2016 NBA Playoffs: Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors

The Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors are set to square off in the second round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs, but what should we expect from the series?

It may have taken the longest to be decided, but we finally have our second Eastern Conference semifinals matchup as the Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors will open their second-round series Tuesday night.

Despite the two teams respectively having to outlast a seven-game series to meet each other, each team is entering the series in different fashion.

For the Heat, their offense propelled them to start their series and after losing three straight games (including one on their home court) to the Charlotte Hornets, it came through in the clutch that eventually set up a decisive, lopsided 106-73 victory in Game 7.

For the Raptors, they finally won their first playoff series since 2001 but they more or less limped to the finish line in a hard-fought series against the Indiana Pacers.

Can the Raptors make a statement and top the Heat in decisive fashion? What are the chances the Heat continue their success story of a season and make it to the Eastern Conference Finals?

Let’s take a look at all that and more by going through the matchups.

Likely Starting Lineups

Point Guard: Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. Kyle Lowry (TOR)

Without his electric performance in Game 7, there would be plenty of questions surrounding Goran Dragic right now.

Dragic had his fair share of inconsistent play for most of the series against the Hornets, but his 25-point performance (on 11-of-17 shooting) in Game 7 set a spark for the Heat’s offense, which led to them finishing off the Hornets for good.

Those questions, however, do revolve around Dragic’s matchup, Kyle Lowry.

No matter how much he plays down the concerns regarding his elbow, Lowry’s shot has been off for a month (and possibly counting) now as he shot 31-of-98 from the field and 7-of-43 from deep in the Raptors’ series against the Pacers. Despite that, Lowry has still made a way to impact the game, even when his shot hasn’t been falling.

Advantage: Miami

Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade (MIA) vs. DeMar DeRozan (TOR)

If it weren’t for his clutch shots at the end of Game 6 against the Hornets, Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat wouldn’t be here.

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Even though it was only one series, Wade has been building on what was already a fantastic playoff resume as he’s averaging 19 points (on 56-of-119 shooting), 5.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. Yes, he may be closer to the end of his career, but Wade’s still one tough matchup when he’s got it rolling.

The same can be said for DeMar DeRozan, but we just haven’t seen enough of that in the postseason.

More of an old school mid-range artist, DeRozan is coming off a miserable shooting series against the Pacers where he shot 44-of-138 (32 percent) from the field and 20-of-71 (28 percent) on mid-range shots. With that said, DeRozan had a tough matchup on him in Paul George and that certainly played a factor on DeRozan’s ineffectiveness.

Advantage: Miami

Small Forward: Joe Johnson (MIA) vs. DeMarre Carroll (TOR)

Since coming to Miami, Joe Johnson has remade himself into a nice complementary player.

He’s regained his shooting touch and it showed in the series against the Hornets since he shot 28-of-61 from the field and 10-of-23 from three-point range. Johnson’s presence, along with his shooting, has been a big reason why the Heat’s offense has transformed into a more modern and effective one.

While there were concerns about his status heading into the playoffs, DeMarre Carroll’s play has made those concerns slowly disappear.

Carroll’s no longer on a minutes restriction and while his offense has had trouble getting off the ground this postseason (Carroll averaged 8.6 points per game on 21-of-53 shooting), that was to be expected given the huge chunk of time Carroll missed prior to the playoffs.

Advantage: Push

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Power Forward: Luol Deng (MIA) vs. Patrick Patterson (TOR)

In terms of unexpected success stories during this year’s playoffs, the rejuvenation of Luol Deng has to be up there.

Deng’s shooting, specifically from beyond the arc, caused problems for the Hornets all series long (Deng averaged 19 points per game and shot 20-of-39 from deep) and he’s done exceptionally well playing at the 4 since the All-Star break.

Speaking of adjustments, Patrick Patterson being inserted in the starting lineup has been a long time coming.

It’s a small sample size, but the move hasn’t had the success like it had during the regular season, but that hasn’t been any of Patterson’s doing as he’s provided the spacing the Raptors have needed amidst their shooting troubles (Patterson shot 10-of-24 from deep in the series against the Pacers).

Advantage: Miami

Center: Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. Jonas Valanciunas (TOR)

While he’s certainly a polarizing figure, Hassan Whiteside has been exactly what the Heat need down low.

He’s certainly an excellent shot blocker (Whiteside averaged 3.4 blocks per game in the seven games against the Hornets), but his rebounding ability (Whiteside averaged 11.4 rebounds per game) on both ends of the floor was arguably the biggest difference maker in the series against the Hornets as the Heat won the rebounding battle in six of the seven games.

However, Jonas Valanciunas may be the perfect matchup to neutralize Whiteside’s contributions off the glass.

A strong rebounder in his own right, Valanciunas kept plays alive and feasted on second chance points as he averaged 4.7 second chance points in the series against the Pacers. But how involved Valanciunas is in the Raptors’ offense could be what swings the matchup from game to game.

Advantage: Push

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Sixth Man/Bench: Justise Winslow (MIA) vs. Cory Joseph (TOR)

They may be rookies, but both Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson haven’t had any rookie moments in this year’s playoffs.

Winslow and Richardson’s defensive versatility has been key to the Heat’s defensive success and a big reason why Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has stuck with them on the big stage. Yet, both players have struggled offensively, with Richardson’s struggles being the more surprising (Richardson shot 16-of-51 from the field and 10-of-28 from deep against the Hornets).

On the Raptors’ side, you could make an argument that if it weren’t for their bench, they wouldn’t be here.

The contributions the Raptors got from Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo and rookie Norman Powell really swung the team’s series against the Pacers and with tougher matchups in store, it’ll be interesting how all three respond in this series.

Advantage: Toronto

Coaching: Erik Spoelstra (MIA) vs. Dwane Casey (TOR)

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has done a marvelous job reinventing the Heat over the course of the regular season and it’s continued into the playoffs.

He’s thinned his rotation and more importantly, has started to trust Whiteside when he’s been struggling against his matchup or battling with foul trouble. He also has a tremendous advantage in experience over his counterpart and that could play a factor at some point in the series.

For Raptors head coach Dwane Casey, the monkey may be off his and the Raptors’ back, but questions still remain for him in the playoffs.

There’s been many factors for why the Raptors offense has been a shadow of itself so far that has been out of Casey’s control, but Casey’s game management has been troubling to say the least in the playoffs.

Advantage: Miami

Key Matchup: Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. Jonas Valanciunas/Bismack Biyombo (TOR)

There’s plenty of good matchups in this series, but the big man matchup between Whiteside and the combination of Valanciunas/Biyombo could define the series.

On paper, the size and strength of both Valanciunas and Biyombo pose to cause problems for Whiteside, with Valanciunas’ in particular being problematic due to his offensive skill set and brute strength.

While Whiteside did have a fantastic series against the Hornets, his foul trouble caused problems for the Heat as their depth behind Whiteside leaves a lot to be desired.

However, the Raptors strayed from posting up Valanciunas in their series against the Pacers (Valanciunas went 5-of-9 on plays when he posted up) and if that were to continue against the Heat, Whiteside may be in the clear.

The rebounding battle, especially on the offensive glass, has already been a key reason why both teams advanced to where they are now and whoever ends up out on top of the boards from game to game already has a significant advantage.

Miami Will Win If…

They continue their hot shooting from deep and Whiteside stays out of foul trouble.

Toronto Will Win If…

They win the rebounding battle and their backcourt regains their shooting stroke.

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Prediction:

The Miami Heat defeat the Toronto Raptors 4-3.