wins to earn the fifth seed in the playoffs and making it to the second round by the grace of season-ending injuries to both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. But the Blazers were still far more successful than anyone thought they’d be, and they had a young foundation to build upon moving forward.

Unfortunately, with a move like Evan Turner‘s four-year, $70 million contract, Olshey may have made the same mistake that general manager Ryan McDonough once made with his 48-win Phoenix Suns team in 2013-14: Buying too much into his team’s ability to compete in the here and now.

Though Al-Farouq Aminu had a career year in Rip City, averaging 10.2 points and 6.1 rebounds per game while providing steady defense on the wing, his 36.1 percent shooting from deep left something to be desired.

Instead of addressing that issue on the wing, however, Olshey turned to a playmaking 3 whose notable flaws (shooting, consistent defense) have somehow made him as underrated as his successful stint in Boston and new paycheck have made him overrated.

Throw in the fact that Aminu isn’t going anywhere and the Blazers matched a huge offer for restricted free agent Allen Crabbe and the question marks become hard to ignore.

Last season with the Celtics, Turner averaged 10.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game and served as a primary playmaker off the bench, but how will that work in Portland when Lillard (starters) and McCollum (second unit) fill similar roles?

How will he improve the Blazers’ spacing after he shot 24.1 percent from deep last season? Can Aminu hold his own for that long as a small-ball 4? Will Crabbe be able to spread the floor better than he did last year, when he shot 39.4 percent from downtown?

Turner deserved a pay raise, but getting paid $17.5 million a year would’ve been excessive for any team, let alone one where his fit and purpose remains unclear. Accelerating the rebuild with a signing like this could put Portland in the same sort of limbo the Suns fell into in 2014-15: too good to tank, but not good enough to build on their stunning success the year before.

Grade: D+

Next: Ezeli Portland's Best Move

Ezeli Portland’s Best Move

Evan Turner was easily Portland’s most inadvisable move, but signing Festus Ezeli to a two-year, $17.4 million deal was ezeli their most cost-effective.

In the 2016 NBA Finals (or, more accurately, the 2016 NBA Playoffs), Ezeli cost himself quite a bit of money with his underwhelming play. As he was coming back from injury, the dip in his regular season numbers — 7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.1 BPG dropped to 4.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG and 0.3 BPG — wound up damaging his free agency value.

Though he’s only 26 years old, none of Ezeli’s physical attributes has ever been put to their best use, whether due to recurring injuries or the presence of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green, who soaked up the majority of Golden State’s available minutes at the 5.

But with the Warriors going all-in on Kevin Durant, Ezeli had to be renounced and became an unrestricted free agent. Portland was able to pry him from the market, and did so with a deal WAYYYY below his true value.

After all, Ezeli looked the part of “NBA starting center” before he got injured last year, averaging 7.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game in 13 starts for an injured Bogut.

Mason Plumlee and/or Meyers Leonard might not be the answer at center, so having a high-upside player like Ezeli will pay dividends no matter what. Best-case scenario, Portland has a long-term solution at the 5 and he discovers his immense potential. Worst-case (non-injury) scenario, he protects the rim off the bench and Portland’s minor contract runs its course in two years.

Grade: A-

Next: Keeping Crabbe

Keeping Crabbe

When the Brooklyn Nets made a massive four-year, $75 million offer to restricted free agent Allen Crabbe, they were testing Olshey’s hand with an inflated deal. Much to their dismay, Portland matched the offer that will pay their backup wing an average annual salary of $18.8 million.

For a player who averaged 10.3 points per game and posted .459/.394/.867 shooting splits last year, that’s a massive pay raise, and one that likely wasn’t coming from the Blazers front office if not for Brooklyn’s offer.

At only 24 years old and coming off his third NBA season, Crabbe showed real signs of being a solid bench contributor for a young team on the rise. A career 38.4 percent shooter from long range, Crabbe’s floor-spacing and wing defense will be crucial for a second unit that doesn’t have the same star power as a starting unit with Lillard and McCollum.

However, this is an awfully large sum of money to commit to a good but not great reserve, especially in the wake of the Evan Turner deal…and the overall spending spree that Olshey would go on to keep his young core intact.

Grade: C+

Next: C.J. MaxCollum

C.J. MaxCollum

You thought Olshey was ready to roll out the big bucks for Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe? How about a four-year, $106 million extension for C.J. McCollum to preserve Portland’s backcourt for the long-term?

With yet another expensive, summer-defining move, the Blazers made sure the Lillard-McCollum partnership will continue for the extended future — a decision that comes with its fair share of pros and cons.

Rip City Project

On the plus side, McCollum is only 24 years old, he’s coming off a career-best season in which he averaged 20.8 points and 4.3 assists per game to earn Most Improved Player of the Year honors, and he can spread the floor and serve as a secondary playmaker (or primary playmaker with the second unit).

Last season, McCollum shot a career-best 41.7 percent from three-point range, and that was only his third year in the league — and first as a starter. There’s clearly potential still to be tapped, and he and Lillard serve as a potent 1-2 punch in the backcourt.

However, this deal is not perfect either. A $106 million deal is not ideal in the wake of Olshey’s mass summer spending spree, and the Blazers are betting a substantial amount of money on a young core that only won 44 games in a weaker Western Conference last year.

There’s also the defensive side of the ball to consider. Unless Ezeli evolves into the next Dikembe Mutombo, the Blazers may never be good enough defensively to contend, courtesy of a Lillard-McCollum backcourt pairing that struggles to keep its men in front of them.

At some point, the Blazers needed to make a decision on whether they believed a Lillard-McCollum partnership could contend. With this sizable extension that fits perfectly in line with Olshey’s summer of overspending, Portland put its faith in internal growth.

Grade: B

Next: Mo' For Mo

Mo’ For Mo

Maurice Harkless was one of Portland’s restricted free agents that many assumed could be pried away with the right offer from the right team. A max offer from a team like the Nets or Philadelphia 76ers seemed like it’d be enough to land someone like an Allen Crabbe or a Mo Harkless.

But when Olshey matched Brooklyn’s offer for Crabbe, nothing ever materialized for Harkless, giving Portland their opening to re-sign him to a four-year, $40 million deal.

A 23-year-old small forward coming off his first season in Portland, Harkless flashed some signs of potential under Terry Stotts, averaging 6.4 points and 3.6 rebounds in 18.7 minutes per game. He didn’t get too many minutes until the end of the season, but he was efficient, shooting 47.4 percent from the field. He also has the height and length to be a small-ball 4 in certain lineups.

In his 14 starts last year, Harkless put up 11.9 points and 6.6 rebounds per game on 50 percent shooting. However, he didn’t shoot the ball exceedingly well from three-point range, converting 27.9 percent of his attempts on the season.

Paying $10 million a season for a player with upside makes sense, but he’s also still on the fringe of the rotation. Under the microscope of all the other long-term money Olshey dished out on similarly unproven players with potential, it’s not exactly a slam dunk.

Grade: C-

Next: Meyers Making Money

Meyers Making Money

You get an extension! And you get an extension! AND YOU GET AN EXTENSION! Olshey was a regular Oprah Winfrey this summer, with Meyers Leonard’s four-year, $41 million deal being the next giveaway of Portland’s offseason.

Like Harkless, Leonard still has yet to prove himself as a starting-caliber player. Last year, he put up 8.4 points and 5.1 rebounds in 21.9 minutes per game (all career highs), shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from three-point range but starting in only 10 of his 61 games.

Unlike Harkless, however, there was a lot more evidence to support the merit of this kind of signing.

It wasn’t quite the C.J. McCollum-esque breakout season expected for the young stretch-4, especially after watching his mini-breakout in the playoffs the season before. He only has four years of NBA experience, but an early season injury derailed what seemed like Leonard’s inevitable starting job.

Having Leonard to bolster the bench is great, but like the vast majority of Portland’s signings this summer, the value of keeping an unproven player for around $10 million a year will largely depend on internal development.

Grade: C+

Next: Odds And Ends

Odds And Ends

Rounding out the Blazers’ expensive summer were two minor signings that are unlikely to affect the rotation in any way in 2016-17.

First up is Grant Jerrett, a 6’10” power forward originally drafted by Portland back in 2013 at No. 40. Jerrett has spent the last few years bouncing around the league (but mostly, D-League). He holds career averages of 2.0 points and 1.1 rebounds per game in his eight career NBA games, and was signed to a two-year, partially guaranteed deal.

Then there’s Tim Quarterman, a 6’6″ guard from LSU who went undrafted in this year’s draft but was able to suit up for the Charlotte Hornets’ Summer League squad. He averaged 5.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, shooting 37.5 percent from three-point territory.

The Blazers signed Quarterman to a three-year, partially guaranteed contract. Neither one will likely carve out a space in Stotts’ rotation, however.

Grade: C-

Next: Overall

Overall

If it feels like the Portland Trail Blazers spent a ton of money without actually getting much better this summer, that’s both the beauty and the concern with relying on internal growth.

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Sometimes you can build upon it; other times you’re the 2013-14 Phoenix Suns who hit their ceiling too soon and came crashing back down to earth.

Many are projecting a season of regression for Portland in 2016-17, which makes sense given the down year that the Western Conference just had. The Blazers’ playoff success last year wouldn’t have been possible without that, nor would they have had such an easy time advancing to the second round of the playoffs without those injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

Still, the Blazers made their living surprising people last season, and it’s possible a summer of internal growth and new contracts to keep the continuity intact will serve Portland well.

Unfortunately, the raw numbers are ugly no matter how you look at them, especially in light of Evan Turners’ massively bloated deal and quirky fit.

McCollum got $106 million. Turner got $70 million. Harkless and Leonard combined for $81 million. Crabbe earned $75 million. What began as an exercise in denoting essential roster parts to keep around for the future quickly snowballed into an all-out avalanche of cash.

Olshey deserved the benefit of the doubt heading into the summer, but you have to question whether he’s made the mistake of trying to accelerate this rebuild (i.e. signing Turner) or even worse, whether he’s drank too much of the Kool-Aid on how good some of these younger, relatively unproven players can be.

More hoops habit: Oklahoma City Thunder: 2016 Offseason Grades

It wasn’t a bad summer for the Blazers, but it wasn’t a very safe one either, with quite a few of these deals having the potential to be backbreakers down the road. Like last offseason, this mixed bag of summer overspending will either be validated or exposed by Portland’s 2016-17 season. Until then, a meager passing grade feels about right.

Grade: C